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8.1 Introduction Production decline analysis is a traditional means of identifying well production problems and predicting well performance and life based on real production data. It uses empirical decline models that have little fundamental justifications. These models include • Exponential decline (constant fractional decline) • Harmonic decline, and • Hyperbolic decline. While the hyperbolic decline model is more general, the other two models are degenerations of the hyperbolic decline model. These three models are related through the following relative decline rate equation (Arps, 1945): 1 dq = −bq d q dt (8.1)

where b and d are empirical constants to be determined based on production data. When d = 0, Eq (8.1) degenerates to an exponential decline model, and when d = 1, Eq (8.1) yields a harmonic decline model. When 0 < d < 1, Eq (8.1) derives a hyperbolic decline model. The decline models are applicable to both oil and gas wells. 8.2 Exponential Decline The relative decline rate and production rate decline equations for the exponential decline model can be derived from volumetric reservoir model. Cumulative production expression is obtained by integrating the production rate decline equation. 8.2.1 Relative Decline Rate Consider an oil well drilled in a volumetric oil reservoir. Suppose the well’s production rate starts to decline when a critical (lowest permissible) bottom hole pressure is reached. Under the pseudo-steady state flow condition, the production rate at a given decline time t can be expressed as: q= kh( pt − p c ) wf ⎡ ⎛ 0.472re 141.2 B0 μ ⎢ln⎜ ⎜ ⎣ ⎝ rw ⎞ ⎤ ⎟ + s⎥ ⎟ ⎠ ⎦ (8.2)

where pt

p

c wf

= average reservoir pressure at decline time t, = the critical bottom hole pressure maintained during the production decline.

**The cumulative oil production of the well after the production decline time t can be expressed as:
**

8-1

Np = ∫

0

t

kh( pt − p c ) wf ⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤ ⎟ + s⎥ 141.2 Bo μ ⎢ln⎜ ⎜ ⎟ ⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦

dt

(8.3)

The cumulative oil production after the production decline upon decline time t can also be evaluated based on the total reservoir compressibility:

Np =

ct N i ( p 0 − pt ) Bo

(8.4)

where ct = total reservoir compressibility, N i = initial oil in place in the well drainage area,

**p 0 = average reservoir pressure at decline time zero.
**

Substituting Eq (8.3) into Eq (8.4) yields:

∫

0

t

kh( pt − p c ) wf ⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤ ⎟ + s⎥ 141.2 Bo μ ⎢ln⎜ ⎜ r ⎟ w ⎝ ⎠ ⎦ ⎣

dt =

ct N i ( p 0 − pt ) Bo

(8.5)

Taking derivative on both sides of this equation with respect to time t gives the differential equation for reservoir pressure:

kh( pt − p c ) wf ⎡ ⎛ 0.472re 141.2μ ⎢ln⎜ ⎜ ⎣ ⎝ rw ⎞ ⎤ ⎟ + s⎥ ⎟ ⎠ ⎦

= −ct N i

dp t dt

(8.6)

Since the left-hand-side of this equation is q and Eq (8.2) gives

dq = dt

dp t ⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤ dt ⎟ + s⎥ 141.2 B0 μ ⎢ln⎜ ⎟ ⎜ r w ⎠ ⎦ ⎝ ⎣ kh

(8.7)

**Eq (8.6) becomes ⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤ ⎟ + s⎥ − 141.2ct N i μ ⎢ln⎜ ⎟ ⎜ r w ⎠ ⎦ dq ⎝ ⎣ q= kh dt
**

8-2

(8.8)

