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MAJOR PROJECT ON
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN BATHINDA REGION A STUDY DURING RECESSION PERIOD

(For the partial fulfillment of Degree of Master of Business Administrative)
Session 2008-2010

Under the guidance of: MR. AMANDEEP SINGH (SR.LECTURER)

Submitted by: ANKUSH MAHAJAN ROLL-NO.-2105 CLASS- MBA-2ND
(MARKETING)

Submitted to:

PUNJABI UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS STUDIES GURU KASHI CAMPUS, TALWANDI SABO BATHINDA
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
with deep sense of gratitude I would like to take this opportunities thank to my honorable Project Guide, Mr. Amandeep Singh (senior lecturer), USBS

Talwandi Sabo who always a sincere advisor and inspiring force behind this report . He has been extremely generous with his time and rendered me all possible help to see this work complete .I could not have asked more cooperating guide her invaluable and unstinted support has always given me the confidence to do the work without his guidance this project report would not be the light of the day. In addition to them I would also I like to thanks my friends and various private and public sector banks that were of immense help to me for data collection. I would also like to thanks to my honorable H.O.D. to giving me opportunity to work on this project. Last but not least I like to thanks my parents, their support thought the making of this project.

DATE : ««««««.

ANKUSH MAHAJAN ROLL- NO. - 2105 MBA-II (MARKETING)

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STUDENT DECLARATION
We hereby declare that the project report entitled performance evaluation of public and private sector banks in Bathinda region- A study during recession period submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of masters of business Administration to Punjabi University School of Business Studies India, are our original work and not submitted for the award of any other degree, diploma, fellowship, or any other similar title or prizes.

(Signature of student) Ankush Mahajan Roll-No.-2105

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PUNJABI UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS STUDIES GURU KASHI CAMPUS, TALWANDI SABO (BATHINDA)

TO WHOMSOEVER IT MAY CONCERN

This is to certified that the project work entitled PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN BATHINDA REGION-A STUDY DURING RECESSION PERIOD done by ANKUSH MAHAJAN (ROLL NO.- 2105, MARKETING) to be submitted to PUSBS TALWANDI SABO in year 2010 for partial fulfillment of the degree of MBA (MARKETING) has been carried out under the guidance and supervision. This is an original piece and no part of this work has been submitted for any other degree.

DATE: ««««.

AMANDEEP SINGH (SENIOR LECTURER) University School of Business Studies Talwandi Sabo (Bathinda)

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22 22 .22-23 23 .V .24 .5 Plan of Analysis 4.CONTENTS Abstract Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Review of literature Chapter 3: Need of the study Chapter 4: Design of the Study 4...23-35 ...40-44 Page 6 .6 Limitations of Study Chapter 5: Data Analysis and Interpretation 5.1 Statement of the Problem 4....20-23 ..2 Interpretation Chapter 6: Conclusion Bibliography Annexure 1.13-17 . 38-39 .18-19 .1 Data Analysis 5..4 Research Methodology 4.. .1-12 .34-35 .. Results of HSc10 .36-37 .21 22 ....3 Scope of the Research 4. ..2 Objective of the Research 4.

.5: Trend in saving in public banks Table 5...1: NPA s of public bank Table 5....26 27 ..27 ...7: Table showing variable number .25 26 ..8: Table showing values after applying t..INDEX OF TABLES Table 5....28 ..25 ...9: Table showing trend function Page 7 ..30 .test Table 5....4: Loan disbursed by private banks Table5..3: Loan disbursed by public bank Table 5...........6: Trend in saving in private saving Table 5...2: NPA s of private banks Table 5....32 Table 5...

So whole report is shows how the banking system of Bathinda is affected by the recession. productive and competitive economy and to support higher investment levels and accentuate growth. The Indian banking system has traversed a long journey to come to this phase where the health and quality of the banking system and the contribution made by it in the economic development can be comparable to the International standards. The project contains the brief description of the recession. Banking by far is the most dominant segment of the financial system and plays a pivotal role in the development of an economy. Although the research reports shows that commercial banks do better than the private sector banks during this period.ABSTRACT A strong and efficient financial system is critical to the attainment of the objectives of creating a market-driven. A healthy banking system. The current recession starts from the banking industry and it affect the whole economy of USA and those which are somewhere related with the USA. A survey was conducted to get the data to judge the impact of recession on banks of Bathinda and thus the first part of the paper scrutinizes the recession its impact on economy. This project is an outcome of the research on the performance evaluation of the banks both public and private sector banks in Bathinda region during the recession period. Page 8 . main cause of recession and its impact. total loan disbursed by the banks trend in saving in banks. We require this data because it helps in judgment of the performance of the banks as recession leads to the financial crises. It concerns with the NPA (non-performing assets) of banks. But there are certain stages in the business cycle which affect the business it may be recession which shake the whole economy or a system that prevails in the country. Second part related to the banking system in India. The last part of the report includes analysis of related data which envisage the performance of the private and public sector banks in Bathinda region during recession period. Third part related to the data related to the research. besides providing necessary architecture for facilitating economic growth. also serves as a strong repository of liquidity. So this helps in finding of performance of the banks both public and private sector banks.

CHAPTER-I INTRODUCTION Page 9 .

household incomes. investment. such as increasing money supply. although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. increasing government spending and decreasing taxation. Supply-side economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business capital investment. Production as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). and corporate profits. A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an economic depression. while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise . Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. investment spending. L-shaped and W-shaped recessions. employment. During recessions. a general slowdown in economic activity over a period of time. As an informal shorthand. many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Laissez-faire minded economists may simply recommend that the government not interfere with natural market forces. Most mainstream economists believe that recessions are caused by inadequate aggregate demand in the economy. business profits and inflation all fall during recessions. and favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions. ATTRIBUTES OF RECESSION A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and includes declines in coincident measures of activity such as employment. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies. a recession is a business cycle contraction. economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes. Monetarists would favor the use of expansionary monetary policy. capacity utilization. U-shaped. Page 10 .Recessions are generally believed to be caused by a drop in spending.RECESSION In economics. while Keynesian economists may advocate increased government spending to spark economic growth. such as V-shaped.

however. When The Federal Reserve loses balance in this equation. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007. the model developed by economist Jonathan H. uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit.PREDICTORS OF A RECESSION Although there are no completely reliable predictors. the following are regarded to be possible predictors: y In the US a significant stock market drop has often preceded the beginning of a recession. However about half of the declines of 10% or more since 1946 have not been followed by recessions. Lowering of home prices or value. The United States housing market correction (a Page 11 . Lowering of Home Prices. CAUSES OF RECESSION A recession is primarily caused by the actions taken to control the money supply in the economy. The various causes for the economic recession are: 1. The Federal Reserve is responsible for maintaining an ideal balance between money supply. United States. the economy is forced to correct itself. In about 50% of the cases a significant stock market decline came only after the recessions had already begun. interest rates. Wright. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators). and inflation.. too much personal debts. It is. y y y The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims. not a definite indicator. Subprime lending as a cause: Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations are in recession as of early 2009. y Inverted yield curve.

consequence of United States housing bubbles) and subprime mortgage crisis has significantly contributed to a recession. Consumers in the U. the general economic slowdown that ensued in the later stages of the crisis. October due to global financial crises. Research in Britain shows that low-skilled. It is the main reason of recession of2008 due to which the global economy suffers. meant that bank losses became more closely connected to macroeconomic performance. with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market. have been hard hit by the current recession. The major impact of recession are : Unemployment The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. Based on the assumption that subprime lending precipitated the crisis. low-educated workers and the young are most vulnerable to unemployment in a downturn. in particular after the global crisis of confidence in September and October 2008.S. With consumer confidence so low. Not only have consumers watched their wealth being eroded ± they are now fearing for their jobs a sun employment rises. recovery will take a long time. In this period. IMPACT OF RECESSIONS Impact of recession was observed in India in 2008. This indicates the depth and severity of the current recession. The 2008/2009 recession is seeing private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. Page 12 . the majority of write downs were more directly linked to a surge in borrower defaults and to anticipated defaults as evidenced by the increase in the amount and relative importance of provisioning expenses.

Page 13 . Recessions have also provided opportunities for anti-competitive mergers. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families. and individuals' health and well-being. and then rises again as weaker firms close.Business Productivity tends to fall in the early stages of a recession. with a negative impact on the wider economy. Social effects The living standards of people dependent on wages and salaries are more affected by recessions than those who rely on fixed incomes or welfare benefits. The variation in profitability between firms rises sharply.

