230 PARK AVENUE SOUTH 2

ND

FLOOR

NEW YORK, NY 10003 P: 212.534.4000 PSBRESEARCH.COM

TO: FROM: DATE: RE: SUMMARY

NO LABELS PENN SCHOEN BERLAND JUNE 12, 2012 NO LABELS FLASH POLL

PSB conducted a phone poll among 1,004 registered voters in the United States. This survey fielded June 4th-June 11th, 2012. The margin of error was 3.1%.  A majority of voters (54%) are Problem Solving Voters (PSVs), which is defined as someone who: o When voting for national office, chooses candidates who are focused on solving problems rather than the candidates who align most closely with their party affiliation o If a member of a political party, somewhat often or frequently votes for candidates outside of their party for national office 94% of Independents are Problem Solving Voters, compared to 30% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans Problem Solving Voters are discouraged with the current state of our country—only 29% think the country is heading in the right direction, compared to 42% of non-PSVs o Only 16% of PSVs believe that the current leaders in Washington are able to get things done; 84% believe we ultimately need a new group of leaders who are focused on solving problems If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, Mitt Romney would win the PSV vote 51-49, while Barack Obama would win the non-PSV vote 52-48 o This is in contrast to the 2008 election, when Obama carried the PSV vote 48-37 o On specific issues, PSVs see Romney as more of a problem solving candidate for Tax Policy (55%), Deficit Reduction (58%), and Immigration (51%), and see Obama as more of a problem solving candidate for Healthcare (59%) Problem Solving Voters feel that it is very important for problem solving candidates to work with members of the opposing party to find solutions (84%)

 

1

They also want problem solving candidates to be inventive in coming up with new ideas (71%) and to not feel bound by pledges (67%) PSVs are open minded with their voting decisions and less tied to party affiliation o 33% are at least somewhat likely to change their mind between now and the 2012 election vs 15% for non-PSVs o 38% have changed their party affiliation at some point, vs 23% of non-PSVs

o

PROBLEM SOLVING VOTER Problem Solving Voter is defined as:  When voting for national office, chooses candidates who are focused on solving problems rather than the candidates who align most closely with their party affiliation  If a member of a political party, somewhat often or frequently votes for candidates outside of their party for national office Non-PS Voters N=467 0 100

Total N=1004 Problem Solving Voter Not Problem Solving Voter 54 46

PS Voters N=537 100 0

Democrats N=348 30 70

Republicans N=292 33 67

Independents N=364 94 6

2

POLITICS IN GENERAL In general, do you believe that things in the country are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? Total N=1004 Right direction Wrong track 35 65 PS Voters N=537 29 71 Non-PS Voters N=467 42 58 PS Democrats N=99 60 40 PS Republicans N=100 15 85 PS Independents N=338 23 77

Which of the following is closer to your view regarding candidates for national office? Total N=1004 I vote for political candidates who I feel are focused on solving problems I vote for political candidates who align most closely with my political party PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 59 PS Democrats N=99 100 PS Republicans N=100 100 PS Independents N=338 100

81

100

19

0

41

0

0

0

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or are you an Independent? Total N=1004 Democrat Republican Independent 35 29 36 PS Voters N=537 19 18 63 Non-PS Voters N=467 53 42 5 PS Democrats N=99 100 0 0 PS Republicans N=100 0 100 0 PS Independents N=338 0 0 100

Have you ever changed your party affiliation? Total N=1004 Yes No 31 69 PS Voters N=537 38 62 Non-PS Voters N=467 23 77 PS Democrats N=99 28 72 PS Republicans N=100 34 66 PS Independents N=338 42 58

3

What party did you change from? Ranked by Total From Democrat to Republican From Democrat to Independent From Republican to Democrat From Republican to Independent From Independent to Democrat From Independent to Republican Total N=340 34 20 17 17 6 PS Voters N=220 21 26 17 24 5 Non-PS Voters N=120 59 8 16 2 9 PS Democrats N=26 11 8 71 0 5 PS Republicans N=41 68 0 13 2 6 PS Independents N=153 13 36 8 33 4

6

7

5

5

12

6

How often do you vote for candidates for national office from a party other than your own? Total N=642 Frequently Somewhat often Rarely Never 15 22 35 28 PS Voters N=199 38 62 0 0 Non-PS Voters N=443 4 4 51 41 PS Democrats N=99 41 59 0 0 PS Republicans N=100 35 65 0 0 PS Independents N=0 0 0 0 0

