Scenario Planning scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some

organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Traditional forecasting techniques often fail to predict significant changes in the firm's external environment, especially when the change is rapid and turbulent or when information is limited. Consequently, important opportunities and serious threats may be overlooked and the very survival of the firm may be at stake. Scenario planning is a tool specifically designed to deal with major, uncertain shifts in the firm's environment. Some of the benefits of scenario planning include:  Managers are forced to break out of their standard world view, exposing blind spots that might otherwise be overlooked in the generally accepted forecast.  Decision-makers are better able to recognize a scenario in its early stages, should it actually be the one that unfolds.  Managers are better able to understand the source of disagreements that often occur when they are envisioning different scenarios without realizing it. Process The part of the overall process which is radically different from most other forms of long-range planning is the central section, the actual production of the scenarios. Even this, though, is relatively simple, at its most basic level. As derived from the approach most commonly used by Shell, it follows six steps: 1. Decide drivers for change/assumptions 2. Bring drivers together into a viable framework 3. Produce 7-9 initial mini-scenarios 4. Reduce to 2-3 scenarios 5. Draft the scenarios 6. Identify the issues arising Human resource forecasting techniques( include 4 techniques and give examples) HRF is the prediction of future levels of demand for, and supply of, workers and skills at organizational, regional, or national level. A variety of techniques are used in manpower forecasting, including the statistical analysis of current trends and the use of mathematical models. At national level, these include the analysis of census statistics; at organizational level, projections of future requirements may be made from sales and production figures. Human resource forecasting forms part of the human resource planning process. 1. Nominal Group A group of four or five participants is asked to present their views regarding labor forecasts. These views are written down, with no discussion until all of the members have advanced their positions. The group then discusses the information presented and, subsequently, a final ballot is taken to determine its judgment. The nominal group technique (NGT) is a decision making method for use among groups of many sizes, who want to make their decision quickly, as by a vote, but want everyone's opinions taken into account (as opposed to traditional voting, where only the largest group is considered) [1] . The 1

method of tallying is the difference. First, every member of the group gives their view of the solution, with a short explanation. Then, duplicate solutions are eliminated from the list of all solutions, and the members proceed to rank the solutions, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and so on. Some Facilitators will encourage the sharing and discussion of reasons for the choices made by each group member, thereby identifying common ground, and a plurality of ideas and approaches. This diversity often allows the creation of a hybrid idea (combining parts of two or more ideas), often found to be even better than those ideas being initially considered. In the basic method, the numbers each solution receives are totaled, and the solution with the highest (i.e. most favored) total ranking is selected as the final decision. There are variations on how this technique is used. For example, it can identify strengths versus areas in need of development, rather than be used as a decision-making voting alternative. Also, options do not always have to be ranked, but may be evaluated more subjectively. 2. Delphi Technique This technique calls for a facilitator to solicit and collate Written, expert opinions on labor forecasts. After answers are received, a summary of the information is developed and distributed t the experts, who are then requested to submitted revised forecasts. experts never meet face-to-face, but rather communicate through the facilitator. The Delphi method ( /ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactiveforecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.[1] In the standard version, the experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.[2] Work force Planning Workforce Planning is the business process for ensuring that an organization has suitable access to talent to ensure future business success. Access to talent includes considering all potential access sources (employment, contracting out, partnerships, changing business activities to modify the types of talent required, etc.). By talent is meant the skills, knowledge, predisposition and ability to undertake required activities including decisions making. Strategic Planning considers the business risks concerning insufficient, disrupted, mis-deployed talent on the organization's business priorities. Workforce planning is considered an iterative discipline. The cycle of workforce planning includes filling resource requests, analyzing resource utilization, forecasting capacity, managing and identifying the resources (human) to fill that capacity, and then re-starting the cycle Trend AnalysisTrend analysis is helpful because moving with trends, and not against them, will lead to profit for an investor. Trend Analysis is the practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information. In some fields of study, the term "trend analysis" has more 2

formally-defined meanings. Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned. Computerized Forecast expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert.[1] Expert systems are designed to solve complex problems by reasoning about knowledge, like an expert, and not by following the procedure of adeveloper as is the case in conventional programming.[2][3][4] The first expert systems were created in the 1970s and then proliferated in the 1980s.[5] Expert systems were among the first truly successful forms of AI software.[6][7][8][9][10][11] An expert system has a unique structure, different from traditional programs. It is divided into two parts, one fixed, independent of the expert system: the inference engine, and one variable: the knowledge base. To run an expert system, the engine reasons about the knowledge base like a human[12]. In the 80's a third part appeared: a dialog interface to communicate with users.[13] This ability to conduct a conversation with users was later called "conversational".[14][15]

