FOREX Robin VOL

www.robinvol.com

User Manual

1. Contents

1.
Contents
Contents

1. 2. 3. 4.

Contents..........................................................................................................................2 Introduction.....................................................................................................................4 Summary of licence permissions.....................................................................................5 Overview.........................................................................................................................6 4.1. FOREX Robin VOL characteristics.............................................................................7 5. Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL...........................................................................8 5.1. Opening a trading account.......................................................................................8 Step 0: Go to www.pepperstone.com and click on “Open Live Trading Account Now” .....................................................................................................................................8 Step 1: Select “Individual Account”.............................................................................9 Step 2: Choose account type: “Standard” or “Razor”................................................10 Step 3 and 4: Fill your personal data in the next two screens...................................12 Step 5: Verify your identity........................................................................................13 Step 6: Fund your account.........................................................................................14 5.2. Install Metatrader 4................................................................................................15 Step 1: Execute the installer......................................................................................15 Step 2: Choose the destination folder........................................................................16 Step 3: Wait for the installer to finish the installation................................................17 Step 4: Close the demo account creation dialog.......................................................18 Step 5: Enter your login credentials...........................................................................19 Step 6: Configure Metatrader to allow “Expert Advisors”..........................................20 5.3. Installing FOREX Robin VOL....................................................................................21 Step 1: Run the FOREX Robin VOL installer, named Robin_VOL-(version).exe..........21 Step 2: Select the Metatrader 4 installation directory...............................................22 Step 3: Launch Metatrader 4 and open a new EURUSD M15 chart............................23 Step 4: Drop FOREX Robin VOL over the EURUSD M15 chart....................................24 Step 5: Basic configuration of FOREX Robin VOL.......................................................25 6. FOREX Robin VOL settings............................................................................................26 Settings......................................................................................................................26 Currency pairs and timeframes.................................................................................28 Researching parameters to run on other pairs and timeframes................................28

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1.
Contents
Contents

7. Strategy description......................................................................................................30 8. Robustness measures...................................................................................................32 9. Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL.......................................................................34 9.1. Analysis goals.........................................................................................................34 9.2. Backtest from 2000 to 2012...................................................................................34 9.3. Backtest preliminary analysis................................................................................36 9.4. Basic statistics extracted from the backtest..........................................................36 9.5. Exposure to high efficient markets.........................................................................37 9.6. More basic statistics...............................................................................................37 9.7. Balance curve.........................................................................................................39 9.8. Drawdown analysis.................................................................................................41 9.9. Profit analysis.........................................................................................................42 9.10. Montecarlo Analysis..............................................................................................45 9.11. Conclusion............................................................................................................48 9.12. Final words...........................................................................................................49 10. Frequently Asked Questions........................................................................................50 11. Support and Troubleshooting......................................................................................51 12. Licence and Terms of Use...........................................................................................52

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2. Introduction

2.
Introduction
Introduction

Thank you for purchasing FOREX Robin VOL. This is a system that has been constantly making money for us for long time and now we have decided to release it. FOREX Robin VOL is designed to be a long term trading EA, which means that it will not make you rich in months. It is designed to generate constant profits month by month on all market conditions while risking a very low amount of money on every trade. FOREX Robin VOL is the product of two years intense work of development and testing on both demo and real money accounts. You can follow our live and demo accounts here:http://www.robinvol.com/real-money-accounts/ We hope you will be satisfied with FOREX Robin VOL as we do. Fernando Monera R&D manager of Open Sistemas

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3. Summary of license permissions

3.
Summary of license permissions
Summary of license permissions

This is an extract of the full “Terms of Use” section. Please, read the full License and Terms of Use section for details. In case there are any discrepancies, the version in the Web Page www.robinvol.com will always have the valid License and Terms of use. Each software purchase includes a granted license to use FOREX Robin VOL on ONE single machine, on UNLIMITED real money accounts and UNLIMITED demo accounts as long as the full license price and subscription fees are paid in full. In case of using operating system virtualization, you can use FOREX Robin VOL on ONE single virtual machine. In case of using Terminal Services or other kind of session virtualization, you can use FOREX Robin VOL on one single concurrent session. The license is for personal use only. Using the software to distribute signals, copy trades, share the software or signals with third parties or use the software on MAM or PAMM account (or any other portfolio management structure) or in any commercial manner is not allowed without express written consent of Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L. and may lead to immediate termination of the license and refund rights. FOREX Robin VOL is for your personal use only. You shall not distribute, exchange, modify, sell, or transmit anything from this Site. FOREX Robin VOL grants you a non-exclusive, non-transferable, limited subscription to use the FOREX Robin VOL product, as long as you comply with the Terms of Use.

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4. Overview

4.
Overview
Overview

FOREX Robin VOL is a Software program that operates on the FOREX market taking automated buying and selling decisions. It operates automatically without the need of any human intervention. FOREX Robin VOL has been designed with the following criteria: ■ To be a Long Term Profitable EA (Expert Advisor) ■ To protect your trading capital by advanced risk management and robustness features, so that whatever happens in the future your trading capital is protected

Picture 1: FOREX Robin VOL user inteface

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4.
Overview
Overview

FOREX Robin VOL can be optimized to operate in different markets and timeframes. By default, it should be setup on EURUSD on M15 timeframe. IMPORTANT NOTE: FOREX Robin VOL is designed to open and close positions by itself. Manual closing of positions is not supported and it will make the Expert Advisor to behave erratically. Manual intervention will be implemented in future releases.