11) can be integrated − ∫ bdt = 0 t pt p0 ∫ (p dpt c t − p wf ) (8.2 Bo μ ⎢ln⎜ ⎜ r ⎟ w ⎝ ⎠ ⎦ ⎣ e −bt (8.2 Production Rate Decline Equation (8...10) 8.16) q q 2 q3 = = .2..or the relative decline rate equation of 1 dq = −b q dt (8. Eq (8. In practice.12) to yield an equation for reservoir pressure decline: pt = p c + p0 − p c wf wf ( )e −bt (8.15) is used: q = qi e −bt where qi is the production rate at t = 0. (8.11) By separation of variables.14) or q= bct N i ( p0 − p c ) e −bt wf Bo (8. = n = e −b .15) which is the exponential decline model commonly used for production decline analysis of solution-gas-drive reservoirs. It can be shown that (8.13) into Eq (8..472re 141. the following form of Eq (8.2) gives well production rate decline equation: q= kh( p0 − p c ) wf ⎡ ⎛ 0. the fractional decline is constant q1 q2 qn−1 8-3 .472re ⎞ ⎤ ⎟ + s⎥ 141..6) can be expressed as: − b( pt − p c ) = wf dpt dt (8. That is.13) Substituting Eq (8.2 μct N i ⎢ln⎜ ⎜ ⎣ ⎝ rw ⎞ ⎤ ⎟ + s⎥ ⎟ ⎠ ⎦ .9) where b= kh ⎡ ⎛ 0.

2.23) If production rate and cumulative production data are available. Picking up any two points.16) over time gives an expression for the cumulative oil production since decline of N p = ∫ qdt = ∫ qi e −bt dt 0 0 t t (8.18) becomes Np = 1 (qi − q ) . As an exercise. rearranging Eq (8. (t1. 8..22) b= ⎛q 1 ln ⎜ 1 (t 2 − t1 ) ⎜ q 2 ⎝ ⎞ ⎟.21) ln (q 2 ) = ln (q i ) − bt 2 give (8.3 Cumulative Production Integration of Eq (8. If production rate and time data are available. the b-value can be obtained based on the slope of the straight line on a semi-log plot. In fact.17) i. b (8. Np = qi 1 − e −bt .20) which implies that the data should form a straight line with a slope of -b on the log(q) versus t plot. the b-value can be obtained based on the slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot.19) 8. Eq (8.16) gives: ln (q ) = ln (q i ) − bt (8. on the straight line will allow analytical determination of b-value because ln (q1 ) = ln (q i ) − bt 1 and (8.for exponential decline.18) Since q = qi e − bt .19) yields: 8-4 . this is left to the reader to prove. Its value can be determined from production history data. q1) and (t2.e. b ( ) (8. taking logarithm of Eq (8. In fact.4 Determination of Decline Rate The constant b is called the continuous decline rate. q2). ⎟ ⎠ (8.2. if exponential decline is the right model.

.2.25) q 2 = q i − bN p 2 give (8. q1) and (Np2. e ≈ 1 − b holds true for small values of b. traditionally the −x effective decline rate has been used. and b' d are annual. the b' can have different units such as month-1 and year1 . in field applications.5 Effective Decline Rate (8.q = qi − bN p (8. The b is substituted by b' . The following relation can be derived: ba = 12 bm = 365 bd . q2).28) Because the exponential function is not easy to use in hand calculations. monthly.29) Again.30) 8-5 . and daily decline rates. The following relation can be derived: (1 − b 'a ) = (1 − b 'm )12 = (1 − b 'd )365 . the b can have different units such as month-1 and year-1. = n = 1 − b' . the effective decline rate..27) Depending on the unit of time t. where ba. (Np1. Thus Eq (8. 8.16) becomes q = qi (1− b') t (8. it can be shown that q q 2 q3 = = . N p 2 − N p1 (8.26) b= q1 − q 2 . where b' a. on the straight line will allow analytical determination of b-value because q1 = q i − bN p1 and (8. monthly.. (8. and daily effective decline rates.. b' m. Since e ≈ 1 − x for small x-values based on −b Taylor’s expansion.. q1 q 2 qn −1 Depending on the unit of time t. bm.24) Picking up any two points. and bd are annual.

27 stb/day If the effective decline rate b’ is used. b' m = From 1 − b' y = (1 − b' m ) = (1 − 0.Example Problem 8-1: Given that a well has declined from 100 stb/day to 96 stb/day during a one-month period.3875/year Rate at end of one year q1 = q0 (1 − b' y ) = 100(1 − 0. Solution: a) Production rate after 11 more months: bm = (t1m ⎛q 1 ln ⎜ 0 m − t 0 m ) ⎜ q1 m ⎝ ⎞ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 100 ⎞ = ⎜ ⎟ ln⎜ ⎟ = 0.04 ) 12 12 q0 m − q1m 100 − 96 = = 0.04 /month .27 stb/day b) The amount of oil produced during the first year: 8-6 .04082(12 ) = 61.3875) = 61. 100 q0 m one gets b' y = 0.04082/month ⎝ 1 ⎠ ⎝ 96 ⎠ Rate at end of one year q1m = q0 m e −bmt = 100e −0. use the exponential decline model to perform the following tasts: a) Predict the production rate after 11 more months b) Calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year c) Project the yearly production for the well for the next 5 years.

