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Howey.depauw May 2012 GOP Statewide Results

Howey.depauw May 2012 GOP Statewide Results

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Howey-DePauw University Indiana BattIeground PoII

Christine Matthews, Bellwether Research & Fred Yang, Garin Hart Yang Research
!
Ìnterviews: 700 likely Ìndiana Republican primary voters
Field Dates: April 30- May 1, 2012
Margin of error: +/- 3.7%
Hello, this is _______calling from the DePauw University ÷ Howey Battleground Poll. May Ì please speak
with (voter name from list)? We are conducting a public opinion poll of voters in Ìndiana. The results from
this survey will be made public and you may see the findings reported in the news later this week.

1. Gender

52% Male
48% Female
2. Ì'd like to confirm you are currently registered to vote in (county from list)?

100% Yes

3. Ìn politics today, do you consider yourself to be a Republican, a Democrat or an Ìndependent? (If
independent) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican party or the Democratic
party?
76% Republican
1% Democrat
14% Ìndependent
8% Ìndependent, lean Republican
1% Ìndependent, lean Democrat

4. Do you plan to vote in the (rotate)

Republican or
Democratic
primary election on May 8
th

do you just plan to vote in the November general election?

or. have you voted in the Republican or Democratic primary already by absentee ballot or
early in person voting?
(Ìf voted early/absentee) Did you request a Republican or Democratic primary ballot?
Continue, if Republican

3% Voted early/absentee Republican primary (continue)
97% Vote in Republican primary (continue)
- Vote in Democratic primary (terminate)
- Wait until the general election (terminate)
- Voted early/absentee Democratic primary (terminate)
- (volunteered) Don't know (terminate)




Howey-DePauw University Indiana BattIeground PoII
Christine Matthews, Bellwether Research & Fred Yang, Garin Hart Yang Research
!
Now Ì'd like to ask you about a few people and groups and, for each, please tell me if you have heard of
them and, if so, whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of them. (rotate Qs 5/5a
with Qs6/6a)
Hrd/ Hrd/ Hrd/No Never
Fav Unfav Opin Heard
5. Richard Lugar 43% 43% 13% 1%
5a. Over the past week or two, has your opinion of Richard Lugar become (rotate)
12% more favorable
32% less favorable
56% (do not read, volunteered) stayed the same
6. Richard Mourdock 47% 25% 24% 4%
6a. Over the past few week or two, has your opinion of Richard Mourdock become (rotate)
22% more favorable
23% less favorable
55% (do not read, volunteered) stayed the same
7. Tea Party 57% 17% 25% 1%
8. Ìn the Republican primary election for President, the following candidates are on the ballot in
Ìndiana. For whom do you plan to vote?

60% Mitt Romney
10% Ron Paul
10% Rick Santorum
5% Newt Gingrich
15% (do not read, volunteered) Don't Know
9. Ìn the Republican primary election for U.S. Senate, for whom do you plan to vote..(rotate)
Richard Lugar
Richard Mourdock

(if Lugar/Mourdock ask) Are you definitely going to vote for (Lugar/Mourdock) or is there a
chance you could change your mind before Tuesday's election?
(if undecided) The election is in a week, but if it were today, for whom would you vote?
(Richard Lugar or Richard Mourdock)?

30% Richard Lugar, definitely
5% Lugar, could change mind
3% Und, lean Lugar
14% Firm Undecided with leans: 48% Mourdock ÷ 38% Lugar
5% Und, lean Mourdock without leans: 43% Mourdock ÷ 35% Lugar
6% Mourdock, could change mind
37% Richard Moudock, definitely





Howey-DePauw University Indiana BattIeground PoII
Christine Matthews, Bellwether Research & Fred Yang, Garin Hart Yang Research
!