4.1. FOREX Robin VOL characteristics
The main characteristics of FOREX Robin VOL are: ■ Trades only on the open of the bar, which protects the EA against market spikes. ■ Entries, exits and trade management are always based on market conditions. Everything is adapted to the recent volatility of the market. ■ Adds one position on every bar as long as entry conditions are met, so FOREX Robin VOL will risk more capital if the conditions are favorable. ■ The strategy is based on volatility breakout and retracements. ■ It is not a scalper, but tries to catch medium to large movements with trades opened usually 18 to 24 hours. ■ It has loosing periods, sometimes of various months. But the recovery is usually fast. ■ There are a lot of position sizing options to protect your capital: fixed size, percentage of your trading capital, volatility adjusted position sizing and options to trade only a portion of the trading capital. ■ It doesn’t use unsound position sizing tricks, such as martingale, grid or averaging. ■ Very good risk to reward. Baskets are opened with approx. a 1:2 risk/reward ratio, and usually stop loss and take profit are trailed so that risk/reward ratio goes quickly to 1:5 or even more. Default settings are configured to maximize the chances of future profits. Please, see the robustness section to know more about the robustness features implemented.

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5. Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

5.1. Opening a trading account
There are a lot of choices to select a good broker. Personally I like Pepperstone a lot, due to low spreads and quick execution time. The support is very good too. As I like them, I became an “introducing broker” partner of them (I only did this with them). So if you tell them that I was the referrer, I will get a small commission (free for you) and I will help you if you have any problem with them. I will detail here how to open a trading account with Pepperstone. With other brokers the process is very similar.

Step 0: Go to www.pepperstone.com and click on “Open Live Trading Account Now”

Picture 2: Step 0: Click on "Open Live Trading Account Now"

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Step 1: Select “Individual Account”
Select “Individual Account”. Any other kind of account requires more complicated steps not covered by this guide.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 3: Step 1: Select "Individual Account"

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Step 2: Choose account type: “Standard” or “Razor”
Razor has smaller spreads (one kind of commission) but charges additional commission on each trade. Standard has higher spreads but without commissions. Both account types are almost identical in terms of trading costs and execution time, so just choose one of them, for example, Standard.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 4: Step 2: Choose account type

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5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

When asked about leverage, currency and referrer: ■ Leverage: Is the amount of money your broker allows you to manage with one money unit. For example, with a 100:1 leverage, you will use $1 to be able to buy $100. With FOREX Robin VOL recommended settings we will always be far away from the margin limit established by the leverage so this value is not very important and can be changed later. Long story short, select the biggest leverage available. ■ MT4 Account Currency: It is the currency of your account. The best thing to do is to select your country currency. Otherwise you will be adding an additional risk: the currency change. ■ Referrer: If you select “Fernando Monera (fmonera)” as your referrer, I will receive a small commission (which is free for you) and I will be able to help you with any problem you could have with this broker.

Picture 5: Step 2b: Leverage, currency and referrer

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Step 3 and 4: Fill your personal data in the next two screens

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 6: Steps 3 and 4: Fill your personal data

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Step 5: Verify your identity
Just uploading a copy of your id card or passport and any utility receipt to verify your residence is usually enough.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 7: Step 5: Verify your identity

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Step 6: Fund your account
There are a lot of ways to fund your account in Pepperstone. Just choose one suitable to you.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 8: Step 6: Fund your account

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5.2. Install Metatrader 4
Your broker should have given you the download link for the Metatrader 4 Software. Now we are going to install and configure it.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Install Metatrader 4

Step 1: Execute the installer

Picture 9: Step 1: Execute the installer

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Step 2: Choose the destination folder

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Install Metatrader 4

Picture 10: Step 2: Choose the destination folder

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Step 3: Wait for the installer to finish the installation
After pressing the “Finish” button, Metatrader will start.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Install Metatrader 4

Picture 11: Step 3: Wait for the installer to finish

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Step 4: Close the demo account creation dialog
By default, Metatrader shows the demo account creation dialog. Press cancel at this point as you already have real account credentials that was given to you by the broker when you created your account.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Install Metatrader 4

Picture 12: Step 4: Close the demo account creation dialog

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Step 5: Enter your login credentials
In this dialog, enter your login credentials that were given to you by your broker. If you can login correctly, you already have Metatrader 4 correctly installed on your machine.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Install Metatrader 4

Picture 13: Step 5: Enter your login credentials

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Step 6: Configure Metatrader to allow “Expert Advisors”
Select “Tools > Options” and to to the Expert Advisors tab. Be sure that your selections are configured as the following picture:

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Install Metatrader 4

Picture 14: Step 6: Metatrader configuration to allow expert advisors

At this point everything is set-up correctly so you can proceed to install FOREX Robin VOL.

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5.3. Installing FOREX Robin VOL
Step 1: Run the FOREX Robin VOL installer, named Robin_VOL-(version).exe
You should have received the download link and the key/password pair in your e-mail after the purchase. I suppose then that you already have the installer file, named Robin_VOL-(version).exe. Before starting the installer, be sure that Metatrader 4 is not running. When you execute the installer, it will ask you for the serial KEY and the PASSWORD. Please, be sure to enter the correct contact information too.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Installing FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 15: Step 1: FOREX Robin VOL registration screen

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Step 2: Select the Metatrader 4 installation directory

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Installing FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 16: Step 2: Installation directory

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Step 3: Launch Metatrader 4 and open a new EURUSD M15 chart
Launch the Metatrader 4 terminal and open a new EURUSD chart. Select “File > New Chart” and choose EURUSD from the list. Once it is opened, select M15 timeframe. Select “Chart > Periodicity > M15″. The chart should be similar to this one:

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Installing FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 17: Step 3: Open a new EURUSD M15 chart

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Step 4: Drop FOREX Robin VOL over the EURUSD M15 chart
On the navigator list to the left, you will see a tree. Open the “Expert Advisors” folder. You should see Robin-VOL among other Expert Advisors. Drag Robin-VOL and drop it over the EURUSD M15 chart.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Installing FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 18: Step 4: Drop FOREX Robin VOL over the EURUSD M15 chart

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Step 5: Basic configuration of FOREX Robin VOL
The configuration dialog of FOREX Robin VOL will popup after you drag it over the chart. If you still didn’t read FOREX Robin VOL configuration section now it is a very good moment to do so. Default settings are quite safe. Risk settings by default are set at 1% of your trading capital for each trade.