In other word a bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending activities. banks are usually the nexus of a cross-share holding entity known as the keiretsu. paying cheques drawn by customers on the bank. The word bank is said to be derived from French word ³Bancus´ or´ Banque´ that is a bench. So banks are the commercials concerns that collect money from those who have it to spare or who are saving it out of their income. and by investing Page 14 . Jews of Lombardy. banks have historically owned major stakes in industrial corporations while in other countries such as the United States banks are prohibited from owning non-financial companies. and lend to those who require it. and ATM . one is accepting deposits sand other of lending monies and investment and/ funds. Banking plays two different functions. bancassurance is prevalent. Banks lend money by making advances to customers on current accounts. the business of banking was carried on by the members of vaish community. and collecting cheques deposited to customers' current accounts. banking has become full fledge business activity and during Manu Smriti period which followed the Vedic period Epic age. In Japan.Banks borrow money by accepting funds deposited on current accounts. Other believes it is derived from German word ³Back´ meaning a joint stock fund.AN OVERVIEW OF INDIAN BANKING SYSTEM: In India. Banks also enable customer payments via other payment methods such as telegraphic transfer. and by issuing debt securities such as banknotes and bonds. transect their business on benches in the marketplace. It is believed that the early bankers. During the Ramayana and Mahabharata eras . the ancient Hindi Scripture refers to money lending activities in the Vedic period. In France. by making installment loans. by accepting term deposits. Banks are important players in financial markets and offer services such as investment funds and loans. as most banks offer insurance services (and now real estate services) to their clients. In some countries such as Germany. Banks act as payment agents by conducting checking or current accounts for customers. Government restrictions on financial activities by banks vary over time and location. Banks primarily provide financial services to customers while enriching investors.

Axis Bank(earlier as UTI Bank).in marketable debt securities and other forms of money lending. along with the rapid growth in the economy of India. but non-bank lenders provide a significant and in many cases adequate substitute for bank loans. cash management trusts and other non-bank financial institutions in many cases provide an adequate substitute to banks for lending savings to. revitalized the banking sector in India. The level of government regulation of the banking industry varies widely. with countries such as Iceland. Banks borrow most funds from households and non-financial businesses. Banks provide almost all payment services. individuals and governments. Banking system in India is dominated by nationalized banks. The nationalization of the banks took place in the time of late Mrs. Indira Gandhi in 1969with another installment in of 6 Banks on 15April 1980. and money market funds.prior to 1969. the main objective is of nationalization was to insure mass banking as against class banking with bank infrastructure aimed at hilly tracts and terrains of the country . having relatively light regulation of the banking sector. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. the then Narsimha Rao government embarked on a policy of liberalization. The modern banking system began with the opening of bank of englandin1694. In the early 1990s. and countries such as China having a wide variety of regulations but no systematic process that can be followed typical of a communist system. and included Global Trust Bank (the first of such new generation banks to be set up). Non-banks that provide payment services such as remittance companies are not normally considered an adequate substitute for having a bank count. licensing a small number of private banks. in 1970. which has seen rapid growth with strong contribution from all the three sectors of Page 15 . This move. Bank of Hindustan was first bank to be established in India. and lend most funds to households and non-financial businesses. and a bank account is considered indispensable by most businesses. SBI was nationalized in 1955 under the SBI act of 1955. These came to be known as New Generation tech-savvy banks. State bank of India (SBI) was the only public sector bank in India. which later amalgamated with Oriental Bank of Commerce.

One may also expect M&As. Lend at 6%. banking in India is generally fairly mature in terms of supply. People not just demanded more from their banks but also received more. The new wave ushered in a modern outlook and tech-savvy methods of working for traditional banks. The Reserve Bank of India is an autonomous body. All this led to the retail boom in India. The banking system in India is broadly divided in to two groups: Page 16 . at present it has gone up to 74% with some restrictions. With the growth in the Indian economy expected to be strong for quite some timeespecially in its services sector-the demand for banking services. takeovers. There are press reports that the banks' loan recovery efforts have driven defaulting borrowers to suicide. namely. Indian banks are considered to have clean. mortgages and investment services are expected to be strong. The stated policy of the Bank on the Indian Rupee is to manage volatility but without any fixed exchange rate-and this has mostly been true. private banks and foreign banks. This is the first time an investor has been allowed to hold more than 5% in a private sector bank since the RBI announced norms in 2005 that any stake exceeding 5% in the private sector banks would need to be vetted by them. government banks. The next stage for the Indian banking has been setup with the proposed relaxation in the norms for Foreign Direct Investment.banks. The new policy shook the Banking sector in India completely. vehicle and personal loans. Currently (2008). the Reserve Bank of India allowed Warburg Pincus to increase its stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (a private sector bank) to 10%. Bankers. and asset sales. product range and reach-even though reach in rural India still remains a challenge for the private sector and foreign banks. In recent years critics have charged that the non-government owned banks are too aggressive in their loan recovery efforts in connection with housing. especially retail banking. with minimal pressure from the government. strong and transparent balance sheets relative to other banks in comparable economies in its region. where all Foreign Investors in banks may be given voting rights which could exceed the present cap of 10%. till this time. Go home at 4) of functioning. In March 2006. In terms of quality of assets and capital adequacy. were used to the 4-6-4 method (Borrow at 4%.

1.000 branches with an additional 140 smaller banks with an undetermined number of branches. This is an indicator of the geography and regulatory structure of the USA. The United States has the most banks in the world in terms of institutions (7.2 trillion.3% in 2006/2007 to reach a record $74. up from 43% a decade earlier. Most of the remainder was from other Asian and European countries.000 branches. Commercial banks 2. The share of US banks remained relatively stable at around 14%. As of Nov 2009. China's top 4 banks have in excess of 67. RBI is the central bank of the country entrusted with monetary stability. These are: (1) State owned or public sector banks (PSB¶s) (2) Private bank under Indian ownership (3) Foreign banks There are PSB¶s which all account for 80% of the commercial banks . This follows a 5. Cooperative banks On the basis of ownership hold commercial banks are group under three categories.at the top of banking system is RBI. EU banks held the largest share. The growth in Europe¶s share was mostly at the expense of Japanese banks. Japan had 129 banks and 12. The structure of the Indian banking sectors characterized by five categories of commercial banks. There are two types of public banks²eight state banks (SBI and Page 17 .540 at the end of 2005) and possibly branches (75.000). resulting in a large number of small to medium-sized institutions in its banking system. management of the currency.000 banks grew 16. 53%. whose share more than halved during this period from 21% to 10%.4%1 increase in the previous year. SIZE OF GLOBAL BANKING INDUSTRY Worldwide assets of the largest 1.

rbi. nine new private banks entered the market in 1994 and 1995. following are the few public sector banks in India: i.1 showing market share by bank in2008-09(source: www. iii. State bank of India State bank of Patiala Oriental bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Bank of India Punjab and Sind bank Syndicate bank Vijaya bank Allahabad bank Page 18 . vii. The percentage shares of the five categories of banks in 2008-09 as follows: Table 1. ix. Market Share by Bank Category in 2008/09 Bank Category Market Share (In percent) State Nationalized Old private New private Foreign 10 25 09 18 38 Table 1. v. and consequently.com) Currently. A number of foreign banks were allowed entry into the Indian banking system between 1991 and 1998. iv. Following the RBI guidelines of 1993 to promote competition in the banking sector. vi. the total number of foreign banks increased from 24 in 1991/92 to 42 in 2000-2001. viii. The classification of private banks into "old private" and "new private" is based on the timing of market entry.seven associates) and 19nationalized banks. ii.

of India relaxing the condition for opening of private sector bank in the year 1994. Private Banks have been playing crucial role in enhancing customer oriented products with no choice left with the public sectors banks except to innovate and compete in the process. Andhra bank Union bank of India Corporation bank UCO bank Dena bank Indian overseas bank State bank of Bikaner and Jaipur State bank of Travancore United bank of India Canara bank etc.´Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited (HDFC)´ was amongst the first to receive on <in principle< approval from the Reserve bank of India to set up the bank in private sector as on 31st of March 2005. xvii. xii. xvi. xix. Kotak Mahindra bank 4. as a part of their liberalization program me. The major private sector banks are: 1.x. ICICI bank 2. xiii. HDFC bank 6. xiv. xviii. Yes bank 7. Indusind bank 3. xi. ING karure vysya bank ETC. The govt. there are 30 private sector banks operating in the country. Page 19 . xv. Federal bank 8. Axis bank 5.

