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HUNGARY 2008 MARCH POLL

Conducted March 21-26 Forint/euro Forint/euro Forint/euro CPI annualCPI annual


end-April end-2008 end-2009 average average
COMPANY ANALYST in 2008 in 2009
4cast (GB) Ambrus N/A 250.00 N/A 6.0 N/A
Concorde (HU) Samu 256.00 254.00 251.00 6.1 3.5
MKB (HU) Kondrat 260.00 248.00 238.00 6.1 3.6
Citibank (HU) Gargyan 260.00 258.00 254.00 5.9 3.8
Erste Bank (HU) Nyeste N/A 256.00 250.00 6.1 3.5
Raiffeisen (HU) Torok N/A 260.00 260.00 6.0 3.9
OTP Bank (HU) Tardos 260.00 252.50 250.00 6.3 4.0
Lehman (GB) Sepping N/A N/A N/A 6.0 3.5
Danske Bank (DK) Rasmussen N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
K&H Bank (HU) Barcza 250.00 250.00 250.00 6.3 4.0
DZ Bank (HU) Toth 257.00 255.00 N/A N/A N/A
GKI Research (HU) Kopik 255.00 250.00 250.00 6.2 4.0
Penzugykutato (HU) Petschnig/Varhegyi 258.00 260.00 258.00 6.0 3.8
Kopint-Datorg (HU) Bartha/Matheika/Palocz 260.00 256.00 254.00 6.0 3.6
ICEG EC (HU) Oszlay N/A N/A N/A 5.8 N/A
RBC (GB) Rendell 262.00 275.00 285.00 6.2 3.8
Aegon (HU) Orban 252.00 255.00 252.00 6.1 3.9
CIB (HU) Trippon 257.00 254.00 256.00 6.0 3.7
Takarekbank (HU) Suppan 263.00 260.00 255.00 6.2 3.9
EIU (US) Butt N/A 255.00 249.00 5.9 3.4
Deutche Bank (GB) Edgeworth N/A 275.00 290.00 6.0 3.6
UBS (GB) N/A N/A 250.00 250.00 5.6 3.3
Commerzbank (GB) Nestor 256.00 270.00 264.00 N/A N/A
Budapest Fund (HU) Bebesy N/A N/A N/A 6.1 3.8
ING Bank (HU) Nemeth N/A 250.00 250.00 6.0 3.8
Dresdner Kleinwort (GB) Tenconi N/A 256.00 N/A 6.5 3.5

AVERAGE 257.57 256.80 256.11 6.06 3.71


MEDIAN 257.50 255.00 252.00 6.00 3.80
HIGHEST 263.00 275.00 290.00 6.50 4.00
LOWEST 250.00 248.00 238.00 5.60 3.30
FORECASTS 14 22 19 23 21

CHANGES FROM FEB POLL


AVERAGE N/A -0.15 0.86 0.16 0.01
MEDIAN N/A 0.00 -3.00 0.10 0.10
HIGHEST N/A -5.00 10.00 0.10 -0.10
LOWEST N/A -2.00 -12.00 0.20 0.10
CPI yr/yr CPI yr/yr CPI yr/yr NBH base NBH base NBH base BenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmark
in March in Dec in Dec rate rate rate 12-mth yld12-mth yld12-mth yld
2008 2008 2009 end-Marchend-2008 end-2009 end-April end-2008 end-2009
6.6 N/A N/A 8.00 8.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A
6.9 4.8 3.3 7.75 7.00 6.00 N/A N/A N/A
6.7 4.9 3.0 7.75 7.00 6.00 8.50 6.90 6.0
6.7 4.6 3.5 7.75 8.00 7.00 N/A N/A N/A
6.9 4.6 3.1 8.00 7.50 6.25 N/A N/A N/A
6.8 4.8 3.4 8.00 7.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A
6.8 4.3 3.7 8.00 8.50 7.25 8.90 8.30 7.6
N/A 5.1 3.0 7.75 7.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 7.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6.9 5.1 4.0 7.75 8.00 7.00 N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 7.75 7.75 N/A 8.60 8.20 N/A
6.6 5.0 3.6 7.75 7.25 6.00 N/A N/A N/A
6.6 4.5 3.5 7.75 7.50 6.75 8.30 7.80 7.00
6.6 4.7 3.4 8.00 8.00 6.75 8.40 8.00 6.80
6.7 4.6 N/A 8.00 7.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A
6.9 4.8 2.8 7.75 7.50 6.50 N/A N/A N/A
6.5 5.3 3.2 7.75 7.50 6.50 N/A N/A N/A
6.8 4.3 3.4 7.75 7.25 6.75 N/A N/A N/A
6.9 5.1 3.4 8.00 8.00 6.50 N/A N/A N/A
N/A 4.9 3 7.75 7.00 6.50 N/A N/A N/A
6.6 N/A N/A 7.75 8.50 8.50 N/A N/A N/A
6.6 N/A N/A 7.50 5.75 5.75 N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 7.75 8.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A 7.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6.6 5.1 3.2 7.75 7.25 6.75 N/A N/A N/A
7.0 N/A N/A 7.75 7.75 6.50 N/A N/A N/A