5.
Getting started with FOREX Robin VOL
Installing FOREX Robin VOL

Picture 19: Step 5: FOREX Robin VOL configuration settings

Once you press OK, everything is set up. FOREX Robin VOL will start searching for trading opportunities and open and close trades automatically.

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6. FOREX Robin VOL settings

6.
FOREX Robin VOL settings
FOREX Robin VOL settings

Settings
Here is the description of FOREX Robin VOL Settings: ■ Magic_Number: It is the identifier of FOREX Robin VOL trades. It can be any number, as long as you don't have other Expert Advisor running with the same identification. ■ TradeComment: If you want a commentary on all FOREX Robin VOL trades, set it here. ■ fifo: Setting this option to true will make FOREX Robin VOL close the trades in the “First Input First Output” order, to comply with legislation of some countries. It does not affect the performance, so in future versions this will be the default operating mode and the option will be removed. ■ FixedLots: If you set this option to any value different than 0, all the trades will be opened with the value speciifed. This means that FOREX Robin VOL will not use it's own position sizing algorithms. ■ RiskPercent: The percent of your account to risk on every trade. By default is 1%. It can be further tweaked with the atrAdjustedMM option. Please, set the risk according to your risk aversion profile. As a general guideline, those are the recommended values: ► Low risk:0.7% to 1% ► Medium risk: 1% to 1.5% ► High risk: 1.5% to 2% ■ atrAdjustedMM: Means if the EA should adjust the trade size to the market volatility, decreasing the lot size on volatile markets when stop loss and take profit levels are wide, and increasing the lot size on non-volatile markets. The idea is to earn (or loss) approximately the same percentage of the account no matter how volatile is the market. By default it is false. ■ KeepTradeSizeInBasket: Once the first position is opened, the remaining positions will always have the same lot size. ■ UseMinLotIfUnderMinimum: If calculated lot size is below the minimum lot allowed by the broker, the EA will not trade unless you set this option to "true". In that case, the EA will trade minimum allowed lots. Take into account that you will be risking more than what you configured in the settings. ■ TradesMax: This is the maximum number of concurrent trades that we allow FOREX Robin VOL to open. By default it is 8. Increasing this value shows improved results in backtests but might be difficult to trade from a psychological point of view. In case of doubt, leave it at 8.

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■ fridayClosingHour

6.
FOREX Robin VOL settings
FOREX Robin VOL settings

/ fridayClosingDay: It is the SERVER time at which market closes for the weekend. It is used for two things. The first one is that Robin VOL will deactivate bracketSLTP during weekends so that Stop Loss or Take Profit are not touched due to weekend movements. The second one is for closing all the trades just before market closes in case the option avoidTradesOverWeekend is set to true. For fridayClosingDay, put 0 for Sunday, 1 for Monday, ... 5 for Friday and 6 for Saturday. For example: ► If your broker closes on Friday at 22:00, you must set "fridayClosingDay=5" and "fridayClosingHour=22". ► If your broker closes on Saturday at 00:00, you must set "fridayClosingDay=6" and "fridayClosingHour=0".

■ UseBracketSLTP:

If true, sets a Stop Loss and a Take Profit distanced from the price by bracketSLTPatr times the recent range, updated every time the price moves a minimum distance. This is set as a security measure against server disconnections or other problems. As long as everything is right, this Stop Loss and Take Profit levels should never be triggered by the price. For backtesting, this mode is incompatible with "Open Prices Only". So if you want to test this feature, you should use "every tick". If you set useBracketSLTP to false, Robin VOL will not send StopLoss and TakeProfit to the server. ■ BracketSLTPatr: Represent how far is the security Stop Loss and Take Profit. It is a multiplier of the recent range. ■ UseInitialBalance: If true, it will use only the portion of the total capital specified in "initialBalance" to calculate the position sizing instead of the total account balance. If you will be using this feature, it is very important to activate "All History" in the Account History tab. If false, it will use all the account to calculate the position sizing. ■ InitialBalance: The amount of capital you want Robin VOL to manage. If useInitialBalance is false, then this parameter is ignored. ■ SlowVol: The number of bars of the long period to calculate volatility. ■ FastVol: The number of bars of the short period to calculate volatility. ■ VolRatio: The signal threshold to open trades. ■ Strat_2: Indicates whether we should open trades according to the second strategy or not. ■ osc1period: The period of the first oscillator in Strategy 2. ■ osc2period: The period of the second oscillator in Strategy 2 ■ maPeriod: The period of the Moving Average in Strategy 2. ■ separation: How far the price should be separated from the Moving Average to open a position in Strategy 2.