CHAPTER -II REVIEW OF LITERATURE Page 20 .

assets. The Indian banking industry was dominated by public sector banks.Satish Kumar (2008). RBI permitted new banks to be started in the private sector as per the recommendation of Narashiman committee. in his studies concludes that ". productivity. In international cross-section study of banking performance suggests that any attempt to explain cross banking NPA variation would do better to capture bank efficiency through operating profits or return to assets which are less ambiguous in terms of direction then the net interest margin. and Hary Huizinga (1998) . such differences have diminished as public sector banks have improved profitability and cost Efficiency (3)B.in order to see the efficiency of Indian banks we have see the fore indicators i. These studies are given as follows: (1)Demirgic-Kunt . After liberalization the banking industry underwent major changes. (4)Vradi. The economic reforms totally have changed the banking sector.REVIEW OF LITERATURE: Many studies has been made by the various researcher many of them delved into various aspects of Banking and the practices followed by the commercial banks to check performance of banks. Mauluri. in his study on´ Measurement of efficiency of bank in India ³concluded that in modern world performance of banking is more important to stable the economy . quality and financial Page 21 . (2)Shirai (2002).Asli. earnings efficiency and cost efficiency in the initial stage [of reforms]. Even though foreign banks and private sector banks generally perform better than public sector banks in terms of profitability. in his article on an evaluation of the financial performance of Indian private sector banks wrote Private sector banks play an important role in development of Indian economy. profitability. Nagarjuna (2006). But now the situations have changed new generation banks with used of technology and professional management has gained a reasonable position in the banking industry. Vijay.e.

To put it differently. comparing PSBs with both domestic private and foreign banks. We employ three measures: Torques total factor productivity growth. for the most part. For measuring efficiency of banks we have adopted development envelopment analysis and found that public sectors banks are more efficient then other banks in India (5) Subash C. The results reveal that there has been no significant growth in productivity during the sample period. Both measures are relevant in attempting a comparison between the private and public sectors. It is difficult. (6) Galagedera. the public sector banks Page 22 . Out of a total of six comparisons we have made. When analyzed separately. Don U A. We attempt these comparisons over the period 1992-2000. This comparison rests.management for all banks includes public sector. and foreign banks in one. on financial measures of performance. In this paper. there are no differences in three cases. therefore.Ray (2000). PSBs do better in two. PSBs are seen to be at a disadvantage in only one out of six comparisons. we attempt a comparison between PSBs and their private sector counterparts based on measures of efficiency and productivity that use quantities of outputs and inputs. and such a comparison provides much of the rationale for privatization of PSBs. Piyadasa (1995-2002). to sustain the proposition that efficiency and productivity have been lower in public sector banks relative to their peers in the private sector. Edirisuriya. in his article on Performance of Indian Commercial Banks investigates the efficiency and productivity in a sample of Indian commercial banks over the period 1995-2002. Malmquist efficiency and revenue maximization efficiency. Efficiency measures a firm¶s performance relative to a benchmark at a given point in time. We measure efficiency using the data envelopment analysis technique and productivity change using Malmquist productivity index. productivity measures a firm¶s performance over time. India¶s public sector banks (PSBs) are compared unfavorably with their private sector counterparts. domestic and foreign. private sector banks in India for the period2000 and 1999 to 2002-2003.

smaller banks are less efficient and highly efficient banks have a high equity to assets and high return to average equity ratios. (7) Ram Pratap Sinha (2008). CapitalTo-Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio and Return on Assets. in his study abstract that after the onset of banking sector reform in India. Saho. First. this paper attempts to examine. the higher cost efficiency accrual of private banks over nationalized Page 23 . The private sector banks indicate no growth. six were found to be efficient. (8) Brijesh K.Performing Asset (NPA). Net Non. Our broad empirical findings are indicative in many ways. the increasing average annual trends in technical efficiency for all ownership groups indicate an affirmative gesture about the effect of the reform process on the performance of the Indian banking sector. Finally. the performance trends of the Indian commercial banks for the period: 1997-98 .2004-05. most of the observed commercial banks exhibit decreasing returns to scale for the period under observation. The present paper seeks to combine the ratio approach adopted by the Reserve Bank of India with the Assurance Region based measure of technical efficiency to find out a composite Data Envelopment Analysis based efficiency indicator of 28 observed commercial banks for 2002-03 to 2004-05.reveal a modest growth in productivity that appears to have been brought about by technological change. Anandeep Singh (2007). In general. Second. A study of the technical efficiency scores across ownership groups reveal that the observed private sector banks have higher mean technical efficiency scores compared to their public sector counterparts. Out of the 28 observed commercial banks considered for the study. the Reserve Bank of India initiated a system of Prompt Corrective Action with various trigger points and mandatory and discretionary responses by the supervising authority on a real time basis. The results show that the observed private sector commercial banks have higher mean technical efficiency score compared to those of the public sector commercial banks. The PCA framework relies on three major indicators of banking sector performance.

though old. concerning the scale elasticity behavior. often used interchangeably in the literature. The analysis is supposed to verify or reject the hypothesis whether the banking sector fulfils its intermediation function sufficiently to compete with the global players. finally. The results are insightful to the financial policy planner as it identifies priority areas for different banks. This paper evaluates the performance of Banking Sectors in India. (9) Roma Mitra. the technology and market-based results differ significantly supporting the empirical distinction between returns to scale and economies of scale. The empirical results suggest that ownership type has a significant effect on some performance indicators and that the observed increase in competition during financial liberalization has been associated with lower intermediation costs and profitability of the Indian banks. (10) Petya Koeva( July 2003) . Page 24 . which can improve the performance. This paper tries to model and evaluate the efficiency of 50 Indian banks. A stable and efficient banking sector is an essential precondition to increase the economic level of a country. The Inefficiency can be analyzed and quantified for every evaluated unit. This finding also highlights the possible stronger disciplining role played by the capital market indicating a strong link between market for corporate control and efficiency of private enterprise assumed by property right hypothesis.banks indicate that nationalized banks. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare efficiency of the banking sector in India. And. The analysis focuses on examining the behavior and determinants of bank intermediation costs and profitability during the liberalization period. in his study on The Performance of Indian Banks During Financial Liberalization states that new empirical evidence on the impact of financial liberalization on the performance of Indian commercial banks. do not reflect their learning experience in their cost minimizing behavior due to X-inefficiency factors arising from government ownership. Shankar Ravi (2008).

CHAPTER III NEED OF THE STUDY Page 25 .

Such an improvement was inevitable as the traditional performance measurement systems. strong customer relationship and cultures capable of innovation and change. performance evaluation systems have evolved over a period of time from single-aspect systems to more comprehensive systems covering all aspects of an organization. Efficient performance evaluation system encompasses all aspects of an organization. but the ramification profound. The notion was simple. almost every industry. This calls for a system that first measures and evaluates the performance. evaluation and strategic planning for future growth and development of the Indian banks in the light of changing requirements of this sector. has been recognized since long. with an overwhelming reliance on financial aspects in isolation were ill suited to meet demands of modern business world characterized by value creation stemming from intangible assets such a s employee know-how. that envisages importance of evaluation. can adopt many methods to evaluate the performance. It prove to be better for performance measurement. Moreover. for sustainable growth and development. and then brings out the strengths and weaknesses of the organization for the purpose of further improvement.NEED OF THE STUDY Significance of performance evaluation in an organization. With the advances in computational tools. Page 26 .

CHAPTER -IV DESIGN OF THE STUDY Page 27 .