6.74 4.81 3.32 7.81 7.55 6.63 8.54 7.84 6.85


6.70 4.80 3.40 7.75 7.50 6.50 8.50 8.00 6.90
7.00 5.30 4.00 8.00 8.50 8.50 8.90 8.30 7.60
6.50 4.30 2.80 7.50 5.75 5.75 8.30 6.90 6.00
21 20 17 26 24 18 5 5 4

N/A 0.23 -0.02 N/A 0.25 0.07 N/A N/A N/A


N/A 0.30 0.00 N/A 0.25 0.00 N/A N/A N/A
N/A -0.20 0.30 N/A 0.00 1.00 N/A N/A N/A
N/A 0.50 0.00 N/A 0.00 -0.25 N/A N/A N/A
BenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmarkBenchmark Next rate change
3-yr yld 3-yr yld 3-yr yld 10-yr yld 10-yr yld 10-yr yld Date
end-April end-2008 end-2009 end-April end-2008 end-2009
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
8.80 6.90 6.00 8.00 6.70 6.00 March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
8.50 8.00 7.20 7.30 6.90 6.30 March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
8.75 8.40 N/A 8.10 7.60 N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
8.80 8.20 6.80 8.00 6.80 6.50 March
8.80 8.10 7.00 7.80 7.60 6.80 March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March

8.73 7.92 6.75 7.84 7.12 6.40


8.80 8.10 6.90 8.00 6.90 6.40
8.80 8.40 7.20 8.10 7.60 6.80
8.50 6.90 6.00 7.30 6.70 6.00
5 6 4 5 5 4

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A


N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Base rate peak When? First cut? NBH threshold historyNBH int. rate
Decision (bps) when poll conducted