4

GENERAL CANDIDATE, PARTY & ISSUES PROBE How favorable are you towards Barack Obama? Total N=1004 Favorable (Very + Somewhat) Unfavorable (Somewhat + Very) Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don't know 50 49 31 19 11 38 1 PS Voters N=537 48 52 24 24 14 38 1 Non-PS Voters N=467 52 48 39 13 8 40 1 PS Democrats N=99 87 12 63 24 4 8 1 PS Republicans N=100 16 83 4 12 25 58 0 PS Independents N=338 44 55 17 27 14 41 1

How favorable are you towards Mitt Romney? Total N=1004 Favorable (Very + Somewhat) Unfavorable (Somewhat + Very) Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don't know 45 49 13 32 20 29 6 PS Voters N=537 46 49 11 35 23 26 5 Non-PS Voters N=467 45 50 16 29 16 34 6 PS Democrats N=99 24 76 6 18 30 46 1 PS Republicans N=100 75 22 23 52 14 8 2 PS Independents N=338 44 48 8 36 24 24 8

How favorable are you towards each of the following? Showing Very + Somewhat Favorable Ranked by Total The Republican Party The Democratic Party The Republican leadership in Congress US Congress The Democratic leadership in Congress Total N=1004 46 45 40 39 39 PS Voters N=537 45 39 37 39 33 Non-PS Voters N=467 46 54 43 41 46 PS Democrats N=99 21 85 14 52 76 PS Republicans N=100 75 20 69 58 16 PS Independents N=338 45 31 35 29 25

5

If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Ranked by Total Mitt Romney Barack Obama Total N=1004 50 50 PS Voters N=537 51 49 Non-PS Voters N=467 48 52 PS Democrats N=99 15 85 PS Republicans N=100 82 18 PS Independents N=338 53 47

For which party’s candidate are you more likely to vote for in this fall’s Congressional elections? Ranked by Total Democratic Republican Independent Other Total N=1004 39 36 18 8 PS Voters N=537 31 32 26 11 Non-PS Voters N=467 49 39 8 5 PS Democrats N=99 76 10 3 11 PS Republicans N=100 6 77 7 10 PS Independents N=338 24 27 39 11

How likely are you to change your mind between now and the election? Total N=1004 Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely 4 21 29 46 PS Voters N=537 5 28 29 38 Non-PS Voters N=467 3 12 30 56 PS Democrats N=99 1 18 33 47 PS Republicans N=100 3 33 25 40 PS Independents N=338 6 30 28 35

6

In 2008, for whom did you vote for President? Non-PS Voters N=467 50 PS Democrats N=99 83 PS Republicans N=100 17 PS Independents N=338 47

Ranked by Total Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin Green Party candidates Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez Did not vote Other

Total N=1004 49

PS Voters N=537 48

38

37

40

12

79

33

1 9 3

2 10 3

1 6 3

1 3 2

0 3 1

2 15 4

For which party’s candidate did you vote for in the last Congressional elections in 2008? Ranked by Total Democratic Republican Other I voted for different parties for House & Senate WASHINGTON Who do you believe is to blame for gridlock in Washington (inability for Congress to agree on a budget, etc.)? Ranked by Total Republicans Republicans in Congress The President Democrats in Congress Democrats I believe everything is getting done in Washington Total N=1004 24 21 18 16 14 7 PS Voters N=537 24 21 18 15 15 8 Non-PS Voters N=467 25 22 17 17 13 6 PS Democrats N=99 48 33 3 1 8 8 PS Republicans N=100 15 5 29 29 18 4 PS Independents N=338 19 21 20 16 16 9 Total N=1004 42 39 14 PS Voters N=537 36 37 19 Non-PS Voters N=467 50 41 7 PS Democrats N=99 75 11 9 PS Republicans N=100 10 77 11 PS Independents N=338 32 35 24

5

7

2

5

3

9

7

Which of the following is closer to your view? Ranked by Total The best way to ensure that things get done in Washington would be to elect a new group of leadership that is committed to solving problems The best way to ensure that things get done in Washington would be a shift in which political party is in power Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 PS Democrats N=99 PS Republicans N=100 PS Independents N=338

77

82

72

64

84

86

23

18

28

36

16

14

Which of the following is closer to your view? Ranked by Total I believe that ultimately we need a new group of leaders who are focused on solving problems I believe that the current leaders in Washington are able to get things done Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 PS Democrats N=99 PS Republicans N=100 PS Independents N=338