RESEARCH INSTRUMENT: Quantitative measures used for this problem for collecting primary data. and internal records of Banks of Bathinda region. This data collected through survey of different private and public sectors banks in Bathinda region.a study during recession period. SAMPLING SIZE: Private Banks-05 Public Banks -09 TOTAL -14 SAMPLING PROCEDURE: Purposive Sampling Technique Page 28 . etc. RESEARCH PLAN: It involves decision on data sources. sampling plan and contact method. research approaches. y To study the trend in saving during recession period. y To study the loan disbursed during recession period. SAMPLING UNIT: All the private and public sector Banks of Bathinda region. RBI. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data used to solve the research problem. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES: y To study the NPA during recession period. SAMPLING PLAN: Following is the design for the sampling plan which includes sampling unit. research instrument. and sampling procedure. sampling size.RESEARCH PROBLEM: Performance evaluation of private and public sector banks in Bathinda region. Secondary data collected through the available websites related to banks. SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH: The study is limited to private and public sector banks of Bathinda region.

test applied was: t* = r/S.(r) t* = calculated t-ratio distributed with (n-20 ) degree of freedom. Test used for analysis: student t. production yield or resource variable a= constant b = regression coefficient t= time (t=1 .test The procedure of test is as follows: y=ab+ Log y = log a+ log b Taking b = (1+r) r = (b-1) ×100 Where y= study variable. area. . So we applied time series analysis.E. n) r= compound growth rate (CGR) in percentage To test the significance of compound growth rate t. r= compound growth rate Page 29 . . PLAN OF ANALYSIS: The data is related to the trend of the banks over the five consecutive years i.CONTACT METHOD: Personal contact with various Banks branches situated in Bathinda region for collecting data. . from 2004 to 2009.e.

All variable including private and public sector banks. 14 for the trend in saving.all are independent to each other as per assumption of the test i. LIMITATION OF THE STUDY: (1) Time for the study is less so one cannot access the whole performance in the limited period of time. These are fifty six (56) variables in the test .14 for loan disbursed. variables include are 28 in NPA s ( gross.E. was calculated by fitting the formula. net) . (2) The Data available is in the form of banks internal records that is their balance sheet.(r) = There are fifty six variables in the test.(r)= standard error of compound growth rate . S.e. S.S. sale figures etc it may be misinterpreted or may not be according to the requirement. (3) The area of study is limited to only public and private banks of Bathinda Region as number is limited to the area Page 30 . Also the data is available only for till 2009 so it not possible to access the performance of the banks. E.E.

CHAPTER -V DATA ANALYSIS Page 31 .

2 1.1 3. 1.2 2005-06 GROSS NET 0.TABLE 5.9 NET 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.9 0.2 0.NPA OF PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS.NO .6 0.5 0.6 1. 5. 5.0 0.7 0.1 8.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 2.1 1. (In Percentage) S.7 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.4 1.1 (In Percentage) 2007-08 GROSS NET 1.5 0.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 3.3 2. NAME OF BANKS ICICI HDFC Indusind Axis Kotak Mahindra 2004-05 GROSS NET 1.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 2.3 0.9 0.3 4. 9.2 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 1. 2004-05 GROSS 2.6 2005-06 GROSS 1.4 1.1 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.9 1.1 1.NPA OF PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS.2 .5 1. 2.2 0.NO 1.6 0.2 1.3 2007-08 GROSS 1.0 1. 7. 3.1 0. 4.1 0.8 0.4 1.1 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.0 2008-09 GROSS NET 2.4 NET 1.2 0.3 0.1 0. 4.3 1.0 NET 0.0 1.1 0. 3.3 1.1 1.7 2. S.5 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.4 0. 6.4 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.1 2006-07 GROSS NET 1.8 0.1 3.3 2006-07 GROSS 1.3 0.4 7.5 0. NAME OF BANKS State Bank of India State Bank of Patiala Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Bank of India Oriental Bank of commerce Punjab National Bank Punjab and sind Bank IDBI Bank ltd.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.6 2008-09 GROSS 1.6 0.6 NET 1.5 1. 3.2 1.6 TABLE 5.0 4.3 0. 2.2 1.5 2.5 0.1.4 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.4 Page 32 .8 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 2.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.6 NET 1.5 3.6 0.6 1.

000 10.00.50.00. 7.000 10.00.000 17.000 11.48.50.000 25.000 10.00.000 TABLE 5.000 4.00.00.00.000 17.600 18.00.000 28. 5.00.00. 1.45. 6. 3.000 17.91.500 25.00.000 14.200 24.000 29.3.00.000 17.000 11.05.00.12.000 2.98.000 16.00.00.00.00.000 30. 8.00. 2.000 13.900 15.000 34.80.000 14.000 4.000 15.45.000 13.NO NAME OF THE BANKS ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2007-09 1. 3.500 15. 9.40.50.000 1.20.000 25.00.300 Page 33 .4 LOAN DISBURSED BY PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS DURING RECESSION.000 13.000 13.000 11.000 12.000 13.90.LOAN DISBURSED BY PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS ( in RS.000 12.000 10.000 12.900 21.50. (Rs.000 14.000 13.000 18.00.) S.00.00.85.00.45.200 23.000 11.00.000 1400.30.00.000 13.000 2006-07 19.600 24.000 35.50.000 10.00.500 25. NAME OF THE BANKS State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and sind Bank Bank of India State Bank of Patiala IDBI Bank ltd.000 18.50.00. 2004-05 15.000 18.00. 5. 4.56.000 15.000 2005-06 17.NO.TABLE 5.00.000 14.000 23.00.50.50.49.08.00.29.40. 15. 4.000 12.000 2008-09 26.000 15.300 16.78.84.00.50.000 14.000 2007-08 20.30.00.000 10.00.000 3.00.00.000 11.00.000 10. 8. In lakhs) S. 2.000 14.

2. 9. 3. 3. 1. NAME OF THE BANKS ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank 2004-05 1200 800 530 900 300 2005-06 900 940 600 950 700 2006-07 1000 1020 900 1200 600 2007-08 1300 1100 1237 2400 1200 2008-09 1584 1250 1200 2529 1300 Page 34 .4. NAME OF BANKS State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and Sind Bank Bank of India State Bank of Patiala IDBI 2005-06 1200 1332 1000 1100 1170 978 1200 1300 1400 2006-07 1310 1500 1300 1230 1200 1760 1200 1356 1600 2007-08 1872 1980 1200 1398 1230 2400 2326 1908 1924 2008-09 2536 2630 2050 2000 1300 3457 2134 2452 3567 TABLE 5. (Total Accounts Opened in Numbers) S.6 TRENDS IN SAVING IN PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6.NO. (Total Accounts opened in Numbers) S.TABLE 5. 5. 2.TRENDS IN SAVING IN PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS .NO 1.

(Y) 25 Var. (Y) 33 Var. (Y) 6 Var.7. (Y) 34 Var. (Y) 8 Var. (Y) 11 Var.Table 5. (Y) 35 Page 35 . (Y) 21 Var. (Y) 22 Var. (Y) 12 Var. (Y) 4 Var. (Y) 10 Var. (Y) 16 Var. (Y) 17 Var. (Y) 7 Var. (Y) 26 Var. (Y) 18 Var. (Y) 27 Var. (Y) 1 Var. (Y) 24 Var. (Y) 3 Var. (Y) 5 Var. (Y) 31 Var. (Y) 19 Var. (Y) 32 Var. (Y) 2 Var. (Y) 14 Var. (Y) 9 Var. (Y) 29 Var. (Y) 30 Var. (Y) 20 Var. Showing the variables used in test and also their respective numbers: Variable name State bank of India State bank of Patiala Bank of Baroda Canara bank Bank of India Oriental bank of commerce Punjab national bank Punjab and sind bank IDBI bank ltd. (Y) 13 Var. (Y) 15 Var. (Y) 23 Var. (Y) 28 Var. ICICI HDFC Indusind Axis Kotak Mahindra State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and Sind Bank Bank of India Specification Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Variable number (y) Var.

(Y) 51 Var. (Y) 53 Var. (Y) 36 Var. (Y) 43 Var. (Y) 44 Var. (Y) 55 Var. (Y) 46 Var. (Y) 49 Var. (Y) 54 Var. (Y) 41 Var. (Y) 45 Var. (Y) 52 Var. (Y) 38 Var. (Y) 47 Var. (Y) 56 Page 36 . (Y) 42 Var. (Y) 50 Var.State Bank of Patiala IDBI ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and Sind Bank Bank of India State Bank of Patiala IDBI ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Var. (Y) 39 Var. (Y) 48 Var. (Y) 40 Var. (Y) 37 Var.