50 N/A N/A N/A Dec-04 8.38 10.00


25 8.00 N/A Autumn Jan-05 8.50 9.50
25 8.00 N/A Aug Feb-05 7.75 9.00
25 8.00 N/A Early 2009 Mar-05 7.13 8.25
50 N/A N/A N/A Apr-05 7.25 7.75
50 8.00 March Q3 May-05 7.00 7.50
50 8.50 N/A Not before autumn Jun-05 6.75 7.25
25 8.00 N/A H2 Jul-05 6.25 7.00
25 N/A N/A N/A Aug-05 6.00 6.75
25 N/A N/A N/A Sep-05 5.50 6.25
25 N/A N/A N/A Oct-05 6.00 6.00
25 N/A N/A N/A Nov-05 6.00 6.00
25 8.0 N/A H2 Dec-05 6.00 6.00
50 N/A Mid-2008 Autumn Jan-06 6.00 6.00
50 N/A N/A Q3 Feb-06 6.00 6.00
25 8.00 N/A Q4 Mar-06 6.00 6.00
25 8.25 N/A Aug Apr-06 6.00 6.00
25 7.75 March Q3 May-06 6.00 6.00
50 N/A April/May Sept/Oct Jun-06 6.00 6.00
25 N/A N/A N/A Jul-06 6.75 6.25
25 N/A N/A N/A Aug-06 8.00 6.75
N/A N/A N/A N/A Sep-06 7.75 7.25
25 N/A N/A N/A Oct-06 7.75
25 N/A N/A N/A Nov-06 8.00
25 N/A N/A N/A Dec-06 8.00
25 N/A N/A N/A Jan-07 8.00
Feb-07 8.00
Mar-07 8.00
Apr-07 8.00
May-07 8.00
8.1 Jun-07 8.00
8.0 Jul-07 7.75
8.5 Aug-07 7.75
7.8 Sep-07 7.75
10 Oct-07 7.50
Nov-07 7.50
Dec-07 7.50
Jan-08 7.50
Feb-08 7.50
Mar-08 7.50
NBH int. rate
when poll conducted
HUNGARY 2008 MARCH POLL
Conducted March 21-26 GDP GDP GDP Budget def Budget def
growth growth growth GFS HUF bln GFS HUF bln
COMPANY ANALYST Q1 2008 2009 Q1 2008
4cast (GB) Ambrus N/A 1.7 N/A N/A N/A
Concorde (HU) Samu 0.8 2.1 3.2 N/A N/A
MKB (HU) Kondrat 2.4 2.5 3.5 N/A 1030
Citibank (HU) Gargyan 1.8 1.9 2.9 N/A N/A
Erste Bank (HU) Nyeste N/A 2.2 3.2 N/A N/A
Raiffeisen (HU) Torok 1.3 2.2 2.7 N/A N/A
OTP Bank (HU) Tardos 1.0 2.0 3.4 N/A N/A
Lehman (GB) Sepping N/A 2.2 3.0 N/A N/A
Danske Bank (DK) Rasmussen N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
K&H Bank (HU) Barcza 1.2 2.2 N/A N/A N/A
DZ Bank (HU) Toth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
GKI Research (HU) Kopik N/A 2.7 3.7 500 1080
Penzugykutato (HU) Petschnig/Varhegyi 1.1 2.3 3.2 N/A N/A
Kopint-Datorg (HU) Bartha/Matheika/Palocz 1.0 2.2 3.0 N/A N/A
ICEG EC (HU) Oszlay N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RBC (GB) Rendell N/A 2.0 3.0 N/A N/A
Aegon (HU) Orban N/A 2.4 3.0 N/A N/A
CIB (HU) Trippon N/A 2.3 3.2 N/A N/A
Takarekbank (HU) Suppan 1.2 2.0 2.8 N/A N/A
EIU (US) Butt N/A 2.4 3.6 N/A N/A
Deutche Bank (GB) Edgeworth N/A 1.9 2.9 N/A N/A
UBS (GB) N/A N/A 2.3 3.0 N/A N/A
Commerzbank (GB) Nestor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Budapest Fund (HU) Bebesy N/A 1.9 N/A N/A N/A
ING Bank (HU) Nemeth N/A 1.9 2.8 N/A N/A
Dresdner Kleinwort (GB)
Tenconi N/A 2.0 3.2 N/A N/A

AVERAGE 1.31 2.15 3.12 500 1055


MEDIAN 1.20 2.20 3.00 500 1055
HIGHEST 2.40 2.70 3.70 500 1080
LOWEST 0.80 1.70 2.70 500 1030
FORECASTS 9 22 19 1 2

CHANGES FROM FEB POLL


AVERAGE -0.17 -0.16 -0.07 N/A N/A
MEDIAN -0.30 0.00 -0.10 N/A N/A
HIGHEST 0.00 -0.50 -0.30 N/A N/A
LOWEST 0.30 -0.30 0.00 N/A N/A
Budget def Budget def Budget def C/A def. C/A def. C/A def. Trade def.Trade def. Trade def.
GFS HUF bln ESA pct/GDP ESA pct/GDP EUR bln EUR bln EUR bln EUR mln EUR bln EUR bln
2009 2008 2009 Q4 2008 2009 Feb 2008 2009
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A 3.7 4.2 1.20 5.10 5.50 N/A N/A N/A
1130 3.7 3.7 1.31 5.32 4.80 -80 -0.50 -0.90
N/A 3.8 3.8 1.40 5.40 5.00 N/A N/A N/A
N/A 4.0 3.9 N/A 4.90 4.90 N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A 3.8 4.8 1.30 4.60 6.10 N/A N/A N/A
N/A 4.0 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1000 3.9 3.2 1.00 4.50 4.50 50 -0.10 0.00
N/A 4.0 N/A 1.30 5.50 5.70 N/A 0.00 -0.40
N/A 4.0 3.4 1.20 5.00 4.80 N/A 0.20 -0.50
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A 4.0 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A 3.7 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A 3.9 3.5 1.22 5.22 5.00 -100 -0.20 0.3
N/A 4.0 3.6 1.06 4.60 4.90 -20 0.27 N/A
N/A 4.0 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