10. What is the MAÌN reason you are voting for: (top responses)












Which candidate does this statement better describe (rotate: Richard Lugar or Richard Mourdock)?
randomize
(vol) (vol)
Lugar Mourdock Both Neither
11. Shares my values 35% 42% 8% 16%
12. Ìs running a negative campaign 25% 21% 35% 20%
13. Will get things done 38% 38% 8% 16%
14. Will beat the Democrat in November 40% 35% 15% 11%
Some people will say endorsements don't matter much, while others say they do play a role in their
decision making process. Ì'm going to read some people or groups who made endorsements in the U.S.
Senate primary race and please tell me whether their endorsement made you MORE likely to support
their candidate or LESS likely to support their candidate. (randomize)
(ONLY if they volunteer)
More Likely Less Likely No Difference
15. Governor Mitch Daniels 49% 18% 33%
16. State and national tea party groups 37% 20% 43%
17. State and national business groups 29% 17% 55%
18. National Rifle Association 46% 13% 40%
19. Ìndiana Right to Life 51% 12% 38%
20. Club for Growth 8% 17% 75%

21 Sarah Palin 32% 24% 44%
Richard Lugar Richard Mourdock
24% Experienced 23% Lugar been in office too long
21% Ìs doing a good job 16% Time for a change
16% Has a good record 14% Dislike Lugar
10% Know him/familiar 13% Dissatisfied with Lugar
6% Willing to compromise 12% Conservative
6% Just like him 10% New Blood
6% Dislike Mourdock 7% Lugar old/age
5% Seniority 7% Lugar doesn't represent ÌN well
5% Foreign policy 6% Lugar needs to retire
5% Negative campaign (Mourdock) 6% Lugar too liberal

6% Lugar lives in Virginia
Howey-DePauw University Indiana BattIeground PoII
Christine Matthews, Bellwether Research & Fred Yang, Garin Hart Yang Research
!


22. Which statement better describes your view (rotate)

60% Ì want a U.S. Senator to focus first on trying to solve many of our country's problems,
even if that means working with elected officials across the aisle to do it.

33% Ì want a U.S. Senator to focus first on standing up for conservative principles, even if that
means not working with elected officials across the aisle to solve problems.
6% (do not read, volunteered) Don't know

Now, Ì'd like to ask you about an issue that has been in the news.
23. Do you support or oppose allowing the children of illegal immigrants who graduate from high
school and have no criminal record and serve in the U.S. military or attend college a path to full
U.S. citizenship? (strongly or somewhat)

22% Strongly support
32% Somewhat support 54% Support ÷ 32% Oppose
13% Somewhat oppose
19% Strongly oppose
14% (do not read, volunteered) Don't Know
24. Do you support or oppose allowing the children of illegal immigrants who graduate from high
school and have no criminal record to obtain a nonimmigrant visa, a drivers license, and
permanent residency, but not full citizenship?
16% Strongly support
35% Somewhat support 51% Support ÷ 34% Oppose
14% Somewhat oppose
20% Strongly oppose
15% Don't Know
Now, just a few questions for statistical purposes.

25. What is your level of formal education to date.
* Less than High school
20% High school Degree
8% Vocational, technical or professional training
20% Some college courses
8% An Associate Degree
28% A Bachelor's Degree
14% A post-graduate Degree

26. On the political spectrum, would you say you are. conservative, liberal or moderate? (Ìf
conservative ask) do you consider yourself to be very conservative or somewhat conservative?
44% Very conservative
33% Somewhat conservative
19% Moderate
1% Liberal
3% Don't Know/ref.

Howey-DePauw University Indiana BattIeground PoII
Christine Matthews, Bellwether Research & Fred Yang, Garin Hart Yang Research
!
27. Are you or is your spouse active or retired military?

15% Yes
84% No
28. Do you consider yourself to be an evangelical Christian or would you not classify yourself that
way?

53% Yes
43% No
Age [coded from voter list]

9% 18-29
16% 30-44
46% 45-64
28% 65+


Thank you. Those are all the questions we have this evening.

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