You are on page 1of 14

Opening Bell

August 10, 2012 Key Points Market outlook Open flat to negative on negative Asian cues
18000 17500 17000

Index Movement (past 5 days)


5600 5400 5200 5000 1-Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug

Negative Weak Chinese industrial output data Market Outlook The Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative on negative Asian cues. The domestic markets edged lower on Thursday after data showed that Indias industrial output shrank by 1.8% in June, marking the third decline in four months, due to a sharp contraction in manufacturing production and lower growth in the agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the government said it would reassess the fiscal deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for the current fiscal year after a midyear review of the economy. The Sensex fell by 39.7 points or 0.2% to 17560.9 while the Nifty declined to 5323.0, down 15.1 points or 0.3%. The Sensex has supports at 17500 and 17420 and resistances at 17630 and 17740. The Nifty spot has supports at 5290 and 5260 and resistances at 5350 and 5380

16500 16000

BSE (RHS)

NSE (LHS)

Institutional Activity
09-Aug-2012 Net flows (| cr) FIIs 337.1 DIIs -754.4

Whats moving Nifty (top 3)


7.0 6.0 2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -10.0 ITC Ltd. HUL HDFC Bank Bharti Airtel SBI HDFC 3.7 3.3 -6.7 -7.6 -6.7

Advances/Declines
hghghh

The US markets closed nearly flat on Thursday for a second consecutive day. The choppy trading on Wall Street came as traders expressed continued uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets following recent strength. At the same time, some upbeat economic data helped to keep traders from cashing in on recent gains, with a report showing an unexpected drop in weekly jobless claims. A separate report showed that the US trade deficit narrowed to $42.9 billion in June from $48.0 billion in May. While the Dow edged down 10.5 points or 0.1% to 13,165.2, the Nasdaq rose 7.4 points or 0.3% to 3,018.6 and the S&P 500 crept up 0.6 points to 1,402.8

Adv. BSE NSE Total 1166 492 1658

% 40.0 31.6 39.0

Dec. 1613 982 2595

% 55 63.2 61.0

Unch. 137 81 101

Total 2916 1555 4253

News: Punj Lloyd, Infosys What's Inside


Result Update - Bharti Airtel Result Update - Mahindra & Mahindra

ADRs ($)
Price HDFC Bank Dr Reddys Labs Tata Motors ICICI Bank Infosys Wipro MTNL
.

Markets
Change 0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 change (%) 0.1 -0.7 -3.6 -0.4 0.3 0.2 2.5 35.3 29.9 21.3 35.0 41.6 8.1 1.2
Sensex Nifty Close 17560.9 5322.95 Previous 17600.6 5338.0 Change -39.7 -15.1 Chg(%) -0.2 -0.3 MTD(%) 0.3 0.5 YTD(%) 13.2 14.7 PE (1yr fwd) 14.2 13.7

SGX Nifty US Dow Jones Nasdaq S&P

5353.0 13165.2 3018.6 1402.8

5358.0 13175.6 3011.3 1402.2

-5.0 -10.4 7.4 0.6

-0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3

15.4 7.5 15.9 11.5 12.7

Asia Nikkei Kospi Shanghai


Europe France Germany U.K.

8925.3 1939.7 2174.06


3456.7 6965.0 5851.5

8978.6 1940.6 2174.1


3438.3 6966.2 5845.9

-53.3 -0.9 0.0


18.5 -1.2 5.6

-0.6 0.0 0.0


0.5 0.0 0.1

3.3 3.1

5.4 5.4 -1.2

8.8

18.1 6.2

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Technical Outlook August 10, 2012 We said, "Positive options remain stalled until the Index closes above 17664." The Index opened higher but failed to move above the previous candle. Up 103 points initially, it shaved off all gains and ended 40 points or 0.2% lower. While most sectors finished flat to negative, FMCG gained 1.4% and Oil & Gas lost 1%. The A/D ratio remained negative 1:2. The action formed a Bear candle, indicating further reaction away from the upper end of the channel. The bias would be negative if it weakens further below the candle, which could test the lower end of the channel. However, if the trend is strong, the reaction should not last for more than two or three day. Hence, watch if it holds the lower levels of 17450-500.

