July 20, 2012

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

started week
12776.33 2903.03 799.03 1356.5

Thursday Close
12943.4 2965.9 802.17 1376.51

4 day change
167.07 62.87 3.14 20.01

4 day change %
1.31% 2.17% 0.39% 1.48%

ytd
5.94% 13.85% 8.27% 9.46%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 68.04% 31.96% 32.68% 11.09%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.48% 0.42% 0.66% -0.51% 0.24% -0.67% 0.28% -0.26% -0.56% -0.09% -0.32% 0.30% 0.35% -0.20% -0.29% -0.30%

MTD
0.87% -1.52% -0.38% -1.31% -3.12% 1.66% 5.25% -1.55% 1.14% 0.71% 2.69% 1.49% 2.81% 3.11% 2.20% 2.45%

YTD
1.32% -0.13% -3.51% 5.55% 3.75% 84.03% 13.83% 8.78% 15.64% 1.07% 16.60% 9.60% -7.81% 11.71% 7.98% 1.30%

Valuation
1.63% overvalued 17.07% undervalued 16.62% undervalued 2.68% undervalued 2.90% undervalued 8.52% undervalued 5.48% undervalued 10.94% overvalued 4.62% overvalued 4.45% undervalued 8.12% overvalued 0.16% undervalued 8.67% undervalued 5.43% overvalued 2.58% undervalued 12.55% overvalued

Last 12-M Return

-12.97% -23.82% -37.95% -6.41% -15.23% -4.10% -6.81% -6.51% -0.17% -16.07% -9.68% -8.52% -26.99% 0.37% -16.22% -4.57%

P/E Ratio
31.08 17.17 23.64 24.3 39.69 55.94 28.82 19.22 23.49 26.08 39.08 15.72 31.07 29.55 23.77 19.15

Sector TalkUtilities
Below, we present the latest data on leading Utilities Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SHW KBR FWLT FLR CBI

Name
SHERWIN WILLIAM KBR INC FOSTER WHELR AG FLUOR CORP-NEW CHICAGO BRIDGE

Mkt Price
128.85 23.38 15.61 46.09 36.26

Valuation(%)
10.82 -41.02 -55.12 -27.65 -24.09

Last 12-M Retn(%)

56.37 -36.03 -42.76 -27.33 -4.45

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SHW URI WY CBI WOSYY

Name
SHERWIN WILLIAM UTD RENTALS INC WEYERHAEUSER CO CHICAGO BRIDGE WOLSELEY -ADR

Mkt Price
128.85 33.53 22.78 36.26 3.63

Valuation(%)
10.82 -1.16 -15.01 -24.09 n/a

Last 12-M Retn(%)

56.37 36.19 7.45 -4.45 22.6

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
CBI URI THO KBR ICA

Name
CHICAGO BRIDGE UTD RENTALS INC THOR INDS INC KBR INC EMPRESAS ICA

Mkt Price
36.26 33.53 27.17 23.38 7.09

Valuation(%)
-24.09 -1.16 -28.92 -41.02 -75

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-4.45 36.19 0 -36.03 -18.32

Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
TPC LEN MTH IBI HW

Name
TUTOR PERINI CP LENNAR CORP -A MERITAGE HOMES INTERLINE BRAND HEADWATERS INC

Mkt Price
12.78 31.06 35.44 25.23 5.77

Valuation(%)
300 27.12 24.88 18.33 15.57

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-27.55 73.33 53.29 40.17 89.8

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Free Report Download for Subscribers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.
This week's free download is our report on Yahoo! (YHOO). Yahoo! Inc. is a global Internet communications, commerce and media company that offers a comprehensive branded network of services. As one of the first online navigational guides to the World Wide Web, Yahoo! is one of the leading guides in terms of traffic, advertising, and household and business user reach. The company also provides online business and enterprise services designed to enhance the productivity and Web presence of Yahoo!'s clients.

