81 (Feb 13) 71.Key Economic Indicators Reverse Repo (%) Repo (%) Bank Rate (%) CRR (%) SLR (%) Investment Deposit Ratio (%) Credit Deposit Ratio (%) Fed Rate (%) Inflation (WPI) (%) GDP (Estimated) (%) Export USD bn (Provisional) Import USD bn (Provisional) Trade Deficit USD bn (Provisional) IIP (M-o-M %) CPI-IW Money Supply (%) Bank Credit (%) Aggregate Deposits (%) Forex Reserves USD bn Mar 31 3.07 (Jan 09) -0.91 (Feb 09) -1.90 (Feb 13) 19.91 (Feb 09) 16.50 5.00 31.38 (Jan 09) 18.25 0.82 (Feb 09) -4.27 (Feb 27) Change Top .26 (Mar 28) 7.45 (Jan 09) -6.00 24.25 2.72 (Mar 13) 72.00 5.00 5.2 (Feb 09) 148 (Feb 09) 19.0.00 6.20 (Mar 13) 252.43 (Feb 28) 7.00 24.10 (FY 09) 12.32 (Mar 27) Feb 28 4.50 6.08 (Mar 13) 0 .5 (Jan 09) 148 (Jan 09) 19.70 (Mar 13) 18.10 (Mar 13) 21.0.10 (FY 09) 11.50 (Feb 13) 21.00 31.81 (Feb 13) 0 .40 (Feb 13) 249.00 5.

Source.9% over the corresponding quarter of previous year.3% compared to 8.0%. Whereas.1% (AE).Ministry of Commerce Source.Ministry of Commerce .CSO QE = Quick Estimate AE = Advance Estimate Source. growth rate for FY08 stood at 9. However GDP growth estimates for the FY09 stood at 7.GDP India's quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant prices for the third quarter of 2008-09 is showing a decline in the growth rate to 5.CSO Source.

4% in Capital goods and -5. with the overall growth in Consumer goods being -3.3 10.3 218.5% in ‘Wood and Wood Products. In terms of industries.3 6. the industry group ‘Metal Products and Parts.IIP Index of Industrial Production for the month of February 2009 fell by 1.0 549. Tobacco and Related Products’.1% in ‘Food Products‘ and 16.4% in Basic goods.9 9.1 5.2 320.CSO Inflation India’s inflation rate as measured by wholesale price index (WPI) stood at 0.6% in ‘Other Manufacturing Industries’ and 6. as many as eight out of the seventeen industry groups have shown positive growth during the month of February 2009 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. The Mining.6 9.4% and 0. 10.7 8.5% respectively.4 5.0 9.8% over the corresponding period of the pervious year.8 138.0 Week ended on 21st March 2009* 227.8 7.5 7.7 4. Furniture and Fixtures’.0 242.6%.3 245.9 140.3 2.6 -1. power.5% in December 2008.Office of the Economic Advisor *Figures are provisional .7% respectively in the month of February 2009 compared to February 2008. The decrease in the WPI based inflation was due to downward movement of primary articles.8 2.4 0.9 172.5 204.9 200. As per Use-based classification. Source.5 Source. except Machinery and Equipment’ have shown a negative growth of 31. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 5. On the other hand. Items Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Primary articles Food Articles Non-Food Articles Minerals Fuel. as compared to 0.2 9. The cumulative growth for the period April-February 2008-09 stands at 2.8 2. light & lubricants Manufactured products Food Products Textiles Machinery & Machine Tools Paper & Paper Products Chemicals & Chemical Products Week ended on 28th March 2009* 227.7% and -5.6%.7 241.0 214.2% compared to a fall of 0.26% for the week ended March 28th 2009.4% in Intermediate goods. followed by 12.3 -1.2 213.8 622.4 2. The industry group ‘Machinery and Equipment other than Transport Equipment’ have shown the highest growth of 15.0 218.6 320.9 200.3 245.3% in ‘Beverages.2 204.8 -2.3% followed by 28.7 -1.1 14.2 -0.7 8.8 9.CSO IIP SECTORAL Mining Manufacturing Electricity General USE-BASED Basic goods Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumer durables Consumer non-durables Growth (February) 2007-2008 2008-09 7.7 -5.6 227.1 Source.8 Change Unchanged Decrease Increase Increase Decrease Unchanged Increase Increase Increase Increase Decrease Increase Growth (April-February) 2007-2008 2008-09 5. Manufacturing and Electricity sectors registered growth rates of -1.7 9.8 225. the Sectoral growth rates in February 2009 over February 2008 are -0.3 -1.6 8.4 10.6 172.3 17.4 2. -1.0%.4 -5.5 3.31% for the previous week.

