Physical Gold: antidote against the ongoing global debt crisis

Author: Claudio Grass, Managing Director of Global Gold in Switzerland. Keywords: Economic Trends, Monetary History, Gold Standard, Fiat Money, Free Money, Austrian Economics, Debt Crisis, Inflation, Currency Devaluation, Central Banks, Gold Price, Gold Bull Market, Physical Gold, Paper Gold, Protect your Wealth, Investment Opportunities. Content: This paper reflects Global Gold’s belief in why today's economic and financial situation is different than other crises. That point of view is based on the principles of the "Austrian School of Economics.” You will read a summary of monetary history and gold’s role in it. The focus is to provide only facts. You will find evidence on the key role of precious metals in protecting your assets. You will also get tips on which investment opportunities to consider and how to evaluate different investment options. The paper should also awaken your interest in the Austrian School of Economics. Source: Video presentation recorded end of July 2012 in Switzerland ( view full version ). Support by GoldSilverWorlds

Table of contents
Introduction The macro-economic view Key insights from monetary history State of the Gold market Different ways how to invest in precious metals How Global Gold can help protect your future page 2 page 3 page 10 page 15 page 25 page 27

Preliminary notes
This paper reflects the view of myself and Global Gold, which are based on the theories of the Austrian School of Economics but also on the findings of certain personalities we very much respect. I consider the famous Swiss Private Banker Ferdinand Lips one of them. He is the writer of the most famous book “Gold Wars”. Furthermore, excellent information in relation to the Gold market is provided by a young and intelligent precious metals analyst in Austria named Ronald Stöfferle, who just released his 2012 Special Report “In Gold We Trust”.

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Introduction
I once read a book that started with the following sentence: “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Or as Goethe used to say: “Experience remains the best divining rod.” So one of the core principles of this document is to learn from history to avoid making the same mistakes again. The last centuries have been dominated by the Theories of John Maynard Keynes, which are based on centralized government structures as the hail of the world. Therefore I would like to ask you to forget for just a moment the teachings of Keynes in regards to his monetary theory. I hope you will approach this document with an open mind, think independently and draw your own logical conclusions from the facts. My economic view is based on the understanding and theory of the Austrian School of Economics with its important mentors Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich August von Hayek, and Murray Rothbard, to name just a few. Their view of life is mainly based on the fact that people may live in freedom and that only the implication of force over other people is forbidden. Moreover, people shall be allowed to decide freely and without any constraint what they select and accept as money. In today’s life of public central planning combined with increasingly radical interventions, this is a topic which is getting more and more important especially within the developed world – or let’s just say occidental world – where an accumulating, huge debt pile is already out of control. Let’s take a closer look at the major features, and respective differences, between the theory of Keynes and the Austrian School of Economics: John Maynard Keynes turned the world upside down with his argumentation that savings is not a premise for investments; by contrast, it is a burden for economics. His opinion was that wise and clever planners at a central switch point would know more and that they could correct macro economic imbalances by manipulating market signals. That’s why, in most cases, he saw an easing of lending as the only solution. This theory implies the existence of a wise government who has a large influence at every level of economics. Keynes was not very involved into the subject of “freedom”. As we can see, this system enables a massive centralization of power. In this context, Lord Acton stated it best over 150 years ago: “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely!” The Austrian School however stands for private ownership, free markets, healthy money, and a freethinking society. It enables us to understand the economy under consideration of the unpredictability of human actions. No one - really no one - can foresee the future. The Austrian School takes into consideration the important role of decisions of individuals on transactions and explains how things are settled into order despite the apparent chaos of individual actions. Conclusion: The Austrian School offers the strongest defense. Striving for personal and individual happiness is key. The basis for such a society and economics is built on market money which can be chosen by people themselves, free of any constraints or enforcement. As history shows us, such an item has to possess the following features: it has to be comparable, dividable, it has to be rare and easily transportable. Gold and Silver accomplish these features best and that’s also the reason why these metals have been the top medium of exchange over the past 5000

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years. Gold and Silver have an “inner value” and are not dependent upon promises of debt redemption by a third party. That’s why I believe that the central banking system is ultimately the root of all evil. It is wrong that we stick to a monetary paper system (fiat) which is based on the promise that the accumulated unpayable debts have to be redeemed by the actual and future generation via taxes and inflation. Furthermore, it is a plain fact that all past fiat systems have ended up in hyperinflation; they were the basis of wars and destruction. Our current fiat system is the longest-lasting so far and (at this point) we even don’t have anything to compare it with.

In this document, I would like to show the meaning of Gold within a liberal social system and

how it acts as a guarantor for the persistency of the most valuable good, being the freedom of people. ” The goal of this document is to provide hard facts. That’s why we will take a closer look to some macro-economic developments. Afterwards, I will talk about Gold and the most important drivers responsible for the current long-lasting bull market. It will make clear whether Gold is in a bubble or not. Last but not least, I will then provide a brief introduction of our company Global Gold, mainly to show how our services are designed to use precious metals to protect against a potential collapse of the actual currency and financial system.

The macro-economic view
We kick off this chapter with a couple of quotes from Alan Greenspan, which he wrote in his article "Gold and Economic Freedom", published and re-printed in Any Rand’s book, “Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal” (New York: New American Library, 1967). “The abandonment of the Gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which -- through a complex series of steps -- the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of Gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets...” (…) “In the absence of the Gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. (…) The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there is no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.” (…) “This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against Gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands

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as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the Gold standard.” Alan Greenspan reigned as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System for nearly 20 years. Being in that position since 1987, he was responsible for the biggest credit expansion in fiat money in the history of the USA. In 2003, Congressman Dr. Ron Paul handed over to Alan Greenspan a copy of his article “Gold and Economic Freedom“, which Greenspan had written in 1967, and asked him if he wanted to repeal. The answer Mr. Greenspan gave (quote): “I wouldn‘t change a single word! “ And here is a quote from Henry Ford regarding the monetary system: “It is well enough that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” Below is a chart that defines the background of all events in the coming years. It is the Mises Institute's True Money Supply (TMS) for the US dollar. TMS consists of cash, checking accounts and no-notice deposit accounts, as well as a few other minor cash balances. It represents the actual cash and electronic cash in the system that is instantly available for purchases of goods and services.