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What's HotFDIC Report Released

ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is an expert on the US Banking System and uses the health of the system as a leading economic indicator. He distills his thoughts on the banking system in our FDIC Report. The latest update of the report is now available. In his summary of the report he notes the following: There have been some positive data releases recently to suggest a slow but steady improving for the housing market--particularly for the home builders. The PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX) is the proof of the pudding with this index breaking out above the long-term down trend that goes back to the highs of July 2005, January and April 2006, and February 2007. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose a point in June to 29. This was the highest reading since May of 2007, but was still well below 50. This means that the home builders view the activities in the market for new single family homes as improving, but still well below normal. The latest release of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed price stability in April after setting cycle lows for the 20-City Composite in March. The index showed that home prices rose by 1.3% in April versus March, but were down 1.9% year over year. Overall home prices declined 34.1% from the June / July 2006 bubble highs to the lows set in March 2012. Since the year 2000 the 20-City Composite is still up 35.8%, and would have to decline by another 26.4% to return to those levels. Despite this positive news, the Federal Reserve still describes the housing market as depressed. Record low mortgage rates have not helped the housing market, as credit remains difficult to get in a housing market flooded with distressed sales. The FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile for the first quarter of 2012 showed that Other Real Estate Owned (OREO) remained elevated at $44.8 billion, after peaking at $53.3 billion in the third quarter of 2010. If the Fed decides on a QE3, it will only fuel commodity speculation.

Our latest ValuEngine FDIC Report is now posted. The report contains loan exposure and/or ValuEngine datapoints on valuation, forecast, and ratings for all of the institutions on our List of Problem Banks. Subscribers can download it HERE. Others interested in the report may find out more on our website by clicking the image below.

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.484) Monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value level are 1.568, 1.853, 1.869 and 2.502 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.481 and 1.454, my semiannual risky level at 1.389. The continued flight to quality has this yield near its all time low set on June 1st at 1.439. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1581.1) My annual value level is $1388.4 with daily, annual and monthly pivots at $1571.0, $1575.8 and $1578.3, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1596.6, $1643.3, $1702.5 and $1805.8. The 50-day / 200-day SMAs: $1587.8 / $1659.3. My annual pivot at $1575.8 continues to be the line in the sand between those betting that the gold bubble will re-inflate and those that expect weakness to my annual value level at $1388.4.

Nymex Crude Oil ($92.30) Weekly and semiannual value levels are $79.08 and $76.71 with the October 4th low at $74.95, a daily pivot at $90.91, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $100.47, $103.58 and $107.63. Another annual risky level is $117.00. The Euro (1.2280) Daily, monthly, weekly and semiannual value levels are 1.2208, 1.2168, 1.2134 and 1.1078 with semiannual, annual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2917, 1.4239 and 1.4583. Major Indices Daily Dow: (12,943) Daily, annual and semiannual value levels are 12,805, 12,312 and 10,738 with a weekly pivot at 12,907, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 13,473, 14,032 and 14,493. S&P 500 (1376.5) Annual, daily and semiannual value levels are 1363.2, 1362.6 and 1059.7 with a weekly pivot at weekly pivot at 1378.1, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1418.6, 1539.8 and 1562.9. NASDAQ (2966) Daily, annual and semiannual value levels are 2901, 2698 and 2527 with a weekly pivot at 2976, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 3058, 3232 and 3348. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2656) Annual, daily, annual and semiannual value levels are 2603, 2588, 2300 and 2239 with a weekly pivot at 2655, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 2729 and 2991. Dow Transports (5187) Daily and semiannual value levels are 5099, 4449 and 4129 with weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 5353, 5422, 5861, 6111 and 6044. The all time high is 5627.85 set on July 11, 2011. Russell 2000 (802.17 Daily and semiannual value levels are 791.54 and 686.25 with weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 814.37, 834.07, 836.15 and 933.42. The all time high is 868.57 set on May 2, 2011. The SOX (371.34) Daily and semiannual value levels are 349.55 and 326.30 with weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 374.93, 405.11 and 450.28. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Newsletters, Articles and Other Research Pieces Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Get short, timely messages from ValuEngine Inc Daily Bulletin PDFs, Weekly Newsletter PDFs, and PDF Research Reports