GARINHARTYANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: Barrett For Wisconsin Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group April 18, 2012

1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20009 Tel: (202) 234-5570 Fax: (202) 232-8134 www.hartresearch.com

Results Of Just-Completed Democratic Survey Results

The results of our survey among 502 likely Democratic primary voters conducted April 16 and 17, 2012, confirm the findings of the recently released Daily Kos/PPP primary survey and show that Tom Barrett holds a comfortable double-digit lead over Kathleen Falk.
Daily Kos/PPP (4/13-15) % Tom Barrett Kathleen Falk Doug LaFollette Kathleen Vinehout Undecided 38 24 9 6 22 Garin-HartYang (4/16-17) % 41 27 7 4 21

The breadth and depth of Mayor Barrett’s support is impressive, showing that he is well positioned to earn a solid victory in the May 8 primary and has momentum in the short sprint to defeat Scott Walker.  Not only does Barrett lead Falk in the trial heat, but his support is 20 points MORE firmly committed than her support.  Mayor Barrett holds leads among a wide variety of constituencies that attest to his broad-based support: he leads by double-digits among liberals and moderates, has a 12-point lead with self-identified Democrats, and he defeats Falk by more than 20 points in BOTH the Milwaukee and Madison media markets (both of which combined make up three-fifths of the expected primary vote).  Tom Barrett has advantages among important elements of the Democratic base: he leads among both men AND women, has a 15point lead among voters who signed a recall petition, and he leads by 44% to 31% among union members.

G A R I N H A R T Y A N G RESEARCH GROUP
Several key factors help explain Tom Barrett’s strong advantage DESPITE his campaign being massively outspent by the Walker and Falk campaigns; namely, he is seen quite simply as the only candidate who can defeat Scott Walker.  One-third of primary voters say choosing a candidate with the best chance to defeat Walker is the MOST important consideration in voting on May 8, and on this measure, Barrett leads Falk by an overwhelming 55% to 22% margin.

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