Pivot Points
Index/Stocks SENSEX NIFTY ACC ANDHRA BANK ARVIND NSE BAJAJ-AUTO BALAJI TELE BOB BOI BEL BPCL BHEL Canara Bank Century CIPLA DR.REDDY'S LAB. GAIL GEOMETRIC Close 17560.87 5322.95 1338.85 95.65 69.10 1691.15 41.60 645.45 279.95 1261.30 340.30 231.30 352.00 317.65 351.95 1649.35 369.05 104.75 S1 17484.25 5300.75 1331.20 93.55 67.90 1692.35 40.95 638.85 276.65 1251.15 334.65 227.50 346.75 315.70 351.85 1640.25 369.10 103.90 S2 17448.25 5289.10 1325.75 93.10 67.40 1685.00 40.25 637.10 274.70 1237.65 331.40 226.35 345.00 311.85 350.75 1633.90 367.30 101.80 R1 17577.25 5328.70 1340.05 96.35 69.35 1707.05 41.90 648.20 280.65 1263.40 342.45 231.40 353.60 323.35 354.10 1651.70 372.70 108.05 R2 17623.75 5342.70 1344.50 97.75 70.10 1714.90 42.35 652.85 282.60 1269.55 346.40 233.35 357.05 324.95 355.35 1657.45 376.95 109.80 Trend -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve +ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve +ve +ve -ve +ve +ve

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Result Update
August 9, 2012
Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Strong Buy | 385 12 months 40%

Bharti Airtel (BHATE)


| 274
WHATS CHANGED
PRICE TARGET....................................................................... Changed from | 420 to | 385

Key Financials
| Crore Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (|) FY11 59,467 19,960.8 6,046.8 15.9 FY12 71,450.8 23,657.3 4,259.4 11.2 FY13E 80,465.1 24,838.0 3,888.2 10.2 FY14E 88,727.4 28,960.1 6,444.5 17.0

EPS (FY13E)......................................................................... Changed from | 14.8 to | 10.2 EPS (FY14E)......................................................................... Changed from | 21.4 to | 17.0 RATING...............................................................................................................Unchanged

Valuation summary
P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW (%) RoCE (%) FY11 17.2 24.2 8.2 2.1 12.4 8.6 FY12 24.5 34.4 7.2 2.1 8.4 8.4 FY13E 26.8 37.6 6.7 1.9 7.2 7.8 FY14E 16.2 22.7 5.4 1.7 10.7 10.5

Muted margins! May continue for near term


Bharti Airtels Q1FY13 estimates were far lower than our estimates. The topline stood at | 19350.1 crore, against our expectation of | 19561.5 crore, growing 3.3% QoQ. However, the EBITDA margin declined 306 bps YoY at 30.2% against our expectation of 33.1%, resulting in a QoQ degrowth in EBITDA to | 5836.9 crore versus our expectation of 6477.0 crore. The management attributed this to higher marketing expenses and network operating cost to counter competition and focus on gaining revenue market share at the cost of profitability. Both of these expenses may remain at higher levels in the near future. Consequently, PAT declined 24.2% QoQ to | 762.2 crore, way below our estimate of | 1253.4 crore. PAT was partly aided by forex gain of | 160 crore. In light of recent change in strategy, we downgrade our EPS estimates by 30.7% and 20.5% for FY13E and FY14E. We maintain STRONG BUY with a target price of | 385. We advice our clients to average at lower levels. Focus on revenue share to impact margins Though the revenue missed our estimates by a small margin, the EBITDA and PAT were far lower than expectation. The management has re-visited its strategy and would now focus on gaining revenue market share. We believe, this would come at higher cost, and the promotional expenses (advertisements, promotions and commissions) may stay at elevated levels in the near future. The company has also commissioned more cell sites in Q1FY13 than in whole of FY12. This is attributed to improving 2G and 3G coverage, in addition to 4G rollout. Rationality will return post auctions The stock may remain subdued in the near term owing to margin pressures and regulatory overhangs. However, we strongly believe, once the 2G auction happens, rationality will prevail and cost of revenues may come down. We advice our clients to stay invested, and average their holdings at |250 260 levels. We advice averaging in a staggered manner as the margin pain may sustain in the near future. We revise our target price downwards to | 385 and maintain STRONG BUY.
Exhibit 1: Valuation Metrics
(| Crore) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Reported PAT EPS (|) Q1FY13 19350.1 5836.9 30.2 3757.1 821.1 11.8 762.2 2.0 Q1FY13E 19561.5 6477.0 33.1 3539.3 1181.7 30.0 1253.4 3.3 Q1FY12 16974.9 5698.0 33.6 3131.4 855.0 7.9 1215.2 3.2 Q4FY12 18729.4 6223.5 33.2 3468.3 1057.2 9.4 1005.9 2.6 QoQ (Chg %) 3.3 -6.2 -306 bps 8.3 -22.3 25.5 -24.2 -24.2 YoY (Chg %) 14.0 2.4 -340 bps 20.0 -4.0 49.4 -37.3 -37.3