Source: Alasdair Macleod / www.financeandeconomics.org

The dotted line is the exponential growth trend, or, in other words, the maximum rate of growth that can continue forever. In this context, I usually like to quote Kenneth E. Boulding, Economist and Social Scientist, who once said: “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” You see there was a valid trend until mid-2002. However, since then, True Money Supply TMS has accelerated at a faster rate, telling us that TMS growth entered a hyperbolic phase when the Fed eased rates in the wake of the dot-com collapse. In other words, TMS is already hyperinflationary.
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What does hyperinflationary mean and is there a difference between inflation and rising prices? According to Gregor Hochreiter, Economist from Austria, these two terms are used interchangeably nowadays. Mr. Hochreiter claims that this blurred terminology comes with grave consequences because it prevents us from recognizing the cause-and-effect relationship and consequently keeps us from solving the real problem. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to distinguish inflation and rising prices. As per the Austrian School of Economics, inflation describes the expansion of the uncovered money supply, whereas rising prices denotes the increase in the general price level. In spoken language, the latter tends to be associated with consumer prices. Inflation is the root cause of the devaluation of money, whereas price increases are just the result of inflation. So the True Money Supply shows you how in the background inflation continues to be fuelled … on a hyperbolic basis. Please bear in mind that economists are now telling central banks to accelerate monetary growth at a faster rate to offset the tendency for bank credit to shrink. They see no other way to avoid a bank balance sheet implosion with all the deflationary consequences that it implies. So the prospects for 2012 and thereafter are for TMS to continue its hyperbolic trend, and incidentally continue supplying funds for a government deficit which is completely out of control. Also bear in mind that when such a trend becomes established, it will be almost impossible to stop it since the whole debt-based economy and the banking system would collapse. The next chart shows the funded debt, which even do not cover the future liabilities such as social security, government pension and medicare costs.

Source: Budget of the United States Government

In the Baby Boomers‘ formative years, it took the US government a year to increase their funded debt by US$ 3.1 billion. Today, as these Boomers retire, it takes them 23 hours to do the same! It is important in this context to mention that the US government debt had reached a total of USD 14 790 billion by the end of 2011, with interest paid amounting to USD 454 billion at an average rate of 2.9%. Within the past twenty years, debt has increased by 350%, while the interest burden has only risen by 60%. If interest rates were on a similar level as in 1991, interest paid would have increased to

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USD 1 200 billion. According to the CBO (Congressional Budget Office), government debt will rise to USD 20 000 billion (20 trillion) by 2015. Let me give you an example of an evolution of only the last 10 years. The USA has three times as many Treasury bonds outstanding compared to 2002. The average rate has fallen from 6.1% to 2%. This can only happen when central planners can artificially manipulate the natural level of interest rates. One instrument to push interest rates down is by monetizing debt directly through the central banks. In 2011, 61% of all US bond issues were bought by the Federal Reserve.

The explicit public debt (or funded debt) equals the official governmental debt, i.e. secured debt payable from the current revenue of the government.

Source: Frontlinethoughts.com

The implicit government debt represents unfunded liabilities and describes the difference between outstanding claims (public spending) and expected payments (revenue). It covers the funding gap between all future payment obligations and the expected / projected governmental revenues should the current policies remain in place (included are governmental promises to pay, especially in regards to pensions and pension rights / claims). As Ronald Stöferle from Erste Group Research stated in his report “In Gold We Trust”: “Retirees and welfare recipients already account for 59% of US taxpayers, up from 47% in 2008. Over the coming 19 years, 10 000 baby boomers will turn 65 every day and thus reach retirement age“. Herbert Stein used to say: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. “ On August 15th, 1971, President Nixon closed the so-called “Gold Window“, refusing to let foreign banks redeem their dollars for Gold, facilitating the devaluation of the USD which had been fixed relative to Gold for almost thirty years. This action was a direct reflection of the fact that the US was actually already bankrupt at that time.
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In 1973, a system of floating exchange rates was implemented. By doing so, they opened the floodgate for a never before seen creation of money and credit. This lead to a situation within the United States where inflation rates went through the roof and where Paul Volker, at that time the Chairman of the FED, had to increase interest rates up to almost 20%. Inflation was as high as 13% by the end of the 70‘s but the official rates for short term bonds were only at 8%. Therefore the “real“ interest rates at that particular moment stood at a negative 5% per year and as you will read further in this document, Gold and Silver prices increased enormously. However, the difference in terms of increasing interest rates back then and now is the US total debt level. As you can see in the 80‘s the debts of the US were relatively small in comparison to the debts we have today. Since then, the US has become the world‘s biggest debtor nation and making any increase in interest rates unsustainable, as we can see on below chart.

As noted earlier, not only the US but the whole world is currently facing the highest level of public debt in times of peace. The far-reaching consolidation of public budgets does not seem to be up for discussion. The grave but needed cutbacks are being postponed; the policy of “muddling through“ is cheerfully continued. It is logical that you can‘t fight over-indebtedness by adding even more debt.

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It is important to underline that the driving forces of economic health, are savings and

investment, not consumption and debt. According to the Austrian School of Economics, every act of consumption has to be preceded by production first. ” Debt is nothing but consumption brought forward, which will consequently not take place in the future. There does not seem to be any painless therapy for these problems. We at Global Gold believe therefore that Gold is an effective antidote. We don’t expect that interest rates will be pushed up anytime soon. Additionally, we think that central banks will keep on flooding the market with new paper money. As a consequence, we will see a negative level of interest rates and this will be one of the key drivers behind the rising price of Gold. One note in regards to negative interest rates: savers are the victims, because the value of their assets / savings is being inflated. Only the debtors (read: countries or governments) are profiting from it, because their amount of debts are being inflated. Please note that we are actually facing negative interest rates – look for example at the 2-year bonds in Switzerland, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Finland and Austria. …and who has to pay for it? On the following chart you can see the youth unemployment rate of the industrialized nations. Up to the end of 2011, approximately 74.8 million young people worldwide, aged between 15 and 24, had no job. Since 2007 – the year before the crisis – the number of the unemployed had even grown by more than 4 million young people. The actual global rate of youth unemployment is at 12.7%, and it doesn’t look like things will be improving in the near future. In that respect we quote Guy Ryder, vice president of ILO (the International Labor Organization), who stated on April 9th, 2012: “This is a ticking bomb with a tremendous destructive potential which could lead to social turmoil. We run the risk of losing a whole generation!”

