This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
ADI Fracking Neg 1.0 ..................................................................................................................................... 1 A2 Renewables Adv................................................................................................................................... 3 1NC Frontline ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Ext. – No Bridge ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Ext. – Warming Defense...................................................................................................................... 11 A2 Blackouts........................................................................................................................................ 12 A2 Resource Wars ............................................................................................................................... 13 A2 Econ Impact ................................................................................................................................... 15 A2 EU Adv................................................................................................................................................ 17 1NC Frontline ...................................................................................................................................... 18 A2 Russia Aggression Impact .............................................................................................................. 22 Ext. – No Solvency ............................................................................................................................... 24 Ext. Russia Turn ................................................................................................................................... 25 Solvency Hit............................................................................................................................................. 26 1NC Stuff ............................................................................................................................................. 27 A2 Energy Transition ........................................................................................................................... 28 A2 Econ/Market Args .......................................................................................................................... 29 Groundwater DA ..................................................................................................................................... 30 1NC ...................................................................................................................................................... 31 Link – Fracking causes methane contamination ................................................................................. 33 Link - Deep Earth Drilling .................................................................................................................... 34 Chemicals cause health problems....................................................................................................... 35 Chemicals destroy envrionment/health ............................................................................................. 36 Chemicals hurt infant health............................................................................................................... 38 Hill 12 .................................................................................................................................................. 38 New York City is at high risk ................................................................................................................ 39 Turns Case - Economy ......................................................................................................................... 40 A2: It takes thousands of years ........................................................................................................... 41 Mollusks = Keystone species ............................................................................................................... 42 Biodiversity Impact ............................................................................................................................. 43 Aff Answers ................................................................................................................................................. 44
No Contamination ............................................................................................................................... 45
A2 Renewables Adv
Too late for the natural gas bridge
Romm 2012 (Joe Romm, Fellow at American Progress, April 9, 2012, “Natural Gas Is A Bridge To Nowhere Absent A Carbon Price AND Strong Standards To Reduce Methane Leakage,” Think Progress, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/09/460384/natural-gas-is-a-bridge-to-nowhere-absent-acarbon-price-and-strong-standards-to-reduce-methane-leakage/) The concept of natural gas as a “bridge fuel” was pushed by the American Gas Association as far back as 1981. It’s the longest bridge in history! Heck, the Golden Gate Bridge only took 4 years to build! But the window where gas can be a major bridge fuel to a world with a livable climate appears to be almost completely closed, now. Had we acted back in the 1980s or even 1990s as climate scientists and world leaders had been urging, then, yes, an expansion of gas use might have made sense. The fact that natural gas is now a bridge fuel to nowhere was first shown by the International Energy Agency in its big June report on gas — see IEA’s “Golden Age of Gas Scenario” Leads to More Than 6°F Warming and Out-of-Control Climate Change. The IEA’s well-named GAG scenario assumes that not only does oil production peak in 2020 — but so does coal! Remember, warming beyond 6°F (3.5°C) is “incompatible with organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems & has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C [7F] would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level),” according to Professor Kevin Anderson, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change in Britain (see here). We would be self-destructively irrational to risk even 5°F warming. If your goal is a livable climate, we need to transition off of all fossil fuels ASAP.
