Thayer Consultancy

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Background Brief: Vietnam: Public Protests in the Past and Today Carlyle A. Thayer July 26, 2012

[client name deleted] Q1. Public protests in Vietnam were rare in the 1990s. Why have they become more frequent in the last decade? ANSWER: I would make a distinction between public protests over local issues such as land and treatment by local officials and political protests. The former have been an enduring fact of life in Vietnam since the late 1980s. Peasants have staged protests in their local districts and/or have assembled outside of the offices of the National Assembly in Ho Chi Minh City. In 1997 there was a massive peasant protest in Thai Binh province involving over 10,000 persons. Public political protests are a product of the mobile phone and internet era. They are a product of globalization where protests in other countries, or protests in Vietnam that are reported in the foreign media become known in Vietnam. New technology gives publicity to protests. One protest spurs another. Two other factors facilitating public protest are the growth of Vietnams economy and travel abroad, including education. People are better educated and have resources to spend time in political activities. Q2 Hanoi reportedly paid students to take part in a protest against the US over the Iraq war in 2003. What was the thinking behind this compared to the first anti-China rally in 2007? ANSWER: I have no information about paying for public protests in 2003. Was this to compensate people for loss of income? The first anti-China rally in December 2007 was spontaneous. Students and youths networked using mobile phones and text messages. The Iraq war was distant and did not involve Vietnam directly. In 2007 the issue was the announcement that China had raised the level of government and created SanSha as an administrative unit with responsibility over the Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Bank and Spratly Islands. The protestors felt outraged at Chinas affront to national sovereignty. Q3. Why do you think the Vietnamese state has allowed the latest anti-China protests but suppressed recent protests by Catholics and land rights campaigners? ANSWER: The communist regime confiscated Catholic land in the 1950s and again after reunification. The government has closed the door to any review of these decisions including compensation. In recent years the government argues it has offered alternate public land for religious services. Catholic demonstrations are a direct political assault on

2 the legitimacy of Vietnams one party regime. Land issues also strike at the nexus of political and economic power of local officials. The loyalty of the Catholic community has always been questioned. Land rights activists attempt to organize aggrieved peasants and form associations the regime views as illegal and a challenge to its mass organisations. The anti-China protests do not involve any challenge to economic power. They are largely patriotic displays of nationalism. They reflect views widely held among the elite. But they do represent a challenge to nationalism as one of the basis of regime legitimacy. To the extent that anti-China protests are an indictment of the central governments failure to stand up to China, they are viewed as a challenge. Many of the demonstrators in Hanoi come from well connected families. Q4. Academics say politics in Vietnam is driven by the belief that those in power have a higher moral capacity than the everyman and are therefore trustworthy. How much do you think this influences official reactions to public protests? ANSWER: Vietnamese political culture includes remnants of Confucian values. Government officials are supposed to uphold high moral standards and serve the collective rather than the individual. This is an ideal type that has been undermined by perceptions of extensive corruption by government officials. I would say there is a disconnect between how the public views government officials and how government officials view themselves. Government officials generally have a self-serving view of themselves. For example, political reformers inside the system often share similar views with those outside the system. But there is little likelihood the two would form a coalition. Those inside the system are aghast at those outside the system for the temerity of advocating political reform. Political reform is the prerogative of the elite those to the manor born not those on the outside. They are viewed as pursuing individual and personal interests. Q5. Why do you think the government has allowed the anti-China protests to continue this year? ANSWER: Chinas actions this year have been over the top. It suits the government to permit public displays of anti-China sentiment up to a point. In June last year China and Vietnam reached agreement to steer public opinion. This meant halting the anti-China protests in Vietnam. There is widespread and growing public support for the protests among the elite. Q6. IN an earlier assessment you wrote that one reason for the crackdown against bloggers is diplomacy with both China and the US. Are there any other reasons at play? ANSWER: Domestic politics and international relations are inextricably mixed. But when you leave the level of high politics to public protests, there are party and public security conservatives who see any manifestation of organised public protest as subversive. It is usually linked to peaceful evolution. But it is also linked to a degree of government frustration that despite the best efforts to intimidate and curtail demonstrations, they continue. In sum, public protest is viewed as a challenge to the authority of government officials. Government officials want to be in control. They are sensitive to the collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the colour revolutions and the Arab Spring.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Public Protests in the Past and Today, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 26, 2012.

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