0392 -18.3990 14. (Y) 10 Var. (Y) 24 Var.999 -20. (Y) 19 Var.400 2268.1686 t. (Y) 1 Var. (Y) 7 Var.680 -3.488 -10. (Y) 38 Mean 1.After applying the test for data we get following values: Variable Var.9659 -25.118 3.552 2. (Y) 27 Var. (Y) 17 Var. (Y) 3 Var.1998 26. (Y) 18 Var.367 2.000 CGR -10.800 . (Y) 30 Var. (Y) 28 Var.200 .Table 5.000 1868. 8.360 1.4415* 11.640 .5731 -14.180 .578 Page 37 . (Y) 36 Var.220 2.7227 85.2635 14.020 .9258 -25. (Y) 21 Var.657 4.148 1.925 -2. (Y) 2 Var.288 -20.740 1.8698 -56.4279 -9.1714 19. (Y) 5 Var. (Y) 37 Var.224 -4. (Y) 13 Var.5807** -20.456 -18.8048 -51. (Y) 32 Var. (Y) 31 Var. (Y) 25 Var.260 . (Y) 20 Var.5298 -9.563 -7.200 1.137 .974 1.7937 17.630 -. (Y) 26 Var. (Y) 11 Var.660 .5170 -7.4607 -34.600 1535.3376 19.0493 31.5247 -16.8240 -30.877 -5.240 .751 6.1016 65.1709** -20.420 1. (Y) 8 Var.326 -1.760 1961.8698 4.040 1.480 1.207 . (Y) 9 Var.4216 -3.700 1.001 9.3432 -1. (Y) 23 Var.000 2520. (Y) 35 Var.0898 -1.163 -8. (Y) 14 Var.800 .000 1823.909 5.9652 -9.345 -. (Y) 15 Var. (Y) 29 Var. (Y) 22 Var.0768 16.000 1876.0950* 24.390 4.840 1.000 14267.820 .2215 -26. (Y) 6 Var.500 .200 -2.440 2.4501 31.020 1.1016 -13. (Y) 34 Var.960 1.352 -2.177 -6.value -3.965 .832 -2.879 3.200 .9868 -12.9700 23. (Y) 12 Var. (Y) 16 Var.7888 13.600 1123.000 2.920 1.731 2.093 -7.500 1.934 -1.000 1297. (Y) 33 Var.494 -5.574 7. (Y) 4 Var.531 -1.

187 6.120 1.710 3. (Y) 46 Var.600 1730.000 10.200 1196.8758 25.297 4. (Y) 48 Var.800 1346. (Y) 42 Var.549 1.7346 11.0041 9.949 3.1121** 23.8932 41. (Y) 43 Var.3317 19. (Y) 50 Var.842 5. (Y) 39 Var.800 1022.9159** 40.516 2.5053 2.8515 10.1502 3.130 .200 1972. (Y) 49 Var.000 1643.284 3.215 5. (Y) 41 Var.1933 24.600 1200.5910 34. (Y) 40 Var.444 11.000 1405.Var.000 893.600 5.600 1603.0684 26. (Y) 56 13926. (Y) 47 Var.400 1595. (Y) 51 Var.5560 21.000 1378.4805 13.962 9.000 1919.860 1.7406 9. (Y) 54 Var.546 Page 38 . (Y) 45 Var.6692 11. (Y) 53 Var.600 3073.000 1517. (Y) 55 Var.6423 3.092 4.541 2.000 1572. (Y) 44 Var.800 820. (Y) 52 Var.

192 1.225 -3.1100* .2600* .655 3. (Y) 32 Var.2300* -.522 -4.000 6. (Y) 3 Var. Variable(Y) Var. (Y) 23 Var.144 -2.8900* -.3300* 250. (Y) 24 Var.485 . (Y) 6 Var.1400* -.8000 -18.2800* -.088 3.464 -2.392 -2.962 -5. (Y) 4 Var. (Y) 16 Var.0600* . (Y) 12 Var.667 4. (Y) 30 Var. (Y) 18 Var.1000 415.3000* -.4300* .6400* -.146 -10.184 .5400* .182 -7. (Y) 28 Var.7000* -.058 -.0400* .864 7. (Y) 21 Var. (Y) 26 Var.444 -3. (Y) 13 Var. (Y) 1 Var. (Y) 27 Var. (Y) 36 Trend -. (Y) 15 Var.Showing linear trend function.0300* -1. (Y) 11 Var.0000 T -2.656 -8. (Y) 8 Var.1800* -.761 Page 39 .075 -.000 -5. (Y) 7 Var.694 1. (Y) 2 Var. (Y) 17 Var.392 -1.020 -4. (Y) 29 Var. (Y) 10 Var.8000 310.922 4. (Y) 22 Var. (Y) 31 Var.933* 11.522 1.9600* -.589 -4. (Y) 34 Var.083 -2.796 -1. (Y) 35 Var.0000 322. (Y) 33 Var.2000 364.5000 139.5500* -.0400* -.1500* -.1000* .0500* -.9.0700* -.506 -3.378 -1.0100* -.1200* -.037* 4.0400* -.0000 303. (Y) 14 Var.528 -5.Table 5.410* 2. (Y) 20 Var. (Y) 19 Var.2200* -. (Y) 5 Var. (Y) 25 Var. (Y) 9 Var.0800* -.

675* 2. (Y) 56 620.756* 1.0000 6. (Y) 47 Var.0000 139.131 1.304* 4. (Y) 48 Var. (Y) 38 Var. (Y) 50 Var.6000 339. (Y) 39 Var.455 4.8000 106.365** 2. (Y) 45 Var. (Y) 37 Var. If the calculated value turns out to be lesser than table value be reject the alternative value.8000 116.8000 1318. (Y) 53 Var. (Y) 54 Var.Var. Null hypothesis is accepted when value turn out to be zero.0000 139.333* 2.999 5.0000 633.959 5. (Y) 40 Var.159 4.0000 197.077* 9.393* .7000 470.4000 348.310* 4.475** 5.205 4.8000 250. (Y) 49 Var.973* 2.210** 2. If the calculated value turns out to be greater than table value be reject null hypothesis and accept alternative.0000 3983.6000 128. (Y) 55 Var. (Y) 44 Var. Page 40 .2000 491. (Y) 52 Var.972 3.753 NOTE: ** and* indicate 1% and 5%then given values are significant otherwise non-significant.1000 354. (Y) 46 Var.8000 46. (Y) 43 Var.4000 311.646** 13. (Y) 51 Var.4000 194. (Y) 41 Var. (Y) 42 Var.0000 169.

Then we accept the alternative hypothesis and reject the null hypothesis. for Punjab and sind bank .(38) to var.(35). As the recession invades the financial industry in 2008 but the value shows that the recession has no effect on the NPA s of these banks. (15 ) i. This indicates that during the period the loan disbursement by the banks increased in public sector banks whereas in case of private sectors banks the values are significant with Page 41 . This shows that the only Punjab and sind bank provide the quality of loan to the bank. var.2009 which is indicated by the var.(36) var.(29) to var.(34).the trend value for var. s of the public sector banks of Bathinda region it remains declined. It remains at the position of 1. Shows that there is significant growth in the gross NPA during the period. Whereas Punjab national bank have the less burden for loan recovery. Var. The trend value from the table shows that all the values are significant except for variable (29).e.(1) to var.2% as per the previous year data.(18) for the NPA s of public sector banks compound growth rate for these banks are significant as the number is significant at the 1% it mean that the trend of declining the NPA s during the period of 2004 -2009. var. As the gross NPA s of these two banks high the net NPA s of these two banks also high. As the financial crises due to recession showed its effect in October 2008 on financial sector affected by this crises but recession does not invades in to the public sector banks as per the previous trend NPA.19 to 28 are significant at 1% which shows that gross and net NPA s of private sectors banks as per trend increasing from the period of the2004 to 2009. In case of private sectors banks of Bathinda all the var.(37) are non significant as the values are greater than the given table values. Kotak Mahindra bank and ICICI bank provide the maximum quality loan to the public. 2) The loan disbursed by the public sector banks and private sector banks in the period from the 2004.(42) respectively.INTERPRETATION: 1) The variable var. (37) and var.

The trend values for the all banks are significant except for variable (44) i. As values for these two banks are high it shows that the account opened in these banks increased as in previous years also. The whole analysis of loan disbursement shows that the public and private sectors banks of Bathinda region have not much impact of recession as the number of loan disbursed increased in case of the public sector banks and private sector banks.e. For this case we accept alternative hypothesis.e. for Punjab national bank in public sector and variable 53 i. The value for these two banks are non significant that is greater than the table value. (56) for private sector . There is trend of loan disbursement. (51) for public banks and var. Page 42 . The values is significant for the all other banks it also shows that the there is increase in the account. (52) to var. for HDFC bank in private banks. But as far as recession is concerned it also shows that there is not much impact on the savings trend it also shows increase in the saving trend.respect to the table values we accept the alternative hypothesis. 3) The trend in saving is shown by variable (43) to var.

