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Sunday, July 15, 2012


Sunday Evening Forecast Newsletter

QT Weather
weather at a glance
Drought has taken huge hold Central U.S , NV to DE affected No relief in sight for Corn Belt

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QT Weather brings you a comprehensive stream of market-relevant domestic and international weather information every day from expert meteorologist Allen Motew. Using radar analysis, USDA data, global satellite and remote sensing coverage, QT offers an extensive package of essential weather information.

No relief in sight for most of Plains

The Heat Goes On

Since June, extreme heat and drying (often -0.30 to -0.60 in/day evaporation) has caused drought to spread and intensify across the center of the country, from NV to DE. The widespread toll it has taken on crop yields, withered pastures, forests, reservoirs and lakes, will not reverse soon, in fact, is likely to compound and expand for at least another few weeks. The Corn Belt and Plains will see only isolated storms with a teasing mid-week northern front along with some tropical moisture too, potentially offering only marginal and spotty help for the North, West and South, but leave Drought Central to further intensify for yet another few weeks. The similarity to Argentinas and S Brazils early season dryness and heat has been noted, where corn yields ended up dropping 35% from early expectations, and even some local, heavy late season rains on their later maturing soybeans and more responsive pastureland did not mend the early season hurt.

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QT Infor mati on Sy stem s Inc .

From California to Delaware, all states along the 40th parallel are exceedingly dry, ranking in the 1-20th percentile. On the flip side, soil moisture is in the 50-90% percentile ranking across the far North and far South. Some of the driest states are Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and Delaware, with large portions of these states in the 1-5% percentile soil moisture rankings (9599% of the time wetter than now) as of July 14, 2012.

Todays weather maps

The early heat started in late June in the High Plains and C Rockies. All time record maximum temperatures (for any date!) were recorded in NE, CO, and KS, ranging from 101-111F.

About Allen Motew

Allen Motew has been an expert weather analyst for more than 35 years. With a Seal of Approval for Broadcasters from the American Meteorological Society, Allen specializes in global weather prediction, synoptic scale and mesonet analysis, and severe weather events. He is trained in forecasting hurricanes, tropical cyclones and international weather events for government and private industry interests from around the globe. A Chicago native, Allen broadcasts his local, domestic and international commodity weather forecasts from the Chicago

Temperature anomalies past 30 days.

The early heat has continued into mid-July. The greatest temperature anomalies over the past 30 days (greater than 6 degrees F) have been seen in MT, WY, CO, NE, KS and MO. Also, in S WI, SW MI and parts of SD, IL and IN. Widespread, above normal heating has also been seen from NV to MA. In fact, above normal temperatures have occurred over the past 30 days in all states except the Pacific Coast, Gulf States and SE. Crop and pastureland response to the widespread intensifying drought conditions shows across the nation. Pastureland is indexed to be severe to extreme from NV to MT to W TX with some of the worst crop conditions show in ND, NE, IA, WI, IL, IN, MO, TN, AR, MS, GA and SC. Moist crop responses show inWA and MN, but are only isolated also in parts of E SD, SW IA, SE KS, SW OH, E TX, N FL and SW VA.

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Last year (left map of Palmer Index), abnormally moist conditions were seen (July, 2011), across the West, North and most of the Corn Belt. Last year, drought was limited to the South, being centered in Texas. Now, a year later (June, 2012, right map) drought conditions have improved in TX, but developed over a wider area that last year, across most states in the West, Corn Belt, and Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Crop production in some of these areas has been halted with corn going to forage and silage as pastureland continues to dry. The early spring heat and sustained early spring drying has resulted particularly in corn yield being reduced by the USDA from 166 bu/acre to 146 bu/acre as of last week! There is no signs that the Corn Belt drought will improve any time soon, and particularly during the next two to four weeks. In fact, widespread intensification of the drought indices are likely across the Corn Belt for the remainder of July, based on the near term forecast of more abnormal heating (strong evaporation) and below normal rainfall ( further lowering of reservoirs, streams and rivers). The near and longer range outlook has closer to normal rains for the Plains, South and East, but not for most of the Corn Belt (MN, IA, WI, MO, IL, IN, MI, OH). Mondayanother day of crop stressing 100-105F heat from NE and SD to WI and N IL. For the week ahead, above normal readings will remain common across the Plains and Corn Belt, but shift south and west, as a northern front reaches the Great Lakes and N Plains on Wednesday.

QT Infor mati on Sy stem s
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The 8-14 day outlooks show more border to border heat (left) and Corn Belt net drying (right). In general, only the C and S Rockies into the C Great Basin and parts of the High Plains and SE see the potential of normal to above normal rain.

Allen Motew