The next chart shows the official unemployment rate of the industrialized nations.

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According to Ryder, the global unemployment rate amounted to 196 million people by the end of 2011. The forecast is that in 2013, 207 million individuals or 5.6% more people will be without employment. In this context it is important to see that these are the “official statistics”. In the US for instance the official unemployment rate is 8.1%. When we look at the calculation of the unemployment rate based on the model provided by Shadowstats, the unemployment rate goes up to 22.5%. Shadowstats is actually using the original calculations by the US governmental agencies in the past. Their calculation includes people who slip through the cracks, as an example, people who were frustrated and gave up the active search for a job or those who accepted a time-limited job with McDonalds or Wendy’s. In a recent research conducted by the International Labour Organization, it was reported that the soaring unemployment is increasing the risk of social unrest. They came to the conclusion that in 57 out of 106 nations analyzed, the potential for social unrest was increasing rapidly. The next chart shows the dramatic increase of citizens who depend on federal “food vouchers”. Actually the number lies at 46 million Americans, which roughly represents 16% of the total population – also there is no silver lining on the horizon because the real economy is stagnating.

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Key insights from monetary history
Herewith I would like to show you in which periods Gold played a role in the monetary system, as well as the steps and wars it took to abandon it.

Phase I: Ferdinand Lips described the 19th century as a period of prosperity and economic growth without inflation. In those days, the world‘s major currencies remained stable over a long period of time. It was the age of the Gold standard. The basic rule of the Gold standard was a fixed price for Gold, with each currency being convertible into Gold at a specific rate. All balance of payment deficits on an international level were settled in Gold. It was impossible for politicians to manipulate the Gold price and therefore it provided citizens with a currency that maintained its value. The world economy was operating to its full-potential and rising standards of living for the masses meant low or no unemployment. Because there was no inflation in this Golden “world of security“, people could live on their savings and concentrate on cultural activities. On December 23rd, 1913, when most of the parliamentarians were already on their way back home, President Wilson signed into law the Federal Reserve Act that created the Federal Reserve System. Phase II: In 1914, at the beginning of World War I, the Gold standard was thrown overboard within a few weekends. In order to finance the war, the world resorted to deficit financing and paper money. Lips stated in his famous book “Gold Wars“: “Had the Gold standard not been given up, the war would not have lasted more than a few months. Instead, it lasted more than four years and ruined most of the major economies in the world and left millions dead in its wake. “ A return to the Gold standard was planned for after World War I. To achieve this however, all nations that hollowed out their national currencies because of the war deficits needed to depreciate their own currency vs. Gold. Therefore, it would have been necessary to balance again the national Gold reserve with the value of each country’s paper money. It didn‘t happen, particularly because the British refused to do so as they feared the erosion of trust in the British Pound.