1065 3.9 3.7 1.22 5.01 5.12 -37.5 -0.06 -0.30


1065 4.0 3.6 1.22 5.05 4.95 -50.0 -0.05 -0.40
1130 4.0 4.8 1.40 5.50 6.10 50.0 0.27 0.30
1000 3.7 3.2 1.00 4.50 4.50 -100.0 -0.50 -0.90
3 14 13 9 10 10 4 6 5

N/A 0.0 0.20 -0.01 -0.12 0.17 N/A -0.33 -0.44


N/A 0.0 0.10 0.00 -0.06 0.05 N/A -0.30 -0.70
N/A -0.2 0.20 -0.05 -0.40 0.60 N/A -0.53 -0.50
N/A 0.2 0.20 -0.06 -0.10 0.10 N/A 0.00 0.00
Industry* Industry Industry
output y/y output y/y output y/y
Feb full 2008 full 2009
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
7.5 6.2 7.0
N/A N/A N/A
N/A 6.5 7.5
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
5.5 6.0 8.0
N/A 7.0 7.8
N/A 6.2 6.5
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A 7.0 9.0
5.6 5.8 N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A

6.20 6.39 7.63


5.60 6.20 7.65
7.50 7.00 9.00
5.50 5.80 6.50
3 7 6

N/A -0.32 0.35


N/A -0.80 0.15
N/A -0.50 0.00
N/A 0.00 1.30
HUNGARY 2008 MARCH POLL
Conducted March 21-26
Euro entry Euro entry
COMPANY ANALYST date adjusted
4cast (GB) Ambrus N/A N/A
Concorde (HU) Samu 2016 2016.0
MKB (HU) Kondrat 2018 the earliest 2018.0
Citibank (HU) Gargyan 2014 2014.0
Erste Bank (HU) Nyeste N/A N/A
Raiffeisen (HU) Torok N/A N/A
OTP Bank (HU) Tardos Not before 2013, later is more likely N/A
Lehman (GB) Sepping N/A N/A
Danske Bank (DK) Rasmussen N/A N/A
K&H Bank (HU) Barcza N/A N/A
DZ Bank (HU) Toth N/A N/A
GKI Research (HU) Kopik 2012 2012.0
Penzugykutato (HU) Petschnig/Varhegyi 2014 2014.0
Kopint-Datorg (HU) Bartha/Matheika/Palocz 2013 2013.0
ICEG EC (HU) Oszlay 2014 the earliest 2014.0
RBC (GB) Rendell 2014 2014.0
Aegon (HU) Orban 2016 2016.0
CIB (HU) Trippon 2014 2014.0
Takarekbank (HU) Suppan 2014.5 2014.5
EIU (US) Butt N/A N/A
Deutche Bank (GB) Edgeworth N/A N/A
UBS (GB) N/A N/A N/A
Commerzbank (GB) Nestor N/A N/A
Budapest Fund (HU) Bebesy N/A N/A
ING Bank (HU) Nemeth N/A N/A
Dresdner Kleinwort (GB) Tenconi N/A N/A

AVERAGE 2014.5
MEDIAN 2014.0
HIGHEST 2018.0
LOWEST 2012.0
FORECASTS 11
CHANGES FROM FEB POLL
AVERAGE -0.1
MEDIAN 0.0
HIGHEST 0.0
LOWEST -2.0
ERM-2
ERM-2 ERM date parity/EUR
date adjusted F'CAST Adjusted
N/A N/A N/A N/A
2013.0 2013 255.00 255.00
2016 the earliest 2016 250.00 250.00
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
Not before 2011 N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
2009 2009 250.00 250.00
2012.0 2012 258.00 258.00
2011.0 2011 260.00 260.00
N/A N/A N/A N/A
2011.0 2011 280.00 280.00
2010.0 2010 250.00 250.00
2011.0 2011 250.00 250.00
2012.0 2012 250.00 250.00
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A N/A N/A

2011.7 255.89
2011.0 250.00
2016.0 280.00
2009.0 250.00
9 9

-0.1 -2.31
-1.0 -5.00
0.0 -2.40
-1.0 0.00