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using Bayes’ theorem. to calculate the posterior conditional expectation.g. e. select A. by which door we choose. we take up the task of analyzing the problem. Events are determined by where the treasure is. There are three doors . and by which opens up after our first selection. open C which is empty..50 in text) Here. I.e. if we designate by a triple the collection of outcomes: treasure in A.13 The three door game (Exercise 1. the event that treasure is behind door is simply ..

.

while the event that we select where run over all possibilities is similarly denoted by .

! The space of outcomes is: " .

# $% $% &% ' # $ ( &% ) &% $%(*) & (' &%* +. $%(' ' # $ and - the family of its subsets . $%(' '.

0 " - 1./.

$1.

We have 7 :+. 2 31465%! Following the description of the problem. not all elementary events have the same probability.

# &% $< :+.

(+ ) &% $< :+.

(' '. $%(' ' # < :+.

% #<

:+;

%* =<

:+;

/ #<

:+;

/ '*< :+.

/' =< :+.

/' *< 89 .

14 while 7 7 : .

# < ?@:+.

< : .

( +. < ?@:+.

(+ $< : .

(' *. $< AB:+.

(' ' # < &! 8 9 > .

The above are due to the fact that. contains only one elemen .g. e..

we can compute the conditional probability for potential benefit in a “switching strategy”. etc. by direct enumeration: Given that we select . This is what we do next. and that the door behind it. First. etc. we need to compare :+. we can check independence. because only can be opened. whereas contains two outcomes with equal probability. or. These facts define everything! From here on we can enumerate. $ tary outcome.

DC.

2 $< has been opened with no treasure :+.

*& $DCE.

# $< $! and :+.

DC.

# < GF :+.

*& $DC.

Using the probabilities of the elementary events listed earlier. we compute that 7 :+. 2# $< If we can show that then a “switching strategy” helps.

< H 8 7 :+.

# < H 8 9JI :+.

MLN.

2 $< O .

and .

2# $ 7 8 9 > 7 K :+.

# $< P Thus. 7 7 Q :+.

< R:+.

and : . 2 $< & are obviously independent.

$< :+.

DC.

2 $< S :+.

2# $< 7 8 ! Similarly (though done a bit differently for variety). :+.

*& $DC.

2# $< S :+.

*& $MLT.

2 $< : .

# $< .

15 :+.

* # < :+.

U W XU > ! 8 Second. which sometimes makes it easier. We compute: :+. # < V. except that we turn things around. using Bayes’ theorem: We again enumerate possibilities.

(' DC.

2 $< S : .

# DC.

(' < R:+.

*& $/ :+.

# < : .

$DCE.

(' < R:+.

('$ $< :+.

U W I V. # < VU VU V.U W 9 U 8 > ! Here we used the fact that .

# YLT.

(' J.

$YLZ.

is the only choice for open. (' $ because if we selected and treasure is in .

This is reflected in the fact that there is no event other than in . * # ing.

then we would expect that “switching” would have an advantage. as you can see. if we realize that “no switching” gives us a V U probability of winning. and it does. In this case it may look tedious.. using Bayes’ theorem). But it is not entirely obvious. Incidentally. it is often the case that the right “language” and the right “notation” allows us to think and compute more easily than without it! . but in many cases we can save quite a bit of effort using such an approach (e. The tools and concepts of probability allow a systematic approach to all such questions. ('& $ . Of course. The bottom line is that we have to enumerate possibilities.g.

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28 Cont .

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