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Phase III: At the Genoa Conference in 1922, the Gold Exchange Standard was introduced, under which the dollar and the British pound were considered as good as Gold and could be held as reserve currencies. As mentioned before, it is important to note that these currencies had lost purchasing power and therefore couldn‘t be as good as Gold. The immediate effect of this new system was that the reserves were now counted twice: first in the country of issue, and then in the creditor country that held it as a reserve. Let me give you an example to explain why the reserves have been counted twice. Let‘s assume that an American company would have bought a German company for 10 million USD. Under the Gold standard, the 10 million USD would have been reduced in the money supply within the states (because 10 million priced in Gold would have been shifted to the account of the German Bundesbank). In return, the German D-Mark would have expanded to the equivalent of 10 million USD (because the German Bundesbank would have received Gold worth 10 million USD). But under the Gold exchange standard, the broad money of Germany expanded by the equivalent of 10 million USD in Deutschmark but the broad money in the US has never been reduced in return (by taking 10 million USD out of circulation) because the USD were as good as Gold under the Gold exchange standard. So what the Germans did, was that they took the 10 million USD and bought for the same amount US treasury-bills, on which they received an interest payment. Therefore the US didn‘t have to reduce the broad money supply because they kept the Gold reserves. Furthermore the reserve countries were able to run balance of payments deficits without being punished as long as the other nations had “confidence“ in their currencies. The new system set a gigantic money and credit machine into motion and created the inflationary boom of the 1920‘s. The new mechanism proved to be an engine of inflation whose product - excess purchasing power - flowed abundantly into the real estate and the stock markets. This was the cause for the inevitable corrective Depression starting with the crash of 1929. Phase IV: The years of the Great Depression. Keynesian economics had become the world‘s dominant economic theory! The stock market crashed between 1929 and 1932, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 90% of its value. Even tangible assets, such as real estate, were similarly hit hard. Residential and commercial buildings lost up to 80% of their value. Most commodities suffered a similar fate. The consumer price index during 1929 and 1933 dropped by 24%. Only Gold did well. Its price increased by 75% from USD 20.67 to US 35.00 an oz. In 1933 President Roosevelt abandoned the Gold standard and US citizens had to hand over all their Gold to the government in exchange for paper money. It was forbidden to hold Gold in the US and shortly after the enactment of these prohibitions, the President, under authority granted by the Congress, devalued the Gold dollar. Before 1933, the Federal Reserve notes contained the promise that they could be converted into Gold. Later, the caption was changed to read that a bill could be exchanged for ”lawful money of the United States“. Economist and Gold expert John Exter described that period as follows: “The contraction was so powerful that it took Roosevelt three terms and a war to get out of it. In 1933 unemployment stood at 25%. By 1937 it had fallen to 15% but in 1937-38, the stock market took another dive, the economy went into another contraction, and unemployment climbed back to 21%. World War II, of course, cured unemployment. Without the war there is no telling how long it would have lasted. “With the outbreak of World War II, Gold became a strategic commodity. Worldwide trading of the metal by
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individuals and corporations was banned. At the same time, the Gold stock of the US Treasury continued to grow because of bullion transfer for foreign purchases of military hardware. In September, 1949, the US Treasury – at the high point of America‘s Gold power – owned USD 24.6 billion worth of bullion (at 35 USD per ounce). Phase V: In July of 1944, representatives of 44 nations gathered at Bretten Woods to discuss the postwar international monetary system. It was decided that the USD Dollar and Gold would become the sole reserve currencies. The outcome was nothing more than America dictating the US dollar‘s official supremacy, the only currency convertible into Gold by foreign central banks. So, all the world currencies were expressed in terms of, and closely tied to, the US Dollar. In turn, the dollar was still fixed to Gold. Only the United States could change the price of Gold, and all other nations were forced to either increase the value or devalue in terms of dollars. Under Bretton Woods, the US had a commitment to maintain the value of the dollar by buying and selling unlimited quantities of Gold at 35 USD per ounce. It also had the commitment to pay Gold to foreign central banks, but often that commitment was not met, or the US would have lost all its Gold. Diplomatic pressure was applied to prevent Gold withdrawals form the US. James Dines recalls an incident when President Johnson discouraged Germany, for example, from converting its USD into Gold by reminding it that US troops stood between it and Russia. From that moment it was possible for the US to pay their debt in USD, which they created out of thin air. French President Charles de Gaulle called this the “exorbitant privilege“. Phase VI: During the 60‘s, the USD lost ongoing trust, and more and more governments started to exchange their USD into physical Gold. The French government bought nearly USD 3 billion of Gold from the US Treasury and shipped the bulk of its Gold custody holdings at the New York FED to Paris, and generally challenged the functioning of the Bretton Woods system. The London Gold-Pool, which had been established to oppress the price of Gold, failed. It was then decided, as part of the Washinton Agreement, to close it down and to establish a two-tiered Gold price: one for the central banks at 35 USD and one for the free-market. Central banks were forbidden to have anything to do with the free market; they could neither buy nor sell in it. The two-tier system divorced monetary from non-monetary Gold for the next seven years. By March 1968, the USD Gold stock had plummeted to around USD 10.5 billion priced at 35 USD per ounce (vs. 24.6 USD billion in 1949). Within the same month the US congress removed the 25% Gold reserve requirement for Federal Reserve Notes. The end of this monetary tragedy was reached when the Bank of England and the Swiss Nationalbank asked for Gold in exchange for their dollars in 1971. Richard Salsman (American Economist and lecturer) wrote in his book “Gold and Liberty“ that “by 1971, more than half of the Gold supply that was forcibly taken from US citizens in the 1930, ended up in the vaults of foreign central banks. This was the biggest bank heist in world history. It happened in slow motion and may not have been the intent of every official who participated in it. President Nixon responded and, on August 15, 1971 closed the Gold Window by refusing to allow the Treasury to redeem any foreign-held dollars in Gold. ”Closing the Gold Window was“ according to Salsman, “a polite expression for defaulting on Gold payments and repudiating an international monetary agreement“. Salsman also said “When Gold was ‘demonetized’ in 1971, many critics of Gold predicted that its price would fall below 35 USD per ounce.” They assumed that the paper dollar gave

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value to Gold, not the other way around”. The past has shown that nothing could be more wrong that , The this statement! Phase VII: Since August 1971 the dollar became nothing more than a fiat currency, and the FED were : then free to continue its monetary expansion at will. The result is, as we have seen, a massive explosion of debt. The problem with this mountain of debt is that it simply cannot be repaid. Debt is, as John Exter mentioned once, “a funny thing: it always must be repaid, if not by the debtor, then by “a the lender, or worse still, the taxpayers! taxpayers!” Last but not least here we can see the evolution provided by Ferdinand Lips and Jacques Trachsler from their book “Money, Gold and the Truth“, which reflects how stable the British Consumer Prices were under the Gold Standard since 1661: prices were not higher in 1914 than in 1661. However, it is tandard obvious from below chart that we have a serious problem since 1914.

The next chart shows the clearly intact downward trend of most currencies versus Gold. The equally weighted currency basket consis of USD, Euros, Swiss Francs and British Pound. consists

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As you can see, the Swiss Franc has lost so far only 90% of its purchasing power because Switzerland used to be for the longest period on a quasi Gold standard until it was decided by the parliament in November 1996 to decouple the Swiss Franc from Gold. The reason is that Switzerland joined the IMF in 1992 and under its laws Gold does not qualify as a monetary reserve. In September, 1996, an agreement amongst 15 Central banks was signed, that all of them were going to sell Gold in the future. There you can see how the currency market reacted to the statement: paper appreciated vs. Gold especially in USD and GBP, but for a short period of time only. In July 1998 Greenspan came out with the following statement while testifying before the banking committee of the US House of Representatives: “The central Banks stand ready to lease Gold in increasing quantities, should the price of Gold rise.” Within the 90’s, central banks started to lease their Gold reserves to the big bullion banks. Reginald Howe, American Lawyer and Gold analyst, described its process as follows (with the aim to oppress the rise in Gold prices). “If the Gold price pushes too high, Gold is dumped on the market in London and New York. Because of the leasing from central banks to bullion banks such as Morgan, Chase, Citibank, Deutsche Bank as well as later on UBS and Credit Suisse, these big money houses made hefty profits from leasing Gold. At the end of 1999, Deutsche Bank alone showed trades with an estimated value of 5000 tonnes of Gold – 1500 tonnes more than the official Gold reserves of Germany. Morgan, Chase and Citibank declared figures in June of 2000 that would be the equivalent of a Gold mountain of 8 461 tonnes.” Howe continues by stating that the trades follow a simple pattern: banks borrow Gold from central banks at extremely low interest. The advantage for the central bank is that at least a small profit is drawn from the largely useless piles of Gold in stock. The banks then sell the borrowed Gold bars. With the proceeds, they buy financial instruments, the yield of which surpasses the lease rate. This business is as lucrative as it is risky – and all of it is on margin. If the Gold price breaks out too far, Deutsche Bank, Goldman, Chase and their other cohorts pay a heavy price. Then the leasing rate would climb as well and – worse – they would not be able to pay for market purchases required to return the borrowed Gold, for the central banks eventually want the borrowed Gold back.
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Interesting in this context is that Gordon Brown sold 60% of the British Gold Reserves between 1999 and 2002. At the same time the SNB increased its Gold lending activities from 187 tonnes in 1998 to 316 tonnes in 1999. In June 1999, a law was designed to permit Gold sales. In spite of this, 1 300 tonnes of “excess” Gold were included in the Washington Agreement and the Swiss started selling them. These combined actions at least helped to keep the price of Gold down for a while again. Francois Marie Arouet or better know as “Voltaire” who has been a witness of the so called “Mississippi-bubble”, another fiat-money adventure established by John Law in France around 1720, stated once:

“ Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero. ”
We fully agree with Voltaire and have had little reason to believe that the downward trend should subside in the foreseeable future, which is why we stick to our positive assessment of the future Gold price development.

State of the Gold market
The Gold price has risen from USD 278 at the beginning of 2002 to USD 1590 by mid July 2012; that’s a clear and meaningful increase of 471%.

Gold in Euro increased from 312 Euro to 1297 Euros; that’s an increase of 316%. Gold in CHF rose from 460 CHF to 1558 CHF; that’s an increase of 238%.

Gold is the barometer that indicates that there is something wrong with the fiat currency …

otherwise it wouldn’t go up! ”
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The above chart reflects the relative weakness of each currency priced in Gold. That’s why Gold increased in USD the most because it is reflecting the biggest distrust in this particular currency during the past 11 years. Interesting to discover on the chart, is the price in USD has corrected much more compared to other currrencies since its peak in August of 2011. As you can see the price in Euro and CHF are approximately on the same level. This shows the rising distrust in the Euro and the CHF because of the ongoing Euro Crisis. It shows also the ongoing weakening of the Swiss Franc due to the intervention by the Swiss National Bank to peg the Euro to the Swiss Franc at the level of CHF 1.20. The USD is still profiting from it’s erroneously “safe haven” status and that’s why the people are fleeing out of the Euro and CHF into the USD. Since August 2011 up to July 2012 the CHF lost 21% vs. the USD and the Euro lost 16% vs. the USD. But as you can see Gold kept its value in Euro and CHF and was not going through a correction such as the USD. Before judging whether the current Gold price is too high or too low, we should first look into the hard facts on the supply and demand side of Gold.

Source: “In Gold we Trust” by Ronald Stöfferle

Contrary to other commodities, the discrepancy between annual production and total available supply (i.e. the stock) for Gold and Silver is enormous. This is called a high stock-to-flow-ratio. The aggregated volume of all the Gold ever produced comes to about 170 000 tonnes. This is the stock. Annual production was close to 2 600 tonnes in 2011. That is the flow. Dividing the former by the latter, we receive the stock-to-flow ratio of 65 years. Silver has also a high existing stock versus yearly flows of 20 years. Crude oil, copper, corn or wheat have a stock of a few months only. Here as well we see that Gold and Silver are different than other commodities. Ronald Stöfferle, precious metals analyst of Erste Group Research, describes it as follows: ”Gold reserves grow by about 1.5% every year and thus at a much slower rate than any of the money supply
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aggregates around the world. The growth rate is vaguely in line with population growth. Trust in the current and future purchasing power of money or any means of payment not only depends on how much is available now, but also on how the quantity is expected to change over time.” What does that mean in numbers? If the annual mine production were to double (which is highly unlikely), this would translate into an annual increase of only 3% in the supply of Gold. This is still a very minor inflation of total Gold reserves, especially compared to current rates of dilution of paper currencies. We therefore agree with the conclusion of Ronald Stöfferle that Gold is not precious because it is scarce, but because the opposite is true: Gold is precious because the annual production is so low relative to the stock. Gold has acquired this feature over centuries, and cannot lose it anymore. This stability and safety is a crucial prerequisite for the creation of trust. And it is what clearly differentiates Gold and Silver as monetary metals from commodities and the other precious metals. Commodities are consumed, whereas Gold is hoarded. The demand side is made up of investors, mainly the jewellery industry, industrial industry, private individuals and as we will see later on, also by central banks. But this is still only a fraction of total demand. Reservation demand accounts for the largest part of demand. This term describes Gold owners who do not want to sell Gold at the current price level. By refusing to sell, they are responsible for the price remaining at the same level. This means that the decision not to sell at current prices is as important as the decision to buy Gold. In net terms, the effect on the price is the same. The Gold supply is therefore always high. At a price of USD 5 000 the supply of recycled Gold would exceed annual production several times. This also explains why the often-quoted Gold deficit is a fairy tale. Do you know how much Gold is being traded on average per day? According to LBMA, 10.9 billion ounces of Gold worth a total of USD 15 200 billion were traded in the first quarter of 2011. This equals 125 times the annual production, or twice the amount of Gold that has ever been produced. This leads to a daily turnover of USD 240 billion per day which means a higher turnover than for most of the currency pairs. By comparison, the daily turnover of Apple Shares is USD 5.5. Billion. This means that Gold is one of the most liquid assets classes in the word. What also has changed since 1970 is that up to then almost 70% of the production came from South African mines. The production nowadays is broadly diversified from a geographic perspective. Gold is now produced on all continents with the exception of Antarctica. Therefore Gold is much better anchored on a global scale. All these facts lead to an actual renaissance of Gold in traditional finance. Due to its high liquidity and unique characteristics, Gold is becoming ever more prominent as collateral. Along with LCH Clearnet, Intercontinental Exchange, JP Morgan, and the CME Group and Eurex too, now accept Gold as collateral. Actually talks are held to have Gold acknowledged as a ”tier1“ asset within the framework of Basel III. Even the central banks seem to remember that Gold is money – Gold is pushed back into the monetary system again. Do you see a trend here?

