You are on page 1of 56

www.zaluu.

com
www.zaluu.com

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


-
-
-
-

-
-
,
-
-
-

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-

-

,

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

?


.

.

.: ,
, , .

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


-
-
-
-

-
-

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


.
(risk analisys )

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com




, ,
, ,


. 3
.
1.
2.
3.

www.zaluu.com

www.zaluu.com
-



,

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-


,
,

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
-



1956

1968





50
.

-
www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

,

-

.


.

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-



.:
-
-
-
-
-
-
- .

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


,
, ,
1,2 -
.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

1-

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

. 2

1-

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

2-

.:

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com



.


.
.
3-
.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


.3


/./

/%/

327,148,635

,290,040.5

0.7

456,869,514

3,198,122

0.7

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

.4.

/1 /

32,472.0

2,706,000

24120

289440

8%

97,144.8

8,095,400

2-3

2125028950

255000347400

3%3.5%

261,025.
0

21,752,08
3

8-10

7672081250

920640975000

3.5%3.8%

63,878.9

5,323,241

7500

90000

1.4%

14,485.1

1,207,091

4-5

21502670

2580032040

1.7%2.2%

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com




.
1
1,675,380 .
5- .

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

.5


//

289440

347400

975000

90000

32040
1,675,380


1- .

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

1
5%

2%
17%

20%
56%

1. -17%
2.-20%
3.-56%
4. -5%
5. -2%

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


.6

32,472,000

97,144,800

779,328

0.8%

261,025,000

6,264,600

2.4%

63,878,900

14,485,100

869,106

0.6%

151,327,700

7,913,034

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-

.
.
: -
-
-
-
- .

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-

. 2

. 7- .

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

.7

(1)

(2)
1,580,880
1,657,380
1,733,880

(3)

(2)*(3)

(2)-x

((2)-x)2

(2)

()
((2)-x)2 * (3)

0.2
0.6
0.2

316176
994428
346776

-76500
0
76500

5,852,250.0
0
5,852,250.0

1,170,450.0
0
1,170,450.0

2=2,340,900.0

=1,657,38
0
7,823,534
7,913,034
8,002,534

0.25
0.5
0.25

1,955,883
3,956,517
2,000,633
=7913034

=48382
-89500
0
89500

8,010,250.0
0
8,010,250.0

2,002,562
0
2,002,562
2=40,051,250.0

=63286

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com



.
1956

1968

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

- 2005 214,204.6
,1303.9
,102,047.2
. 1,312,313.2
.
2002
434.6 2
37% 22%-
.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
//

.8

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.89%

2.4%

5.1%

3.2%

3.6%

6.58%

5.1%

1.7%

2.5%

2.8%

25.24%

44.93
%

21.65%

25.98%

25.7%

10.69%

5.2%

7.6%

15.2%

16.3%

46.48%

32.7%

52.4%

45.4%

45.2%

10.12%

9.7%

11.7%

7.8%

6.4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com
.2,3,4,5,6-

5,10%

6,00%
5,00%

3,20%

4,00%

2,40%

3,00%
2,00%

3,60%

0,89%

1,00%
0,00%

2001

2002

2003
OH

2004

2005

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


7,00%

6,58%
5,10%

6,00%
5,00%
4,00%
3,00%

2,50%

2,80%

2004

2005

1,70%

2,00%
1,00%
0,00%

2001

2002

2003
OH

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

45,00%
40,00%
35,00%
30,00%
25,00%
20,00%
15,00%
10,00%
5,00%
0,00%

44.93%

25.98%

25.24%
21.65%

2001

2002

2003
OH

2004

25.70%

2005

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


18,00%
16,00%
14,00%
12,00%
10,00%
8,00%
6,00%
4,00%
2,00%
0,00%

15,20%

16,30%

10,68%
7,60%
5,20%

2001

2002

2003
OH

2004

2005

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com



.9
.

.

.9

2001

2002

2003

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

2004

6,965
.0

9%

6,230.
1

3%

32,28
5.6

55%

6,564.
8

13%

25,59
5.1

31%

105,0
66.0

54%

15,73
5.1

27%

12,979
.8

23%

0%

1,142.
4

1%

856.8

1%

2,952.
9

5%


//

0%

12,27
6.0

6%

10,29
8.4

17%

6,825.
7

12%

60%

70,54
7.1

36%

0%

26,330
.4

47%

47,87
5.4

80,43
5.5

195,2
61.6

59,17
5.9

55,653
.6

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-
,
3 .:
-
-
-

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


:
-

-

-

- www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

,

-

.:
-
-

-

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com



,
.:
1.
2.
3.
4.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

3 .
:


.

:
-
-
-
.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

1
9646914 -
.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


1000 -
1.
,

,

.
- 2001
.
180

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


2.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


:15

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

7.8%

2005

180000

14040

2006

180000

14040

45000

28080

73080

2007

135000

10530

45000

10530

55530

2008

90000

7020

45000

7020

52020

2009

45000

3510

45000

3510

48510

180000

49140

229140

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


.
1.
2.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


-



?
.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

2005
.

2001

2002

2003

2004

73470500 178536507 15735100 39310200


734705

535609

173086

275171

1%

0.3%

1.1%

0.7%

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

2005
:
1+0.3+1.1+0.7 / 4=0.77%
:
76763077*0.77%=59107569,2-

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

-

,
.
-

. : ,
, .

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com


.
:
1.

2.

3.

.

www.zaluu.com
www.zaluu.com

1 1,675,380 .

7,913,034 -
.
9,588,414 -
.