04082(12 )( 4) = 14.001342 q 4 = qi e −bt = 100e −0.00 (1 − e −0.001342(365) ) = 10.858 stb by ⎝ 0.00 stb/day N p.1 = 100 1 − e −0.001342 q3 = qi e − bt = 100e −0.54 (1 − e −0.4 = 23.834 stb 0.42 ⎠ N p .1 = q0 − q1 ⎛ 100 − 61.639 stb 0.001342(365) ) = 6.27 ⎞ =⎜ ⎟365 = 28.04082(12) = 0.061 stb 0.001342 q2 = qi e −bt = 100e −0.04082(12 )( 2 ) = 37.001342 ( ) c) Yearly production for the next 5 years: N p.09 (1 − e −0.001342 day ⎣ ⎝ 96 ⎠⎦⎝ 30.54 stb/day N p .001342(365) ) = 4.001342(365) ) = 17.48986/year N p .858 stb 0.001342 (365 ) = 28.04082(12 )( 3) = 23.27 (1 − e −0.b y = 0.48986 ⎠ or ⎡ ⎛ 100 ⎞⎤⎛ 1 ⎞ 1 bd = ⎢ln⎜ ⎟⎥⎜ ⎟ = 0.2 = 61.3 = 37.001342 In summary.681 stb 0.09 stb/day N p .5 = 14. 8-7 .

061 68.681 10.64 Yearly Production (stb) 28.858 17.09 8.00 61.31) q= (8.33) Combining Eqs (8.073 8.Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 Rate at End of Year (stb/day) 100.27 37.639 4. Eq (8.33) gives Np = q0 [ln(q0 ) − ln(q )] . b (8. Expression for the cumulative production is obtained by integration: N p = ∫ qdt 0 t which gives: Np = q0 ln(1 + bt ) .834 6.1) yields differential equation for a harmonic decline model: 1 dq = −bq q dt which can be integrated as q0 1 + bt (8. b (8.54 23.32) and (8.3 Harmonic Decline When d = 1.32) where q0 is the production rate at t = 0.00 14.34) 8-8 .

⎢ b(a − 1) ⎢ ⎝ a ⎠ ⎥ ⎣ ⎦ (8. If the plot of q versus Np shows a straight line (Figure 8-2). the hyperbolic 8-9 . the decline data follow a harmonic decline model.4 Hyperbolic Decline When 0 < d < 1. the decline data follow an exponential decline model. If the plot of log(q) versus log(t) shows a straight line (Figure 8-3).39) 8.24).34).37) and (8.36) q= q0 ⎛ b ⎞ ⎜1 + t ⎟ ⎝ a ⎠ a (8.38) Combining Eqs (8. according to Eq (8.37) where a = 1/d.32). according to Eq (8. integration of Eq (8.38) gives Np = a ⎡ ⎛ b ⎞⎤ ⎢ q 0 − q ⎜1 + a t ⎟ ⎥ . If no straight line is seen in these plots.35) q= or q0 (1+ dbt )1/ d (8.1) gives: dq ∫ q1+d = −∫ bdt 0 q0 which results in q t (8.5 Model Identification Production data can be plotted in different ways to identify a representative decline model.20). according to Eq (8. b(a − 1) ⎣ ⎠⎦ ⎝ (8. an exponential decline model should be adopted. If the plot of log(q) versus t shows a straight line (Figure 8-1).8. If the plot of Np versus log(q) shows a straight line (Figure 8-4). the harmonic decline model should be used. Expression for the cumulative production is obtained by integration: N p = ∫ qdt 0 t which gives: Np = 1− a aq0 ⎡ ⎛ b ⎞ ⎤ 1 − ⎜1 + t ⎟ ⎥ . according to Eq (8.