Stock data
Market Capitalization (| Crore) Total Debt (FY12) (| Crore) Cash and Investments (FY12) (| Crore) EV (| Crore) 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value MF Holding (%) FII Holding (%) 104,156.4 69,023.2 3,843.2 169,336.4 409 / 274 | 1898.2 Crore |5 8.2 16.9

Price movement
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Aug-12

Analysts name
Karan Mittal karan.mittal@icicisecurities.com Anil Shenoy anil.shenoy@icicisecurities.com

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Result Update
August 9, 2012
Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Buy | 824 12 months 14 %

Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHMAH)


| 723
WHATS CHANGED
PRICE TARGET......................................................................... Changed from |714 to |824
FY13E 40,149.0 4,945.0 3,190.5 48.7 FY14E 44,629.5 5,820.0 3,755.3 57.3

Key Financials
| Crore FY11 Net Sales 23,042 EBITDA 3,454.3 Net Profit 2,662.1 DEPS (|)* 40.6 DEPS ~ Diluted EPS FY12 31,392.0 3,770.7 2,878.9 43.9

EPS (FY13E)......................................................................... Changed from | 45.6 to | 48.7 EPS (FY14E)......................................................................... Changed from | 52.0 to | 57.3 RATING.....................................................................................Changed from HOLD to BUY

Performance noteworthy; trounces estimates


Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) reported a strong set of Q1FY13 numbers with topline (| 9367.4 crore) and bottom-line (| 725.6 crore) growth better than street estimates. This was due to better product mix (higher ASPs) in the automotive segment and marginal price hikes in tractor business with lower discounting. EBIDTA margins at 11.8% were better than estimates. The management has guided a flat growth rate for the tractor segment in FY13E. However, the outlook on the automotive segment has been positive with new product launches scheduled and newer export markets targeted. In view of higher topline growth potential and imminent margin improvement, we enhance our estimates and upgrade our rating to BUY. Exceptional performance.Higher topline/improving margins M&Ms topline growth (40% YoY) has been engineered by higher UV and pickup truck sales in the automotive segment and steady tractor sales at ~59,600 units for Q1. With better pricing and lower employee and other expense ratios, the margins have improved sequentially by 150 bps. PAT at ~| 725 crores was also better than estimates. Going forward, topline and margins appear to have sufficient headroom for improvement. Worst is nearly behind us We believe the worst is behind for the FES segment, thereby ending the year-long period of underperformance. We expect volumes would be better aided by the low base of H2FY12. A better than expected monsoon might help the Rabi crop and generate additional demand post H1FY13E. The XUV-led utility vehicle portfolio coupled with new Verito launch would help the auto segment to post higher revenues and margins. Valuations supportive Surely BUY time has come! The automotive segment is likely to continue on a fast-pace growth with demand for diesel vehicles likely to sustain. Resilience of the tractor segment is evident with limited downside visibility. SsangYong Motors has turned EBIT positive in this quarter, with increased market share. Other subsidiaries are also expected to do well in the coming quarters. We, thus, upgrade our rating on the stock to BUY due to favourable valuations. We have valued M&M on an SOTP basis with the standalone business valued at a price of | 583/share and subsidiaries (listed/unlisted) valued at | 241/share arriving at a target price of | 824/share.
Exhibit 1: Financial performance
(| Crore) Total Op. Income EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Reported PAT Q1FY13 9367.4 1109.4 11.8 154.8 46.0 725.6 Q1FY13E 8822.5 994.6 11.3 151.0 35.9 632.8 Q1FY12 6727.1 895.4 13.3 109.9 26.2 604.9 Q4FY12 9387.2 969.4 10.3 199.7 70.9 874.5 14.9 QoQ (Chg %) -0.2 14.4 152 bps -22.5 -35.1 -17.0 -17.3 YoY (Chg %) 39.2 23.9 -147 bps 40.9 75.4 20.0 19.5

