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From: To: Cc:

Subject: Date:

RST01 Hoc Trapp, James Ward, Leonard; RST01 Hoc Conditional Containment Failure Probability Monday, March 14, 2011 9:24:25 PM

Conditional Containment Failure Probability, per your request.

Date/Time: 03/14/2011 21:17:52 (ET) Position: RST Accident Seq Analyst


Name: Leonard Ward

Record: 11387 Information for Jim Trapp Jeff circle has passed on some information for from the J.A. Fitzpatrick IPE PRA as follows: Drywell failure probability with DW at > 30 psig, high H2 concentration and deflagration burn = - 0.61 Drywell failure probability with DW at > 30 psig, medium h2 concentration and deflagration burn = -0.057 Drywell failure probability with high DW pressure,low RPV pressure = Pedestal melt thru given drywell and superheated debris
-

0.016

0.84

Some of these are related to the conditions at Fukushima; long term station blackout, complete loss of decay heat removal, loss of injection and no containment venting. If they vent containment and not ignite H2, the failure probability drops off significantly. These will be checked with NUREG/CR-4550.

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