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Source: World Gold Council The world‘s central banks became net buyers of Gold for the first time in 2010 after they were previously net sellers for many decades. During 2010, the world‘s central banks bought 87 metric tonnes of Gold more than they sold. The Gold supply by official sector sales fell from 545 tonnes in 2002 to a negative 440 tonnes in 2011. For many years now, central banks in the West have been the “sellers“ whereas especially countries in the Middle East as well as emerging markets (such as Mexico, Russia, Turkey, South Korea but especially China and India) have become the “buyers“. We at Global Gold expect that this trend will continue, with further acquisitions by emerging-market central banks and no significant sales by those in advanced economies.

Below is a combined overview of the three Gold demand drivers: technology, jewellery, investment.

Source: World Gold Council

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So what does this tell us? To summarize the facts we provide here, the Gold supply / demand situation has mainly been influenced by Gold investment demand including official sector demand. Two of the three variables are relatively stable compared to the Gold investment demand. In any attempt to predict the development of the future Gold price, it is important to understand this Gold investment component. The past decade was characterized more strongly by deflation fear than inflation fear, one might assume that investors didn‘t buy Gold as an inflation-hedge, what Gold is actually most-know for. People bought precious metals as a hedge against all sorts of crises: political, financial, economic, currency, geo-political, etc. If one assumes that these crisis scenarios are still in place and that none of these crises have been solved – or if one even assumes that these crisis scenarios have even grown closer, bigger, or more numerous – and the reasons for having a crisis hedge are becoming more convincing every day, then one might expect that Gold investment demand will increase and will drive prices higher. In a world long on potential crises and short on any sustainable solution, we are convinced that it is wise to stick to Gold and, for that matter to continue to buy more Gold for quite some time to come!

And here comes my favourite chart (personally):

Source: World Gold Council

Gold investment demand grew from 352 tonnes in 2002 to 1 641 tonnes in 2011; an increase of 366%. It has changed the most over the past 11 years, both in absolute and relative terms. In absolute terms, it increased 1 289 tonnes. In relative terms, it changed from 10% of the total demand in 2002 to 40% of total demand in 2011, which is an increase of 30 percentage points. History tells us that every bull market ends in euphoria and excess. The next chart is comparing (indexbased) the bull market from 1970 to 1980 vs. the actual bull market since 1999.

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Source: Erste Group Research, Ronald Stöfferle

The yellow line shows the bull market starting in 1970, when Gold stood at 41 USD and went up to 850 USD by 1980, a 20-fold increase. Very interesting to see is that within the last 6 weeks before the crash the Gold price doubled! What had Ferdinand Lips to say about this (the famous Swiss private banker and editor of Gold Wars)? It all started before Nixon closed the Gold Window. As US short-term dollar liabilities to foreigners were rising, French economist Jacques Rueff recommended doubling the Gold price in order to restore confidence in the dollar. When he suggested it to President Kennedy in 1962 during his visit to Paris, Kennedy answered that he could not do this to the American people. Therefore de Gaul announced in 1965 that France was going to exchange their USD for Gold and asked to physically transport the metals back to France. Until the summer of 1966 France managed to increase their reserves up to 86% with physical Gold. By August 1971, the situation had reached a critical stage. Neither the two-tier system nor the appeasements by politicians and economists of all sorts helped. In August, US shortterm dollar liabilities to foreigners were estimated at about US 60 billion, of which about two-thirds were owed to foreign official institutions. At USD 35 per ounce, US Gold holdings had shrunk to USD 9.7 billion. On August 9th, 1971 the price of Gold had reached a new high of 43.94 USD. Germany‘s Mark had gained 7% since being floated on May 10, 1971. This meant that the US dollar effectively had been devalued by 10%. Swiss banks also temporarily suspended trading dollars in an attempt to stem the growing monetary panic. The end of this monetary tragedy was reached when the Bank of England and the SNB asked Gold in exchange for their dollars.

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President Nixon responded and, on August 15, 1971 closed the Gold Window by refusing to allow the Treasury to redeem any foreign-held dollars in Gold. The US were defaulting on Gold payments and repudiating an international monetary agreement. These facts lead to the bull market of 1970 – 1980. Important to know is that in 1980 due to the Revolution by Ayatolah Khomeny followed by the occupation of the US Embassy in Tehran, the US government froze the Iranian Gold reserves in the US and therefore the Iranians panicked and started buying physical Gold like crazy in Switzerland. Please note that already by 1968 the Swiss banks had captured an estimated 80% of the world‘s physical Gold market. Not only could they offer the most modern banking facilities, but each of the big banks also had their own precious metals refinery. From then on Zurich was the biggest Gold trading center in the world. London only began to regain some of its prominence with the launching of the Gold Futures Markets. Let‘s get back again to the situation in 1980. In addition to the Iranian crisis riots took place in Saudi Arabia and at the Mosque of Mecca. Within the same period the famous Hunt Brothers were purchasing all the physical Silver which was available, unfortunately financed with bank credits, which broke their neck later on. So all the events basically led to euphoria and excess in 1980. The blue line on the above chart reflects the actual bull market since 1999 up to the end of 2011. It represents a multiplicator of 4.5 times - it’s a complete different picture! Notwithstanding the above facts, I would like to underline that Gold was pushed out of the monetary system by the end of 1980. As we have seen before, Gold is being pushed into the system again because of the ongoing purchases by certain central banks and because of the fact that the investment demand for Gold in general has increased tremendously. Therefore we are convinced that Gold will play a key role in the future monetary system again and prices will therefore increase further because the value of all the fiat paper money will depreciate due the ongoing exponential expansion in True Money Supply. Interesting is also the fact that in 1980, 23% of the world total assets were invested in Gold (at the price of USD 850) and 14% in Silver based on its highest price of USD 50 per oz. At the end of September last year, Gold reflected only 3.6% of the world financial assets at the price of USD 1 421 and Silver stood for 0.7%. These are facts that show that the upside potential of physical Gold and Silver is still tremendous.