Valuation summary
P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW RoCE FY11 14.4 18.2 11.5 3.7 25.8 23.9 FY12 13.3 16.8 10.6 3.1 23.7 20.3 FY13E 12.1 15.2 7.9 2.7 22.0 22.0 FY14E 10.2 12.9 6.4 2.2 21.6 22.5

Stock data
Market Capitalization (| crore) Total Debt (FY12) (| crore) Cash (FY12) (| crore) EV (| crore) 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value MF Holding (%) FII Holding (%) 38,483.9 3,580.8 1,188.5 40,876.2 877 / 621 294.7 |5 20.0 27.6

Price movement
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Aug-11 Nov-11
Price (R.H.S)

950 850 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 Feb-12 May-12
Nifty (L.H.S)

Aug-12

Analysts name
Nishant Vass nishant.vass@icicsecurtities.com Venil Shah venil.shah@icicisecurities.com

EPS (|) 12.3 10.7 10.3 Source: Company press release, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Derivative Statistics
India VIX Open 16.4 High 16.8 Low 16.0 Current 16.3 Previous 16.4 Change (%) -0.2

Nifty / India VIX


40 5323.0 30 20 10 0 Aug-11 Nov-11 Mar-11 May-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 16.3 3500 2500 1500 % 5500 4500 6500

VIX Close

NIFTY Close (RHS)

Trading activity in capital markets (in | crore)


BSE - Institutional turnover FII DII Total 2,273 990 3263 1,936 1,744 3680 337 -754 -417

Bulk/ Block Deal August 9, 2012


1

Company BSE Mahindra Forgings NSE Kingfisher Airlines Source: NSE & BSE,

Client Name Amforge Industries Ltd. LKP Merchant Financing Ltd

Type Buy Sell

No. of shares 500,000 5,100,000

Price (|) 55.0 8.5

Result preview
Company Apollo Hospital BPCL Sun Pharma Lovable Lingerie Hathway Cable SCI Bharat Forge Revenue Q1FY13E 770.0 62,925.3 2,301.5 54.7 142.3 980.5 958.3 Change(%) YoY 20.1 36.4 38.6 16.5 16.1 0.8 11.7 QoQ 3.4 -2.7 -1.5 186.5 5.0 -5.6 -1.9 EBITDA Q1FY13E 129.7 -1,101.7 917.6 10.4 25.8 49.0 240.9 Change(%) YoY 22.5 NA 67.7 17.2 34.8 -58.5 15.6 QoQ 8.1 -4.7 398.9 10.8 LP -4.0 PAT Q1FY13E 64.9 694.9 8.2 -7.2 -185.0 109.7 Change(%) YoY 26.4 NA 38.7 17.4 NA NA 12.6 QoQ 9.4 PL -15.3 26.1 NA NA 99.0

PL -1,545.8

Company SBI

NII Q1FY13E 11,337.9

Change(%) YoY 16.9 QoQ -3.1

PPP Q1FY13E 8,974.6

Change(%) YoY 23.9 QoQ -6.5

PAT Q1FY13E 3,488.6

Change(%) YoY 120.3 QoQ -13.9

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Currencies EURO GBP YEN AUD CAD CHF

Close 1.23 1.56 78.58 1.06 0.99 0.98

Pre. 1m 1.24 1.57 78.51 1.06 0.99 0.97 55.42 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.13

Change 3m 6m 0.01 -0.02 -0.07 0.01 -0.06 0.07 0.01 0.80 0.02 0.02 0.05 5.78 -1.15 -0.82 -0.19 -0.03 -0.04

Economic Indicators |/$


58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 Nov-11 Oct-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Dec-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jun-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 55.27

INR 55.27 With base currency US$

The rupee on Thursday pared some gains on weak June IIP data but managed to end 15 paisa higher at 55.27 against the dollar on sustained capital inflows

Source: Reuters

WPI Inflation (%)

11
Inflation for June 2012 came in at 7.25% surprising positively as the market had estimated it at 7.6%. Primary articles inflation continues to be in double digits while fuel came in lower at 10.74% against 11.53% (May 2012). Manufactured goods stayed flat at 5%

9 7.25 7

5 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jun-11 Jun-12 Feb-12 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jun-12 May-12 Jul-12

Source: Reuters

G sec yield (%)


9.1 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.0
Aug-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Jul-11 Mar-12 Apr-12

1 Year
Source: Reuters

2 Year

5 Year

10 Year

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Commodities Crude Oil ($/barrel)


110
Crude edged higher on Thursday along side equities after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly dropped .