Forecasting has an important role in successful human resource management of a company. By predicting the number of employees to be hired and also by estimating and knowing their quality, a company would get the best people for the right places and at the right time. This is necessary if a company wants to compete in the global market. The typology suggested by Miles and Snow helps a company to understand itself. Then, the company could apply a certain forecasting method in order to match requirements and availabilities afterward. 1. what are the cost that are borne by organization when planning for new employees?(22 mks) The ongoing process of systematic planning to achieve optimum use of an organization's most valuable asset - its human resources. The objective of human resource (HR) planning is to ensure the best fit between employees and jobs, while avoiding manpower shortages or surpluses. The three key elements of the HR planning process are forecasting labor demand, analyzing present labor supply, and balancing projected labor demand and supply. Employment costs fall into several broad categories: Recruiting Expenses. Finding technically qualified people who can function effectively in a rapidly growing start up venture is not easy task. In an earlier column we discussed the economic alternatives for head hunting. For this column it suffices for me to remind you to be sure to devote the time to make sure that your hires are as close to perfect “10s” as possible. Anything less will be a drag on your business. Basic Salary. Basic salaries vary all over the place depending on the industry and a variety of other factors. There are data that can help you calibrate an appropriate base salary. For example, the Massachusetts Software Council puts out an annual Compensation Survey and there are similar publications in other industries. Be sure to establish rational salary ranges given your growth plans. This means that in most cases there should not be great salary differentials between early hires and later employees- any "risk component" of being an early hire should be made up in the equity compensation component. 3

Employment Taxes. In preparing your personnel budget be sure to include allowances for Social Security Workmen’s compensation premiums will depend on the category of your employee, with clerical at about 0.3% of salary and manufacturing at 7.5%. Benefits. Basic salary and employment taxes are a minimum- in most cases you will need to provide some benefits. Typical benefits for a $50,000 salaried employee include life insurance ($150) and health coverage ($2,000-$3,000 for single persons; $6,000-$7,2000 for families - http://www.ahrq.gov). Other benefits could include long-term disability insurance ($250), dental plans ($240-$650), dependent care assistance, tuition reimbursement, retirement plans etc. These involve actual payment of benefits by the employer. There are also "self funded" plans where the employer contribution is the administrative costs- e.g. 401(k) savings plans where a portion of the employee’s salary is withheld. Vacation is another cost but is subsumed in the basic salary. The costs to this point (basic salary, employment taxes and benefits) are typically in the 1.25 to 1.4 times base salary range- e.g. the cost range for a $50,000/year employee might $62,500 to $70,000. Space. Unless you are hiring traveling salespeople, you need to provide some physical space to house the new employee. Obviously the rent per square foot varies depending on the fanciness and location of the facility. But how many square feet does an employee need? Again this varies but there are some guidelines. Work cubes are typically 8' x 8' in size and private offices range in size. In high tech figure on 225 to 250 square feet per employee when you add in common space. Furnishing the space, even with used work cubes will probably run $2,000 at a minimum. Other Equipment. The basics these days for high tech or office workers have to include a computer and telephone. Even with decreases in PC prices, figure on $1,000+ for a computer, $500 to several thousand for software and $250 to $300 initially per telephone handset on average when you factor in installation. Don’t forget the periodic expensive upgrades you will need to your LAN and voice mail systems. Other Approaches. Instead of figuring out each cost component separately you can develop some simple metrics. For example, one entrepreneur I talked to is in the engineering services business in which his people are billed on projects on a time and materials basis. The entrepreneur takes the employee’s base salary and multiplies it by 1.25 to cover employment taxes and benefits. She then multiplies that number by 1.75 to cover rent, equipment etc. Because some management personnel are needed and some of the employee time is spent in non-billable technology development, she multiplies that number by 1.25. She figures that for her professional engineering consulting business the fully functioning managed employee costs about 2.7 times the base salary. She has a different metric for planning the manufacturing side of her business. In both cases even though the metrics are simple and easy to apply it has taken her some time to really understand the cost components of her business segments in order to develop the metric. She notes although that her "rule of thumb" is helpful in planning rapid growth, like any rule of thumb the underlying assumptions need to be recalibrated periodically. Hiring is always a difficult and important activity, especially in a rapid growth business. There is always too much to do and often the new entrepreneur has little experience in hiring. It is the rare case when you can hire exactly to meet your needs. Delay in hiring and you will have trouble meeting your plan, hire too quickly and you may burn through cash before revenue catches up. Consider using independent contractors to cover peak periods if your business does not have too steep a learning curve. One of my clients staffs at 85% of forecasted needs and contracts out the remaining 15%. Although you can’t control the hiring process exactly you can understand the economic metrics of what you are doing and that can help you avoid some really unpleasant results. 4