“ As a conclusion, we don‘t see a bubble in Gold and the only similarity to the situation in 1980
vs. today is that we are again confronted with a possible, extremely dangerous, conflict in the Middle East and Iran in particular.” The Iranian banks were kicked out of the SWIFT system a few months ago and are now trading oil and gas with India in Gold. The last time another country tried to bypass the US dollar was Iraq under Sadam Hussein. I‘m convinced that this led to the US invasion, which has been justified to the Western world based on evidence which turned out to be lies and rumours. Therefore it is obvious that you can finance wars as long as you have the ability / power to print money into existence based on nothing than thin air. The chart below illustrates that, in the USA at the moment with the current Gold price of USD 1 610, only 16% of the monetary base is covered by Gold. In spite of the eleven years of bull market this is
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only slightly higher than the 11% at the absolute lows in Gold in 2001. Do you see the high after the end of Bretton Woods in 1980, when 168% of the monetary base was backed by US Gold reserves? The red line shows the average coverage during the past 40 years has stood at 34%. The Shadow Gold Price reflects the price level that Gold would have, if all the paper dollars would have been backed by Gold.

So also from this point of view, we can‘t see a bubble in today’s Gold price. Today only 2.4% of US government debt is covered by the US Gold reserves. As per Ronald Stöfferle from Erste Group Research, this is substantially below the long-term average of 4.9%. If the Gold price were to double (or the government debt were to drop by 50%, which is rather less likely) the coverage ratio would only match the long-term mean. Only at a price of about USD 16 000, the ratio would reach the highs of 1980.

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In other words long-term bull markets never end around averages but always set extreme values versus other asset classes at the end of the trend. This supports our argument that Gold is still attractively valued and that the Gold price has not entered into its final trend acceleration phase yet. Here is another chart from the famous Gold Report of Ronald Stöfferle, Erste Group Austria. The ratio Dow / Gold currently stands a 7.8x. It’s currently valued above the long-term median of 5.8x. This means that Gold is still relatively inexpensive in comparison with the Dow Jones Index. However, it is not ”dirt-cheap“ anymore, but as mentioned before ”bull markets tend to end in euphoria and excess, which is why a substantially lower ratio is expected.

In 1932, the ratio was 2x, at the end of the last bull market the ratio was 1.3x. Therefore Ronald Stöfferle as well as we at Global Gold expects that the values of 2x might be reached again as a result

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of the secular bull market. Under this assumption of a constant Dow Jones index, Gold would therefore have to rise to USD 6 200/ounce.

In a deflationary depression, liquidity flows from the higher part of the pyramid downwards, amid falling willingness to assume risk. Philip Barton describes credit in his book ”safe haven – a history of Gold“ as “slumbering mistrust“, creditors try to sell the continuously falling number of liquid assets and head for the lower asset classes as a result of their rising risk aversion. At the bottom end is Gold. Since Gold does not hinge on any form of IOU, it is the only alternative to paper money and is thus at the bottom of the upside-down pyramid.

As we can see in monetary history, during a period of profound deflation, the investment focus shifts from capital growth to capital preservation. Deflation thus always comes with falling confidence in the (perceived) root cause of the crisis (governments, banks, speculators, etc.) and their rating. Therefore the purchasing power of Gold gains also within a deflationary scenario. Let me quote John Exter, famous American economist, Vice President of the Federal Reserve NYC, member of the Mont Pelerin Society, of the Council on Foreign Relations, and of the Committee for Monetary Research & Education as well as founder of the central bank of Sri Lanka. He has been the creator of the Exter‘s pyramid or also known as Exter‘s Golden Pyramid or Exter‘s Inverted pyramid. He stated: “So the bottom line for the world economy does not look good. You can do much to protect yourself. Go down the pyramid; get liquid. Federal Reserve currency notes are at the very bottom of the paper part. Hold enough to get through this current liquidity squeeze when banks might close and cash will be king. Treasury bills are good too. They earn interest, but you cannot spend them in the supermarket.” Here we might add that he made this statement in the 50s, so I personally would skip the Treasury bills because it is the biggest bubble I can see. He goes on saying: “But the best asset of

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all, whether in inflation or deflation, will be Gold, at the base of the pyramid. Accumulate what you can of it, either above the ground, like coins or bullion, or in the ground, like mining shares.“ In summary, an increase in prosperity and growing confidence would then boost willingness to assume risk again, causing a gradual inflow of liquidity from the Gold sector into the higher segments of the pyramid, and a new cycle starts. Deflation therefore means an improvement in monetary quality, whereas inflation means an increase in monetary quantity. Let me close with a quote from John Maynard Keynes. “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Different ways how to invest in precious metals
There are several ways to invest in precious metals: Mining shares – we love mining shares; the only challenge is to come up with the right selection. Doug Casey said ones that 95% is crap and only 5% are real good investments. However it is an investment involving speculation and comes from a growth perspective. The ”back-yard“ approach – can be a solution for a small amount of metals with the aim to have them immediately available when needed. However, make sure you are digging on a regular basis so that your neighbors don‘t think twice about your new hobby… and don‘t forget the location of your cache. Safe Deposit Box – the advantage is it’s very cheap, the dissadvantage is it’s always related to a bank account. In times like these we can see how fast the banking rules are chaning in terms of privacy. In addition their metals are not insured against theft, fire and if the bank goes bust or a bank holiday is declared, it might be very difficult to regain access for a longer period of time. In the event of a government confiscation they could be frozen too. Online programs – most of them are focused on the retail market and you can buy coin by coin. Therefore they might involve higher premiums for certain bars and coins. In addition some of them don‘t come along with a dedicated storage option. Watch out for the jurisdiction they are operating under (e.g. US law) as this might be a disadvantage if the US decides to freeze assets / Gold of US accounts. Try to find out how the account is set up. If it is through a bank (which is most likely the case) then it could take a tremendous amount of time to unwind the assets especially if you believe that the next crisis will involve the financial / banking system again. Other allocated programs – the best solution I have seen so far is GoldMoney because this one is 100% phyiscally allocated, based on 12.5 kg standard bars. The solution is very attractive if you intend to regulary trade in and out to profit from the volaltility in the market. If you want physical