100 90 80 70 60
Aug-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Jun-12 7534 8000 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Sep-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12

93.4

Source: Reuters

Gold ($/Ounce)
2000 1800
Gold rose on Thursday as slowing growth in China's factory output mildly boosted investor hopes of more monetary stimulus from one of the world's top economic engines, which could boost demand for bullion .

1600 1400 1200 1000


Aug-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Sep-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12

1617.1

Source: Reuters

Copper ($/tonne)
9500

Copper was nearly flat on Thursday, finishing with slight gains as investors weighed speculation that China may take steps to support growth against pressure from a sharply higher US dollar

6500 Aug-11 Oct-11 Aug-12 Dec-11 Jun-12 Feb-12 Apr-12

Source: Reuters

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Market Indicators Fund activity (for past five trading sessions in | crore)
1200 600 209 0 -600 -1200 FII 3-Aug-12
Source: BSE

1114 816 556 337 -4 55

-435 -795 DII 6-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 8-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 -754

Turnover analysis (in | crore)


1999 11263 1980 103051

9-Aug

8-Aug

11348 115863

7-Aug

1889 9862 110641 40,000 BSE Cash 60,000 NSE Cash 80,000 100,000 NSE Derivative 120,000 140,000

20,000

Source: Reuters, NSE

Sector Statistics
Sector Capital Goods IT FMCG Metals Oil & Gas PSU Banks Mid Cap BSE100 Healthcare Auto BSE Small Cap Consumer Durables Real Estate Source: Reuters, BSE Close 9884.9 5470.3 5118.0 10444.8 8375.2 7191.6 12076.1 6114.2 5326.4 7315.9 9441.0 6595.9 6392.5 1650.2 Previous 9945.6 5450.0 5099.8 10361.3 7642.0 7133.1 12141.7 6126.3 5329.8 7309.6 9328.7 6620.8 6409.1 1684.0 Change -60.7 20.3 18.2 83.4 733.2 58.6 -65.5 -12.1 -3.3 6.3 112.3 -24.9 -16.6 -33.9 % Change -0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 9.6 0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 1.2 -0.4 -0.3 -2.0 Volume 4950 836 1523 4055 1615 13527 2040 81625 43476 2171 3292 58364 1393 17805

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

News & Views Punj Lloyd has said it has bagged a | 330-crore order from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas for process facilities & utilities at an upcoming crude oil storage cavern. The project, located near Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, is scheduled to be completed within a period of 29 months. Infosys has been selected by the Department of Posts for its | 700 crore project to help India Post transform its banking and insurance operations cross 1,50,000 post offices in the country. Under the agreement, Infosys and India Post will embark on a transformational initiative, which encompasses financial services system integration.
Domestic Events Calendar (August 6, 2012 August 10, 2012) Date 9-Aug Event Industrial Production YoY (Jun)

Global Events Calendar (August 6, 2012 August 10, 2012) Date 7-Aug 8-Aug 8-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 10-Aug Event Consumer Credit - US MBA Mortgage Applications - US EIA Crude Oil Inventory (Barrels) - US Monthly Budget Statement - US OPEC Oil Market Report - US Trade Balance - US Exports & Imports - US Initial Jobless Claims - US Continuing Claims - US Wholesale Sales (M-o-M) & (Y-O-Y) - US IEA Oil Market Report - US Import Price Index (Y-o-Y) & (M-o-M) - US

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Result Calendar (July 2012)


Mon 30 July n Indoco Remedies, Subros, Indian Overseas Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Bank of Baroda, Syndicate Bank, GAIL, Kansai Nerolac, Dhampur Sugar, JK Tyres, Bharat Electricals, Havells India, Spice Jet 6 August Cadila Healthcare, SAIL, Escorts, Mangalam Cement Sanghvi Movers, DLF, Balkrishna Industries, PTC India, Aditya Birla Nuvo, BEML, Britannia Industries Tue 31 July Shoppers Stop, Titan Industries, Ipca Laboratories, IDBI, Cipla, JP Associates, OnMobile, Petronet LNG, Usha Martin, GTL, Hexaware Tech, KEC International, Bhushan Steel Wed 1 August PVR, Federal Bank, Orient Paper, Adani Power, Engineers India, JP Infratech Thurs 2 August Satyam, Berger Paints, Glenmark pharma, Hotel Leela Fri 3 August Marico, Graphite India, Sun TV Network, City Union Bank, Jet Air India, Moser Baer, Abbott India, BGR Energy Sat 4 August Godrej Consumer, JK Cement, Divis Laboratories, Kalpataru Power