CHAPTER ±VI CONCLUSION Page 43 .

And saving trend. and private sector banks which represent a huge chunk of the banking system business. On the other hand loan disbursed by banks also increased during this period as the banks provides the quality loans to the customers. Page 44 .s of these banks in Bathinda region. Private banks NPA¶s has shown a sudden spurt in the recent years making them vulnerable. loan disbursed. The net NPA¶s constitute a major percentage of the tangible net worth of the public sector banks. Although It shows the better performance of Public sector banks and private sector banks . Undoubtedly India was one of the few countries where NPA levels are very high as there was an increase in the percentage of gross advances eroding their ROA by major basic points. So . The student t.it can be said that the recession has overall impact on the Indian level it has less impact or negligible impact in Bathinda¶s banking sector. So there is negligible impact of recession .An attempt is made in this study to present a comprehensive picture of performance evaluation of public and private sector banks in Bathinda region ± a study during recession period touching upon various quantitative and qualitative trends in the NPA¶s. Notwithstanding a lower proportion of NPA¶s. In case of saving trend there is increase in saving trend of Bathinda region as number of accounts opened during recession increased which shows no impact. after netting the provision. But the recession have no impact on the NPA.test of data clearly identifies that all the banks in Bathinda region don¶t suffer from recession.

BIBLIOGRAPHY Page 45 .

Management Of Indian Financial Institutions .indianmba. March (2004) Page 46 . Datt. 847 850.P.com/npa of commercial banks y www.com/performance of banking sector. Divya Nigam.New Delhi. K.coolavenue.1ST Edition2007 pp 201-225 y Srivastava R. Y.allbankingsolution. "50".Himalayan Publishing House. Systems and Culture¶. Mumbai.Research Methodology . RBI Bulletin. Himalaya Publishing House .htm y www.htm y www.V µCredit Policy.htm y www. Introduction to Indian Banking System.rbi. IMF working paper .M.M. 4th edition. New Delhi..performance of the Indian banks during liberalization period . Ruddar & Sundharam. Excel Books New Delhi. Dave . C .. Reddy.com/challengesbeforeindianbankingsector. Modern Banking of India.Mumbai..R . Indian Economy. Vikas publishers . 8th Edition.com/perfomance and trend in banking. Vibha Jain: Non-Performing Assets in commercial Banks: Regal Publication. pp.scribd. pp 5-6 y y Sagar R. 1st Edition 2008 p60 y Dr.BOOKS y Vijyaragavan Iyengar. p20 y Agarwal O.htm REFERENCES y Petya Koeva .icraindia.performance evaluation in Indian banking.P.com/conference y www.com/services/rating/structure.1st Edition 2007p p78-79 y y Kothari. WEBSITES y www.

ANNEXURE Page 47 .

67 28.833 .649 258.62 26.800 . 1.0464 3.57 63.1101 -10.600 1123.51 31.000 1919.260 .= .400 .8338 -.1267 12.91 34.179 -5.000 1572.18 41.Y( 7) R-SQ.098 .053 312.3598 -30.2635 .600 1535.82 41.0228 1.R.960 1.8411 F= 15. .4943 2.2444 -.= .760 1961. .794 .9881 F= 249.R.3303 -.Y(13) R-SQ.1539 . 2.200 1.= .288 VAR.531 377.000 893.6328 F= 5.1160 .R.88 Log(A) Log(b) C.91 19.400 2268.499 239.3081 F= 1.500 .955 .80 98.73 19.360 -7.17 Log(A) Log(b) C.867 466.Y( 3) R-SQ.2103 -18.R.Y( 6) R-SQ.G.146 -3.G.420 1.927 -20.34 15.8006 -6.R. .4229 F= 2.000 2.3067 .230 -7.200 1196.920 1.25 24.G.R. -.000 1297.000 1517.4357 -.Y( 2) R-SQ.0662 . 1.14 42.3747 -.343 VAR.83 30.345 VAR.365 -20.0084 -.600 1200.800 13926.8240 .00 Log(A) Log(b) C.0853 .0257 1.500 1.3828 -.192 2220.501 -3.77 16.83 EXPONENTIAL FORM PARAMETER ESTIMATE S.0510 -.R.458 Page 48 .020 1.792 537.224 VAR.= .984 -.423 520. t-VALUE VAR.Y( 8) R-SQ.1709 .05 40.2348 .120 .228 .03 14.= .0168 1.463 .703 1026.240 .52 9.9908 F= 321.987 -6.0925 7.1050 -9.9659 .23 30.820 .9863 -.2298 -20.040 1.54 28.E.5298 .800 1346. 1.786 -18.41 33.200 .4607 .152 692.198 622.G.12 19.383 .9889 F= 267.326 VAR. .G.5807 .71 28.800 .000 14267.9309 F= 40.= .94 17.00 20.147 2.640 .12 22.8392 11.360 1.01 67.4203 .91 55.020 .1246 .869 1.Y(11) R-SQ.156 -1.600 1730.557 .1203 .265 -6.Y(12) R-SQ.54 30.5907 20.= .600 1603.136 .8804 -2.Y( 1) R-SQ.G.3016 -26.G.579 910.480 1.77 At 5% 4.96 40.= .23 33.788 444.G.24 109.20 Log(A) Log(b) C.030 932.= .824 6092.4746 8.6880 23.400 S.61 37.093 VAR.05 27.7393 -.Y( 5) R-SQ.170 454.331 .075 .78 32.292 -1.999 VAR.150 .150 .70 15.440 2.0376 2.60 At 1% Results of HSc10: cgr cgr VARIABLE Y( 1) Y( 2) Y( 3) Y( 4) Y( 5) Y( 6) Y( 7) Y( 8) Y( 9) Y(10) Y(11) Y(12) Y(13) Y(14) Y(15) Y(16) Y(17) Y(18) Y(19) Y(20) Y(21) Y(22) Y(23) Y(24) Y(25) Y(26) Y(27) Y(28) Y(29) Y(30) Y(31) Y(32) Y(33) Y(34) Y(35) Y(36) Y(37) Y(38) Y(39) Y(40) Y(41) Y(42) Y(43) Y(44) Y(45) Y(46) Y(47) Y(48) Y(49) Y(50) Y(51) Y(52) Y(53) Y(54) MEAN 1.0392 .877 VAR.4092 -. -.000 1868.R.050 293.5249 -1.172 .1640 .4207 -34.90 66.1391 3.Table values use: 2.80 Log(A) Log(b) C.290 -15.G.897 113.27 Log(A) -2.0200 1.141 .554 -16.483 -1.200 .117 -6.000 1405.90 45. -.276 .966 545.= .0118 -1.167 .1446 -13.579 -5.914 -17.G.4216 .7674 F= 9.0365 -3.624 .0558 .0833 F= . 19.584 473.925 VAR.R.82 23.000 1823.G.563 VAR.29 21.1338 8.000 1876.752 151.177 VAR.9258 F= 37.8994 F= 26.137 VAR.62 34.0315 3.516 C.0029 F= .42 Log(A) Log(b) C.46 19.000 2520.2890 -25.97 34.24 5.82 Log(A) Log(b) C.000 1378. .818 243.0708 6.= .3432 .660 .771 -6.06 33.5340 -.600 3073.274 -2.1248 -.160 .456 VAR.0363 3.Y( 4) R-SQ.9853 6.1034 -9.9652 .986 -4.R.51 30. -.800 1022.220 2.1046 .0756 .219 1.1181 .82 Log(A) Log(b) C.193 -1.59 53.0685 -.34 Log(A) Log(b) C.06 18.0356 2.G.V.429 244.490 .063 .98 36.90 Log(A) Log(b) C.180 .Y(10) R-SQ.2264 -20.44 Log(A) Log(b) C.024 365.97 10.= .13 24.0420 1.2215 .R.740 1.39 Log(A) Log(b) C.401 -3.093 -.65 20.R.50 48.000 1643.1016 .8436 -.Y(14) R-SQ.389 .R.Y( 9) R-SQ.492 821.200 1972.649 66.9283 F= 38.= .G. .840 1.D.19 Log(A) Log(b) C.700 1.0350 3.410 -2.= .