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■ TP:

6.
FOREX Robin VOL settings
FOREX Robin VOL settings

At which distance we should close favorable positions (related to the recent range) ■ SL: At which distance we should close unfavorable positions (related to the recent range) ■ useTimedExit: Indicates whether we should close positions after some time without reaching SL and TP ■ timedExitBarsTP: Indicates how many bars should pass before activating useTimedExit ■ timedExitFactor: Indicates how much in profit should be the position before closing by Timed Exit. ■ Slippage: Maximum acceptable slippage to open a position ■ useSpreadFilter: Indicates whether we should check the spread before opening a trade. ■ maxSpreadInPips: The maximum allowed spread in case we use spread filter. ■ showInfo: If true, displays the main operating information on the chart. ■ saveScreenshots: If true, saves a screenshot of the screen on every opened trade. Screenshots will be saved in <mt4-folder>\experts\files\.

Currency pairs and timeframes
FOREX Robin VOL with default settings is designed to be run on EURUSD charts on M15 timeframe. More officially supported pairs and timeframes will be announced in the future. There are no problems to run FOREX Robin VOL on other charts at the same time. Just be sure that you set a different Magic_Number for each one. You can research your own configuration. Please, see next section for guidelines on doing that. But note that at the moment, the only supported configuration is default settings.

Researching parameters to run on other pairs and timeframes
There are many parameters that can be tweaked to adapt FOREX Robin VOL to other pairs and timeframes, so that one can diversify the risk. Researching new parameters to run on other pairs and timeframes is done using the Metatrader 4 optimizer. The use of this tool is outside the scope of this document. It is very easy to fall into “over-optimization” (also named “curve-fitting”) when using the optimizer. You could end with what appears to be fantastic parameters to trade based on historical data but, when trading live loose money. Please, read the section about robustness in this manual to know the robustness measures we took to research default settings. Some advices about the Metatrader optimizer: ■ When optimizing or backtesting FOREX Robin VOL, “tick data” backtest and “every bar” backtest gives the same result. So you can use “every bar” and the process will be much quicker.

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■ Good

6.
FOREX Robin VOL settings
FOREX Robin VOL settings

data quality is essential. Ask your broker for high quality data or buy it from reliable sources. ■ You should disable the “genetic” optimization option, as it tends to ignore very good parameter sets ■ You should try to maximize AbsoluteProfit / RelativeDrawdown%. ■ Leave some years outside the optimization process so that you can check on that data if the results are good

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7. Strategy description

7.
Strategy description
Strategy description

FOREX Robin VOL trades volatility breakouts. It enters positions in the direction of the breakout using two different strategies: ■ When the breakout happens ■ On retracements of the breakout As long as the conditions are met, FOREX Robin VOL keeps adding positions in the direction of the breakout every bar. This picture shows FOREX Robin VOL taking some long trades based on volatility breakout and retracement strategies and then some short trades.

Picture 20: FOREX Robin VOL strategy: Buy and Sell trades

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The following picture shows FOREX Robin VOL behavior on May/2012 taking short entries, where both kind of entries can be spotted:

7.
Strategy description
Strategy description

Picture 21: FOREX Robin VOL strategy: Sell trades

FOREX Robin VOL only trade at the close of the bar. This way we are protected against some market spikes and fake movements. If price touches our Take Profit or Stop Loss level, the trade is not closed immediately. Instead, FOREX Robin VOL waits for the closing of the bar to see if the price closes behind those levels. Due to this, the closing price of each trade will always be a bit further from both the Take Profit level and the Stop Loss level.

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8. Robustness measures

8.
Robustness measures
Robustness measures

Robustness is the ability of a given strategy to perform correctly in many different and unknown future market conditions. FOREX Robin VOL is traded on all our real money accounts since 2011. It wasn’t until mid-2012 that we decided to release it as a commercial product. So a lot of care has been put regarding robustness for FOREX Robin VOL. Default settings of FOREX Robin VOL are optimized only from 2000 to 2008. And the rest of the available data (2009 to 2012/May currently) was used to test the settings on unknown data (this is called the out-of-sample period).

Picture 22: Metatrader optimizer

The result is that default settings has been performing brilliantly during the out of sample period, so we can be sure that those settings are not curve-fitted and, most important, it is highly probable that they will keep generating money in the future. Look at the following picture to see the whole data and the period used for optimization in contrast with the period left out:

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8.
Robustness measures
Robustness measures

Picture 23: Red square: optimized period. Blue square: results on unknown data.

It is very easy to optimize a strategy with all the available data and make impressive equity curves. The result is always that in real trading this strategies looses a lot of money. The reason is called “curve-fitting”. Unscrupulous vendors focused only on selling his Expert Advisors and running with the money always uses this trick (among others). On the development roadmap we have planed to include Walk Forward Analysis, so that our out-of-sample period will be effectively the whole data available.

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9. Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL

9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL

9.1. Analysis goals
This is the statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL based on the official backtest. I will try to be very detailed on how to do the analysis so that you can recreate it by your own. Our goal with this analysis is: ■ To understand how FOREX Robin VOL works ■ To understand the loosing periods and the winning periods, and know how to deal with both ■ To understand how to decide if a loosing period is just a temporary drawdown or if the EA has lost it’s edge and must be stopped ■ To understand how to configure the risk ■ To know what to expect in terms of return and risk

9.2. Backtest from 2000 to 2012
Here is the backtest of FOREX Robin VOL between 2000/01/01 to 2012/05/31. The backtest has been generated taking the maximum care to be as reliable as possible. ■ Symbol: EURUSD M15 ■ Interval: 2000/01/01 to 2012/05/31 ■ Risk: Medium (1.3%) ■ Strategies: S1+S2 ■ Settings: Default ■ Data Quality: High (Alpari/Asirikuy) ■ Spread: Medium (1.5) As FOREX Robin VOL opens and closes positions only at the opening of a new bar, the type of backtest can be set to “open prices only”. This backtest is quicker to run than “tick backtest” and it will generate the same results. The results of the backtest are the following:

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Backtest from 2000 to 2012

Picture 24: Summary of results

And this is the balance/equity curve generated by the backtest:

Picture 25: Equity curve

You can download the full backtest from www.robinvol.com.