Methane from fracking causes warming
Vergano 2009 (Dan Vergano is a science reporter and columnist at USA Today, where he has been on staff since 1999. Previous reporting stints were at Medical Tribune and HealthWeek, as well as the science intern slot at Science News, freelance work for Men's Health, New Scientist, Science, the Washington Post and others. Prior to his journalism career, Dan worked as a space policy analyst for a federally-funded research and development contract organization, “Methane's role in global warming underestimated” http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2009-10-29-methane-global-warming_N.htm) Greenhouse gas calculations blame carbon dioxide too much for global warming, and methane too little, suggest researchers Thursday. In the journal Science, a team led by Drew Shindell of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York finds that chemical interactions between greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide cause more global warming than previously estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other efforts. "The total amount of warming doesn't change, just the balance of gasses behind it," Shindell says. The world's climate warmed an average about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit from 1906 to 2005, very likely due to industrial greenhouse gases, the IPCC concluded in 2007, adding that carbon dioxide is "most important" greenhouse gas. Methane is a greenhouse gas produced by landfills, agriculture and some industries. In the study, Shindell and colleagues added chemical interactions between aerosols and greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon monoxide to a century-long model of climate change. They wanted to see the effects on each gas's "Global Warming Potential," or individual contribution to global warming. Methane played a bigger role than expected, suggesting that climate treaties such as the 1997 Kyoto Protocol need to consider it more carefully, the study says. Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, but retain heat in the atmosphere, raising global average temperatures. Burning fossil fuels, deforestation and other human activities have raised greenhouse gas levels to historic values in the last three centuries. "There is no
"getting priorities right on the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases has some real value. carbon dioxide would still comprise only a little over one tenth of one percent of the air we breathe.org/education/reports/prudentpath/prudentpath.pdf As presently constituted. for example. which is far less than what wafted through earth’s atmosphere eons ago.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial (levels) without focusing on BOTH carbon dioxide and non-carbon dioxide emissions. floods and hurricanes. earth’s atmosphere contains just slightly less than 400 ppm of the colorless and odorless gas we call carbon dioxide or CO2. In the case of the biospheric benefits of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. That’s only four-hundredths of one percent. and that they do it more efficiently." Assign warming zero percent probability – flawed models and predictions Craig D. "There needs to be a deal and. catastrophic sea level rise. Idso (president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) February 2011 “Carbon Dioxide and Earth’s Future Pursuing the Prudent Path” http://www. other than aggressive geoengineering." says MacCracken.co2science. If negotiations keep stalling on carbon dioxide emissions debate. in my view. In December. by email. On the international front.000 air-quality-related deaths annually according to the World Health Organization. a former Clintonadministration climate scientist. such as droughts. as well as dramatic increases in extreme weather phenomena." In the pages that follow." he says.could we correctly reduce them into manageable computer code so as to produce reliable forecasts 50 or 100 years into the future? Some people answer these questions in the affirmative. plants grow bigger and better in almost every conceivable way. as they have significantly enhanced the plant productivity and vegetative water use efficiency of earth's natural and agro-ecosystems. However. then "all of our efforts on the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases won’t make much difference.way. chemical and biological processes that combine to determine the state of earth’s climate into a set of mathematical equations out of which their forecasts are produced. Consequently. As strange as it may seem. floods and hurricanes that climate models suggest should occur in response to a global warming of the magnitude that was experienced by the earth over the past two centuries as it gradually recovered from the much-lower-than-present temperatures characteristic of the depths of the Little Ice Age. And other observations have shown that the rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with the development of the Industrial Revolution have actually been good for the planet. including dangerous global warming. reduced agricultural output. representatives of 192 nations head to Copenhagen to work on an international agreement to limit emissions." says Michael MacCracken of the Climate Institute. real-world observations fail to confirm essentially all of the alarming predictions of significant increases in the frequency and severity of droughts. Idso (founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) and Sherwood B. we present this oft-neglected evidence via a review of the pertinent scientific literature. as may be seen in the body of this report. when the planet was a virtual garden place. with respect to their utilization of valuable . to come close to meeting the world leaders’ goal of overall warming not exceeding (3. "This is not an either-or choice — we must do both to have any chance at all. China has about 750. we find that with more CO2 in the air. MacCracken and Shindell both suggest that politicians may embrace limiting those emissions in developing nations more quickly than carbon dioxide ones. Nevertheless. a small increase in this minuscule amount of CO2 is frequently predicted to produce a suite of dire environmental consequences. leading to a significant "greening of the earth. and the destruction of many natural ecosystems. But do we really know what all of those complex and interacting processes are? And even if we did -. even if the air's CO2 concentration was tripled. these frightening future scenarios are derived from a single source of information: the ever-evolving computer-driven climate models that presume to reduce the important physical. cutting non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases and soot can be a helpful bridge to getting an agreement.which we don't -." Because noncarbon dioxide gasses also cause air pollution.