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delivery, you have to pay an additional premium; only certain formats such as 1 kg or 100 g bars are available. The fabrication delays can be sustainable depending on market conditions. Paper solutions with claim status – this is something we recommend not doing at all. Avoid investing in paper Gold (mostly in the form of ETF’s). If you believe that the actual crisis will pass, it might be a solution for you. But if you buy Gold to protect you from a severe crisis, then we consider these solutions as not attractive. The reason: they are nothing more than a promise to Gold. The amount of paper Gold in the market should ring an alert bell: the paper market is 100 times bigger than all the physical Gold produced / mined so far in history. So in a real crisis scenario you can‘t be sure to receive any metals at all. Always important when it comes to ETF‘s, is that you read the T&C because you will be surprised what you will find in it. Let me give you an example about the GLD ETF (SPDR Gold shares) If the stocks are closed – the GLD will stop as well. In-Kind redemptions: ”GLD‘s refusal to facilitate an in-kind redemption – in other words, the delivery of physical Gold upon request of the investor.“ This does at least raise some questions. Storage: The ZKB ETF had around 70 tonnes of Gold stored and it was hard to find more secure and cost-efficient storage space. This has been all over the press. GLD basically has no storage issues – they should store at the moment more than 100 000 standard bars – which reflects at the moment 1 300 tonnes of Gold. No such news is to be found anywhere on GLD. That does raise suspicion. GLD is not audited – As reflected in their T&C, even ”monitoring“ is limited. In fact, the subcustodians don‘t have to provide any documentation for proof of the existence of the underlying Gold. The obvious question then becomes how an investor is supposed to know there is actually any Gold in the vaults at all? The Gold holdings of GLD are NOT insured – loss, damage, theft, fraud are obviously risk factors that any allocated Gold program will face. Solid Gold programs deal with it by insuring the value of the Gold in storage. In the case of GLD, all risk is passed on to the investor. The quality of the Gold is NOT confirmed – ”neither the Trustee nor the Custodian confirms the fineness of the Gold.“ Our conclusion to this statement? You are not only unsure of any Gold being there at all, but you are even unsure about its purity. If there were anything physical held in storage, you still wouldn‘t know whether it is investment grade Gold or just a heap of tungsten. The second remark is even more hilarious! The Gold is NOT protected from the custodian‘s insolvency. Therefore your investment is not protected or insured in any way. If they go bankrupt, your investment will be lost as well. GLD does not exclude the possibility of leasing – the SEC allows short selling of these funds which is a fraud on itself. There are millions of shares short in GLD and this does not even

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count the naked shorts since they are not required to declare. Why do you want to invest money in Gold when you can be sure that your investment will be used to push the price of Gold down? Whims of US Government: GLD is a Wall Street product, which translates into high exposure in Washington. The institutions on Wall Street are backed by government. That programs they run provide zero protection from confiscation, taxation, or regulatory nonsense. Most important to keep in mind is their huge conflict of interest. These are the very firms that have been involved in the process of short selling Gold & Silver in huge quantities. It is unlikely that they would be involved in creating ETF‘s that are physically backed by real Precious Metals, unless they had a hidden agenda and highly questionable purposes. In general it seems that we have been going through a gradual shift from paper Gold investments towards physical purchases. This year, physical investment demand will most likely exceed ETF demand by a factor of 5, as confirmed by Ronald Stöfferle. Only a few years ago, the situation was exactly the opposite, with ETF‘s accounting for 80% of investment demand. This paradigm shift shows the gradual loss of confidence in paper Gold. So it all comes down to the truth sentence: “if you can‘t hold it, you don‘t own it“.

How Global Gold can help protect your future “ Global Gold offers private and institutional investors a safe, convenient and attractive way of
buying, selling, storing and delivering a variety of allocated Gold, Silver, platinum and palladium bullion, coins and bars, all from within the secure confines of high-security vaults. ” With Global Gold you also have the ability to diversify your wealth into different jurisdictions, that’s why we are offering high-security vaults in Switzerland, Hong Kong and soon in Singapore. Global Gold was founded to offer its clients a rock solid solution that is taking all foreseeable threats into consideration which are linked to a possible crash of the actual monetary and financial system. It was founded for the purpose of offering a solution that works and meets their client‘s expectations even – and particularly – during a severe financial crisis. Global Gold’s trading and services are facilitated “outside” the banking system. There is no dependence on the function of stock exchanges or banks. A financial crisis will not stop the program from operating. It does not have any cash settlement clauses or other provisions that would restrict the delivery or selling of the precious metals promptly. An interesting variety of internationally recognized coins and bars are available, sourced from mints and wholesales, guaranteeing the quality and authenticity of the products. Since we store your coins and bars one-to-one like you have bought them, a request for physical delivery can be effectuated
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without delay. With Global Gold you do not have to wait for the fabrication of your goods, nor are you subject to any of the related fabrication costs. Your goods are already fabricated and at your immediate disposal. Switzerland is known for its stability, safety, solid rule of law and high services quality. In view of current global economic and political realities, we are convinced that Switzerland is the jurisdiction that most properly guards the interest of our clients.

So let‘s summarize the 10 reasons why Global Gold is different:

• • • • • • • • • •

100% non-bank 100% direct, unencumbered ownership 100% free of small-print cash settlement clauses 100% high security storage 100% insured and audited 100% physically stored investment-grade bullion coins & bars 100% deliverable at any time 100% tax-free 100% competitive pricing 100% Swiss

Contact details of Global Gold
GLOBAL GOLD AG Herrengasse 9 CH-8640 Rapperswil Tel.: +41 58 810 1750 Fax: +41 58 810 1751 E-mail: info@globalGold.ch WWW.GLOBALGOLD.CH

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About the author
Claudio Grass joined the Global Gold team in 2011 as Managing Director. Prior to joining Global Gold he gained vast experience in international sales and marketing working for multinational corporations especially within the airline, NGO and IT business. He brings along experience in international business consulting, business development and key account management with focus on sales, sourcing and strategy. He is a strong advocate of free-market principles and therefore he feels attracted to the principles of the libertarian philosophies. Claudio Grass hold’s a commercial degree from the Zurich Business School and studied business economics at the European Economics Academy in St. Gallen, Switzerland.

Disclaimer
Nothing within this document of Global Gold should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire of dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Nothing contained in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making an investment decision. This document is intended for educational purposes only. Global Gold assumes no responsibility for the content, accuracy or completeness of the information presented.

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