Figure 8-5 shows such a plot. q t Figure 8-1: A Semilog plot of q versus t indicating an exponential decline Np q Figure 8-2: A plot of Np versus q indicating an exponential decline 8-10 .1).exe. This work can be easily performed with computer program UcomS.decline model may be verified by plotting the relative decline rate defined by Eq (8.

q t Figure 8-3: A plot of log(q) versus log(t) indicating a harmonic decline Np q Figure 8-4: A plot of Np versus log(q) indicating a harmonic decline 8-11 .

For the harmonic decline model. the b-value can be estimated on the basis of the slope of the straight line in the plot of log(q) versus t (Eq 8.32): q0 −1 q1 b= t1 (8.27). For the hyperbolic decline model. or Eq (8.34).40) The b-value can also be estimated based on the slope of the straight line in the plot of Np versus log(q) (Eq 8. For the exponential decline model. the model parameters a and b can be determined by fitting the data to the selected model.6 Determination of Model Parameters Once a decline model is identified.− Δq qΔt Ha D n ic r mo ne ecli olic Dec Hyperb line Exponential Decline q Figure 8-5: A plot of relative decline rate versus production rate 8. 8-12 .23). determination of a.and b-values is of a little tedious. The b-value can also be determined based on the slope of the straight line in the plot of q versus Np (Eq 8. the b-value can be estimated on the basis of the slope of the straight line in the plot of log(q) versus log(t) shows a straight line. The procedure is shown in Figure 8-6.

00 18.34 122.00 12.00 16.82 670.59 449.13 201.00 8.68 165.00 7.00 3.80 100.57 135.00 20. determine model parameters. Table 8-1: Production Data for Example Problem 8-2 t (Month) q (STB/D) 1.00 11.53 548.00 22. identify a suitable decline model.00 272.00 5. Select points (t1.00 904.88 332.00 15.00 21.00 17.00 2.87 301. Calculate ⎜ ⎟ = 1 2 2 t3 − t1t2 ⎝a⎠ 4.00 9. 8.1.73 740.81 496.32 606.60 223.90 182.00 14.30 149.00 6.00 19.7 Illustrative Examples Example Problem 8-2: For the data given in Table 8-1. and project production rate until a marginal rate of 25 stb/day is reached.46 110.00 4.and b-values Computer program UcomS. Finally ⎛b⎞ b = ⎜ ⎟a ⎝a⎠ t3 t Figure 8-6: Procedure for determining a.72 8-13 . q2) 2.00 23.33 406. as well as production rate prediction.84 818.00 10. q*) 2 ⎛ b ⎞ t + t − 2t3 3. Pick up any point (t*.19 t (Month) q (STB/D) 13. q*) 6. q1) and (t2.53 246.00 24.57 367. Use q* = q0 ⎛ ⎛b⎞ ⎞ ⎜1 + ⎜ ⎟t* ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎝a⎠ ⎠ a ⎛q ⎞ log⎜ 0 ⎟ ⎜q ⎟ ⎝ *⎠ a= ⎛ ⎛b⎞ ⎞ log⎜1 + ⎜ ⎟t* ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎝a⎠ ⎠ 7.exe can be used for both model identification and model parameter determination.26 90. Find q0 at t = 0 5. Read t3 at q3 = q1q2 q 1 q3 (t*.

This is further evidenced by the relative decline rate shown in Figure 8-8. Select points on the trend line: t1= 5 months. the exponential decline model is applicable.1 1/month (5 − 20 ) ⎝ 607 ⎠ 10000 Projected production rate profile is shown in Figure 8-9.Solution: A plot of log(q) versus t is presented in Figure 8-7 which shows a straight line. q2 = 135 STB/D Decline rate is calculated with Eq (8.20). q1 = 607 STB/D t2= 20 months. According to Eq (8. 1000 q (STB/D) 100 10 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 t (month) 8-14 .23): b= 1 ⎛ 135 ⎞ ln ⎜ ⎟ = 0 .