that could well be involved in linking CO2 (or causing it not to be linked) to global temperature. http://www.com/article/20100810/OPINION02/8100310/Deaver-Cap-and-Trade-billnot-the-answer-to-global-warming Wait a minute! While it is true that there is general agreement that there is a greenhouse gas effect. First. There is only knowledge that over the past 150 years CO2 emissions generally and very roughly correspond to rising global temperatures. And even if the models eventually solve this part of the problem.especially in terms of predictions based on the behavior of a non-meteorological parameter (CO2) -. Second.at a rate that is claimed by many to have been unprecedented over the past one to two millennia -. there is no agreement about the importance of CO2.poses an important question. for it is well defined in terms of the small number of known factors likely to play a role in linking the independent variable (global warming) with the specified weather phenomena (droughts. in the case of climate model inadequacies. why should we believe what they say about something infinitely more complex (the effect of a rise in the air’s CO2 content on mean global air temperature)? Clearly.” 8/10/20 10 . today's climate models cannot correctly predict what should be relatively easy for them to correctly predict (the effect of global warming on extreme weather events). costly economic measures that might not do anything to alleviate the situation. “Deaver: Cap and Trade bill not the answer to global warming. on the other hand. and more effectively. there . we should still reserve judgment on their forecasts of global warming. for there will yet be a vast gulf between where they will be at that time and where they will have to go to be able to meet the much greater challenge to which they aspire No warming -A. floods and hurricanes). This suggests government programs such as Cap-and-Trade to deal with CO2 emissions. The Times Herald. And this fact -.physical. and no evidence of any corresponding increase in CO2 from other sources. Likewise. Greenland was green then. What should be easier to predict: the effects of global warming on extreme weather events or the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations on global temperature? The first part of this question should. Third.this report demonstrates that none of the environmental catastrophes that are predicted by climate alarmists to be produced by such a warming has ever come to pass. could fail to have any impact on global warming. The latter part of the question.that there have been no significant increases in either the frequency or severity of droughts. chemical and biological -. which is a tiny fraction of such gases. during the Middle Ages--from about the years 1000 to 1300--an abundance of evidence reveals a period of warming that probably exceeded that of the present period.until they can reproduce the climate of the past. If. floods or hurricanes over the past two centuries or more of global warming -. The main point is scientists do not have positive evidence either about future climate trends or the fundamental causes of climate change.thetimesherald. we should pay the models no heed in the matter of future climate -. Yet there was no industrial revolution to cause it. then. for there are many factors -. Not anthropogenic & historical data disproves. Here are some facts that should tell us to be cautious about introducing is no scientific proof that global warming is caused by CO2. is ill-defined and possibly even unanswerable. be answerable. so do all of the animals and people that depend upon them for their sustenance. And this exercise reveals that even though the world has warmed substantially over the past century or more -. there is a growing body of evidence. Deaver . in principle. while imposing huge costs in terms of jobs and slower economic growth. based on the behavior of one of the most basic of all true meteorological parameters (temperature). that reveal long-term temperature cycles associated with variations in the sun's radiation that could explain the recent warming. mainly from Arctic and Antarctic ice cores.natural resources. in the face of environmental constraints. we reveal their many shortcomings via a comparison of their "doom and gloom" predictions with real-world observations. And when plants benefit.