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9.3. Backtest preliminary analysis
As you can see, during all the 12 years and 5 months, there is a steady increase of equity. The curve is not a perfect straight up one, it has it’s loosing periods. The data is very compressed in this picture, but think that the loosing periods can be of some months length. We will analyze this in the drawdown analysis section. FOREX Robin VOL made 5927 trades since 2000/01/01 with the following results: ■ Average win percentage: 47’06%. This means it lost more positions than it won. This is due to the tight stop losses configured in default settings. ■ Average profit trade / Loss trade: 22,871 / -12,496. So winning trades are almost double sized than loosing trades. You can see that the way FOREX Robin VOL makes money is “cutting looses short and letting profits run”. If the market goes against the opened positions, FOREX Robin VOL closes them immediately. On the contrary, if the market goes in our favor, it let the positions run until it’s statistically defined target. Please, proceed to the rest of the sections for a detailed statistical analysis about FOREX Robin VOL.

9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Backtest preliminary analysis

9.4. Basic statistics extracted from the backtest
This is the basic statistical information extracted from the FOREX Robin VOL backtest:

Picture 26: Main FOREX Robin VOL Statistics

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Basic statistics extracted from the backtest

Explanation of the main statistics: ■ Average annual return: Represents the return rate that FOREX Robin VOL averaged in all 12 years and a half. It averaged a return rate of 57’83% every year. ■ Maximum drawdown %: Represents the deepest loosing period that FOREX Robin VOL had during all the test. To achieve the Average Annual Return of 57’83%, it had to keep trading during loosing periods of -15’99%. ■ Maximum drawdown period in days: Represent the longest loosing period of FOREX Robin VOL. You can see that it had a 6 months long loosing period until it reached a new equity high. We will deeply analyze the drawdown behavior of FOREX Robin VOL later. ■ AAR / Maximum drawdown ratio: Represents the overall quality of an Expert Advisor. Shows how much risk the Expert Advisor took to achieve the Average Annual Return. This value can be used to compare the quality between different Expert Advisors.

9.5. Exposure to high efficient markets
Independently of general statistics, sometimes there are periods in the market where efficiency is high and any trading strategy reduces it’s edge and increases it’s losses. That can be caused by fundamental events for example that are impossible to predict. As the trade frequency increases, any strategy is more susceptible to this efficiency periods of the market (such as August/2011). On this analysis, we calculated how much would be the drawdown if (when) we trade one of such periods of 4 weeks, where we loose 80% of the trades:

Picture 27: Exposure to market high efficient periods

So, during a four week long high efficient market where we have simulated loosing 80% of the trades taken, we see that FOREX Robin VOL is able to preserve the capital and loose only 9,05% of the total balance. Compared to the Average Annual Return, we see that it can recover from this losses very quickly.

9.6. More basic statistics
Below you can see some more interesting statistical information about FOREX Robin VOL:

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
More basic statistics

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
More basic statistics

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
More basic statistics

Picture 28: More statistical information about FOREX Robin VOL

First, you can see that the Overall reward to risk ratio is very good. As we saw in the backtest, the average size of winning trades almost doubles the size of loosing trades. This is very good as it help to recover from drawdown periods very quickly. The Win to loss ratio is 47%. That means that a bit more than half of the trades taken ends as a loose. This is due to cutting losses very quickly if market goes against us.

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
More basic statistics

The Profit factor is is the profit generated by profitable trades divided by the losses generated by losing trades. In essence it represent the money made on winning trades compared to the money lost in loosing trades. The higher, the better. This ratio is not as good as the AAR/Maximum Drawdown we saw previously to measure the quality of an Expert Advisor, but can be used as a reference as it is a value that appears on any Metatrader 4 backtest. You cannot use the Profit factor ratio to compare between different Expert Advisors. On average, FOREX Robin VOL took 9.1 trades per week. Please, note that there will be weeks without trades and weeks with a lot of trades. This is just an average. FOREX Robin VOL shows a very stable behavior in terms of monthly profit. It has faced winning strikes of up to 15 months. But it is much more important to focus on losses: ■ FOREX Robin VOL has faced in the past three consecutive loosing months. Statistically this will happen again, even worse periods (we will focus on this later on the Montecarlo Analysis). One must be prepared to trade through this drawdown periods to be able to achieve the potential earnings. ■ FOREX Robin VOL has faced in the past up to 21 loosing trades and in the future he will pass through this kind of loosing strikes or even worse. It is very important to set the risk level so that this periods don’t affect us psychologically thinking too early that the EA don’t work and stopping it or lowering the risk just before the recovery period. This is the main reason why most people with good strategies ends loosing money on FOREX. You will see many times how FOREX Robin VOL has a profitable basket of trades opened and suddenly it ends closing them at a loss. You have to be confident in that this is the statistically proven optimum behavior. Sometimes this happens, but in the long term, the benefits of letting profits run are much bigger than cutting profits short. Making money should be boring. If you feel excited or worried while trading, you are risking too much.

9.7. Balance curve
Here you can see the logarithmic balance curve from 2000/01/01 to 2012/05/31 of FOREX Robin VOL (the linear balance curve is the one shown in the backtest). A logarithmic equity curve is not constant in the Y axis, but logarithmic. It has the ability to see the drawdown periods better hiding the effect of money compounding.