43 0.60 cr in the month of February 2009. Mutual funds were net buyers of Rs. 1.436. 2008 24 May. 2008 30 August. 2008 27 September. 2. 2009 28 March.41 7.00 5. 530. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.Source.10 11. 2008 26 July. Sensex and Nifty surged by more than 9% gaining 816.24 11.72 8.61 8.80 crore in the month of March 2009 in as compared to net seller of Rs. Movement of Sensex. 2008 25 October.30 crore in the month of March 2009 as compared to net sellers of Rs. 2008 28 June.Office of the Economic Advisor & Labour Bureau Source.50 crore in the month of February 2009. 2009 28 February. 2008 29 November.80 10.39 2.01 12.547. 1.26 Top Key Highlights Key benchmark indices.RBI CPI (IW) and WPI data Month March April May June July August September October November December January February March CPI (IW) 137 138 139 140 143 145 146 148 148 147 148 148 Week ended 29 March.89 points and 257. 2008 27 December. 2009 WPI (%) 7.91 4.89 12. Net FIIs & Mutual Funds Investment . 2008 26 April. 2008 31 January.495.30 points respectively for the month ended March 2009.

88% and 2. will increase hurt the investors’ sentiments was overshadowed by the Federal Reserve’s trillion dollar plan to buy toxic assets from banks. A sharp fall in inflation making room for the RBI to slash rates overshadowed decline in IIP for second month in a row in January 2009 causing key benchmark indices to gain.000 and 3.51% respectively tracking the rally in markets worldwide. domestic indices continued to mimic the global markets registering hefty gains for most of the week. Although. European markets also posted positive returns with CAC 40 and FTSE 100 gaining by 3.800 levels respectively.000 mark as investors remained anxious about the stability of the financial system after insurer American International Group posted an astounding USD 62 billion loss for the fourth quarter. Key benchmark indices. Market began week three on an affirmative note backed by significant buying due to strong cues from the global market throughout the week. But buying by foreign funds and expectations of a further cut in policy rates by the Reserve Bank of India continued to aid the surge. Although.5%.5 and 3.31%) respectively.5% each causing Sensex and Nifty to drop below 8. A startling leap in housing starts to an unexpected 22. Anticipation of new set of measures by central bank’s worldwide raised optimism of a quicker end to the worst global slowdown in decades. fall in headline inflation to almost zero figures and short covering in the derivatives segment ahead of the expiry of March 2009 contracts lifted the key benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty causing them to breach the psychological 10.600 marks. Sensex and Nifty surged by more than 5% and 4% respectively after the US government reviled plan to buy USD 1 trillion of toxic bank assets to help the US financial system. Hopes of recovery in the domestic economy. During second week.Indian equities market began the last month of FY 2009 on subdued note as weak global indices and unease over deteriorating economic conditions back home caused key benchmark indices to plummet.3% also helped US markets to rise.95 up by 816. anticipating an expanded bailout from the government.000 mark respectively.708.000 and 2. volatility gripped the domestic bourses ahead of the expiry of March 2009 derivatives contracts. each by 50 basis points with immediate effect early in March failed to render any relief to the Indian markets as widely anticipated. during the month Dow Jones did plunged below 7. Significant selling by foreign institutional investors also fueled the downbeat sentiments across the board. It helped generate positive sentiments in the domestic market as well causing Sensex and Nifty to cross 9. By the end of the month. buying by foreign funds and higher Asian stocks lifted the domestic bourses. The Reserve Bank of India’s cut in both repo and reverse repo rates.400 and 2. . Sensex & P/E Return on major Global Indices for March 2009 US markets closed the month of March 2009 registering handsome gains thanks to the Obama Administration’s plan to buy USD 1 trillion of bonds.020. speculation that losses at banks and credit-card defaults at American Express Co.20% in February and less than expected shrink in the fourth-quarter GDP to 6. The Obama administration’s mortgage rescue plan to help millions of struggling homeowners stay in their homes also infused positive sentiments in the US market.89 points (9.3 points (9. On the contrary.19%) and 257. In the month of March. Sensex and Nifty ended the month at 9. European Central Bank also reduced the interest rate by 50 bps to 1. Rise in the markets worldwide also helped indices back home. very next day domestic markets tanked more than 2.

