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To: From: Date: Re:

Interested Parties Mike Gehrke June 27, 2012 Recent New Hampshire Polling Results

The results of our recent poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic Gubernatorial primary voters show the race tied. Both Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan are largely unknown to Democratic primary voters but on several key issues, Cilley is on the side of a majority of Democrats and independents likely to vote in the primary. In addition, Cilley’s standing among moderates and independents in this poll confirms the finding of every public poll released so far that Cilley is just as strong in a general election as Maggie Hassan. NH Gubernatorial Primary is Tied Cilley and Hassan start out the race with low, but roughly equal name ID – 34% of Democratic primary voters know enough to rate Hassan, while 29% know enough to rate Cilley. Both are personally popular among voters who know them (Cilley’s net favorable rating is +25% while Hassan’s is +24%). Name Identification
All

Maggie Hassan Jackie Cilley

34% 29%

When asked who they would vote for if the primary election were held today, 20% of likely Democratic primary voters choose Hassan, 20% choose Cilley, 10% say they would vote for Bill Kennedy and 50% are undecided. If the September 2012 Democratic primary election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were ... for whom would you vote?
All Likely Primary Voters Know Both Cilley & Hassan

Difference
Jackie Cilley Maggie Hassan Bill Kennedy Don’t know

0

+7

20% 20% 10% 50%

46% 39% 5% 10%

Cilley Leads Among Voters Who Know Both Cilley and Hassan Among voters who know both candidates. Cilley holds a 46%-39% lead. This is significant given the head start Hassan has had both in forming her campaign and spending money – Since Hassan opened her campaign in October, she has spent nearly $300,000 – more than four times as much as Cilley has. However, Hassan’s name ID is only slightly higher than Cilley’s and she trails by 7% among voters who know them both. Cilley on Right Side of Tax Issues For Democratic Primary There is a clear consensus among voters on a constitutional amendment prohibiting an income tax in the future: Just 26% say they support such an amendment while 69% say they are opposed. In addition, a majority of Democratic primary voters are opposed to having gubernatorial candidates take a pledge to
Cilley for New Hampshire Governor – June 2012

oppose sales and income taxes: 53% say knowing that a candidate has taken the pledge makes them less likely to support that candidate (including 25% of voters who say they are much less likely to vote for a pledge supporter). Just 39% say they are more likely to vote for a pledge supporter. Self-identified Democrats are especially opposed to the pledge and 62% say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who takes the pledge. Opinion on Tax Issues
Constitutional Amendment Vote for Tax Pledge Candidate

+43
Support Oppose 26% 69% More Likely Less Likely

+14
39% 53%

Neither Hassan nor Cilley has said they support an income tax, and both say they oppose the constitutional income tax ban. However, Cilley has refused to take the pledge while Hassan initially opposed the pledge as a member of the state Senate, but reversed course and signed the pledge when she announced her candidacy for Governor. Cilley Strongest Among Women and Independents; Strongest Against Lamontagne Cilley’s strengths are among the independent and moderate Democratic primary voters – many of the same voters a candidate will need to appeal to in a general election. Among Self-described Independents, Cilley leads by 6% (20% Cilley, 14% Hassan, 5% Kennedy). Cilley also leads by 5% among women (21% Cilley, 16% Hassan). This underlines findings of the most recent public polls – that Cilley runs stronger against Ovide Lamontagne than Hassan does. If the September 2012 Democratic primary election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were ... for whom would you vote?
Women Independents

Difference
Jackie Cilley Maggie Hassan Bill Kennedy Don’t know

+5
21% 16% 6% 57%

+7
20% 14% 5% 61%

If the November 2012 election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were ... for whom would you vote?
PPP May 2012 Rasmussen June 2012

Difference
Jackie Cilley Ovide Lamontagne

0
38% 38%

-2
39% 41%

Difference

-1

-6

Maggie Hassan Ovide Lamontagne

39% 40%

36% 42%

This memo covers the results of our research: 400 interviews with likely 2012 Democratic primary election voters. The interviews were conducted June 11-13, 2012. The margin of error is ±4.90%. BSG’s clients include President Barack Obama, Senator Jeff Merkley (OR), Senator Jim Webb (VA), Governor Tim Kaine (VA), and Congresswoman Mazie Hirono (HI-2nd). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work helping turn Virginia from Red to Purple.
Cilley for New Hampshire Governor – June 2012