F REDERICK polls

TO: FROM: DATE: RE:

Patrick Murphy Campaign Keith Frederick FrederickPolls, LLC May 9, 2012 Florida CD18. n=500 sample1; Likely November 2012 Voters; 4.3% margin of error; May 6-8.

1.

Congressional Ballot Vote. % Allen West (R) Patrick Murphy (D) Undecided 45 45 10

The CD18 race is tied between Republican incumbent Allen West and Democratic candidate Patrick Murphy. Each gains 80% of their own partisan’s vote, but Patrick Murphy holds a 15-point lead (49% to 34%) among Independents. 2. Allen West Support Measures. • • Allen West rating: 42% favorable; 41% unfavorable. Allen West “reelect”: 42% Yes, reelect; 44% “someone new.”

Congressman Allen West is clearly a well-known (83% name recognition) and polarizing figure.

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NOTE: Poll sample reflects voter registration +3 Republican -- 39% Republican, 36% Democratic, 25% Independent/Other 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104 Arlington, VA 22201 (703) 528-3031 (p) (703) 528-1204 (f) Keith@FrederickPolls.com www.FrederickPolls.com

Florida CD18 May 9, 2012

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His support numbers are stuck in the mid to low 40’s -- 45% ballot vote, 42% favorable rating, 42% “reelect” -- while an equal or slightly larger percentage of voters oppose him. West’s 45% vote against Patrick Murphy equals the District’s generic vote preference for “a Republican” (45%), but because of West’s negatives, Murphy is able to out-perform the generic Democratic preference (41%) by 4 points. 3. Presidential Ballot Vote. % Barack Obama (D) Mitt Romney (R) Undecided 46 49 4

In keeping with CD18’s +3 Republican registration advantage and +4 generic ballot preference for a Republican, Obama runs slightly behind Romney 46% to 49%. Romney outperforms the controversial and divisive Allen West by 4 points.

FrederickPolls

May 2012