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CIMA Revision Cards Decision Management CIMA Revision Cards

CIMA Revision Cards Decision Management CIMA Revision Cards

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Published by: g007adam759 on Jun 26, 2012
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06/26/2012

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Recognising the uncertainty that exists when costs and

revenues are estimated and assessing how the risk associated with such an

uncertainty can be evaluated

Topics

. Probability
. Expected values
. Attitudes to risk
. Decision trees
. Value of perfect information

Key Revision Questions

Q11

Q33

41

Probability

Definitions

Uncertainty – where no information is available to

predict the outcome

Risk – where several potential outcomes and the

probability of each occurring can be identified

Expected values

KThe most common method for accounting for

probabilities is the use of expected values (EV)

KThe EV is calculated by weighting the possible

outcomes by their probabilities and summing up

the result

Example

A company is considering launching a new product. The

selling price is to be set at £15. A number of probabilities

for different revenue levels are predicted. The project has

a required expected value of £1,200

Units sold Revenue Probability Pay off

£

£

70

1050

0.2

210

100

1500

0.45

675

130

1950

0.35

682.5

1.00 EV 1567.5

The project exceeds the EV and will be accepted

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

42

Risk and Uncertainty

Attitudes to risk

KRisk neutral – assumed by EV – ignores variations in outcome. Concerned only with the most likely outcome

KRisk seeker – concerned only with the best possible outcome, no matter how unlikely it is

KRisk averse – prefer the alternative with the least variation

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

43

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Risk and Uncertainty

Decision trees

Simple, visual way of presenting probabilistic information

to management

Example

A company has a choice of two strategies for its

product launch. Results will depend on the level of

demand, which may be high (60% chance) or low.

Strategy A will earn £45,000 (high demand) or

£20,000 (low demand). Strategy B will earn

£75,000 or £5,000. The problem can be shown on

a decision tree.

Strategy B has the highest EV and should be

adopted.

0.6

Cash flow

£45,000

£20,000

£75,000 £45,000

£5,000

£2,000

£8,000

EV £35,000

£27,000

Pay-off

0.4

0.6

0.4

Strategy B

Strategy A

EV £47,000

The point at which a decision is made

The point at which a chance event occurs

Branches represent the different possible

outcomes

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

44

Risk and Uncertainty

Decision trees

Other factors to consider

1. Time Value of Money – Can be incorporated to refine the model

2. Assumes risk neutrality – In the above example Project A had a lower EV, but less variability in the potential

outcomes and a higher ‘low’ outcome. Attitude to risk would affect the investor’s choice

3. Sensitivity – The probabilities used are subjective estimates and changes in them may impact the decision made

4. Oversimplification – In reality, it is unlikely that any project will have only a few discrete outcomes

Value of perfect information

KObtaining better quality estimates should improve

the decision-making process

KThe value of that perfect information is the

increase in the expected value of the project,

once the information is made available

Example

If, in the previous example, a market research company

could be employed to predict whether demand for the

products would be high or low. The maximum value of

the research can be calculated as follows:

If told demand will be high, Strategy B will be adopted.

If told demand is low, Strategy A will be adopted.

EV¼(0.6Â75,000)þ(0.4Â20,000)¼53,000

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

45

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Risk and Uncertainty

Value of perfect information

So, the improvement in EV which can be obtained by

paying for the research is £53,000À£47,000¼£6,000.

This amount represents the maximum to be paid for the

research – i.e. it is the value of the perfect information

Other methods for dealing with
uncertainty

KSensitivity analysis

KAdjusting the discount rate

KAdjusting the payback period

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

46

Risk and Uncertainty

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