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Purposes of HRP:The general purpose of human resource planning has been described, but there are specific purposes in crucial areas of management which HR planning servers:

Determining recruitment needs: An important prerequisite to the process of recruitment is to avoid problems of unexpected shortages, wastage, blockages in the promotion flow and needless redundancies. Determining training needs: Planning training programmes are very important. These programmes not only improve quantity but also quality in terms of the skills required by the organization. Management development: A succession of trained and experienced managers is essential to the effectiveness of the organization, and this depends on accurate information about present and future requirements in all management posts. Balancing the cost between the utilization of plant and workforce: Cost balancing includes comparision of costs between these two resources in different combinations and selecting the optimum. While costing projects cost balancing plays an important role. Industrial relation: the businesses plan will, of necessity; make assumptions about productivity of the human resource. It will have an impact on the organization's industrial relations strategies.

In practice, HR planning is concerned with the demand and supply of labour and problems arising from the process of reconciling these factors. Plans and decisions of any system follow the analyses of demand and supply. Features of Human Resource Planning 1. It is future oriented: – Human Resource Planning is forward-looking. It involves forecasting the manpower needs for a future period so that adequate and timely provisions may be made to meet the needs. 2. It is a continuous process: – Human Resource Planning is a continuous process because the demand and supply of Human Resource keeps fluctuating throughout the year. Human Resource Planning has to be reviewed according to the needs of the organisation and changing environment. 3. Integral part of Corporate Planning: – Manpower planning is an integral part of corporate planning because without a corporate plan there can be no manpower planning. 4. Optimum utilisation of resources: – The basic purpose of Human Resource Planning is to make optimum utilisation of organisation’s current and future human resources. 5. Both Qualitative and Quantitative aspect: – Human Resource Planning considers both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of Human Resource Management, ‘Quantitative’ meaning the right number of people and ‘Qualitative’ implying the right quality of manpower required in the organisation. 6. Long term and Short term: – Human Resource Planning is both Long-term and short-term in nature. Just like planning which is long-term and short-term depending on the need of the hour, Human Resource Planning keeps long-term goals and short-term goals in view while predicting and forecasting the demand and supply of Human Resource. 6

7. Involves study of manpower requirement: – Human Resource Planning involves the study of manpower availability and the manpower requirement in the organisation. Objectives of Human Resource Planning 1. Optimum utilisation of human resources currently employed in the organisation. 2. To reduce imbalance in distribution and allocation of manpower in organisation for various activities. 3. To ensure that the organisation is well-equipped with the required Quantity and Quality of manpower on a sustained basis. 4. To anticipate the impact of technology on jobs and resources. 5. To control cost of Human Resources employed, used and maintained in the organisation. 6. To provide a basis for management development programmes. 7. To ensure optimum contribution and satisfaction of the personnel with reasonable expenditure. 8. To recruit and retain human resource of required Quantity and Quality. Need for Human Resource Planning 1. Shortage of Skills: – These days we find shortage of skills in people. So it is necessary to plan for such skilled people much in advance than when we actually need them. Non-availability of skilled people when and where they are needed is an important factor which prompts sound Human Resource Planning. 2. Frequent Labour Turnover: – Human Resource Planning is essential because of frequent labour turnover which is unavoidable by all means. Labour turnover arises because of discharges, marriages, promotion, transfer etc which causes a constant ebb and flow in the workforce in the organisation. 3. Changing needs of technology: – Due to changes in technology and new techniques of production, existing employees need to be trained or new blood injected into an organisation. 4. Identify areas of surplus or shortage of personnel: – Manpower planning is needed in order to identify areas with a surplus of personnel or areas in which there is a shortage of personnel. If there is a surplus, it can be re-deployed, or if there is a shortage new employees can be procured. 5. Changes in organisation design and structure: – Due to changes in organisation structure and design we need to plan the required human resources right from the beginning. Problems with Human Resource Planning 1. Resistance by Employers: – Many employers resist Human Resource Planning as they think that it increases the cost of manpower for the management. Further, employers feel that Human Resource Planning is not necessary as candidates will be available as and when required in the country due to the growing unemployment situation. 2. Resistance by Employees: – Employees resist Human Resource Planning as it increases the workload on the employees and prepares programmes for securing human resources mostly from outside.