64% respectively. Union Bank (up by 13.76%. Shanghai Composite rose by 13.34% followed by Patni Computers.97%. Consumer Durables: All the 5 scrips in BSE Consumer Durables delivered positive returns with Gitanjali Gems being the major gainer posting 18. Sterlite Industries led the gainers posting 45. Gammon India (down by 6.44%).35%.S.88%) followed by GMR Infra.61% and 20. FMCG: 2 out of the 12 companies belonging to BSE FMCG delivered negative returns led by Hind.37% respectively. led by Financial Technologies which gained by 46. 18. 21.45%). HPCL and BPCL losing by (11.94% as China’s Premier Wen Jiabao said the country’s economic growth target of 8% for this year is within reach and reassured of further stimulus measures.77%). Mahindra Lifespace gained by staggering 38. 15.75%). Return on BSE Midcap & Smallcap Indices for March 2009 . Healthcare: 16 out of 22 scrips posted positive returns led by Matrix Labs (up by 56. Power: 12 out of 15 scrips in BSE Power delivered positive returns led by Siemens (up by 23. 18.40% and 16.16% gains.05%. Dabur India was the top gainer registering 8.62%) and Federal bank (up by 11.52% gains on the bourses.86%).83%) and Crompton Greaves (down by 1. Mahindra & Mahindra.12%). Aurobindo Pharma (up by 26. IT: 12 out of 14 scrips in BSE IT gave positive returns.81% followed by Phoenix Mills up by 30.Asian markets surged tracking strong cues from US and European markets with on optimism that China and Japan will widen efforts to shore up growth in the region’s two largest economies. Oil & Gas: Only 3 out of 11 scrips in BSE Oil and Gas delivered negative returns namely. Metal: All 15 scrips in BSE metal index were able to deliver positive returns except for Gujarat NRE coke which fell by 2. G20 nations taking a vow to combat the global recession and a U. (3. Realty: Only 2 scrips gave negative return out of 14 scrip pack with Akruti City being the top loser down by (20.25%. Wipro and Aptech up by 31.36%). Mphasis.78%. plan to rid banks of up to USD 1 trillion of toxic assets helped Asian markets to gain.33%).52% for the month of March 2009. Return on BSE Sectoral Indices for March 2009 Below mentioned are some of the scrips’ (Sector-wise) performance on the bourses: Auto: All of the 14 scrips on BSE Auto posted positive returns expect Amtek Auto which gave negative returns to the tune of 14. 16. Bilcare slipped down by 9. IOCL.46%. Axis bank (up by 19. Capital Goods: Only 3 out of 26 scrips in BSE Capital Goods gave negative returns led by Alstom Projects (down 10. Neyveli Lignite and ABB up by 20.95%). Unilever (down by 6. GVK Power Infra.78%).36%. 16.88%) and Opto Circuits (up by 20.15%) and United Breweries (down by 0.16%) followed by Anant Raj Industries down by (10.13%). Nikkei 225 surged over 7% anticipating that the government will introduce additional stimulus measures to lift the sagging economy.77% returns. Biocon (up by 42. Apollo Tyres and Tata Motors gave positive returns of 23.65%. Bankex: 12 out of 18 scrips posted positive return on BSE Bankex led by Punjab National Bank (up by 21.07%).46%. Dr.77%) and (1. Reddy’s Labs (up by 24.85%).

Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). However. HDFC MF retained second position with the average AUM of Rs 57. 2009 Bonus/Split/Rights News for March 2009 Company Name Chemplast Sanmar Ltd.754.01% in its AUM to Rs 47. The other mutual funds.81% in March 2009 over February 2009.962.670 crore in February 2009. while Tata MF recorded the highest outflow of Rs 2. Mutual fund industry has reported a decline in Assets Under Management (AUM) snapping a three month incline in previous months.89% in March 2009 over February 2009.to Rs.90% to 1.2/Top Key Highlights Assets Under Management (AUM) of mutual fund industry decreased by 17.17 crore in March 2009. 98.97%.23% stake in Finacial Technologies from Fidelity. several high net-worth individual investors bought the balance 2. its AUM has dropped by 0. Pudumjee Pulp & Paper Mills Ltd. 80. Alok Industries Ltd.962. HDFC Mutual Fund recorded the highest inflow in AUM of Rs 1.94 crore till March.304 crore.06 crore.372 crore. Apart from Reliance Mutual Fund. Net outflow in Mutual Funds was Rs.382. sold 8. The industry recorded the sharpest fall in assets since October last year as income and liquid funds collectively saw a net outflow of 99.50% to Rs 26. The decline in AUMs was primarily due to huge redemptions from banks and institutional investors in liquid and money market funds ahead of financial closure on March 31.65% in Financial Technologies. The shares were bought from the Fidelity group at Rs 502. Reliance Mutual fund continued to be in the first position to Rs 80.87 crore in March 2009.092.23 crore and SBI MF also plunged 4.300 crore compared with Rs 5. Reliance MF buys 5. Reliance Mutual Fund retained its top positions with AUM of Rs.132. The deal values Financial Technologies at Rs 2.94 crore in its AUM in March 2009.956.45 crore a rise of 1.269. the promoter of India’s largest commodity exchange.68 crore. The AUM has decreased by 17. which held 10.10/.96% to Rs 4.17. Birla Sun Life MF has recorded a drop of 3. Religare Mutual Fund followed it by posting a rise of 11.FIIs Net Investment in Last 12 Months * Till April 09. Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund has topped among others by recording AUM growth of 30. in terms of AUM included UTI MF recording a fall of 0.05% in its AUM.80 crore.23% stake in Financial Technologies.20% of it in a block deal for Rs 188.50 crore with a fall of 3.08.92% compared with the month of February 2009 followed by ICICI Mutual Fund with an AUM of Rs 51.96% to Rs 4.96% to Rs 48.01 lakh crore in March 2009. Fidelity. Reliance-Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group company Reliance Mutual Fund bought 5. Announcement Right Right Split Ex Date 17/03/2009 18/03/2009 23/03/2009 Remarks Right issue in the ratio of 2:3 at a price of Rs 4 per share Right issue in the ratio of 83:40 at a price of Re 1 per share Stock split from Rs.50 per share.17. Assets under management as on March 31.300 crore for March over February. 2009 . Asset wise.432.697 crore.096.