7 August Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, Allcargo, Sobha developers, NHPC, Balrampur Chini, Bombay Dyeing, Great Offshore, Punj Lloyd, Tata Chemicals

8 August M&M, Bharti Airtel, HEG Ltd, JBF Industries, Maharashtra Seamless, Pantaloon Retail, Oil India, GVK Power, Tata Power, Navneet Publications, Aban Offshore, Indian Hotels, Global offshore

9 August Ranbaxy Laboratories, Apollo Tyres, GMR Infra, Eicher Motors, Motherson Sumi, Tech Mahindra, GSPL, IOC,HPCL, NCC, Elder Pharma, Adani Enterprises, Great Eastern Shipping, Jindal Stainless, Tata Motors

10 August Apollo Hospital, BPCL, SBI, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Lovable Lingerie, Hathway Cable, Bharat Forge, Shipping Corporation of India, Siemens

11 August ONGC, Natco Pharma, Reliance Capital , Reliance Communication, Gitanjali Gems, Godrej Industries, Gujarat NRE Coke, Reliance Media

13 August India Cement, Tata Steel, Entertainment Network, Lanco Infra, Alok Industries, Unity Infra, Orbit Corp

14 August Hindalco, IDFC, Amara Raja batteries, Pipavav Defence & Offshore Engineering Ltd, Mercator Ltd, Simplex Infra, Supreme Infra, Shree Renuka Sugars, Bajaj Hindusthan, Gateway Distriparks, ABG Shipyard, Tulip Telecom

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

Rating Changes ICICIdirect.com Universe


Date 8-Aug-12 8-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 6-Aug-12 2-Aug-12 1-Aug-12 1-Aug-12 1-Aug-12 1-Aug-12 31-Jul-12 31-Jul-12 31-Jul-12 30-Jul-12 27-Jul-12 25-Jul-12 25-Jul-12 25-Jul-12 24-Jul-12 24-Jul-12 24-Jul-12 20-Jul-12 17-Jul-12 12-Jul-12 6-Jul-12 2-Jul-12 25-Jun-12 07-Jun-12 06-Jun-12 05-Jun-12 04-Jun-12 04-Jun-12 04-Jun-12 04-Jun-12 01-Jun-12 01-Jun-12 Company Aurobindo Pharma Mahindra & Mahindra BGR Energy Sanghvi Movers Balkrishna Industries Jet Airways City Union Bank IDBI Bank Dhampur Sugar Mills Subros Indian Overseas Bank Jaiprakash Associates CESC Sterlite Technologies Sun TV IRB Infrastructure Jagran Prakashan Power Grid Corporation Kewal Kiran Clothing Torrent Pharmaceuticals Pantaloon Retail (India) Dabur Praj Industries Dish TV Exide Industries Bharti Airtel GMR Infra ITC Limited Pantaloon Retail (India) ABG Shipyard From Buy Hold Buy Buy Hold Hold Hold Buy Hold Buy Buy Hold Hold Sell Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Sell Buy Buy Buy Hold Buy Buy Buy Hold Hold To Hold Buy Hold Hold Buy Buy Buy Hold Buy Hold Hold Buy Buy Hold Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Hold Hold Hold Buy Strong buy Hold Hold Sell Buy Hold Buy Hold Buy Sell Buy Hold Buy R.P.* 110 723 282 95 279 375 53 87 77 29 72 76 290 33 257 121 89 111 505 665 175 118 56 71 132 306 23 250 182 377 81 20 122 138 69 249 3036 85 T.P.* 110 824 302 101 346 440 60 95 66 31 79 84 324 31 300 141 98 123 611 746 248 120 58 75 149 420 26 270 148 432 87 23 118 155 79 281 3125 94

Pipavav Defence & Offshore Engineering Company Buy GMR Infrastructure Hold Jindal SAW Gateway Distriparks Tulip Telecom Indraprastha Gas Page Industries Jayshree Tea Buy Hold Hold Hold Buy Hold

