Electoral vote scenarios in battleground states

presuming a 1-percent polling overcount for President Obama
June 7, 2012

State (electoral votes)

Colorado
(9)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Iowa
(6)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Missouri
(10)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Ohio
(18)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Virginia
(13)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
North Carolina
(15)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Florida
(29)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Wisconsin
(10)
Obama
Romney
Undecided
TOTAL (of 110)

HuffPost
polling
average

Adjusted:
+1% Romney,
-1% Obama

Adding a 50/50 split of
undecided voters

If undecided voters go
2/3 for Romney
instead

47%
44.5%
8.5%

46%
45.5%

50.25%
49.75%

48.89%
51.11%

45.3%
42.5%
12.2%

44.3%
43.5%

50.4%
49.6%

48.37%
51.63%

45%
44.7%
9.3%

44%
45.7%

48.65%
51.35%

47.1%
52.9%

45.7%
44.5%
9.8%

44.7%
45.5%

49.6%
50.4%

47.97%
52.03%

48.2%
45.6%
6.2%

47.2%
46.6%

50.3%
49.7%

49.27%
50.73%

45.9%
45.9%
8.2%

44.9%
46.9%

49%
51%

47.63%
52.37%

46.5%
45.3%
8.2%

45.5%
46.3%

49.6%
50.4%

48.23%
51.77%

47.9%
44.4%
7.7%

46.9%
45.4%

50.75%
49.25%

49.47%
50.53%

38 Obama, 72 Romney

All 110 for Romney