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Pla?

Z fling and Policy &tidies

Through its science resources and policy studies, the Foundation identifies and analyzes important science policy issues; provides -an adequate data and methodology base for sound decisionmaking; and develops science planning and policy study capabilities at various institutions in the United States. The information developed through these activities is used in assessing alternatives, in establishing priorities, and in arriving at recommendations concerning the national science effort. The results of these study activities serve not only the requirements of the National Science Foundation, in its concern with the scientific enterprise, but also serve other Federal agencies, Congressional groups, and nonFederal organizations.

of the National Academy of En@ neering, the Foundation hag been obtaining information cone the current status and projected
mxls of the major areas of science as an aid to the determination of scientific priorities. Two COSPUP

studies initiated at the end of fiscal year 1969 with Foundation support
were fully underway in fiscal year 1970. One study concerned the status and needsof astronomy (both

ground and space based), the other concerned the picture for physicp.
These studies represent the first efforts of COSPUP to update previous reviews of scientific disciplines, The new reviews are aimed at est.& lishing not only the current and foreseeable needs and problems of these two disciplines but also at determining their relevance to other areas of science and technology and to society in general. The reviews will also concentrate on the establishment of priorities within these broad fields. Additional updating efforts, for other disciplines, are currently being planned in order to available assure that information keeps pa& with rapidly char&g scientific and technological develop ments. Over the past year, support of the Committee on Public Engineering Policy continued. The committee addressed itself largely to the question of engineering as it relates to social utility. One activity culminated in the publication of a repat, Priorities in Applied Research, which recommended that applied research be undertaken in the following major areas: ,the biosphere, techniques for applied social research, materials research, construction, and transportation. Another important issue upon which attention was focused during the year concemed the c?&c=t of changes in Federal funding pattw on academic institutions in the

SCIENCE POLICY
ISSUES

The study of science policy issues is an essential component of any overview of the science picture in the United States. Insight is needed into the interrelationships between the scientific enterprise and the society it serves; the requirements of the various areas of science and engineering must be understood; and assessments of the impact of changes in the scientific resource base and the impact of current and potential changes due to scientific and technological advances must be available for guidance. With limited resources to draw on, one of the critical and continuing proMems facing science administrators is the question of establishing. priorities for the competing areas of science. Through its support of the activities and special studies of the Committee on Science and Public Policy (COSPUP) of the National Academy of Sciences and the counterpart Committee on United States. Federal obligations Public Engineering Policy (COPEP) to universities and colleges totaled

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$3.5 billion in academic year 196869, representing only a 2 percent rise over the previous year and the second consecutive year in which the growth rate was limited to this level. In contrast, the annual growth rate during the 1963-67 period was 24 percent.1 Firm data have not been available on the effects of the changed funding ‘pattern and the Foundation, with the encouragement of the Office of Science and Technology, initiated a survey to determine quantitatively the actual impact on academic institutions. The first phase of the study was conducted in fiscal year 1969 in about one hundred universities and some seven hundred graduate departments within these universities. Since the results of this survey indicated that 1968-69 constituted the first year of a major transitionary period, a second phase of this study was initiated in 1970 to provide a comparison over more than one time period. Results will be published in fiscal year 1971. Also studied during this past year was the question of possible future imbalances between the Pool of available Ph.D.3 in science and engineering and requirements for their utilization, a topic of particular importance when viewed within the context of a rapidly changing national situation. The National Science Foundation undertook to analyze and project the future relationship between the supply and utilization of science and engineering doctorates. The r-esults of this analysis were made public in a report, Science and En-

