This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
TO: DAVID ROUZER FOR CONGRESS CAMPAIGN TEAM ROB AUTRY/NICOLE McCLESKEY JULY 26, 2012 NORTH CAROLINA CD 7 SURVEY KEY FINDINGS FROM: DATE: RE:
This survey shows David Rouzer and Congressman Mike McIntyre in a statistical dead‐heat with almost 100 days to go. The bad news for McIntyre is voters here are fed up with Congress, are voting Republican at the top‐of‐the‐ticket, and less than half of voters are supporting the 16‐year incumbent against a well‐positioned challenger.
1. With almost 100 days to go, Congressman McIntyre finds himself well below 50% on the Congressional ballot and in a virtual tie with David Rouzer. Fully 44% of likely voters say they are backing McIntyre for Congress, while 40% are supporting Rouzer (15% undecided). Being below 50% is often referred to as “the danger zone” for incumbents, as undecided voters tend to break towards the challenger the closer we get to Election Day. Rouzer pulls ahead among high interest voters and those who are familiar with both candidates. Among the 69% of likely voters who say they are “extremely interested” in the elections (rate their interest as a “10” on a one‐to‐ten scale), Rouzer leads McIntyre 45% to 42%. And, among voters who have formed an opinion of both candidates, Rouzer enjoys a six‐point advantage (48% Rouzer – 42% McIntyre). Congressman McIntyre is also running into hurricane‐force headwinds at the top‐of‐the‐ ticket. Governor Romney leads President Obama by 17 points (53% Romney – 36% Obama) – as the President is noticeably underperforming what he got here in 2008 (42%). Needless to say, McIntyre’s support for Obama’s candidacy and policy positions aren’t exactly a recipe for electoral success in this new district. Finally, voters fed up with the job Congress is doing and are looking for change. Eight out of ten (81%) likely voters disapprove of the job Congress is doing, with 56% strongly disapproving. This is yet another piece of evidence that highlights why David’s message of changing Washington’s wasteful ways is resonating so well with voters in the district.
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of four hundred likely general election voters in North Carolina’s Seventh Congressional District. The survey was conducted July 22‐23, 2012. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.