15 4.47 Escorts Liquid Plan 9.Assets under management Funds with three year return Type Equity Diversified Scheme ELSS Balanced Fund Debt Funds Liquid Funds Scheme Reliance Regular Savings Fund .Variable Pricing Option 9.Plan A ICICI Prudential Liquid Plan .48 Balanced Fund Reliance Regular Savings Fund .06 3. 2009 .62 3.Growth Sahara Growth Fund Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund Sundaram BNP Paribas Taxsaver Birla Sun Life Balance Fund Reliance Regular Savings Fund .42 ELSS Taurus Libra Taxshield -27.25 Debt Funds ICICI Prudential Income Fund 18.39 -1.Growth Canara Robeco Income Scheme IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund.Growth -16.76 11.35 8.Institutional Escort Liquid Plan 3 Year Return % 6.33 8." Net Inflow/Outflow in Mutual Funds Type Net Mutual Fund inflow in Financial Market *Till 6th March.12 HSBC Tax Saver Equity Fund -27.82 Liquid Funds Sahara Liquid Fund .07 Equity Diversified Scheme Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus -21. Funds with one year return Scheme 1 Year Return % UTI Dividend Yield Fund -19.66 Canara Rebeco Income Scheme 28.32 "Past performance is not indicative of future performance and may or may not be sustained.05 12.12 -1.89 Birla Sun Life Balance Fund -9.25 "Past performance is not indicative of future performance and may or may not be sustained.

Average Market Cost of Carry Date CoC (%) 6-Mar -2.44. Nifty April 2009 futures were trading at discount of 0. The total number of contracts for the month of March stood at 6.18.80%.57.95. it decreased a little to stand at 1.16 27-Mar 4.39.753 935 64 29 244 168 7. Fertilisers and Construction witnessed lowest rollover of 58. Automobile & Auto Ancillaries. 75.576 contracts.50 points with the spot closing of 3. 57.90%.72 level. The marketwide rollover was seen at 77%. Shipping.06 13-Mar 5. Telecommunication (services).25.61 crore during the month. 75.996. Sugar.549 189 5. though in the last week. Power.12.417 611 6 76 47 6. The total turnover in F&O segment for the month of March stood at Rs 10. 57. FIIs remained net buyers to the tune of Rs 5.49 crore as against Rs 7. There was increase in the ratio during the month.996.17 .762 1.31%. 76.991 482 547 -23 -168 -121 -98. which is in line with the three-month average rollover of 76%.28 crore in the month of February showing increase of 8%.196 Net Inflow/Outflow -62. Electrical Equipment.31% respectively. there was 39% spur in the average daily turnover to the amount of Rs 51.697 Top Key Highlights Market wide rollover stood at 77% while Nifty alone witnessed rollover of 70%. in Crore) Type Income Growth Balanced Liquid/Money market Gilt ELSS Gold ETF Other ETF Fund of Fund Investing Overseas Cumulative Sales 1. However. Average daily turnover in F&O segment stood at Rs 51.30.37 level.370. On the day of expiry. Further.Sales / Redemptions in Mutual Fund Schemes Fund Flow (Rs.69. 57.19.54% and 74.54 20-Mar 6.381 -3 -39 -36. On the day of expiry. Steel and Media & Entertainment witnessed highest rollover of 82. Sector wise.552 228 5.45. Nifty witnessed rollover of 70% lower than the last three-month average of 77%.493. and 52.90%.93%.223 1.54%. The options’ open interest remained mixed and the strong moves invited fresh accumulation in call options as well as short positions among put options.07%.842 1. The Put-Call ratio of open interest at the start of March series stood at 1.337.06.48 2-Apr 4.17 crore.77% respectively.807 while for the month of February there were 5.52 crore in March.52 crore in the month of March from last month’s figure of Rs 37.930.08.082.499 Redemption 1. an increase of 39% from last month.