pared with about 150,600 in 1968) might be available. However, present job markets for doctorates are not nearly as favorable as they have been in past years, though it is not clear in the current fluid situation whether the major present problem is a mismatch between opportunities and aspirations or actually an oversupply of Ph.D.‘s. Thus, the 1980 pool of doctorates will depend on the extent to which the present situation will affect graduate school enrollments and thus .tbe future rate of Ph.D. production. With regard to utilization, several projections were made on the basis of varying assumptions. The projected relationship between supply and utilization figures indicates that by 1980, the supply and utilization of science and engineering doctorates is likely to be However, it would in equilibrium. also appear that significant numbers of Ph.D.‘s are likely to be engaged in activities which are markedly different from the primary ones practiced by most present doctorates. Examples of these different activities include non-R&D functions in industry and government as well as teaching in 2- and 4year colleges. Recent evidence shows that the shift is already beginning. Implications of this analysis are that Ph.D. education should offer a variety of different programs including training most suitable for these new activities. It thus appears necessary for universities to examine their graduate programs and to develop new and different curricula for Ph.D.‘s who do not intend to enter research careers.

is carried out by the Foundation through a broad range of study activities. Included are studies for the collection and analysis of data concerning the nation’s scientific resources; the development of concepts and projection and modeling techniques relating to these resources; and the correlation and synthesis of information from many sources on the flow of resources to . scientific and technical activities. The more important results of these efforts are highlighted below.

The National

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gineering Doctorate Su@ply and Utilization, 196840. This and subsequent analyses seem to indicate that, by 1980, 820-350,000 science and engineering doctorates (corn1 National Sdenoe Bo~~ndation. Fsdertal dupport to univerdtiv8 0na oozz6gst and Bslmtad Nonprofit Zuetitwtlw, Fiscal Year

DEVELOPMENT OF BASIC TOOLS FOR SCIENCE PLANNING AND POLICYMAKING
The development of an adequate data and methodology base for the making of science policy decisions

I- 0th.

l9tW (NSF 70-27) WaM~lagton.D.C. 20402 : Supt. of Documenta U.S. Government Print-

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A comprehensive review of total national expenditures for research and development over the period 1953 to 1970 was published in fiscal year 1970 in the NSF report, National- Patterns of R&D Resources, The data in this publication were obtained through the periodic NSF surveys of all sectors of the economy. They revealed that in 1970 national R&D expenditures, from both Federal and non-Federal sources, reached an estimated record level of $27 billion. This amount is $1 billion higher than the estimated 1969 level and nearly $7 billion more than in 1965. However, the average annual rate of growth during the 1965-70 period was only 5.9 percent compared with a 9.4 percent average for 1958-65. Furthermore, this growth rate over the last e-year period, 1968-70, has declined to a 3.6 percent level. The major reason for the decline has been a leveling off of R&D support by the Federal Government. Federal expenditures for R&D between 1958 and 1965 grew by 12.3 percent annually but increased by an annual average of only 3.4 percent between 1965 and 1970 and showed no increase at all in the period between 1968-70, remaining constant at about the $15 billion level. (See chart.) The report on national R&D ex-