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3. Inadequacies in quality of information: – Reliable information about the economy, other industries, labour markets, trends in human resources etc are not easily available. This leads to problems while planning for human resources in the organisation. 4. Uncertainties: – Uncertainties are quite common in human resource practices in India due to absenteeism, seasonal unemployment, labour turnover etc. Further, the uncertainties in the industrial scenario like technological changes and marketing conditions also cause imperfection in Human Resource Planning. It is the uncertainties that make Human Resource Planning less reliable. 5. Time and expense: – Human Resource Planning is a time-consuming and expensive exercise. A good deal of time and cost are involved in data collection and forecasting. Guidelines for making Human Resource Planning effective 1. Adequate information system: – The main problem faced in Human Resource Planning is the lack of information. So an adequate Human resource database should be maintained/developed for better coordinated and more accurate Human Resource Planning. 2. Participation: – To be successful, Human Resource Planning requires active participation and coordinated efforts on the part of operating executives. Such participation will help to improve understanding of the process and thereby, reduce resistance from the top management. 3. Adequate organisation: – Human Resource Planning should be properly organised; a separate section or committee may be constituted within the human resource department to provide adequate focus and to coordinate the planning efforts at various levels. 4. Human Resource Planning should be balanced with corporate planning: – Human resource plans should be balanced with the corporate plans of the enterprise. The methods and techniques used should fit the objectives, strategies and environment of the particular organisation. 5. Appropriate time horizon: – The period of manpower plans should be appropriate according to the needs and circumstances of the specific enterprise. The size and structure of the enterprise as well as the changing aspirations of the people should be taken into consideration. Factors affecting Human Resource Plans External factor: They are the factors which affect the Human Resource Planning externally. They include:1. Government policies: – Policies of the government like labour policy, industrial policy, policy towards reserving certain jobs for different communities and sons-of-the-soil etc affect Human Resource Planning. 2. Level of economic development: – Level of economic development determines the level of human resource development in the country and thereby the supply of human resources in the future in the country.

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3. Information Technology: – Information technology brought amazing shifts in the way business operates. These shifts include business process reengineering, enterprise resource planning and Supply Chain Management. These changes brought unprecedented reduction in human resource and increase in software specialists. Example: – Computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided technology (CAT) also reduced the existing requirement of human resource. 4. Level of Technology: – Technology is the application of knowledge to practical tasks which lead to new inventions and discoveries. The invention of the latest technology determines the kind of human resources required. 5. Business Environment: – Business environment means the internal and external factors influencing the business. Business environmental factors influences the volume of mix of production and thereby the supply of human resources in the future in the country. 6. International factors: – International factors like the demand and supply of Human resources in various countries also affects Human Resource Planning . Internal factors: 1. Company Strategies: – The organisation’s policies and strategies relating to expansion, diversification etc. determines the human resource demand in terms of Quantity and Quality 2. Human Resource policies: – Human Resource policies of the company regarding quality of human resources, compensation level, quality of working conditions etc. influence Human Resource Planning. 3. Job analysis: – Job analysis means detailed study of the job including the skills needed for a particular job. Human Resource Planning is based on job analysis which determines the kind of employees to be procured. 4. Time Horizon: – Company’s planning differs according to the competitive environment i.e. companies with stable competitive environment can plan for the long run whereas firms without a stable environment can only plan for short term. Therefore, when there are many competitors entering business/ when there is rapid change in social and economic conditions of business/ if there is constant change in demand patterns/ when there exists poor management practice, then short term planning is adopted or vice-versa for long-term planning. 5. Type and Quality of Information: – Any planning process needs qualitative and accurate information about the organisational structure, capital budget, functional area objectives, level of technology being used, job analysis, recruitment sources, retirement plans, compensation levels of employees etc. Therefore Human Resource Planning is determined on the basis of the type and quality of information. 6. Company’s production and operational policy: – Company’s policies regarding how much to produce and how much to purchase from outside in order to manufacture the final product influences the number and kind of people required. 9

7. Trade Unions: – If the unions declare that they will not work for more than 8 hours a day, it affects the Human Resource Planning. Therefore influence of trade unions regarding the number of working hours per week, recruitment sources etc. Affect Human Resource Planning. 8. Organisational Growth Cycles: – At starting stage the organisation is small and the need of employees is usually smaller, but when the organisation enters the growth phase more young people need to be hired. Similarly, in the declining/recession/downturn phase Human Resource Planning is done to retrench the employees.

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