13 -1 -Δ q/Δ t/q (Month ) 0.1 0. 8-15 .11 0.07 0.Figure 8-7: A plot of log(q) versus t showing an exponential decline 0. determine model parameters.05 3 203 403 603 803 1003 q (STB/D) Figure 8-8: Relative decline rate plot showing exponential decline 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 10 20 30 40 q (STB/D) t (month) Figure 8-9: Projected production rate by an exponential decline model Example Problem 8-3: For the data given in Table 8-2.12 0.08 0. and project production rate till the end of the 5th year.06 0. identify a suitable decline model.09 0.15 0.14 0.

29 8.30 3.68 8.08 5.10 1.14 7. On the trend line.34 5.44 4.67 7.000 −1 5. 8-16 .05 6.80 2.09 4.30 0.68 t (year) q (1000 STB/D) 2.10 2.94 5.40) gives: 10.20 1.40 8.76 4.00 1.Table 8-2: Production Data for Example Problem 8-3 t (year) q (1000 STB/D) 0.680 stb/day at t = 2 years Therefore.03 Solution: A plot of relative decline rate is shown in Figure 8-10 which clearly indicates a harmonic decline model.90 2.80 1. Eq (8.45 7.13 5.56 5.80 0.20 0.70 2.000 stb/day at t = 0 q1 = 5.680 b= = 0.90 3.37 6.81 5.53 6.10 3.87 6.30 1.22 4.60 3.00 3.40 2.38 1/year .98 8.50 3.69 6.40 1.60 0.20 2.90 5.50 2.70 0.94 4.45 5.22 6.25 7.30 2.90 7.23 5.60 1.16 4.51 4. select q0 = 10.67 4.03 4.60 2.50 0.40 0.40 3.36 4.29 4. 2 Projected production rate profile is shown in Figure 8-11.70 3.00 9.80 3.20 3.90 1.70 1.59 4.84 4.50 1.

00 5.0 4.25 0. Solution: A plot of relative decline rate is shown in Figure 8-12 which clearly indicates a hyperbolic decline model.00 7.00 6.0 1.0 3. and project production rate till the end of the 5th year.00 10.00 8.1 3.4 0.00 q (1000 STB/D) Figure 8-10: Relative decline rate plot showing harmonic decline 12 10 q (1000 STB/D) 8 6 4 2 0 0.0 2. Select points: 8-17 .0.35 -Δq/Δt/q (year-1) 0.15 0.0 t (year) Figure 8-11: Projected production rate by a harmonic decline model Example Problem 8-4: For the data given in Table 8-3.0 5.0 6. determine model parameters.3 0.00 4.00 9. identify a suitable decline model.2 0.

87 6.20 1.77 5.280 ⎠ a= = 1. q* = 6.80 0.30 0.95 8.60 0.97 3.90 3.88 3.55 7.75) = 0.20 2.490) = 5.000 stb/day at t0 = 0.56 3.15 4.10 1.10 2.80 1.2)(3.05 4.32 t (year) q (1000 STB/D) 2.09 6.70 1.t1 = 0. q1 = 9.280 stb/day t2 = 3.57 4.60 2.63 9.70 3.50 3.68 4.81 7.18 5.30 3.28 6. ⎛ b ⎞ 0.40 2.70 2.8 − 2(1.30 1. ⎛ 10.280)(3.00 9.8) Read from decline curve (Figure 8-13) q0 = 10.40 3.30 2.70 0.490 stb/day q3 = (9.00 1.670 stb/day Read from decline curve (Figure 8-13) t3 = 1.217 )(1.40 0.38 Projected production rate profile is shown in Figure 8-14.75 log(1 + (0.80 3.60 1.35 8.20 0.280 stb/day).50 0.67 6.10 5.80 3.000 ⎞ log⎜ ⎟ ⎝ 6.64 3.28 8.25 4.00 3.90 2.80 4. Pick up point (t* = 1.10 3. Table 8-3: Production Data for Example Problem 8-4 t (year) q (1000 STB/D) 0.60 3.80 2.93 5.00 5.20 3.49 3.75) − (0.71 3.46 4.217 )(1.61 5.64 8.41 3.4 yesrs.8 years.90 1.217 ⎜ ⎟= 2 ⎝ a ⎠ (1.92 4.2 year .06 3. q2 = 3.2 + 3.75 yaers at q3 = 5.758) = 0.50 2.4) ) b = (0.47 6.670 stb/day.10 0.40 1.35 4.46 5.90 4.50 1.32 7.34 8-18 .07 7.