089 3.2759 .6113 F= 4.= .0998 16.1827 .G. 6.404 -.3606 F= 1.3184 F= 1. -2.521 -3.522 VAR.3800 -.665 9.4137 .Y( 2) R-SQ.573 -.0611 3.0342 14.R.2655 30.207 VAR.6542 -.1244 9.32 Log(A) Log(b) C.R.1519 16.8929 F= 25.8396 F= 15.13 Log(A) Log(b) 7.= .4928 .563 .9400 -.2694 -1.Y(14) R-SQ.00 a b .2201 .42 a b .524 -1.1400 .8048 .589 1.677 -3.3990 .0800 .3872 .182 VAR.1342 15.Y( 6) R-SQ.0400 .809 -2.5900 -1.G.= .071 -5.Y(23) R-SQ.1133 .033 .148 VAR.089 -4.Y(17) R-SQ.Y(28) R-SQ.5170 .352 VAR.1300 . -.4700 .995 -5.062 3. 7.0401 4.56 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.32 a b .= .4662 2.Y( 1) R-SQ.50 a b 1.208 -2.= .1250 F= .36 a b 1.Y( 5) R-SQ.0833 F= .75 a b 8.146 VAR.1905 .R.8900 1.8955 F= 25.= .000 VAR.9560 F= 65.Y(26) R-SQ.3082 .163 VAR.373 -7.1905 .Y(16) R-SQ.Y(27) R-SQ.8167 F= 13.0600 .7227 F= 7.Y(19) R-SQ.4197 -1.79 Log(A) Log(b) C.0327 10.G.0383 .8982 F= 26.0503 5.631 -1.4106 .1322 .561 1.713 -2.832 VAR.Y(21) R-SQ.3978 103.= .0100 18.093 5.0929 1.1237 13.Y(10) R-SQ.497 -2.70 a b 2.0574 . -1.1821 19.301 1.R.G.682 .= .7525 F= 9.2624 F= 1.R.000 717. -.0300 .= .9700 .3214 F= 1.6762 -10.485 VAR.= .822 -6.2600 .0734 -7.97 45.1669 .0109 F= .52 Log(A) Log(b) C.1600 .4450 .8952 F= 25.Y( 4) R-SQ.9730 F= 108.909 VAR.5630 -.0551 2.8184 F= 13.8022 .2364 .= .5731 .0768 .5892 6.60 Log(A) Log(b) C.12 a b 3.4900 -.7888 .0442 3.0400 .62 Log(A) Log(b) C.454 .03 a b 3.71 Log(A) Log(b) C.455 -1.001 VAR.1186 -.Y(18) R-SQ.Y(11) R-SQ.1206 .645 5.7688 .0115 2.645 -8.2026 .Y(20) R-SQ.R.8681 F= 19.1709 1. .1270 .155 2.298 44.552 VAR.392 VAR. -.Y(55) Y(56) 1595.= .G.1189 13.8713 F= 20.6300 -.974 VAR.= .1045 -9. -.Y( 3) R-SQ.= .7070 .59 a 2.4300 .184 2.6149 F= 4.1386 14.1167 13.Y(30) R-SQ.9794 25.8698 .G.698 376.Y(15) R-SQ.0646 .= .9868 .0100 .1931 .1083 .0713 7.09 Log(A) LINEAR TREND FUNCTION VAR.6194 85.= .R.= .1337 -12.494 VAR.22 Log(A) Log(b) C.972 -5.= .655 VAR.800 820.0823 9.7200 -.0364 3.Y(22) R-SQ.R.9258 .1466 .6862 F= 6.0893 7.9600 .7000 .5377 -4.4356 F= 2.2963 .2897 F= 1.6699 .Y(15) R-SQ.3000 .223 -2.4700 -. -2.R.9278 -.800 6.0399 53.0664 6.1754 3.5247 .G.2318 4.= .3333 F= 1.Y(31) R-SQ. .0224 .Y(17) R-SQ.0956 F= .2310 .1221 8.4279 .084 -3.1400 -.00 a b .0898 .020 VAR.0570 4.019 -5.0400 -.= .180 -3.65 a b 2.4048 .6050 F= 4.070 3.R.Y(29) R-SQ.Y( 9) R-SQ.8394 -56.423 .3943 .367 -10.R.0145 .= .3261 .731 VAR.189 2.009 -2.464 VAR.G.3364 .00 a b .192 VAR.= .184 VAR.= .9492 F= 56.5667 .95 Log(A) Log(b) C.= .1658 -.= .Y( 7) R-SQ.2800 .Y( 8) R-SQ.6400 .G.9891 3.G.8698 .364 VAR.7000 .2419 44.82 a b 2.2197 24.3404 6.0115 20.1016 .= .Y(22) R-SQ.1818 4.= .841 2.R.72 Log(A) Log(b) C.7800 -.= .621 -4.1200 .0195 2.= .G.G.89 Log(b) C.= .6431 -.1400 -.= .60 Log(A) Log(b) C.1292 .3310 .9364 -3.172 -2.2982 106.5736 F= 4.2890 -25. 1.0800 .522 .1569 -14.Y(16) R-SQ.4571 F= 2.Y(18) R-SQ.378 VAR.525 1.8378 -.5374 .0423 F= .7684 F= 9.0383 11.1669 .075 VAR.27 a b .0832 9.Y(13) R-SQ.4292 .630 VAR.0203 2.48 a b 3.2453 -.G.2300 .668 -3. 7.106 -1.Y(23) R-SQ.0950 .69 Log(A) Log(b) C.53 a b .346 Page 49 .962 VAR.Y(24) R-SQ.9743 F= 113.965 VAR.6500 -.R.5500 .392 VAR.1891 .4127 -1.9200 -.29 a b 1.Y(12) R-SQ.1294 5.0383 .487 -10.1100 .0696 8.4200 -.R.879 VAR.0574 17.G.R.1714 .= .0400 .4125 .43 a b .2728 .9805 -.934 VAR.9202 F= 34.1386 14.0674 .680 VAR.03 a b .511 -1.237 10.0722 6.= .1247 5.6533 F= 5.1400 -.200 VAR.522 VAR.9335 F= 42.Y(25) R-SQ.1001 -.8654 F= 19.2511 .4253 6.565 -4.0623 -.6510 F= 5.G.5051 65.30 a b 3.R.= .3906 .796 Log(b) C.517 1.R.2077 23.058 1.1500 .= .73 Log(A) Log(b) C.13 Log(A) Log(b) C. .= .Y(32) R-SQ. .5544 .506 VAR.3100 -.Y(19) R-SQ.= .0503 5.488 VAR.6500 -. -.7337 -51.2396 .366 -2.8600 .07 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.656 VAR.8000 F= 12.882 -8.Y(20) R-SQ.298 -5.444 VAR.Y(21) R-SQ.R. 2.1178 5.0757 8.21 a b 5.0500 .5876 -.04 Log(A) Log(b) C. -.= .G.= .7227 .225 VAR.9252 F= 37.= .1795 -16.40 a b .= .589 VAR.0332 .