*RP- Recommended Price *TP- Target Price

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

Recent Releases ICICIdirect.com Universe


9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 9-Aug-12 8-Aug-12 8-Aug-12 8-Aug-12 8-Aug-12 8-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 7-Aug-12 6-Aug-12 6-Aug-12 6-Aug-12 6-Aug-12 6-Aug-12 3-Aug-12 3-Aug-12 3-Aug-12 3-Aug-12 2-Aug-12 2-Aug-12 2-Aug-12 Result Update - Balrampur Chini Result Update - Mahindra & Mahindra Result Update - Bharti Airtel Result Update - Aurobindo Pharma Result Update - GVK Power Result Update - Indian Hotels Result Update - Pantaloon Retail Company Update - Larsen & Toubro Result Update - Tata Power Result Update - Oil India Ltd Result Update - Divi's Laboratories Result Update - JK Cement Result Update - Royal Orchid Hotels Result Update - NHPC Result Update - Sobha Developers Result Update - Balkrishna Industries Result Update - East India Hotels Result Update - Marico Result Update - Sanghvi Movers Result Update - Escorts Result Update - Kalpataru Power Transmission Result Update - Cadila Healthcare Result Update - Steel Authority of India Result Update - Sadbhav Engineering Result Update - BGR Energy Result Update - Jet Airways Result Update - Mangalam Cement Result Update - Sun TV Result Update - Usha Martin Result Update - City Union Bank Sector Update - Telecom Result Update - Graphite India Result Update - Mahindra Satyam Result Update - Glenmark Pharma Result Update - Federal Bank Result Update - PVR Limited Result Update - NTPC Result Update - Shoppers Stop Result Update - Jyoti Structures

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 10

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Ltd (I-Sec). The author may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. I-Sec may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This report may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. ISec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. I-Sec may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject I-Sec and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 11

Research Product Basket


Research Perspective Product Pre-market view & Recommendation
Daily comprehensive snapshot containing information & in-depth analysis of Indian & US markets, major headlines, technical view, derivatives statistics, economic indicators, commodities, market indicators, domestic & global events. Features four stocks & Nifty view with a trading outlook for the day based on shortterm technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading strategy for a day in the futures & options segment based on news events, market trends, technical & other factors governing movements in stocks. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Based on short-term technical trends and stock specific news/news expectations. Provides simplified derivative strategies such as spreads and covered calls

Frequency

Time frame

Avg. Returns objective

Location on ICICIdirect.com

Opening Bell

Pre-market open Daily

1 Day

Market Page, Trading PageScroller & iCLICK-2-GAIN

Daily Calls

Pre-market open Daily Pre-market open Daily

1 Day

2-3 %

Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page

Daily Derivative

1 Day

2-3 %

Intraday Recommendation BTST Calls Margin Calls Derivative Calls


Daily Daily Daily 1 2 Days 1 Days 1 2 Days 1 - 2% 1 - 2% 1 - 2% Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN iClick-2-Gain Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Trading Page

Derivative Strategies Weekly & Monthly recommendations Weekly Calls

Technical trends for a week considering key technical indicators & statistical information Features stocks with a trading outlook for a week based on short-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Trading opportunities in futures & options segment based on data analysis, overall market trend, volatility & open interest positions of securities. Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis along with statistical inputs. Derivatives outlook on global equity indices, currencies and commodities. Also, elaborating the likely impact on the Indian bourses. Trading outlook for a month based on medium-term technical trends considering key technical indicators & statistical information. Every week one stock on fundamental and/or technical parameters, which have the potential to appreciate by 10% in a three month timeframe Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers vis a vis index along with positional recommendation on Stocks/Nifty. Covers stocks, which are likely to show significant upward movement in the next 15 days due to change in trader sentiment. Fundamental report understanding the business model and future prospects of the company & valuations. A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large cap, midcap and diversified Features high dividend yielding stocks for assured returns on investment

Weekly

1-7 days

5%

Weekly Technicals

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Weekly Derivatives

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Market Trends

Monthly

30 days

Global Derivatives

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iClick-2-Invest

Monthly Technicals

Monthly

30 days

10%

Medium & Long term recommendations Pick of the week


Weekly every Friday 3 months 20% Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN > 7-15 days > 1 year 5 7% > 20% & above Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN Research page-We Recommend, Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN & iClick-2-Invest Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain

Positional Derivatives Stocks on the move Detailed Company Report Equity Model Portfolio High Dividend Yield Stocks

Fortnightly Fortnightly every alternate Wednesday When published

Quarterly