00 9.2 3.34 -Δq/Δt/q (year-1) 0.0 3.00 6.32 0.00 4.26 0.0 1.22 0.0 t (year) Figure 8-13: Relative decline rate plot showing hyperbolic decline 8-19 .00 7.00 10.0.00 8.28 0.38 0.36 0.0 5.3 0.24 0.00 5.0 4.0 2.00 q (1000 STB/D) Figure 8-12: Relative decline rate plot showing hyperbolic decline 12 10 q (1000 STB/D) 8 6 4 2 0 0.

and project production rate till the end of the 10th year. 516-519. M. M. 1994. Economides. and Whitson. Prentice Hall PTR. model parameter determination.exe can be used for model identification. Problems 8. 160.0 4.0 1. Hill.D. determine model parameters.. 1945. Computer program UcomS. and Ehlig-Economides.0 6.0 t (year) Figure 8-14: Projected production rate by a hyperbolic decline model * Summary * * * * This chapter presented empirical models and procedure of using the models to perform production decline data analyses. Predict yearly oil productions: 8-20 . International Human Resource Development Corp.0 3.M. 228-247.1 For the data given in the following table. C.0 5. Upper Saddle River. Golan.. 122-125. A.” Trans.0 2. C. AIME.: Well Performance.12 10 q (1000 STB/D) 8 6 4 2 0 0.: “ Analysis of Decline Curves.J. and production rate prediction. J..: Petroleum Production Systems.J. References Arps. identify a suitable decline model. 1986.

3 0.23 5.56 5.9 3 3.8 2.87 6.5 0.4 8.68 8.03 4.2 0.3 2.9 7.5 2.13 5.2 For the data given in the following table.05 6.4 0.1 2.6 0.8 0.2 2.67 4.Time (year) 0.3 3.59 4.1 1.8 1.4 Production Rate (1.69 6.6 1.37 6.7 1.4 1.76 4.9 1 1.45 7.08 5.6 2.45 5.29 8.98 8.000 stb/day) 9.3 1. and the reverses to be recovered before the marginal production rate is reached: 8-21 .44 4.1 3. predict the time when the production rate will decline to a marginal value of 500 stb/day. determine model parameters.1 0.9 2 2.25 7.68 5.84 4.81 5.94 4.51 4.7 2.7 0.94 5.5 1.67 7.34 5.2 1.2 3.36 8.53 6. identify a suitable decline model.63 9.4 2.14 7.22 6.

77 5.9 3 3.1 3.35 4.25 4.61 5.3 1.6 0.46 4.55 7.6 2.4 2.1 1.88 3.3 For the data given in the following table.68 4.1 2.15 4.2 1.1 0.7 2.97 3.1 5.92 4.32 7.64 8.7 0.5 0.8 0.07 7.5 2.2 3.95 8. and the reverses to be recovered before the marginal production rate is reached: 8-22 . identify a suitable decline model.9 1 1.28 6.28 8.06 3.8 2.57 4.9 2 2.35 8.4 1.2 0.4 0.5 1.93 5.05 4.87 6.46 5.7 1.8 4.18 5.63 9.3 2.3 3.81 7.32 5. predict the time when the production rate will decline to a marginal value of 50 Mscf/day.09 6.4 Production Rate (stb/day) 9.47 6.6 1.3 0. determine model parameters.67 6.8 1.8 8.2 2.Time (year) 0.

73 740. predict the time when the production rate will decline to a marginal value of 50 stb/day.4 For the data given in the following table.13 201.46 110.3 149. and yearly oil productions: Time (Month) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Production Rate (stb/day) 1810 1637 1482 1341 1213 1098 993 8-23 .72 8.9 182.32 606.81 496.19 272.57 135. determine model parameters.68 165.Time (Month) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Production Rate (Mscf/day) 904.26 90.8 100.53 246.59 449.84 818.87 301.34 122.53 548.6 223.57 367.82 670.33 406. identify a suitable decline model.88 332.

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 899 813 736 666 602 545 493 446 404 365 331 299 271 245 222 201 181 8-24 .

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