Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forwardlooking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net income if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks our subsidiaries insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; the cycles of the insurance market, which can substantially influence our and our competitors premium rates and capacity to write new business; changes in economic conditions, including interest rates and the securities markets, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain favourable financial or claims-paying ability ratings; an inability to realize our investment objectives; exposure to credit risk in the event our subsidiaries reinsurers or insureds fail to make payments; a decrease in the level of demand for our subsidiaries products, or increased competition; an inability to obtain reinsurance coverage at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect our subsidiaries; an inability to obtain required levels of capital; an inability to access cash of our subsidiaries; risks associated with requests for information from government authorities; risks associated with current government investigations of, and class action litigation related to, insurance industry practice; the passage of new legislation; and the failure to realize future income tax assets. Additional risks and uncertainties are described on pages 195 205 in our 2011 Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca. For a fuller detailing of issues and risks relating to the company, please see Risk Factors in Fairfaxs most recent Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada and the United States, which is available on SEDAR and EDGAR. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.
2011
Per Share
Book Value Share Price (C$) Investments Net Premiums Written $ $ $ $ 1.52 3.25 4.80 2.44 $ $ $ $ 365 437 1,194 275
Growth
240x 134x 249x 113x
Guiding Principles
Objectives
We expect to compound our book value per share over the long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers, employees and shareholders at the expense of short term profits if necessary Our focus is long term growth in book value per share and not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal means as well as through friendly acquisitions We always want to be soundly financed
Guiding Principles
Structure
Our companies are decentralized and run by the presidents except for performance evaluation, succession planning, acquisitions and financing, which are done by or with Fairfax. Cooperation among companies is encouraged to the benefit of Fairfax in total
Complete and open communication between Fairfax and its subsidiaries is an essential requirement at Fairfax Share ownership and large incentives are encouraged across the Group Fairfax head office will always be a very small holding company and not an operating company
Guiding Principles
Values
Honesty and integrity are essential in all of our relationships and will never be compromised We are results-oriented not political We are team players no "egos. A confrontational style is not appropriate. We value loyalty to Fairfax and our colleagues. We are hard working but not at the expense of our families We always look at opportunities but emphasize downside protection and look for ways to minimize loss of capital We are entrepreneurial. We encourage calculated risk-taking. It is all right to fail but we should learn from our mistakes We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition We believe in having fun at work!
Financial Results
2006 Book Value per Share Growth in Book Value per Share (1) Common Shareholders' Equity ($ billions) $ 150 $ 2010 376 2% $ 2011 365 (3%)
2.7
7.7
7.4
$ 1,139
1,194
11.6%
11.1%
11.1%
7.3%
(2.4%)
(11.0%)
(1) Except for S&P 500 (compound index return excluding dividends)
17.3%
(1) Except for S&P 500 (compound index return excluding dividends)
Ongoing operations Underwriting profit (loss) Interest and dividend income Operating income Net gains on investments Runoff Interest expense Loss on repurchase of long term debt Corporate overhead, taxes and other Net income
Japan Tohoku earthquake and tsunami Thailand floods U.S. tornadoes New Zealand earthquake Hurricane Irene Australian floods Other Total
Combined Ratio
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
78.9% 103.4% 75.3% 70.0% 101.5% 151.4% 63.1% 81.7% 90.5% 87.2% 127.5% 97.5%
Total
6,957
96.7%
International Coal
Share Price $16 $14 $12 $10 Cost per Share $4.58 Sale Price per Share $7.26 Cost per Share $1.81 (average $3.62) Sale Price per Share $14.60 (Average $10.93)
$8
$6 $4 $2
$0
2006
2008
2009
2010
June 2011
Net Premiums Written ($ millions) Northbridge Crum & Forster Zenith National OdysseyRe Fairfax Asia
(1) IFRS total equity
(1) (1)
2,500
Gross Premiums Written
OdysseyRe
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Soft Market
0 1999 2000 2001 2002
Hard Market
2003 2004 2005
(1) Second half of 2011 versus second half of 2010, as Zenith National was acquired in May 2010
Fairfax Asia Falcon Insurance (Hong Kong) Pacific Insurance (Malaysia) First Capital (Singapore) Falcon Thailand (1) ICICI Lombard (India) (1)
Insurance - Other Fairfax Brasil Alliance Insurance (Dubai) Gulf Insurance (Kuwait) (1) Alltrust Insurance (China)
Importance of Float
Year-End Float (Operating Companies) 1985 2011
Average cost of float: 2.8% 14.4 billion $ 707 / share (+10% over the 2010 float of $641 per share)
Importance of Float
Year-End 2011 ($ millions) Total Float Common Shareholders' Equity Net Liabilities Total Investment Portfolio 14,399 7,428 2,495 24,322 Per Share $ $ $ 707 365 122
$ 1,194
24
Per Share
At December 31, 2011 ($ millions) Northbridge Crum & Forster Zenith National OdysseyRe Total 166 122 62 303 653
Acquisitions in 2011
William Ashley 100% ownership
Since 1947, William Ashley has been recognized in North America as the leader within the dinnerware and wedding registry industries
Investment Performance
Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance
As at December 31, 2011 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years Common stocks (with equity hedging) S&P 500 8.7% (0.2%) 15.8% 2.9% 14.2% 5.5%
13.3% 6.0%
12.5% 5.8%
10.4% 6.3%
Notes:
Shares Owned (millions) Wells Fargo Johnson & Johnson U.S. Bancorp 20.0 7.4 15.9 $ $ $
Financial Strength
2010 2011
($ millions) Subsidiary Debt Holding Company Obligations Total Debt Holding Company Cash and Marketable Securities Net Debt 919 1,810 2,729 1,474 1,255 624 2,395 3,019 963 2,056
Total Equity & Non-controlling Interest Net Debt/Net Total Capital Total Debt/Total Capital
2009 = 382.8 1933 = 299.8 2003 = 301.4 2000 1998 1928 1916 = 170.4 156.4
Total Private
Federal
380% 360% 340% 320% 300% 280% 260% 240% 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
1886
1902
1918
1934
1950
1966
1982
1998
2011
3.5 Unemployment Rate (right scale) 4.0 4.5 5.0 Industrial Production (left scale) 5.5 Last seen in 2005 6.0 6.5 7.0
7.5
8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0
115
7.0
110
7.5
100
9.0
9.5 95 10.0
90
85 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Japans GDP Flat in spite of Massive Loss of Wealth and Private Sector De-leveraging
(Sep. 1990=100) (Sep.1990=100, Seasonally Adjusted)
140 Nominal GDP (Right Scale) 120 Real GDP (Right Scale)
130
100
85
60
70
40 Last seen in 1973 20 Land Price Index in Six Major Cities (Commercial, Left Scale) 0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
55 down 40
87%
25
Cumulative Loss of Wealth on Shares and Real Estate ~ 1500 trillion ~ USD 18.5 trillion
Annual Compound Return - December 31, 2011 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years Long US Treasury Bonds (1) S&P 500
(2)
35.6% 2.1%
11.2% (0.3% )
8.8% 2.9%
8.3% 5.5%
8.0% 7.8%
(1) Barclays Capital 30 year Bellwether (2) S&P 500 compound index return including dividends
($ millions)
Total cost Total market value 421 208
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
-10.0%
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 9 Peer 10 Peer 11 Average Fairfax
Source: SNL Financial LC; Returns calculated by Fairfax
5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.5% 9.7%