79

84

74

57

97

88

21

16

26

43

3

12

Which of the following is closer to your view? Ranked by Total The criteria have changed, and more voters are now looking across party lines to find candidates who are focused on solving problems The criteria for choosing candidates remains the same as it always has been and most voters still pick the candidate that falls within their own party Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 PS Democrats N=99 PS Republicans N=100 PS Independents N=338

53

60

46

56

72

57

47

40

54

44

28

43

8

Many members of Congress have taken a pledge not to raise taxes under any circumstances. Do you believe this has hurt or helped Congress’s ability to solve problems? Ranked by Total I believe that the pledge has hurt Congress’s ability to solve problems I believe that the pledge has helped Congress’s ability to solve problems Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 69 PS Democrats N=99 66 PS Republicans N=100 68 PS Independents N=338 68

68

67

32

33

31

34

32

32

Many members of Congress have taken a pledge not to raise taxes under any circumstances. Do you believe this has hurt or helped Congress’s ability to solve problems? Ranked by Total I believe that the pledge has hurt Congress’s ability to solve problems I believe that the pledge has helped Congress’s ability to solve problems Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 78 PS Democrats N=99 68 PS Republicans N=100 84 PS Independents N=338 76

77

76

23

24

22

32

16

24

PROBLEM SOLVING CANDIDATE DRILLDOWN In casting your vote in the 2012 election, are you looking for someone who best represents your party or someone who solves problems regardless of party? Ranked by Total Someone who solves problems regardless of party Someone who best represents my party Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 71 PS Democrats N=99 80 PS Republicans N=100 93 PS Independents N=338 93

82

91

18

9

29

20

7

7

9

How important are each of the following qualities to you in defining what a problem solving candidate needs to do? Showing Very Important Ranked by Total Willing to work with those from the other party direct to try to find solutions Has a strong grasp of policy and is inventive in coming up with new ideas Does not feel bound by pledges, but willing to look beyond them when necessary to solve a problem Willing to go publicly against own party on some issues Willing to back unconventional solutions to problems Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 76 PS Democrats N=99 90 PS Republicans N=100 87 PS Independents N=338 82

80

84

71

71

71

73

72

70

65

67

63

65

58

70

59

65

50

58

69

67

54

54

53

54

50

56

Do you think Washington can produce a problem-solving mentality or does that really need to come from outside of Washington? Ranked by Total A problem-solving mentality needs to come from outside of Washington Washington can produce a problemsolving mentality Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 57 PS Democrats N=99 50 PS Republicans N=100 67 PS Independents N=338 73

62

67

38

33

43

50

33

27

Which of the two Presidential candidates do you believe is more focused on solving problems in general rather than aligning with their political party? Total N=1004 Mitt Romney Barack Obama 49 51 PS Voters N=537 50 50 Non-PS Voters N=467 48 52 PS Democrats N=99 21 79 PS Republicans N=100 78 22 PS Independents N=338 52 48

10

Which candidate do you believe is more focused on solving problems regarding tax policy rather than aligning with their political party? Total N=1004 Mitt Romney Barack Obama 53 47 PS Voters N=537 55 45 Non-PS Voters N=467 52 48 PS Democrats N=99 19 81 PS Republicans N=100 82 18 PS Independents N=338 58 42

Which candidate do you believe is more focused on solving problems regarding immigration rather than aligning with their political party? Total N=1004 Mitt Romney Barack Obama 47 53 PS Voters N=537 51 49 Non-PS Voters N=467 43 57 PS Democrats N=99 23 77 PS Republicans N=100 70 30 PS Independents N=338 55 45

Which candidate do you believe is more focused on solving problems regarding the budget deficit rather than aligning with their political party? Total N=1004 Mitt Romney Barack Obama 55 45 PS Voters N=537 58 42 Non-PS Voters N=467 51 49 PS Democrats N=99 28 72 PS Republicans N=100 85 15 PS Independents N=338 59 41

Which candidate do you believe is more focused on solving problems regarding healthcare rather than aligning with their political party? Total N=1004 Mitt Romney Barack Obama 41 59 PS Voters N=537 41 59 Non-PS Voters N=467 42 58 PS Democrats N=99 11 89 PS Republicans N=100 60 40 PS Independents N=338 45 55