48 -503.059. Key Highlights Net traded value in the Wholesale Debt Market jumped 14. In the second week of the month.16 932. However. equities turned attractive after a steep fall which pushed them into the oversold zone.368.95 5. The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained active in the month of March.100-3. they turned out to be net buyers amounting to Rs 5. The economic data released in various parts of the globe also indicated that stimulus packages announced by governments were working towards providing a soft landing for the global economy. it was evident that markets were strengthening and the data of March 30.61 Global stock markets witnessed a spectacular rally due to broad-based buying across the globe after investors were of the view that the pace of the global slowdown might be receding.54%. indicating closure of shorts and fresh addition of long positions. 6.248.85 Total 85. and manufacturing data in China boosted sentiments in global equity markets. confirmed that they will go strong in the near future. The call money rate remained flat throughout the month due to surplus liquidity in the market. stood at Rs 46.13 4. Moreover.21 Stock Options 1.420. Business Growth in the WDM Segment . a key indicator of leveraged positions in the derivatives market.564. FII’s net position has increased by 230% from last month’s figure of Rs 1. Overall. Indicators like pending home sales and consumer confidence levels in the US. Energy.26 Stock Futures 29.35 Source: SEBI (March.308.90 80. From March 13. Indian stock markets too rallied sharply due to heavy buying interest across the board. the OI was at Rs 50. In the last week of the month.585.13 25.55 24.The market open interest (OI).337.615. banking and construction stocks can be short from higher Top levels.61 crore for the entire month.150.472. Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 3.603 crore during first week of March and the market cost of carry (CoC) was negative 2. on the back of 12.03 Index Options 24.518.400 in the short term.96 crore. home prices in the UK.48%. During the month. metals and technology stocks can be considered for assuming long positions whereas FMCG.337.74 Net 1.134.998 crore while CoC was 4.59% addition in open interest. Corporate Bonds performed better than the Government Securities during the financial year ended 2008-09.081. In total. market CoC turned to positive 5.57% in March as compared to February.95 631.30 crore. net investment by FIIs in the debt market remained negative to Rs. 2009) Sell 29.06%. Cumulative FII turnover in F&O Segment (Rs crore) Product Buy Index Futures 30.

2.784. which offered a brief respite to the market but an overall lack of clarity existed over the aspects. the net traded value surged 14. Bond yields remained flat as worries intensified over the increased government borrowing adding to the already weak sentiment. 27.67% respectively.948. The debt market failed to recover due to the uncertainty in the market over RBI’s next course of action and the huge bond supply in months to come. Call Rates The call money rate remained steady on lower demand for funds as most banks had sufficient funds to meet reserve requirements and inflow through government spending helped keep liquidity in surplus. Also. .47 crore and the average daily trade value of the segment is Rs. During the month. The graph below depicts spread between YTMs of these top traded securities.987. 5.39% CG2011) started the month with YTM of 5. 49.205.589.81% during the month. Average trade size on WDM segment is Rs. their average YTM was 5. Corporate bond activity remained range-bound and performed better than G-Secs.59% in the last week of the month.48% CG2009 and 6.39% CG2011 generated the highest volume for the month covering a total traded volume of Rs. The security (9.39%.58 crore and numbers of trades were 1.73 crore.08% and reached its highest 4. India plans to sell a record Rs 48. Top Traded Securities 9. The RBI later announced that it would buy bonds through open market operations (OMOs) ensuring least disruption in the trading activity.57% from last month’s figure of Rs.The net traded value in the WDM for the month is Rs.16% and 5. before ending with an average yield of 5.47 crore. triggering profit booking and maintaining pressure on sentiment. less pressure was seen on call rates at the end of the financial year.65% CG2009 settled down for the second and third position respectively. Call rates at the first day of the month was 4. 42. according to its borrowing calendar.11%. The yield remained in the range of 5-5.76 crore.000 crore of debt a month through June to finance its stimulus spending. During the month. LAF in the month of March 2009 * Week ending each Saturday of the month. 2.

