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Oil Toolkit - Symonds

Oil Toolkit - Symonds

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Dec 21, 2008
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05/24/2012

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High oil prices will lead to inflation, unemployment, and degradation of living standards
Hirsch,
Senior energy program adviser for Science Applications International Corporation and
Senior Energy Advisor at MISI, 05
(Robert L., Minnesotans for Sustainability, "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation, & Risk Management," 2-5,
http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_production_study_hirsch.htm, 7-2-8)

A shortfall of oil supplies caused by world conventional oil production peaking will sharply increase oil
prices and oil price volatility. As oil peaking is approached, relatively minor events will likely have
more pronounced impacts on oil prices and futures markets. Oil prices remain a key determinant of
global economic performance, and world economic growth over the past 50 years has been negatively
impacted in the wake of increased oil prices. The greater the supply shortfall, the higher the price
increases; the longer the shortfall, the greater will be the adverse economic affects. The long-run
impact of sustained, significantly increased oil prices associated with oil peaking will be severe.
Virtually certain are increases in inflation and unemployment, declines in the output of goods and
services, and a degradation of living standards. Without timely mitigation, the long-run impact on the
developed economies will almost certainly be extremely damaging, while many developing nations will
likely be even worse off.
44 The impact of oil price changes will likely be asymmetric. The negative
economic effects of oil price increases are usually not offset by the economic stimulus resulting from a
fall in oil prices. The increase in economic growth in oil exporting countries provided by higher oil
prices has been less than the loss of economic growth in importing countries, and these effects will
likely continue in the future.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008

33

Lacy/Symonds/Bowen

Oil Toolkit

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