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Provincial Election Poll Results - March 29, 2012

Provincial Election Poll Results - March 29, 2012

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Published by edmontonjournal
New polling data, released March 29, 2012, suggests Albertans are generally satisfied with the Redford government's handling of most major issues, however, the Tories get failing marks on health care, while Albertans are divided on whether the province runs an open and honest government. The poll was conducted by Leger Marketing and commissioned by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald.
New polling data, released March 29, 2012, suggests Albertans are generally satisfied with the Redford government's handling of most major issues, however, the Tories get failing marks on health care, while Albertans are divided on whether the province runs an open and honest government. The poll was conducted by Leger Marketing and commissioned by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald.

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Published by: edmontonjournal on Mar 29, 2012
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10055-106 Street – Suite 460 Edmonton, Alberta T5J 2Y2 Phone: 780.423.

0708 Fax: 780.425-0400 -Press Release For Exclusive Release to: Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal Calgary Herald – Edmonton Journal – Alberta Provincial Election Poll -Provincial Issues Edmonton, March 28 2012 - A Leger Marketing poll released exclusively to the Calgary Herald and The Edmonton Journal is showing health care as the number one issue on the minds of voters. About one quarter of Albertans believe Health Care is the most important issue facing Alberta today and almost four in ten will evaluate the parties’ position on health care when deciding their ballot choice. Issues  26% of Albertans believe health care is the most important issue facing the province today – well ahead of the second most important issue, government trust and accountability (15%)  Health care is most on the minds of Albertans living outside the big cities (32%) and among Albertans over the age of 60 (35%).  Other issues driving voters include… All Albertans Health Care Government trust and accountability Education The economy Cost of living Energy development Environment Provincial government deficit Leadership Crime (including the new drunk driving law) Electricity rate Taxes All Albertans 26% 15% 10% 9% 7% 7% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% Edmonton 23% 15% 11% 12% 8% 6% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% Calgary 22% 15% 10% 9% 6% 9% 5% 6% 7% 2% 2% 3% Rest of Alberta 32% 14% 10% 6% 8% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 5% 1%

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 Ian Large, Vice President for Alberta for Leger Marketing notes: While health

care always tops the issue list in Canada, the diverse range of important issues, especially government trust and accountability suggests voters will be looking for the whole package from the parties this year.

Issues Driving Choice

Q.

Which issue or issues will have the most impact on your choice of which party to vote for in the upcoming provincial election?
 Four in ten Albertans (39%) believe that a party’s position on health care will have the most impact on their choice on April 23rd. This issue is particularly important for Women (45% vs 33% for men) and Albertans over the age of 60 (46%)  Not far behind, however, will be the party’s position on education (28%). Again, this issue will have more of an impact on women (35% vs 21% for men) than it does on men.  Trust and accountability will be a factor for about one in five voters (19%)  Specifically…

All Albertans Health Care Education Government trust and accountability The economy Energy development Environment Taxes Cost of living Provincial government deficit Electricity rates

Issue or Issues that impact personal choice All Albertans Edmonton Calgary Rest of Alberta 39% 38% 37% 41% 28% 29% 30% 25% 19% 20% 18% 19% 17% 16% 11% 7% 7% 7% 6% 16% 15% 12% 6% 7% 5% 6% 20% 20% 12% 10% 5% 9% 4% 19% 14% 9% 6% 9% 6% 7%

Mentions over 5% only shown. Results add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions

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 What’s also interesting is how the issues are polarizing the voter choice between the parties…  Specifically… Issue or Issues that impact personal choice Party Most Likely to Vote for… PC Wildrose Liberal NDP 45% 36% 44% 49% 32% 24% 23% 27% 13% 32% 16% 21% 19% 21% 11% 8% 8% 7% 6% 19% 16% 4% 8% 3% 12% 5% 7% 14% 20% 6% 11% 3% 5% 16% 13% 17% 8% 3% 0% 7%

Decided Voters Health Care Education Government trust and accountability The economy Energy development Environment Taxes Cost of living Provincial government deficit Electricity rates

Mentions over 5% only shown. Results add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions  Large Notes: The Wildrose has made the debate about government trust and

accountability and this resonates strongly with their base but may not draw in any more committed PC or Liberal voters. For Alison Redford, more progressive health care and education messages may resonate with these voters on the left.
Personal Impact Undecided 35% 32% 13% 18% 15% 12% 6% 12% 6% 7%

Undecided Voters Health Care Education Government trust and accountability The economy Energy development Environment Taxes Cost of living Provincial government deficit Electricity rates

 For undecided voters, government trust and accountability are not the key drivers of choice – it’s health care and education.

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Approval with the Government Handling of Issues to date

Q.

How much do you approve or disapprove of Alison Redford’s Progressive Conservative government’s handling of the following issues…
 Although the approval ratings for most of the files is above 50%, Albertans do have concerns with the Government’s handling of the health care (39%), Heritage Fund (41%) and running an open and honest government (47%) Approval with Government Handling of Each File All Albertans Edmonton Calgary Rest of Alberta 39% 39% 35% 43% 57% 59% 52% 58% 41% 38% 39% 45% 47% 57% 50% 56% 55% 59% 48% 57% 49% 51% 53% 52% 41% 56% 47% 59% 54% 65% 53% 59% 54% 57% 57% 60%

Health Care Taxes Saving and the Heritage Fund Running an open and honest government Managing the economy Education The environment Crime and Social Issues Energy development

Decided Voters Health Care Taxes Saving and the Heritage Fund Running an open and honest government Managing the economy Education The environment Crime and Social Issues Energy development

Approval with Government Handling of Each File PC Wildrose Liberal NDP 65% 20% 29% 24% 80% 44% 56% 34% 63% 30% 32% 25% 83% 88% 74% 77% 80% 85% 18% 39% 30% 55% 39% 54% 35% 49% 52% 32% 46% 37% 31% 38% 31% 30% 42% 32%

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 Wildrose supporters are clearly unhappy with the government’s track record health care and on running an open and honest government. The PCs can speak to their record on taxes and education to Liberal audiences. Government Approval Undecided 39% 55% 36% 48% 56% 54% 52% 53% 57%

Undecided Voters Health Care Taxes Saving and the Heritage Fund Running an open and honest government Managing the economy Education The Environment Crime and Social Issues Energy development

 On most issues the government performance is relatively high among undecided voters. Health Care Satisfaction with the Health Care System

Q.