) Bottom line: Expect some surprises to come out of the revisions of the surface temperature records that will take place over the next couple of years. The Weekly Standard.B. Schwartz. but the media and the IPCC ignored them. and that he agrees that there has been no statistically significant global warming for the last 15 years—all three points that climate campaigners have been bitterly contesting. such as earlier arriving springs. Steven F. wrote February 24: “No one really believes that the ‘science is settled’ or that ‘the debate is over. I don’t believe the vast majority of climate scientists think this. Hayward .” what exactly do they mean. This is not my view. The IPCC downplays theories of variations in solar activity.” The Climategate emails and documents revealed the disarray in the surface temperature records the IPCC relies upon to validate its claim of 0. There is nothing more detrimental to public trust than such statements. temperature-magnifying) feedbacks from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. and what don’t they mean? Jones: It would be supposition on my behalf to know whether all scientists who say the debate is over are saying that for the same reason. corrupted by the “urban heat island effect. Joseph D’Aleo. and one by MIT’s Richard Lindzen and Yong-Sang Choi in Geophysical Research Letters. head of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech and one of the few scientists convinced of the potential for catastrophic global warming who is willing to engage skeptics seriously. 3-15-20 10 . such as sunspot activity and gamma ray bursts.S.” The next wave of climate revisionism is likely to reopen most of the central questions of “settled science” in the IPCC’s Working Group I. John Christy of the University of Alabama. available starting in 1979. The compilation and statistical treatment of global temperature records is hugely complex. The models the IPCC uses for projecting a 3 to 4 degree Celsius increase in temperature all assume large positive (that is. a contributing author to the IPCC’s Working Group I chapter on surface and atmospheric climate change. He received NASA’s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement for this work. both argue for vastly lower climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. but for the instrumental (and especially the palaeoclimatic) past as well [emphasis added]. Weyerhaeuser fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. or if compromised station records are excluded. Lindzen. tried to get the IPCC to acknowledge this anomaly in its 2007 report but was ignored. receding glaciers. Watts and D’Aleo have painstakingly documented (and in many cases photographed) the huge number of temperature stations that have been relocated.’ Scientists and others that say this seem to want to advance a particular agenda. Skeptics such as Anthony Watts. Department of Energy. airports.K. prompting a flood of renewed focus on the veracity and handling of surface temperature data. cloud formation. and although there is robust scientific literature on the issue. not just for the future. And Jones specifically disavowed the “science-is-settled” slogan: BBC: When scientists say “the debate on climate change is over.weeklystandard.” http://www. There is a glaring anomaly: The satellite records. or paved surfaces. There is still much that needs to be undertaken to reduce uncertainties. and Choi discern strong negative (or temperaturereducing) feedbacks in the climate system. A London Times headline last month summarizes the shocking revision currently underway: “World May Not Be Warming. The scientist at the center of the Climategate scandal at East Anglia University. but the skeptics such as Watts and D’Aleo offer compelling critiques showing that most of the reported warming disappears if different sets of temperature records are included. Their models are flawed & sats disprove. are considered. (Christy is responsible for helping to develop the satellite monitoring system that has tracked global temperatures since 1979. then what is causing plainly observable changes in the climate. one by Brookhaven Lab scientist Stephen Schwartz in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Several studies of Arctic warming conclude that changes in ocean currents. show very little warming since 1979 and do not match up with the ground-based measurements. suggesting an upper-bound of future temperature rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius. the satellite readings of the middle. as well as surface temperature series that are conveniently left out of the IPCC reconstructions and undercut the IPCC’s simplistic story of rising temperatures. Scientists Say. Furthermore. and wind patterns in the . The puzzle deepens when more accurate satellite temperature records. If the climate system is less sensitive to greenhouse gases than the climate campaign believes. starting with the data purporting to prove how much the Earth has warmed over the last century. Phil (“hide the decline”) Jones dealt the science-is-settled narrative a huge blow with his candid admission in a BBC interview that his surface temperature data are in such disarray they probably cannot be verified or replicated. buildings. ignored by the media and the IPCC alike. and each repetition of the “science-issettled” mantra inflicts more damage on the credibility of the climate science community. that the medieval warm period may have been as warm as today. which measure temperatures in the middle and upper atmosphere. F.and upper-air temperatures fail to record any of the increases the climate models say should be happening in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. even the skeptic community is divided about whether solar activity is a primary cause of recent climate variation. and Stephen McIntyre have been pointing out the defects in the surface temperature record for years.” or placed too close to heat sources such as air conditioning compressors. Judith Curry. Eventually the climate modeling community is going to have to reconsider the central question: Have the models the IPCC uses for its predictions of catastrophic warming overestimated the climate’s sensitivity to greenhouse gases? Two recently published studies funded by the U.8 degrees Celsius of human-caused warming. and shrinking Arctic Ocean ice caps? There have been alternative explanations in the scientific literature for several years.com/print/articles/denial This central pillar of the climate campaign is unlikely to survive much longer. “In Denial.
