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By Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies Research
Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey of likely Republican primary election voters in North Carolina’s 7th Congressional District. The survey was conducted March 7-9, 2012, and included 755 respondents. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.54 percentage points.
The telephone survey of likely Republican Primary Election voters in North Carolina’s newly re-drawn 7th Congressional District shows that Ilario Pantano, the party’s nominee in the race two years ago, is well-positioned to win that title once again. The poll shows he is far and away the best-known among the three GOP candidates in the field and enjoys a strongly positive image among likely voters. Pantano wins 47% support in a head-to-head-to-head ballot test against David Rouzer and Randy Crow, the other two candidates who have filed in the race. Rouzer runs in second place, winning 23% support, while Crow is favored by just 2% of likely voters. Another 28% said they are yet undecided in the race which culminates with the May 8 primary election. More than half of likely voters – 53% - said they have a favorable opinion of Pantano, while 13% said they have a negative opinion of him. One-third of those surveyed – 34% - said they don’t know enough about Pantano to have formed an opinion about him. The more conservative the likely voter, the more likely they were to hold a favorable opinion of Pantano. Among TEA Party conservatives, 56% had a favorable opinion of him, compared to 50% of non-TEA Party conservatives who had a positive opinion of him. Among political moderates, 47% said they held a positive opinion of Pantano. Pantano leads by wide margins in all ideological categories. He leads 41% to 19% for Rouzer among moderates, by a 42% to 25% margin over Rouzer among non-TEA Party conservatives, and by a 51% to 24% margin over Rouzer among TEA Party conservatives.
Q. If the election for the Republican nomination for Congress in our local area was today, and the candidates were Ilario Pantano, David Rouzer, and Randy Crow, for whom would you vote?
Frequency PANTANO ROUZER CROW UNDECIDED Total 353 177 17 208 755 Percent 46.8 23.4 2.3 27.5 100.0 Valid Percent 46.8 23.4 2.3 27.5 100.0 Cumulative Percent 46.8 70.2 72.5 100.0