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Balance curve

Picture 29: This is the logarithmic equity curve of FOREX Robin VOL

Looking at the equity curve we can see that there was periods with good slope and periods where the equity increase is more flat. But in general, FOREX Robin VOL was able to make money on all market conditions during 2000/01/01 to 2012/05/31. Remember that it doesn’t means that it wins always. It means that in the past we had constant positive years. Looking at the equity curve you see that there are dips and loosing periods. In the curve they might be small, but remember that there can be more than three consecutive loosing months. No one can predict what will be the market conditions in the future. The only thing we can do is to test our strategy on as much different market conditions as possible. The fact that FOREX Robin VOL is able to make money even in the

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first years of the backtest where the volatility was low and the EURUSD was so different than it is now shows the high robustness level of the Expert Advisor.

9.8. Drawdown analysis

9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Balance curve

This is the most important section of the analysis in my opinion. It is essential to understand the drawdown periods of FOREX Robin VOL if one wants to make money trading it. Here is the drawdown periods sorted by length of FOREX Robin VOL from 2000/01/01 to 2012/05/31:

Picture 30: Drawdown periods by depth and length of FOREX Robin VOL

We see that the longest drawdown period (174 days, in light red) is almost the deepest too (15,1%, in dark red). There are other drawdown periods too in length and depth. What does all that mean? Well, many things:

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Drawdown analysis

trade FOREX Robin VOL, one must be prepared to trade through similar (or worse, we will see later) drawdown periods without reducing the risk and with confidence that it will eventually recover and make money as it did so many times in the past. ■ Drawdown periods are very usual. The majority of the days trading FOREX Robin VOL are days inside a drawdown period. This is very important to understand. Losses are cutted short, so when market is adverse, FOREX Robin VOL will loose money slowly day by day. But when good conditions come, it made enough money to cover the small losses and reach a new equity high. There is no way to avoid this. This is how FOREX Robin VOL works. If you try to avoid the drawdown periods, you will not be there for the recovery period and you will end up loosing money. This is very important. If you are not prepared to trade through the drawdown periods described in this document, please, don’t buy this Expert Advisor. All strategies in the world are doomed to fail in the future. Even strategies with very serious effort in robustness such as FOREX Robin VOL. We will see later in the Montecarlo analysis section how to identify this and consequently stop trading it. For most people, 16% to 20% drawdown is the maximum they can psychologically accept. Please, be sure to set the risk of FOREX Robin VOL so that you will not be worried while trading through a long and deep drawdown period. It is important to dedicate some care to the risk settings in the beginning and don’t let fear and greed influence you.

■ To

9.9. Profit analysis
The following picture shows the annual returns (in red) compared with a strategy of buy-and-hold in the S&P500 (in orange) of FOREX Robin VOL during the period of 2000/01/01 to 2012/05/31:

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Profit analysis

Picture 31: Yearly yields of FOREX Robin VOL (red) compared with S&P500 strategy of buy and hold(orange)

We can see in this graph that the distribution of earnings is stable, specially on the recent years. We can see very good years with returns of 113% and 174%, and discrete years with just a 17%. On 2012 up until may we have a 15% accumulated, which coincides with what we can see on our real money accounts. One thing to note is that obviously, the increase in volatility of the markets in recent years is very good for this strategy.

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Profit analysis

Picture 32: Monthly return of FOREX Robin VOL between 2000/01/01 and 2012/05/31

On this chart we immediately can see that the majority of months were winning months, and that winning months were bigger than loosing months. We can see that the average monthly return is near 4%. You can see that sometimes there are two or even three consecutive loosing months. You can see that loosing months are not rare at all. Every 4 or 5 months there was a loosing month on average. On some months FOREX Robin VOL lost around 6.5% of the trading capital. Contrasting with the loosing months, there was incredibly good months too with earnings of almost 28%. You have to realize that loosing months can happen at any time. Even the first month you trade this strategy. This is the reason that you must be sure you know how FOREX Robin VOL operates and it’s statistical characteristics described in this document.

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Before trading it live, be sure you understand this section and this whole document about how FOREX Robin VOL works. Do not hesitate to ask us whatever you don’t understand.

9.10. Montecarlo Analysis

9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Profit analysis

Montecarlo Analysis is extremely important, as it focus not on how FOREX Robin VOL traded in the past, but on how it will probably trade in the future. And we can only make money trading in the future not in the past. If we classify the trades of the EA in terms of outcome, we can calculate the probability of getting each kind of outcome. With this data, we can run a simulation called Montecarlo analysis that generate the same number of trades as the original backtest of the Expert Advisor but with random outcomes complying the trade classes described above. In essence, what we get is other possible outcomes of the EA within similar kind of trades. We run 100,000 simulations. I give much more importance to the information obtained from Montecarlo simulations than the information obtained in backtests. The reason is that a backtest is just one possible outcome obtained from all the universe of outcomes that the statistical characteristics of the EA can generate. The data we obtain from the Montecarlo simulation is the following:

Picture 33: Montecarlo Statistical Analysis of FOREX Robin VOL

The first important thing to note is that of all 100,000 iterations, the average drawdown of all but the 5% worst is 11,91%, and the Average Maximum Drawdown is 7,87%. So the interesting conclusion is that the backtest is not a statistical oddity, in fact, there are very good probabilities that FOREX Robin VOL will perform even better in the future.