if the medieval warm period was indeed as warm or warmer than today. . Above all. but the compliant news media routinely ignored all of them. imperceptible to the naked eye but reducing the albedo (solar reflectivity) of Arctic ice masses enough to cause increased summertime ice melt. enabling the IPCC to get away with its serial exaggeration and blatant advocacy for more than a decade. Another factor in the Arctic is “black carbon”—essentially fine soot particles from coal-fired power plants and forest fires. we cannot rule out the possibility that the changes of recent decades are part of a natural rebound from the “Little Ice Age” that followed the medieval warm period and ended in the 19th century. Skeptics have known and tried to publicize all of these contrarian or confounding scientific findings.upper atmosphere may explain the retreat of glaciers and sea ice better than greenhouse gases.
February 6. So the only scenario I can see in which more gas makes sense is the one I laid out 3 years ago. needed to meet more ambitious policy targets.com/news/energy/2012/01/120117-shale-gas-boom-impact-onrenewables/) Shale gas has transformed the U. 2012. "Shale gas is a great advantage to the U. during this time we still push hard on efficiency and all forms of renewables to keep bringing them rapidly down the cost curve. in the short term. And the shale gas will retard the growth of renewable energy's share of electricity." Trades off with renewables Leggett 2012 (Martin Leggett. for the next few decades. If climate policy continues to play out in the United States with a relatively weak set of measures to control emissions. And. We have a rising price for carbon. A team of researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology used economic modeling to show that new abundant natural gas is likely to have a far more complex impact on the energy scene than is generally assumed. We have a short-term transition — lasting to about 2020 — to fill the existing underutilized gas-fired capacity and replace coal cheaply. "But it is so attractive that it threatens other energy sources we ultimately will need. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/09/460384/natural-gas-is-a-bridge-to-nowhere-absent-acarbon-price-and-strong-standards-to-reduce-methane-leakage/) Building lots of new gas plants simply doesn’t make much sense since we need to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the rate of growth of warming in the next few decades if we’re to have any chance to avoid catastrophic global warming. We only want an outcome.” Think Progress. the new gas source will lead to lower gas and electricity prices. leading GHG emissions to increase by 13 percent over 2005. lead author of the new study. the United States could have expected to see GHG emissions 2 percent below 2005 levels by 2050 under this relatively weak policy. But the lower gas prices under the current shale gas outlook will stimulate economic growth. by as long as two decades. Absent the shale supply.org/energy/shale-gas-boom-clean-bridge-nowhere/1810/) . BOTTOM LINE: If you want to have a serious chance at averting catastrophic global warming. Undercuts renewables expansion Inman 2012 (Mason Inman. then we need to start phasing out all fossil fuels as soon as possible. Natural gas isn’t a true bridge fuel from a climate perspective. Post-2020 it needs to be pretty much all carbon-free power. which doesn’t exist yet." said MIT economist Henry Jacoby. Fellow at American Progress. http://www.S. In this scenario. January 17. 2012. “Natural Gas Is A Bridge To Nowhere Absent A Carbon Price AND Strong Standards To Reduce Methane Leakage.nationalgeographic. 2012. That requires a carbon price. a new study warns. We don’t want new gas plants to displace new renewables.Ext. “Shale gas. of course. like solar and wind — since that would negate what little benefit switching from coal to gas might bring. “Shale Gas: A Boon That Could Stunt Alternatives. very few new natural gas plants are built. and total energy use will be higher in 2050. – No Bridge Complete phase-out of fossil fuels necessary now Romm 2012 (Joe Romm. where natural gas only replaces coal. energy landscape in the past several years—but it may crowd out renewable energy and other ways of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.” http://news. the 'clean bridge' to nowhere?” Earth Times. What this new study adds is that even this approach doesn’t make much sense without an additional effort to cut methane leaks sharply. April 9. Carbon-free power is the bridge fuel until we can figure out how to go carbon negative on a large scale by the end of the century.earthtimes. and push off the development of carbon capture and storage technology.S. Study Says.
