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2. A blood test is 99 percent eective in detecting a certain disease when the disease is present. However, the test also yield a false-positive result for 2 percent of the healthy patient tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then with probability 0.02 the test will say that this person has the disease.) Suppose .5 percent of the population has the disease. Find the conditional probability that a random tested individual actually has the disease given that his or her test result is positive.

1. Determine c that renders f (x, y) a valid joint probability density function of X and Y . 2. Find the marginal distributions of X and Y , respectively; 3. Determine whether or not X and Y are independent; 4. Find P (X + Y = 2). 5. Find P (X 0|Y = 1) 6. Find E(X + Y ). 7. Find E(XY ). 8. Find Cov(2X + 1, 3Y ).

4. The mean score for freshmen on an aptitude test at a certain college is 540, with a standard deviation of 30. What is the probability that two groups of students selected at random, consisting of 50 and 50 students, respectively, will dier in their mean scores by an amount between 6 and 12 points?

5. The following data, recorded in days, represent the length of time to recovery for patients randomly treated with one of two medications to clear up severe bladder infections Medication 1 Medication 2 n1 = 16 n2 = 36 x1 = 17 x2 = 19 2 s1 = 3 s2 = 2 2

2 2 Let 1 and 2 , and 1 and 2 be the means and variances of length of time to recovery for patients for medication 1 and medication 2, respectively. Assuming normal populations. 2 2 2 2 1. Test if H0 : 1 = 2 versus H0 : 1 = 2 at = 0.05.

2. Find a 95% condence interval for the dierence 1 2 in the mean recovery time for the two medications. 3. Test H0 : 1 = 2 versus H1 : 1 = 2 at = 0.05.

6. A random sample of 100 recorded deaths in the United States during the past year showed an average life span of 72 years. Assuming a population standard deviation of 8 years, does this seem to indicate that the mean life span today is greater than 70 years? Use a 0.05 level of signicance.

7. The average grade for an exam is 85, and the standard deviation is 10. If 25% of the class is given As, and the grades are curved to follow a normal distribution what is the lowest score to have an A.

8. A pair of fair 4-sided dice is rolled 192 times. Let T be the number that a total of 5 occurs. 1. Find the probability function of T ? 2. What are the mean (expected value) and variance of T ? 3. What is the probability that a total of 5 occurs at most 49 times?

Critical Values: Let Z be a standard normal random variable: P (Z > z ) =

0.5398 0.5596 0.5793 0.5987 0.6179 z -0.1 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 -0.3

9. An insurance company oers its policyholders a number of dierent premium payment options. For a randomly selected policyholder, let X be the number of months between successive payments. The cumulative distribution function X is 0, if x < 1; 0.4, if 1 x < 3; F (x) = 0.6, if 3 x < 5; 0.8, if 5 x < 7; 1.0, if x 7. 1. What is the probability mass function of X? 2. Compute P (4 < X 7). 3. Find the mean, E(X) and the variance, Var(X) of X.

10. The waiting time, in hours, between successive speeders spotted by a radar unit is continuous random variable, X, with cumulative distribution function 0, x < 0; F (x) = 8x 1 e , x 0. 1. Find the probability density function, f (x), of X and use it to compute the probability of waiting less than 6 minutes between successive speeders. 2. Find the expected value and the variance of the waiting time, X, in hours.

11. A six-sided dice is rolled until the rst time T that a six turns up. 1. What is the probability distribution for T ? 2. Find P (T > 3). 3. Find P (T > 6|T > 3).

12. If a worn machine tool produces 1% defective parts and the parts produced are independent, nd the mean number of defective parts out of 25, and the variance of the number of defective part.

13. Find the probability that a random sample of 25 observations, from a normal population with variance 2 = 6, will have a variance s2 1. greater than 9.1; 2. between 3.462 and 10.745.

