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Global Trends 2030

Global Trends 2030

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Now that we're living in an "interconnected and polycentric world", the EU spends millions trying to work out how it can still tell us what to do. ESPAS.
Now that we're living in an "interconnected and polycentric world", the EU spends millions trying to work out how it can still tell us what to do. ESPAS.

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Published by: Charters and Caldecott on May 20, 2012
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12/22/2012

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Absolute poverty will diminish over the next two decades, but areas of extreme poverty
will remain, potentially entrenching existing gaps between rich and poor (see Figure 10).
Inequality may become even more acute in Asia and Africa. High levels of inequality will
persist not only between states, but also (or indeed mainly) within societies. Despite a
large increase in GDP per capita, certain countries (particularly India) have failed to in-
vest in crucial areas of human development. In the long run, neglecting citizens’ quality
of life, especially when wealth remains (unduly) concentrated in the hands of a few may
lead a country like India to social and economic breakdown.49

However, no developing
economy is expected to converge fully with advanced country per capita income levels in
the coming 20 years. In 2030 most countries will have middle-income status.

A recent projection, estimates that the number of people living in the most absolute pov-
erty (income below USD 1.25 per day) will be signifcantly reduced by 2030: from eight
to just two percent of the population in China; from more than one third to just four
percent in India; and from two-ffths to 16 percent of the population in sub-Saharan Af-
rica.50

But poverty is projected to remain entrenched in some regions; in 2030 more than
one third of sub-Saharan Africans and one ffth of the Indian and Indonesian popula-
tions will still be living on less than USD 2 per day. This suggests that inequality will
increase signifcantly. These projections need to be treated with caution, Not least be-
cause a changing international economic environment and national economic and social
policies could have a signifcant impact on them, but the fgures do point where current
poverty reduction trends are heading.

49. A. Sen, ‘Quality of Life: India vs. China’, The New York Review of Books, 12 May 2011, at www.nybooks.com/articles/
archives/2011/may/12/quality-life-india-vs-china/.

50. U. Dadush and B. Stancil, op. cit. in note 42, p. 16.

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Global trends 2030 – Citizens in an interconnected and polycentric world

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