How satisfied are you with the health care system in Alberta?
Satisfaction with the Health Care System All Albertans Edmonton Calgary Rest of Alberta 57% 58% 57% 56% 42% 41% 42% 42%

All Albertans Satisfied Not satisfied

 Although health care is the number one issue on the minds of voters in this campaign, more than half of Albertans are satisfied with the health care system.  Satisfaction is consistent across all the regions.

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Doctor Intimidation Inquiry

Q.

Do you think the government should hold an inquiry into the intimidation of doctors that was found in the recent report by the Health Quality Council?
Doctor Intimidation Inquiry Edmonton Calgary 70% 24% 6% 75% 18% 8%

All Albertans Yes No Don’t know

All Albertans 71% 21% 9%

Rest of Alberta 68% 20% 12%

 There is overwhelming support for a public inquiry into the issue of doctor intimidation. Queue-Jumping

Q.

Do you think Premier Alison Redford lived up to her word by calling an inquiry into queue jumping in the health care system?
Queue-Jumping Inquiry Edmonton Calgary 49% 33% 18% 45% 37% 18%

All Albertans Yes No Don’t know

All Albertans 50% 32% 18%

Rest of Alberta 54% 27% 19%

 One third of Albertans do not believe that Alison Redford lived up to her word in calling the inquiry into allegations of queue-jumping in the health care system. Government Funding for Medical Services Provided by Private Facilities

Q.

Should the government publically fund more medical services provided by private health care firms?
Public Finding for Private Medical Services All Albertans Edmonton Calgary Rest of Alberta 54% 51% 53% 57% 40% 44% 39% 36% 7% 6% 7% 7%

All Albertans Yes No Don’t know

 More than half of voters believe that the government should provide more public funding for medical services provided by private health care services.

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Private Health Care Coverage

Q.

Should Albertans be able to pay for their own health care coverage from private medical providers?
Private Health Care Coverage All Albertans Edmonton Calgary 59% 35% 6% 51% 43% 6% 61% 33% 5% Rest of Alberta 63% 30% 7%

All Albertans Yes No Don’t know

 Nearly six in ten Albertans want the option to buy their own coverage from private medical service providers – opposition to this idea is strongest in Edmonton. PC 62% 35% 3% Wildrose 75% 20% 4% Liberal 43% 49% 8% NDP 37% 61% 2% Undecided 57% 35% 9%

Yes No Don’t know

 While Wildrose supporters clearly favour private health care options, most PC voters also support the idea.

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Energy Party to Best Manage the Oilsands Q. Which party do you think would best manage the development of the oilsands in Alberta? All Albertans 35% 22% 8% 9% 1% 22% Edmonton 36% 15% 8% 12% 2% 24% Calgary 39% 26% 5% 8% 2% 16% Rest of Alberta 32% 24% 9% 7% 1% 25%

All Albertans PC Wildrose Party Liberal Party of Alberta New Democratic Party Alberta Party Don’t know

 While the PCs clearly have the edge over the Wildrose in terms of the ability to best manage the oilsands in Alberta, a significant minority (22%) don’t know which party would be best. Subsidies to Refine Bitumen in the Province?

Q.

Should the Alberta government give subsidies or incentives to energy companies to refine more bitumen in the province?
Subsidies to Refine Bitumen in Alberta All Albertans Edmonton Calgary Rest of Alberta 40% 36% 43% 42% 52% 56% 49% 51% 8% 8% 8% 7%

All Albertans Yes No Don’t know

 While the majority doesn’t think that subsidies or incentives from the provincial government are appropriate, a sizeable minority would like to see more bitumen refined here.

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Actively Promote Pipeline Development

Q.

Should the Alberta government actively promote the development of private company pipelines like Keystone XL and Northern Gateway in order to expand oil exports?
Support Pipeline Development All Albertans Edmonton Calgary 62% 32% 5% 55% 39% 6% 71% 23% 6%

All Albertans Yes No Don’t know

Rest of Alberta 61% 35% 4%

 Almost two thirds overall and seven in ten in Calgary believe the government has a role in promoting the development of pipelines out of the province. Royalties

Q.

Do you think Albertans are receiving enough royalties from crown owned oil and gas development?
Oil and Gas Royalties Edmonton Calgary 20% 70% 11% 41% 45% 14%

All Albertans Yes No Don’t know

All Albertans 29% 58% 13%

Rest of Alberta 26% 61% 14%

 Although most Albertans think we should be getting more from the royalties from crown-owned reserves, Calgarians are much more satisfied with the current regime.

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About the Poll  Leger Marketing conducted 1,215 telephone interviews with eligible voters across Alberta between March 22nd and March 25th 2012.  A probability sample of this size results in a maximum margin of error of ±2.8% 19 times out of twenty.  The margin of error for the regional findings is higher at… o Edmonton ±4.6% o Calgary ±4.6% o Rest of Alberta ±5.7% For more information Contact: Ian Large Vice President, Alberta Leger Marketing 780-423-0708 ext. 242 ILarge@Legermarketing.com

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