such thinking has helped fuel a boom in drilling and fracking in the US over the last decade. to frack in ever more areas. from the Union of Concerned Scientists. And 'home-grown' shale gas has been marketed as a fuel that would guarantee energy security for decades. as well as spilling problems into water courses across the country. President Obama said 'the development of natural gas will create jobs and power trucks and factories that are cleaner and cheaper. has also left stocks of gas higher than ever. and the price drastically down. .' Whilst those clean credentials are debatable-in-the-extreme thanks to mainly the neglected impact of methane leakage. it is leaving the push to 'zero-carbon' renewables treading water.Renewables victims of hit-and-run: Shale gas has been a oft-touted 'clean bridge fuel to the future' recently. But the rush to pump out shale gas. for energy consumers. Part of the reason this is happening is that there's a sense that natural gas resources will be around forever. short-term. reserve numbers have swelled. 'We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years. Rachel Cleetus. when burnt to produce energy. As shale gas companies have competed for investment money. In his State of the Union address in January. in recognition of its relatively low CO2 output.' said President Obama.' Which may be far from the case. told the Washington Post last week that natural gas could 'take over the entire pie and crowd out renewables. proving that we don't have to choose between our environment and our economy. Whilst that is great news. That claim hasn't just come from the shale gas industry.
People mention the existence of Tipping Points and the Precautionary Principle and assume that that closes the conversation. without discussing the validity of using Tipping Points and the Precautionary Principle as guiding lights for how we should react. And this argument extends to the application of both concepts to climate change. tipping points and the precautionary principle” Environmental Policy Examiner. quantifying the type and amounts of WMD Hussein might realistically possess. They say that because we don't know where the tipping point really is and because we do not know the extent of damage that could be caused by a permanently warmer planet. in a Strangelovian way. . and well-educated and intelligent people on both sides of the fence. http://www. 2010. One of the best arguments against the Precautionary Principle is the error it led us into the last time it was used. the use of those terms is very Cheney-esque. What's important to understand about that is that Cheney was wrong. It may have been warmer than today during Medieval Times. One argument from skeptics is that the Earth has warmed before without reaching a Tipping Point. and that the Precautionary Principle mandated our intervention. the Precautionary Principle more or less compels us to take drastic action to fight climate change. From what I have seen in the popular media. For Cheney. this would have meant first. – Warming Defense No proof of tipping points – we’ve recovered from worse temp increases Thomas Fuller July 6. Then Vice President Dick Cheney argued that if there was even a 1% chance that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.com/environmental-policy-innational/global-warming-uncertainty-tipping-points-and-the-precautionary-principle Others are more optimistic.Ext. Hussein's realistic delivery options for WMD. not because Hussein didn't have WMD. and it certainly has been warmer for most of the period since the end of the last Ice Age. and his propensity to use them. And yet temperatures did eventually decline. In the more remote past. temperatures declined. There are solid philosophical arguments against both the Tipping Point and the Precautionary Principle. and say that if we act right now. temperatures were dramatically warmer during several periods. The problem is Cheney didn't do any of the math. If our society is paralysed by fear of the unknown. we can avoid crossing the line and making permanent changes. He was wrong in his application of logic. find the weapons and institute regime change. But pronouncing it doesn't make it so. but again. He merely pronounced that Hussein's possible possession of WMD meant that a Tipping Point had already been reached. Another argument is that if we rigorously applied the Precautionary Principle to poorly understood phenomena. There are opposing arguments to this. but really right now. Cheney would have used existing Pentagon scenarios to calculate the damage to life and the political framework of the Middle East if Husseing used these weapons and compared it very cold-bloodedly to the losses certain to result from our intervention. we would halt all technological progress and innovation. Second.What disturbs me is that we are willing to discuss in endless detail with incredible amounts of name-calling the causes and effects of global warming. then it was important to us to invade Iraq. “Global warming.examiner. we may reject the next invention that might dramatically improve our lives. uncertainty. The first step in dealing with this type of situation is reducing the uncertainty in your calculations.