The 10-yr G-sec yields climbed up by almost 175 bps since the start of this calendar year on concerns of deteriorating fiscal situation and resultant glut of supplies in government securities.344.44.During the month.801. banks borrowed from RBI under repo agreement an aggregate amount of Rs. The recent rally in equities across the globe did throw a glimmer of hope but sustainability of the rally is still in question. within a span of 8-10 months.64% (of net borrowing) in this month.org.26% y-o-y). held in its reserves also increased by USD 5.597 mn.30 as compared to Rs. but rates at longer end may remain under pressure owing to heavy supply of government securities and uncertainty about RBI actions to manage government borrowing.04. Despite RBI taking various measures.478.30 15. Macro factors like the dismal IIP and low inflation rate (0. Pound Sterling and JPY).420. 687.00 In the month of March 2009. The credit growth slowed dramatically owing to the economic slowdown. Monthly changes in key currencies vs. reserves in gold fell by USD 169 mn at USD 9. RBI auctioned Rs. 3. Crore) 39. volatility persisted.882 mn (m-o-m) to stand at USD 2. which people have started comparing to the Depression Era. Exports continued to decline on the back of falling demand globally. Crore) 22.549. while Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) remained unchanged at USD 1 mn.882 3171 Gold 9577 -169 Special Drawing Rights 1 0 Reserves position in the IMF 985 169 4 Source: www. Government of India (GOI) has planned to borrow Rs. 15. During the month. Economic scenario remained grim the world over while central banks have been bending backwards as never before.80 crore in February 2009.00 45. During the same period. The journey since then has been nothing short of a high-speed rollercoaster ride. 7.87%. 55.in India’s total foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 5.642.20 48. RBI absorbed Rs. Net investment by MFs in the debt market was up to Rs.549. The foreign currency assets expressed in USD terms (including the effect of appreciation or depreciation of the other currencies such as the Euro.420. Outlook The year 2008 started with a softening bias of yields. Net FIIs & MFs investment in Debt Market Particulars Mutual Funds FIIs Total Purchases (Rs. on the rate front.00 3.30 crore in the debt market as compared to Rs.472.882 3175 Foreign Currency 244597 5. 45.80 70. It has completed around 70.601.655 crore. the reserve position with IMF inclined by USD 169 mn (m-o-m) to stand at USD 985 mn. which quickly got shunned with RBI's quarterly policy review.577 mn.80 crore of 364 T-Bills. 2009 End-March 2008 Total Foreign Exchange Reserves 255160 5.60 Sales (Rs.in . Government Borrowing Program in 2008-09 Particulars Budgeted Borrowings Gross Borrowing Completed Dated Securities 364 Day T-Bills % Completed Net Borrowing till date Rs. rattling the nerves of even the savviest of the investors. Going forward.19. 2009 Feb 27. 2.64 2.60 Net Investment (Rs. The 10-year G-sec yield touched a high of 9.90 crore in January 2009. to tackle the current downturn. 2009. However.19. net investment by FIIs turned negative to Rs. supported bonds. 17. However.000.48% and an intra-day low of 4.260 crore of funds from market through reverse repo.30 11.30 -6.669.rbi.021.000 crore of dated securities and Rs.549.61. it has been unable to arrest the northward movement of the yields.18 In the financial year 2008-09.61. Crore) 17. Trends in GDP by expenditure are showing significant deceleration in private consumption and in fixed capital formation. For the same week.160 mn mainly due to a rise in foreign currency at the end of the month of March.472 crore.478.402. 16.30 37.323.882 mn to stand at USD 2.rbi.40 8.org.25. 2. Top Foreign Exchange Reserves in USD mn Variation over As on April 03. INR Particulars Source: www. Crore 3. it is expected that short-term rates will drop.