1121 .549 VAR.574 VAR.= .1744 19.150 4.2178 24.R.7043 F= 7.7406 .131 VAR.224 6.8977 F= 26.8697 F= 20.860 VAR.000 2.G.0482 6.1306 .282 7.Y(36) R-SQ.R.9425 F= 49.6645 VAR.0000 41. VAR.0531 5.0000 100.= .144 C.8000 81.= .870 -.000 VAR.6200 41.Y(43) R-SQ.2217 28. 2.0000 46.R.8307 .Y(38) R-SQ.864 Log(b) C.6000 225.914 5.8000 93.528 1.G.187 VAR.R.Y(49) R-SQ.G.= .G.2942 .0718 .44 a b 961.7382 72.224 2.8800 .0864 6.1763 .6600 -.Y(27) R-SQ.1502 . -1.93 a b 660.6000 58.6423 .6101 1.516 VAR.8000 193.675 Log(b) C.66 a b 967.= .037 9.1074 6.Y(40) R-SQ.1946 21.0700 .6225 F= 4.= .01 Log(A) Log(b) C.4654 .9159 .52 Log(A) 6.045 5.12 Log(A) Log(b) 6.0901 169.528 VAR.8700 -.393 6.= .= .8309 .9251 F= 37.0039 .= .Y(37) R-SQ.9733 .9761 F= 122.755 5.306 2.4729 128.Y(47) R-SQ.0000 15.7367 3.= .8515 .Y(35) R-SQ.0578 7.Y(29) R-SQ.= .73 a b 1174.0000 206.4260 .9076 F= 29.G.Y(31) R-SQ.R.= .= .= .1000 412.Y(32) R-SQ.6478 .067 4.5560 .8984 F= 26.8968 3.R. 6.876 1.95 Log(A) 7.172 8.3271 35.= .297 VAR.Y(42) R-SQ.1030 10.05 Log(A) Log(b) C.210 C.8000 176.4000 262.G.16 a b 9972.0000 333.6563 F= 5.7200 -.7568 40.569 2.1577 .0270 3.= .1599 17.933 .761 VAR.4000 3138.R.0000 492.4000 67.077 C.3306 VAR.608 9.2713 31.965 .6447 F= 5.1168 .Y(42) R-SQ.2749 VAR.0130 .8909 F= 24.669 3.8959 .G.520 5.922 C.= .1062 11. VAR.G.083 VAR.3379 40.1266 .0594 7.= .4000 79.5735 4.4079 535.3070 2.2000 271.0530 F= .7324 .771 3.Y(44) R-SQ.5899 F= 4.9336 39. Page 50 .= .= .5648 F= 3.Y(34) R-SQ.2735 31.= .5545 F= 3.326 9.8409 1318.= .751 VAR.10 a b 2689.977 6.04 a b 1210.5000 45.8802 F= 22.00 a b .2200 58.6704 .6806 F= 6.0217 2.9779 .1969 .010 5.4415 3.680 2. VAR.= .3600 .471 11.2153 .8223 .03 a b 540.2000 53.1998 .1403 14.3317 .G.7346 .233 2.680 4.6243 F= 4.0663 .Y(45) R-SQ.949 VAR.8898 F= 24.0497 .2975 VAR.2200 .1219 .8758 .= .Y(46) R-SQ.8662 620.103 2. VAR. VAR.694 6.0504 6.Y(34) R-SQ.710 VAR.207 6.4606 139.1917 .Y(33) R-SQ.1198 .647 2.3796 33.9526 F= 60.088 VAR.1071 .R.Y(28) R-SQ.3124 VAR.673 2.5829 139.R.= .7679 250.002 -2.9351 .8178 F= 13. 7.G.159 7.8491 F= 16.Y(48) R-SQ.0000 137.Y(35) R-SQ.657 VAR.9454 F= 51.5400 .5887 F= 4.9072 .2000 310.0384 3.770 3.34 a b 1.72 a b 2316. 1.3300 .950 -5.1287 13.1813 19.Y(25) R-SQ.= .15 a b 879.367 VAR.0361 4.8875 F= 23.1933 .= .23 a b 902.959 Log(b) C.343 1.0200 9.600 VAR.R.29 Log(A) Log(b) 6.48 Log(A) Log(b) 6.7003 F= 7.0000 326. VAR.200 7.3508 .Y(44) R-SQ.127 4.Y(46) R-SQ.8000 946.6904 3983.4501 .1507 7.G.0394 4.370 7.578 VAR.475 Log(b) C. 5.0000 197.98 Log(A) Log(b) C.89 a b 764.8000 188.32 a b 896.0887 -1.1026 -2.G. 6.6216 6.94 Log(A) 6.604 4.058 4.86 Log(A) Log(b) C.0157 F= .0476 5.2300 .= .= .Y(45) R-SQ.G.0352 4.0895 .7478 -18.Y(37) R-SQ.0000 84.0382 4.2877 43.312 2.5000 149.G.4680 16.G.1598 .= .410 VAR.2985 .0368 4.3376 .0691 364.4805 .983 1.33 a b 685.6942 .5672 F= 3.0277 9.9169 F= 33.7937 .75 Log(A) 6.121 2.0306 3.2264 54.Y(26) R-SQ.R.6146 415.7669 1.1800 .1686 .1020 10.3000 1368.6033 322.= .88 Log(A) Log(b) C.9267 F= 37.3825 31.950 4.0493 .1000 .0283 .432 5.93 Log(A) Log(b) C.R.Y(43) R-SQ.785 9. VAR.7902 65.0000 279.23 a b 578.G.9696 F= 95.390 VAR.933 C.0389 4.0311 F= .50 Log(A) Log(b) C.738 4.Y(41) R-SQ.7047 F= 7.39 a b .2000 626.2374 26.= .Y(40) R-SQ.8929 F= 25.423 2.R.1291 .962 VAR.667 VAR.864 2.R.0654 194.072 1.17 a b 1178.2799 76.= .1670 . VAR.G.058 Log(b) C.108 3.46 Log(A) Log(b) 6.2977 4.= .1101 11.= .0649 7.0876 9.Y(33) R-SQ.0000 1633.0000 98.Y(50) R-SQ.= .= .8552 F= 17.1882 348.8176 F= 13.27 a b 603.885 2. VAR.R.19 a b 1062.Y(39) R-SQ.850 4.44 a b -.0000 62.73 a b 1098.6188 69.= .Y(47) R-SQ.3188 4.9495 F= 56.474 -2.215 VAR.310 C.Y(39) R-SQ.333 VAR.2182 .2866 .7873 .541 VAR.0900 -.2115 23.= .R.0000 59.5912 F= 4.Y(38) R-SQ.511 6.118 VAR.14 Log(A) Log(b) C.7000 226.Y(36) R-SQ.9298 -.R.1879 2.b -.430 4.6365 354.= .G.Y(24) R-SQ.4423 139. 3.9706 F= 99.4890 6.R.218 .5776 97. 6.0323 3.= .15 Log(A) Log(b) 6.R.5413 54.07 a b -.Y(30) R-SQ.6180 303.2964 54.973 6.9558 F= 64.3137 71.130 VAR.1000 68.555 7.5805 F= 4.053 7.0918 .Y(41) R-SQ.G.= .41 Log(A) 8.

0604 8.5910 .202 3.8932 .401 4.6000 106.2126 .Y(51) R-SQ.0923 9.546 VAR.8000 591.4325 F= 2.Y(53) R-SQ.= . 28.2000 351.R.7740 F= 10.8000 70.8828 F= 22.0041 .1131 7.052 5.2875 116.2743 .57 Log(A) Log(b) 6.304 Log(b) C.5991 .506 4.G. VAR.999 6.= .455 C.205 6.67 Log(A) Log(b) C.0641 8.0279 .0827 11.29 Log(A) Log(b) 6.5409 .5719 VAR.033 13.5053 .8477 .G.0000 25.8912 F= 24.G.3756 .= .481 3.VAR.475 11.Y(48) R-SQ.544 1.8000 351.0292 .R.7045 20.837 4.1917 197.2993 34.G.597 1.7000 36.9811 F= 155.6941 33.198 4.444 VAR.Y(52) R-SQ.6000 236.Y(52) R-SQ.1050 11.= .365 C.0610 6.67 a b 18.= .7168 F= 7.0878 .Y(49) R-SQ.0148 32.092 VAR.1449 31.9224 F= 35.6692 .Y(55) R-SQ.957 4.8912 VAR.12 Log(A) Log(b) C.59 a b 70.G.839 2.4000 105.= .646 VAR.9347 236.8000 109.4515 250.068 5.62 Log(A) 5.972 VAR.53 a b 183.G.59 a b 496.2014 339.98 a b 704.0000 52.05 a b 709.76 a b 300.R.Y(55) R-SQ.27 a b 553.Y(51) R-SQ.7759 470.001 4. VAR.1368 .Y(54) R-SQ.577 3.8545 F= 17.= .7907 .601 12.512 1.6035 .3000 120.R.0413 5.9419 3.499 5.= .9435 491.0000 106.4747 F= 2.Y(56) R-SQ.0084 .284 VAR.8015 F= 12.3810 .716 5.Y(50) R-SQ.2000 71.= .4000 362.0684 .8533 633.8639 F= 19.Y(53) R-SQ.8000 178.4777 .4000 235.9849 F= 195.9159 F= 32.R.= .2003 .3472 41.= .756 Log(b) C.4813 311.197 3.2392 2.R. VAR.2221 44.71 a b 846.Y(56) R-SQ.3018 3. 1.= .8606 F= 18.9084 F= 29.2024 .753 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Page 51 . VAR.= .0000 174.842 VAR.120 VAR.= .2232 25.2358 26.= .62 Log(A) 6.Y(54) R-SQ.

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