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Montecarlo Analysis

We will talk about the Worst Case values later, as they are extremely important to identify when the strategy has lost it’s edge in the market. We see that on average in all simulations, the Average Compounded Yearly Profit is 69.4%, which is even better than what showed us the backtest. The most accurate method to measure the quality of an Expert Advisor is the last two values. They compare the Expected Annual Return with the Worst case drawdown and the drawdown of the first 95% simulations. In the case of FOREX Robin VOL, those values are extremely good (3.45 and 5.83), which gives us a lot of confidence on the robustness of the strategy. Here you can see three example simulation results (a good one, an average one and a bad one) from all the 100,000 we ran in the Montecarlo Simulator. On all pictures, the red line represents the result, the purple line is the average of all iterations and the green line is the worst case values (both purple and green lines are the same in all three simulations, only the red line changes):

Picture 34: Good Montecarlo simulation of FOREX Robin VOL

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Montecarlo Analysis
Picture 35: Montecarlo simulation of FOREX Robin VOL, showing results similar to the average of all the simulations.

Picture 36: Bad Montecarlo simulation of FOREX Robin VOL

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9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Montecarlo Analysis

The green line is extremely important for us. It is the line that separates the worst 5% simulations. Above the green line happened 95% of the 100,000 simulations launched. As I said many times, ALL strategies in the world are doomed to fail in the future. All, with no exception. We will use the green line to identify if the strategy has lost it’s edge and decide what to do then (stop trading the strategy, trade other configuration, reoptimization, …). The thing that we actually made money even on the worst case is something I like. This means for me that the strategy has a solid edge. Looking at many different iterations, I visually can see that the possible scenarios are not too wide. This is good, as the possible results you will get live will probably not be very different than the one from the analysis. So, how would I know if the strategy is in drawdown or it just stopped working? One good way to answer is: stop trading when our EA is trading near the green line (worst iteration in 100,000). On the table where we had the Montecarlo results, the green line is the Worst Case Drawdown Scenario. For the risk specified in the backtest (1.3% per trade), the montecarlo analysis would tell us that if we get a drawdown of 20.12% or 30 consecutive losses we should stop trading the Expert Advisor and rethink what to do, as we would be trading outside the statistical boundaries considered normal (95% of the iterations). As we are trading concurrent trades, I think it is wise to give a little more room to the Worst Case Scenario. Instead the 20.12% I personally prefer to set it at around 30% for this risk settings. But this level is very personal. It is your business decision. Once we reach the Worst Case Scenario, it is your responsibility as a trader and business manager to take a business decision with all the information available. Maybe we reach the Worst Case Scenario due to a bad weekend gap against us caused by a news event or maybe just the inefficience this EA exploits with this settings have been erased from the market. So in case you use 1.3% risk on every FOREX Robin VOL trade, even if you are facing a 20% drawdown of your account you should keep trading it without modifying the risk settings, as that is statisticaly normal and it should recover from the drawdown and reach a new high. One interesting way I like to see this is: “Once I reach 20.12% profit, I will be in a free ride. Until then, the money on risk belongs to the market.”

9.11. Conclusion
This EA has all the characteristics I need to classify an Expert Advisor as long term profitable: trading at the close of the bar, robust default settings, good risk to reward ratio, is not a scalper and it has a very profitable parameter space that makes FOREX Robin VOL very robust against market changes (you could put almost any random parameter settings and it will probably manage to make money in the end).

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I like that in the end it will probably be able to end generating money even in the worst case, but one has to be incredibly strong psychologically to keep trading it keeping the same risk during the long and deep drawdown periods.

9.12. Final words

9.
Statistical analysis of FOREX Robin VOL
Conclusion

It is a bit strange to analyze my own Expert Advisor. I tried to be as unbiased as possible, following the same analysis procedure as I did on many other Expert Advisors as you can see on DonnaForex site. I tried to be as explicit as possible so that you can generate your own analysis. With FOREX Robin VOL, I tried to create an EA based on a solid edge so that I would be confident to trade my own money. I put a lot of effort on robustness, implementing all my knowledge to make FOREX Robin VOL trade in the future in a similar way as it traded in the past. There are very few Expert Advisors on which I trust to manage my personal money. I invested a lot of effort to make FOREX Robin VOL one of them. Fernando Monera.

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10. Frequently Asked Questions

10.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions

Please, go to http://www.robinvol.com/faq/ to look for frequently asked questions and the answers.

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11. Support and Troubleshooting

11.
Support and Troubleshooting
Support and Troubleshooting

■ The

main support and updates are managed through http://www.donnaforex.com forum, where FOREX Robin VOL has it's own section. Please, register on that forum (it's free) and look for the FOREX Robin VOL subsection. ■ If you want to ask us a support question directly, please, use the contact form here: http://www.robinvol.com/contact/

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12. Licence and Terms of Use