2 2 14. If S1 and S2 represent the variances of independent random samples of size n1 = 25 and n2 = 31, taken from normal populations with equal variances, nd 2 S1 P ( 2 > 1.26). S2

15. An interior automotive supplier places several electrical wires in a harness. A pull test measures the force required to pull spliced wires apart. A customer requires that each wire that is spliced into the harness withstand a pull force of 20 pounds. Let X equal the pull force required to pull 20 gauge wires apart. Assume that the distribution of X is N (, 2 ). The following data give 20 observations of X 29 25 30 26 26 24 22 23 28 28 21 28 24 25 25 26 28 22 26 24 1. Find point estimates for and 2 . 2. Find a 95% condence interval for that provides a lower bound for . 3. Find a 95% condence interval for 2 . 4. Test H0 : = 26 versus H1 : = 26 at = 0.05. 5. Test H0 : 2 = 4 versus H1 : 2 = 4 at = 0.05.

16. A unfair six-sided dice is tossed 120 with the following results x 1 2 3 4 5 6 Frequencies 12 29 17 15 26 21 Test the hypothesis of 0.05 level of signicance that the recorded data may be tted by the following distribution 1 12 , if x = 1; 2 , if x = 2; 8 1 8 , if x = 3; P (X = x) = 1 , if x = 4; 8 2 , if x = 4; 8 2 12 , if x = 4.

17. To test whether a golf ball of brand A can be hit a greater distance o the tee than a golf ball of brand B, each of 17 golfers hit a ball of each brand, eight hitting ball A before ball B and nine hitting ball B before ball A. Assume that the dierences of the paired A distance and B distance are approximately normally distributed and test the null hypothesis H0 : D = 0 against the alternative hypothesis H1 : D > 0 using a paired t-test with the 17 dierences. Use a 0.05 level of signicance. Golfer Distance for Ball A Distance for Ball B 1 265 252 2 272 276 3 246 243 4 260 246 5 274 275 6 263 246 7 255 244 8 258 245 9 276 259 10 274 260 11 274 267 12 269 267 13 244 251 14 212 222 15 235 235 16 254 255 17 224 231

18. The contingency table shows a random sample of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome treated with a drug or with a placebo. At = 0.10, can you conclude that the variables treatment and result are dependent? Based on these results, would you recommend using the drug as part of a treatment for chronic fatigue syndrome? Treatment Result Drug Placebo Improvement 20 20 No change 10 15

19. In a poll, 1000 males and 1000 females were asked, If you could have only one of the following, which would you pick: money, health, or love? Their responses are presented in the table below. Money Health Love Men 100 500 400 Women 60 620 320 Test the claim that gender and response are independent at 0.05 level of signicance.

20. A magazine reported the proportions of adult American who favor stricter gun-control laws. A telephone poll of 2000 adult Americans, of whom 750 were gun owners and 1250 did not own guns, showed that 250 gun owners and 250 non-gun owners favor stricter gun-control laws. Let p1 and p2 be the respective proportions of gun owners and non-gun owners who favor stricter gun-control laws. 1. With = 0.05, test H0 : p1 =

1 3 1 against H1 : p1 = 3 .

Critical Values:

Let Z be a standard normal random variable: P (Z > z ) = 0.16 0.1 0.05 0.025 0.02 z 1.00 1.28 1.645 1.96 2.00 Let T () have a t-distribution with degrees of freedom: P (T () > T ()) = T () T (19) T (39) T (40) T (50) 0.025 2.903 2.023 2.021 2.001 0.05 1.729 1.685 1.684 1.676 0.1 1.328 1.304 1.303 1.299

Let 2 () have a chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom: P 2 () > 2 () = 2 () 0.025 0.05 0.1 0.9 0.95 0.975 2 (2) 7.378 5.991 4.605 0.211 0.103 0.0506 2 (3) 9.348 7.815 6.251 0.584 0.352 0.216 2 (6) 14.449 12.592 10.645 2.204 1.635 1.237 Let F (1 , 2 ) have a F -distribution with 1 and 2 degrees of freedom: P (F (1 , 2 ) > F (1 , 2 )) = F (1 , 2 ) 0.025 0.05 0.1 0.9 0.95 0.975 F (19, 19) 2.53 2.16 1.82 0.54 0.46 0.39 F (20, 20) 2.46 2.12 1.79 0.56 0.47 0.41

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