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Press Release - April 3

Press Release - April 3

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Published by Stephen Taylor

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Published by: Stephen Taylor on Apr 04, 2012
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PRESS RELEASE – April 4, 2012
In last week’s tracking poll, the Wildrose Alliance Party led the PCs by 9 points among decided voters. This week’s poll indicates that Wildrose’s lead has increased to 17 points. If a provincial election was held today, the Wildrose Alliance Party would receive 45.5% of popular votes, up from 39.6% a week ago. Wildrose’s gain comes at the expense of all of the other parties, with the PCs down week-to-week from 30.3% to 28.4%, the Liberals down from 13.0% to 11.3%, the NDPs down from 11.6% to 10.2%, and the remaining parties down from 5.5% to 4.6%. Regionally, Wildrose’s gain is widespread, with poll results indicating that the gap between Wildrose and the PCs is closing in Edmonton and expanding everywhere else. Whereas the PCs were ahead of Wildrose in Edmonton by 4.5 points last week, this week they are ahead by only 1.2 points. In Calgary and the rest of Alberta, Wildrose’s lead is now 22-23 points compared to 12-15 points last week. If an election was held today, Wildrose would receive 50.0% of the votes in Calgary, 28.1% in Edmonton, and 51.9% in the rest of Alberta. The party’s education vision contributes to its strength, with 29.3% of all voters (decideds plus undecideds) agreeing that Wildrose has the right vision for education in the province, compared to 20.6% for the PCs, 10.6% for the Liberals, and 8.4% for the NDPs. With regard to who would make the best premier, Danielle Smith (Wildrose) and Alison Redford (PC) both crept up over the past week at the expense of Raj Sherman (Liberal), and Smith remains slightly ahead of Redford. Among all voters, Smith has 30.5% support versus Redford’s 28.9%. Raj Sherman and Brian Mason (NDP) are well back with 8% each. Detailed results are provided on the following pages. An executive report for the April 3, 2012 poll is available upon request by contacting Campaign Research at 613-482-0622 or by e-mail to gdunlop@campaignresearch.ca. This is the second in a series of weekly tracking polls that are being conducted and self-sponsored by Campaign Research during the 2012 Alberta Provincial Election campaign. Campaign Research is a full service marketing research agency. Our research design and analysis is conducted in accordance with Market Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) accepted practices of which Campaign Research Inc. is a corporate Gold Seal member. All research work is supervised by a Certified Market Research Professional (CMRP). Our second Alberta tracking poll was conducted on Tuesday, April 3, 2012. A random sample of households was drawn from the Alberta residential phone database. Of the 17,993 households dialed, 840 respondents 18 years of age and older completed a 6-question survey using interactive touch response (ITR) technology on their telephone keypads. The survey questions measured popular vote by party candidate (the “ballot question”), best premier, and education vision. A sample of this size has a margin of error of +/-3.3%, 19 times out of 20.

Alberta Provincial Election Weekly Tracking Poll (April 3)
The Ballot Question – “Thinking of provincial politics, if a provincial election was held today, which candidate would you vote for?” (Provincial party candidates listed)

N = 663 with margin of error +/- 3.7% points 19 times out of 20

Question: Which political party has the right vision for education in this province? (Provincial parties listed by name)

N = 824 with margin of error +/- 3.3% points 19 times out of 20

Question: Thinking of the leaders of the various Alberta political parties who do you think would make the best premier of Alberta? (Provincial party leaders listed)

N = 831 with margin of error +/- 3.3% points 19 times out of 20


Poll-related media inquiries should be directed to: Greg Dunlop, MBA, CMRP Principal, Campaign Research gdunlop@campaignresearch.ca

Non-poll general media enquiries should be directed to: Aaron Wudrick awudrick@campaignresearch.ca 613-482-0622

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