actionforex.00 3.50 0.6 the previous month. and the greenback's weakness against other major currencies also helped the domestic currency strengthen. The British economy contracted by 1.42 Source: www.54 -0.25 0.50 0.87 % Change 6 Months 8.6 in the euro area.50 1.25 0.9 to 60. driven by the marked decline in manufacturing output.in % Change in Key currencies Vs. Interest Rates in various countries Central Banks Reserve Bank of New Zealand Reserve Bank of Australia Bank of England European Central Bank Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank Federal Reserve (USA) Bank of Japan FOREIGN CURRENCIES USD Confidence surrounding the global economy remained extremely fragile during first month of the week with brief spells of optimism unable to gain any significant traction. INR Currencies USD EURO JPY As on March 31.28 3. INR pared some of its gains as month-end demand for the US unit from importers and the dollar's gains against other Asian units as investors weighed prospects of a US economic recovery after Washington unveiled a plan to unclog the banking system of bad debt.in INR/USD INR declined marginally by 0.25 1. the dollar regained defensive support and tested 2009 highs beyond 1. At the end of the month.2 in March from -34.38 1 Month 0.25 0.06 3 Months 5.com Interest Rates (%) As on March.4% while the New York Empire index also weakened further to a record low of -38.96 29.8 in February.46 17. Further. Japan’s current-account surplus narrowed 55.10 . The pending US home sales index rose 2. it recovered sharply as the firm equity markets and a weak dollar overseas amid fresh capital inflows helped the INR rise.08 -3.1 million. The sentiment indicator declined from 60. Interest Rates (%) As on February. weak data. surprising economists who were expecting a flat reading and Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 36. EU and euro-zone business and consumer confidence dropped again in March to the lowest level in 24 year economic.48 51. the most since 1980. At the end The US dollar secured a net recovery against the European currencies . Output of the production industries fell 4.00 2. INR started the month on a weak note and dropped to a record low beyond 52 per dollar as falling stocks.43 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The US ISM manufacturing index edged stronger to 35.31 3.4 in the EU and from 65.00 0.1% in February.3 to 64.16 -1.3 in March from 35.org.43% during the month of March 2009.37 1 Year 27.25 against the Euro before weakening back towards 1.7 previously.95 67.2009 50. Latest Update: The unemployment rate in the world's largest economy the US touched a 26-year-high of 8. US currency then weakened very sharply after the Fed meeting with the largest recorded daily decline against the Euro.8 in February from 35.25 0. In this environment.00 1.8% in the previous quarter. versus forecasts for a rise to 36.47 6.6% to USD 11 bn from a year earlier in February as the global recession caused exports to plunge an unprecedented 50.Source: www. The US manufacturing data was generally depressed as production declined by a further 1.51 0. Dollar selling by banks and exporters. However.org.50 3.4%. pushing the total number of job losses since the recession began in December 2007 to 5.27.5% compared with a fall of 1. bearish global markets and an arbitrage play with offshore derivatives drained demand despite suspected central bank intervention.The Treasury announced over the weekend plans to use USD 75-100bn of TARP funds in combination with private capital to boost the potential for troubled assets to be cleared.50 0.rbi.5% in March.10 Source: www.rbi.

137.80 and lowest of Rs. The Euro-zone economic data was generally weaker than expected except The German ZEW index which edged higher to -3.699. it pared some of gains at the end of the month after release of U. Monthly Change in Crude Prices per Barrel Crude Prices 28-Feb-09 31-Mar-09 %Change International Crude Oil (USD per barrel) 44.S.87 Domestic Crude Oil (Rs per barrel) 2. stronger than expected housing report of US from the Commerce Department helped boost prices. and reached to 3.49 with a huge gain of 12.0 M barrels 3.8 and this was the highest reading for 18 months. International Brent crude price gained by 3. Earlier. A lack of confidence in the Euro area was offset by severe difficulties in other major currencies The ECB cut interest rates by a further 0. The rise was due to the drop in demand for petroleum products.2 mn barrels per day.42% (MoM). the nation now has 1. 2. OPEC has promised to slash its production by 4. 2.7 M barrels 2. As per U.enough to fuel roughly 44 mn cars for a year. which was much more than what was expected by analysts.42 Crude oil inventory mounded continuously for the first three weeks.6 mn in the week ended March 20.49 12. In addition.87% (MoM).05 bn barrels of oil in storage .3 mn barrels in the third week. government its crude storage facilities were brimming with more oil than they've had in 16 years. Crude oil inventories (weekly change) For week 6 Mar’09 13 Mar’09 20 Mar’09 27 Mar’09 Source: Bloomberg Released on 11 Mar’09 18 Mar’09 25 Mar’09 01 Apr’09 Change 0. Crude oil started the month on a subdued note after preliminary fourth quarter GDP report showed that the US economy contracted more than expected. crude oil stockpile touched 16 years high. However.8 M barrels . U. A stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities. such as crude oil which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa. crude oil inventories rose by 3. JPY JPY weakened against major currencies as it attracted selling pressure due to a lack of confidence in the Japanese economy over the month while there were increased fears over the political situation with a new investigation into alleged illegal party funding. However.41 46. especially with underlying fears over the European banking sector.3 mn barrels to 356. Combined with the strategic petroleum reserve.496. Top Crude Oil Key Highlights Domestic crude price jumped 12.50%. Confidence in Eastern European economies remained weak which also continued to have a negative influence on the Euro.S. The Japanese industrial data remained extremely weak with the monthly Tankan index weakening to a record low of -78 in March from -74 the previous month. Prices also fell due to the strong dollar. Crude oil prices jumped during mid of the month and crossed the mark of USD 50 per barrel in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to pump USD 1 tn into the American financial system to revive lending and bolster economic growth. However. domestic crude oil prices touched it’s highest of Rs. inventories report showed that stockpiles were at 16 year highs.496. The non-manufacturing sector improved marginally while the Bank of Japan forecast that the economic deterioration would slow as inventories started to come under control. 2. as traders indulged in enlarging their positions influenced by a firming global trend.42% over the last month closing.S. Domestic crude oil prices also surged during the month. Crude oil prices jumped in international markets supported by the decline in US dollar and the recovery in the global equities markets. Sources: .5 in March from -5.13 3. according to the Energy Information Administration. During the month.97 before closing at Rs.3 M barrels 2.Ncdex & EIA Moving on the same line.S.50% record low 1.75 2. The Euro surged during the month as Confidence in other currencies weakened and pushed highs to Euro.EURO The Euro strengthened against the USD over the month. The EIA report showed U.220.

