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PA-12 Anzalone Liszt for Jason Altmire (March 2012)

PA-12 Anzalone Liszt for Jason Altmire (March 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Mar 16, 2012
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03/16/2012

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March 15, 2012 To: Interested Parties Fr: Anzalone Liszt Research Re: Summary of Primary Election Tracking Poll Results in Pennsylvania CD-12 Since

January, Jason Altmire has increased his lead in the Democratic primary for the newly-drawn 12th CD in Pennsylvania. Critz’s attempt to decide the election via a lawsuit has backfired on him, and Altmire has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50% Altmire / 34% Critz) to a 24-point lead today (55% Altmire / 31% Critz). Altmire has grown his lead by 8 points and has made big gains with his current constituents. • Altmire has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50% Altmire / 34% Critz) to a 24-point lead today (55% Altmire / 31% Critz). Much of these gains came among voters who live in Altmire’s current district. Among these Democrats, who make up 64% of the likely primary electorate, his lead has grown from 49 points (66% Altmire / 17% Critz) to 61 points (73% Altmire / 12% Critz).

Critz’s legal tactics have driven up his negatives, especially among Altmire’s current constituents. • Voters who said they were following the lawsuit story very closely were turned off by Critz’s tactics. 49% of them say they believe Critz was “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful”, while 45% disagreed. Altmire’s constituents were also against Critz trying to deny their current Congressman the ballot through the courts. 40% say they believe Critz was “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful”, while 33% disagreed. Critz’s legal tactics have damaged him among voters in Altmire’s current district. o His unfavorable rating among them has gone from 6% in January to 17% today. o At the same time, his favorable rating among them has remained unchanged at 21%.

Altmire’s own popularity has increased at the same time Critz’s negatives have gone up. • Altmire’s standing among voters has improved since our last poll, from 57% favorable / 17% unfavorable in January to 64% favorable / 15% unfavorable today. Altmire’s intense positive ratings have increased and are now significantly higher than Critz’s. o In January, 18% of voters viewed Altmire very favorably, compared with 15% for Critz. o Today, 28% of voters view Altmire very favorably, compared with 19% for Critz.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 Primary Election voters in PA CD-12. Interviews were conducted between March 12-14, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. The margin of error is + 4.9% for all voters and higher for subgroups.

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