April 6, 2012 TO: Interested Parties FR: Marc Silverman RE: Polling Results in Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District Democratic Primary Recent

polling in Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 17th Congressional district shows that with less than three weeks until the primary, Matt Cartwright now leads Tim Holden. Cartwright has erased Holden’s double-digit lead from February, and now has the same favorable rating as his opponent. Just as troubling for Holden is that he finds himself running in a district where his votes on health care and the environment are unpopular. Cartwright is in a strong position to win as long as he has the resources to compete with a 20-year incumbent. Cartwright now leads Holden.  Cartwright has a six-point lead over Holden (42% Cartwright / 36% Holden / 22% undecided). This is a 22-point swing since February when Holden led by 16 points (25% Cartwright / 41% Holden / 34% undecided). Candidate support measures.  Cartwright receives a 51% favorable / 7% unfavorable rating, with 42% unable to identify him. This is a 32-point increase since February, when only 26% of voters could identify him (22% favorable / 4% unfavorable / 76% don’t know).  Voters give Holden a 51% favorable / 14% unfavorable rating, while 35% cannot identify him. This is only a 15-point gain in name identification since February (40% favorable / 10% unfavorable / 50% don’t know).

Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies conducted N=600 interviews with likely 2012 Democratic primary election voters in Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional district. Interviews were conducted April 2-5, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +4.0% with a 95% confidence level.

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