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the last decade in the proportion of federally sponsored R&D activities TOTAL AND FEDERAL FUNDS USED devoted to areas other than military, FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT space, and atomic energy efforts. 1960-70 Billions of Dollars The share of total Federal funding 30 in agencies other than DOD, NASA, and AEC has risen from 9 percent in 1960 to 18 percent in 1970. In its second annual report to the President and Congress, entitled 2‘ Federal Support to Universities and Colleges and Selected Nonprofit Institutions, 1969, the National Sci- \ i ence Foundation reported that \ Federal support to universities and i colleges for both academic science and nonscience activities totaled 1 $3.5 billion in 1969, a gain of only i 2 percent for the second consecutive year. (See chart.) This report also 2 revealed that academic science programs in recent years have shown an even slower growth rate than nonscience programs, with Federal academic science o;bligations growing by only 1 Percent in 1968 and one-half of 1 percent in 1969. The data for the universities and colleges appearing in this study are gathered under the auspices of the Committee on Academic Science 0 196f and Engineering (CASE) of the (est.) brel.) SOURCE: National Science Foundation Federal Council for Science and Technology. In addition to the report to the penditures also presented infonnaPresident and Congress which preFederal R&D Support tion on the full-time equivalent sents detail for individual instituFederal obligations for research (FTE) number, and sectoral distritions, CASE is collecting data on and development-as distinct from individual federally sponsored unibution, of scientists and engineers R&D expenditures discussed aboveengaged in research and develop versity projects covering both fundtotaled $15,6 billion in fiscal year ing and manpower associated with ment. During 1968, an estimated 1969 and were expected to total the projects. A publication covering 565,000 FTE scientists and engiapproximately the same amount in neers were engaged in research and this project reporting is expected development. Although this was both fiscal years 1970 and 1971. (See during fiscal year 1971. nearly two and one-half times the volume XIX, Federal Funds for ReAt the request of the Federal search, Development, and Other Scinumber employed in R&D activities Council for Science and Techentific Activities. NSF 69-31.) This in 1954, the rate of increase of R&D the National Science scientists and engineers has been de- represents a decline in support from nology, Foundation compiled a Directory the 1967 R&D obligation total of clining in recent years. Between year of the high- of Federal R&D Installations, This 1954 and 1961, the annual average $16.5 billion-the est dollar funding of Federal R&D directory, the first of its kind, was rate of growth of R&D scientists prepared and released for public programs. The report on Federal and engineers was 8.7 percent. This growth rate fell to 4.1 percent be- funding also indicates that there has use in 1970 and provides a comprehensive general reference to R&D been a significant increase during tween 1961 and 1968.

been rising. Thus, it is likely that industrially financed research and development, will continue, to increase as a proportion of total R&D performance. (See chart.) The report Resources for Scientific Activities at Universities and Colleges, 1969, the latest in a series providing information on scientific activities in the nation’s academic institutions, will be published early in fiscal year 1971. This report reveals that in academic year 1968 a total of $7.0 billion was spent by universities and colleges (in current and capital expenditures) for science research and instruction. (This figure does not include funds expended by Federally Financed Research and Developmen’t Centers located at these institutions.) In 1968, R&D expenditures at academic institutions amounted to $2.6 billion, only 10 percent of the national total. In terms of basic research dollars spent, however, more than one-half of the nation’s performance took place in colleges and universities (approximately $2.0 billion out of a national total of $3.7 billion).

establishments owned and directly controlled by the Federal Government. More than 700 installations are listed in the directory with information provided kncerning their location, size, functions, activities, and capabilities. It is anticipated that the directory will be an important mechanism for making more widely known the Federal installations capable of dealing with significant research and technological problems, and that it will also further interagency use of Federal R&D resources.

In contrast to the Federal R&D funding picture, industry has been increasing its financial contribution

to R&D at an increasing rate of growth as reported in the NSF publication Research and Development in Industry, 1968. In 1968 industrial firms sipported 51 percent of their R&D performance with their own funds compared with a decade earlier when companies funded only two-fifths of their R&D activities. In total, industry spent $8.9 billion in 1968 on companyfinanced research and development, and the Federal Government funded an additional $8.6 billion of industrial research and development. Indications are that the amount of Federal support for industrial research and development has been leveling off since 1968, while the amount of company support has

Models and Methodology
In addition to having current, accurate data for planning and policy purposes, it is important to have available suitable models which can assist in putting the data to use. The development and testing of models and methodologies for use in science planning is still in its early stages and the Foundation has continued to encourage and support new exploratory efforts. In 1969-70 the Institute for the Future completed a study designed to improve long-range forecasting techniques. New techniques were developed, tested, and applied prospectively and retrospectively to areas of economics, political science, and technology. Specific cases chosen for analysis included:

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program was originated in fiscal year 1969 as an experimental effort to assist State governments in strengthening their science and technology planning programs. In its first year of operation, many universi ties requested Foundation sup port in working with State governments to improve the utilization of science and technology in their decisionmaking processes. At the same time, efforts of the Federal Government over the past 8 years to share responsibility with State and local governments have tended to emphasize the need for a general program that examines relationships that exist, or should exist, between science, technology, and government. Accordingly, toward the end of fiscal year 1970, the State and Local Intergovernmental Science Policy Planning Program was reconstituted as the Intergovernmental Science Programs, with expanded functions. The objectives of the reorganized program are as follows: 1. To advance the understanding of public issues and problems having scientific and technological content at the State and local levels of government, and to assea needs and opportunities for more effective applications of science and technology; 2. To demonstrate innovative science and technology planning and decisionmaking processes related to State, local, and regional problems; 3. To stimulate selected State and local government experimentation, on a pilot basis, with science and technology systems in the context of their own needs and resources; . 4. To encourage adoption of new systems which show promise for enhancing State and local ability to incorporate science and technology into public programs;

5. To improve communication between persons and groups concerned with science and technology at the Federal, State, and local levels of government. During the past year, a substantial effort has been devoted to support of studies which examine appropriate roles of different levels of government in sponsoring and utilizing research and development. A $320,000 grant was given to the Council of State Governments (1) to analyze current and potential endeavors by Federal, State, and local governments to incorporate scientific considerations into governmental decisions and operations and (2) to assessthe national machinery for development of problem-solving resources. The Council of State Governments and the National Governors’ Conference have established a five governor panel to guide the policy development and implementation of the project and a 20member advisory committee to advise on scientific and technical aspects of the study. A regional science and technology award was given to the Southern Interstate Nuclear Board in association with the States of Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina to explore areas in which multistate problem-solving approaches to might be desirable either because of economics of scale or in areas where problems transcend State boundaries. This study, in addition to an earlier study supported at the University of Tennessee, will also examine how individual States might improve their program and policy relationships with the Federal Government. Another grant was made to the California State Assembly to examine how scientific and technological considerations can be incorporated into the legislative process. In addition, several smaller grants were made to examine dif-

ferent areas of State science and technology policy relating to environmental quality (Louisiana) , technological forecasting (Montana), development of new mechanisms for relating academic research outputs to government decisionmaking (Virginia) , and Federal-State-local support and utilization of research and development in regulating air pollution (Pennsylvania). A grant to use a new technique of simulation to study Federal-State decisionmaking in regard to allocating governmental resources for science and technology was made to the Institute for the Future. To i,mprove communication between governmental leaders and the scientific community, a series of four regional (Southern, Eastern, Western, and Midwestern) and one national conference on Science, Technology and State Government were supported in conjunction with other Federal agencies and State organizations. A survey of scientific and technological advice available to local governments was supported under . . a lomt grant to the New York State Department of Education and the International City Managers Association. This will provide information at the local level to supplement information at the State level that will be obtained under nine State case studies of the science advisory mechanisms to State government supported under earlier NSF grants.

University Science Planning and Policy Program
The University Science Planning and Policy Program is designed to assist in the development of the resources and capabilities of academic institutions for training and research related to science planning and policy activities. The program was established in recognition of a critical need for a better under-

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standing of the many complex science policy issues and the lack of adequately trained manpower to deal with these problems. Institutions currently receiving grants under this program include Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Virginia, State University of New York at Albany, Cornell University, the University of Indiana, Stanford University, and the University of California at Berkeley. These grants help to support teaching, research, and special seminars on such science policy problems as: the use of science in international affairs; scientific and technical manpower; environmental management; technology and the city; nuclear energy, the law and international affairs; the effects of new educational technology; legal and moral implications of modern biology and medicine; the effects of

technology on economic growth; and the organization of large-scale technological projects. The Cornell University Program on Science, Technology and Society has, during the first year of its grant, been successful in involving faculty and students from many disciplines, including the sciences and hum ities, in new courses and seminars jointly sponsored with other units of the university, in such areas as Biology and Society, International Flows of Science and Technology, Social Implications of Technology, Law and Environmental Control, and Technology Assessment. Under recent grants, Harvard will develop a series of case studies which demonstrate the application of analytical teohniques to public policy problems; and Stanford will analyze .the technical and policy alternatives involved in telecommunications and computer technology.