11

CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION The United States hasn’t had a Constitutional Convention since 1787. Which is closer to your view about the idea of holding modern-day Constitutional Convention? Ranked by Total Holding a Constitutional Convention now would just create more problems for our country Holding a Constitutional Convention now would help our nation resolve some of its differences Total N=1004 PS Voters N=537 Non-PS Voters N=467 53 PS Democrats N=99 47 PS Republicans N=100 58 PS Independents N=338 56

54

55

46

45

47

53

42

44

12

Demographics Region Total N=1004 Northeast Midwest South West 19 24 37 19 PS Voters N=537 18 28 36 18 Non-PS Voters N=467 20 20 38 21 PS Democrats N=99 17 24 34 24 PS Republicans N=100 19 21 32 27 PS Independents N=338 19 30 38 13

Gender Total N=1004 Male Female 47 53 PS Voters N=537 49 51 Non-PS Voters N=467 44 56 PS Democrats N=99 38 62 PS Republicans N=100 50 50 PS Independents N=338 53 47

Please indicate which of the following best represents your age. Total N=1004 18-20 21-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 3 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 9 PS Voters N=537 3 6 6 9 9 9 9 11 11 9 7 4 7 Non-PS Voters N=467 3 6 9 7 7 9 11 9 9 9 5 6 11 PS Democrats N=99 0 8 5 6 15 15 4 13 7 10 6 5 9 PS Republicans N=100 4 8 0 8 6 10 13 9 11 8 8 5 11 PS Independents N=338 4 5 8 10 8 7 10 11 12 8 7 4 6

13

What is the last grade in school you completed? Total N=1004 Less than high school High school graduate Some college College graduate (Associate’s or Bachelor’s degree) Graduate school 5 22 25 33 15 PS Voters N=537 5 21 26 31 16 Non-PS Voters N=467 5 23 23 34 14 PS Democrats N=99 2 34 20 25 20 PS Republicans N=100 1 19 31 34 14 PS Independents N=338 7 18 27 33 15

Which of the following best describes your ethnic or racial background or heritage? Total N=1004 White, Caucasian, European, EuropeanAmerican Black, AfricanAmerican, Caribbean, African, CaribbeanAmerican Hispanic, Latino, Latin American Asian-American, Asian, Pacific Islander Other 76 PS Voters N=537 75 Non-PS Voters N=467 78 PS Democrats N=99 58 PS Republicans N=100 80 PS Independents N=338 78

10

9

12

20

1

7

8 3 3

10 4 3

6 2 3

18 3 2

10 7 3

7 3 4

14

Do you consider yourself liberal, centrist, or conservative? Total N=1004 Liberal Centrist Conservative Don't know 29 17 49 5 PS Voters N=537 25 21 49 5 Non-PS Voters N=467 34 12 49 5 PS Democrats N=99 41 14 43 2 PS Republicans N=100 15 12 70 3 PS Independents N=338 22 26 44 7

For statistical purposes only, we need to know your total family income for 2011. Will you please tell me which of the following categories best represents your total family income? Total N=1004 Less than $20,000 $20,000-$34,999 $35,000-$49,999 $50,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000$150,000 $150,000+ Don't know/refused 13 13 15 16 14 12 8 8 PS Voters N=537 13 14 16 17 12 12 10 7 Non-PS Voters N=467 14 12 14 16 16 13 6 9 PS Democrats N=99 12 20 19 13 13 9 9 4 PS Republicans N=100 12 13 11 20 13 11 14 6 PS Independents N=338 14 13 16 17 12 13 9 8

15

METHODOLOGY

PSB conducted a phone poll among 1,004 registered voters in the United States. This survey fielded June 4th-June 11th, 2012. The margin of error was 3.1%. Random Digit Dialing (RDD) telephone samples were used to survey a representative sample of the US voting population.  Penn, Schoen & Berland used the Genesys system to produce RDD numbers for US dialing. o Area codes and exchanges were determined for an area based on various geographic or demographic criteria. o After this, the final 4 digits of the phone number were randomly created. o Demographics were based on US Census data and PRIZM cluster categorization, updated quarterly along with geographic exchange information. o Cell phone only exchanges were excluded from the generation since they don’t follow regular geographic regulations. Removing these does not significantly affect results.

In analyzing the survey data we employed statistical weighting techniques to compensate for any remaining variance from demographic or other targeted sampling parameters since RDD calls cannot be highly targeted based on demographic variables

16