133.50 -3.15 trillion dollar in bonds to lower borrowing costs. revive in global equity markets and crude oil prices might force investors to shift from gold to other investment avenues. it rebounded during mid of the month after the Federal Reserve said it will buy 1. reviving investor's concern that inflation will accelerate.00 916.30 Outlook Gold prices might fall in near term as the G-20 came out with the decision that the International Monetary Fund should sell gold from its reserve to stimulate the world economy.73% (MoM). Gold Key Highlights International gold prices decreased by 3. investors continued to move away from the safe-haven asset after an equity rally spurred by the U. in domestic markets.332. moving on the same line as a steep rise in global equity markets eroded demand for the precious metal besides negligible buying in the physical markets due to off-marriage season. India imported no gold for the second month in a row in March 2009. as retailers are staying away from making fresh buying at these levels. The prices might dip further by June once the supply of the precious metal rises due to sale by the IMF. However. Weakening trend in the overseas market mainly prevailed on hopes that the global economy will revive soon following the G-20 leaders meeting. gold prices fall due to sustained selling was witnessed by stockiest influenced.Outlook Crude oil prices expected to rise to higher level once global economic growth return to its trend level. Monthly change in Gold prices Gold Prices 31-Feb-09 31-Mar-09 %Change London pm fix (USD/oz) 952. Global triggers. upcoming marriage season might become the reason for some gain in prices. However. In the medium term USD 70-90 per barrel is the equilibrium level at which oil will trade and that current depressed price will not sustain. The prices are bound to come down to USD 855.3 tonnes. higher prices pulled down imports of gold in the country. such as the G-20 summit. plan to revive the banking system. Confidence level has increased in the markets. Recovery in the global equities markets after G-20 agreeing to an extra USD 1. The IMF can sell up to 403.73 Mumbai (Rs/10gms) 15.S. Further. Top . Gold snapped its last month’s rally as surge in equity markets prompted some investors to ditch gold and buy shares. Fresh jewellery demand has been quite dull with incremental demand being met through refining of high quantity of scrap sales that has been entering the physical markets over the last two months.30% (MoM). showing a positive sign of recovery in global economy in near term.00 -1. Further. could help revive the economy the world over. Domestic gold prices fell marginally by 1. Further. Source:Ncdex & Kitco In domestic markets.1 tn of stimulus to the international economy by the end of 2010. Experts feel that the G20 move and the IMF sale will cause around 5% slump in gold prices before the end of April 2009. At the end of the month. which is the equivalent of one-eighth of its holdings.50 15.

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of this report. It is for the general information of clients of Indiabulls Securities Limited. The Report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or person(s) in any form. This report is based upon information that we consider reliable. which is in violation of rules and regulations of National Stock Exchange or Bombay Stock Exchange. Indiabulls Securities Limited (ISL) and any/all of its group companies or directors or employees reserves its right to suspend the publication of this Report and are not under any obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. and it should not be relied upon as such. or needs of individual clients. The information given herein should be treated as only factor. The value of. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Indiabulls Securities Limited prior written consent. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. associates. This material is for the general information of the authorized recipient. and income from investments may vary because of changes in the macro and micro economic conditions. and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject stock and no part of his or her compensation was. directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be considered as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any stock or derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. financial situations. In addition. Indiabulls Securities Limited recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies. but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Indiabulls Securities Limited shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report. directors or employees shall in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any error in the information contained in this report. Top . Past performance is not a guide for future performance. while making investment decision. You are advised to independently evaluate the investments and strategies discussed herein and also seek the advice of your financial adviser. Any opinions expressed here in reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. ISL has no obligation to continue to publish reports on all the stocks currently under its coverage or to notify you in the event it terminates its coverage. is or will be.This report is not for public distribution and is only for private circulation and use. Neither Indiabulls Securities Limited nor any of its affiliates.