12.
Licence and Terms of Use
Licence and Terms of Use

Thanks for your interest in www.robinvol.com and FOREX Robin VOL product. By using or accessing this site and all the published information, private areas and software from this site (including the purchased software) you agree that this is a legally binding document. You also agree to be bound by the terms and conditions described below. If you do not wish to be bound by those terms and conditions, you have no permission to access www.robinvol.com or use any software from this site. You understand and agree to accept this Agreement is, legally, the same as manually signing this Agreement. Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L. (the owner) reserves the right, to change this Agreement. This changes shall be published on www.robinvol.com site and such changes shall be effective immediately upon posting. You agree that your use of www.robinvol.com site or any of the software from this site are bound to this Agreement. If within fifteen (15) calendar days after a change in the agreement you do not close your work with FOREX Robin VOL or www.robinvol.com, shall mean that you accept the changes. Changes required by law, however, will be effective immediately. Trading any financial market involves risk. The contents of this website are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell any financial market. The contents of the website, newsletter and members area are for general information and educational purposes only. By using this website or using/viewing any part of this website you agree to the terms laid out in this agreement. FOREX Robin VOL is for your personal use only. You shall not distribute, exchange, modify, sell, or transmit anything from this Site. FOREX Robin VOL grants you a non-exclusive, non-transferable, limited subscription to use the FOREX Robin VOL product, as long as you comply with these TERMS AND CONDITIONS. Each software purchase includes a granted license to use FOREX Robin VOL on ONE single machine, on unlimited real money accounts and unlimited demo accounts as long as the full license price and subscription fees are paid in full. In case of using operating system virtualization, you can use FOREX Robin VOL on ONE single virtual machine. In case of using Terminal Services or other kind of session virtualization, you can use FOREX Robin VOL on one single concurrent session. The license is for personal use only. Using the software to distribute signals, copy trades, share the software or signals with third parties or use the software on MAM or PAMM account (or any other portfolio management structure) or in any commercial manner is not allowed without express written consent of Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L. and may lead to immediate termination of the license and refund rights. Prior to purchasing and installing any software from www.robinvol.com site, you must agree to the conditions and terms of this document. If you do not agree with the terms of this document, do not use, install or copy this software. All materials on www.robinvol.com, including but not limited to audio, images, software, text, and video clips, are protected by copyright under U.S. copyright law, international conventions, and other copyright laws. You shall not

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12.
Licence and Terms of Use
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use the materials, except as specified herein. You agree to follow the instructions on www.robinvol.com, limiting the use of the materials. Any unauthorized use of the materials on www.robinvol.com may violate copyright laws, trademark laws, the laws of privacy and publicity, and civil and criminal statutes. You can read, download and print the information contained on www.robinvol.com for your own personal use, as long as you agree not to change the information used and always cite www.robinvol.com as the source of the information. All products and referenced trademarks on the site belongs to Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L., and must not be used or distributed without its permission. No one was compensated for their testimonial. However testimonials are not indicative of future performance or success. Unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results! No representation is being made that any account or trader will or is likely to achieve profits or loses similar to those discussed on this website. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Open Sistemas cannot guarantee that the software available for downloading will be free of infection of worms, viruses, trojan horses or other code that manifest contamining or destructive properties. You are responsible for implementing sufficient procedures to satisfy your security requirements. You assume total responsibility and risk for your use of the site and hyperlinked sites. The site owner provides the site and related information “as is” and does not make any express or implied warranties, representations or endorsements whatsoever (including without limitation warranties of tittle or noninfringement, or the implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose) with regard to the site, any merchandise information or service provided through the site or on the internet generally, and the site owner shall not be liable for any cost or damage arising either directly or indirectly from any such transaction. It is solely your responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of all opinions, advice, services, merchandise and other information provided through the site or on the internet generally. The site owner does not warrant that the site will be uninterrupted or error-free or that defects in the site will be corrected. You agree to indemnify, defend and hold harmless Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L., it’s officers, directors, employees, agents, licensors, suppliers and any third party information providers to the service from and against all losses, expenses, damages and costs, including reasonable attorneys fees, resulting from any violation of this Agreement (including negligent or wrongful conduct) by you or any other person accessing the site. When purchasing FOREX Robin VOL, you agree to pay the yearly fee, starting one year after the purchase. You can cancel your yearly payment at any time for any reason. To do so, you just need to send an e-mail to support@robinvol.com explaining this. Please do note that when you cancel your payment, FOREX Robin VOL will stop working on all your demo and live accounts. You take total responsibility of the consequences that this action may pose on any opened trades in your trading accounts. You can restart your membership at any time as well, but due to price changes we cannot guarantee your fee will be the same. Trading carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you

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could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Although we make every attempt to assure accuracy, we do not give any express or implied warranty as to its accuracy. We do not accept any liability for any error or omission. There are some trading examples posted in our site. These are for illustrative purposes only so please do not be construe them as investment advice or strategy. Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L., www.robinvol.com and it’s representatives do not and cannot give investment advice or invite customers to engage in investments through this website. We or any of these persons mentioned above, are never to be held liable by you for any: “direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of your access to, or use of, the site. Without limiting the foregoing, everything on the site is provided to you ‘AS IS’ WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR NON INFRINGEMENT.” We do our best to insure that the website and our EA authentication service is available 24 hours per day but we cannot be held liable if for any reason the site is not available. Do not interpret information or examples published on this site as a promise or guarantee of earnings. There is no guarantee that you will earn any money or income at all using the techniques and ideas in or through these materials or products. We are not responsible for any of your actions. All the software purchased will only run when verified on our servers. Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L. cannot be held responsible for any disruption or failure of service during the verification process. Open Sistemas de Informacion Internet, S.L. reserves all rights to modify the subscription fees, or completely discontinue all or part of her services for all her software and/or products for any reason with a 30-day written notice to all her customers prior to the change. Refunds will be granted to you, the purchaser, under the following conditions: 1. You must contact us at support@robinvol.com, within 60 calendar days (“the refund period”) after date of purchase and request a refund in writing. 2. Please, be advised that when you sent a refund request, your product activation key will be immediately deactivated and you will no longer be able to use the software. 3. The maximum claim that may be made by you against ourselves whether in a single class action or multiple claim action, including all costs and sundries, shall be limited to the initial amount paid to us when purchasing the software. 4. We wish to protect our assets and the interest of our paying customers. If we detect customers are decompiling/modifying/cracking/selling signals/or performing any other acts related copyright infringement as

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Licence and Terms of Use

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