optimal technologies software able to make nation’s power grid more secure” written by business editors/hightech and energy writers." New Tech solves.there is no way to stop them Fairley 2003 (Peter. operating error. has the unique ability to "see" the power grid as a whole and in great detail. founder and CEO of Optimal Technologies. it won't be the last. identify and direct system adjustments eliminating the congestion points. including automated recontrolling of key connections. and precise management of loads. as opposed to hours -. 17. Optimal's new Aempfast(TM) (pronounced aim-fast) software. "I would have said this one was overdue. and bioengineering at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.ieee. and reroute power -. http://findarticles.thereby avoiding blackouts and brownouts.or accident. professor of control and dynamical systems. zapping more total wattage and affecting more customers than any before.in seconds.org/print/4195) The 14 August 2003 blackout may have been the largest in history." agrees IEEE Fellow Vijay Vittal. now being tested. . “The Unruly Power Grid” http://www. an electrical engineering professor at Iowa State University in Ames. "There is no doubt about that. who is an expert on power system dynamics and control. rerouting of power flows. Spectrum magazine. or natural disaster -.multiple responses available to grid collapse Business Wire 2001 (Dec.A2 Blackouts Blackouts are inevitable.Optimal's tools could allow multiple responses to avoid grid collapse." "We will have major failures. and they'll keep happening. but if history is any guide. "These kinds of outages are consistent with historical statistics. Aempfast can swiftly find blockages in power flow." says John Doyle." said Roland Schoettle.spectrum.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2001_Dec_17/ai_80858553) Optimal Technologies announced this week the ability to improve national security with breakthrough electric power system technologies. electrical engineering. "This software is fundamental for electric power contingency planning and crisis management. If one part of a power grid were to fail due to intentional disruption -. “Innovative technologies can improve national security.
Third. 2006). yet most migration flows do not lead to conflict. there are many more counter-examples in which conflict never occurs. Nordås & Salehyan. Therefore. resource scarcity.5 Yet. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. and famine. In short. while a large refugee influx and population pressures led to localized conflict over natural resources. Bond & Bond (2007) show that. and. environmental conditions. Second. cannot predict violent outbreaks. and long-term climatic shifts are ubiquitous. Meier. while armed conflict is rare. population displacement.pdf First. Both of these studies emphasize the role of local dispute-resolution regimes and institutions – not just the response of central governments – in preventing resource conflicts from spinning out of control. states often bear responsibility for environmental degradation and resource shortfalls. Clearly. in this regard.6 although none of these countries have experienced fullblown civil war and state failure. 2006). some states will take the necessary steps to conserve water and . water scarcity. While interpersonal violence is more or less common and may intensify under resource pressures. Zambia. Large-scale migration has the potential to provoke conflict in receiving areas (see Reuveny. Martin’s analysis also points to the importance of international organizations. even if local skirmishes over access to resources arise.A2 Resource Wars No resource wars Idean Salehyan (Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas) May 2008 “From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet” Journal of Peace Research. environmental conditions have led to cattle raiding among pastoralists in East Africa. by themselves.org/files/resolver%20climate%20change%20and%20conflict. sustained armed conflict on a massive scale is difficult to conduct. even in the face of acute environmental scarcities. 45. 1999). in turn leading to civil war and ethnic cleansing. North Korea. coastal flooding. under certain circumstances. flooding. effective resource management regimes were able to ameliorate these tensions. notably the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. although caused by an oceanic earthquake. but it did not trigger new wars in Southeast Asia. in implementing effective policies governing refugee camps. Faced with global warming. Nobel Prizewinning economist Amartya Sen finds that. the deterministic view has poor predictive power as to where and when conflicts will break out. countries with democratic institutions and press freedoms work to prevent famine because such states are accountable to their citizens (Sen. vol. the Comoros. However. food scarcity and hunger are problems endemic to many countries – particularly in sub-Saharan Africa – but similar problems elsewhere have not led to large-scale violence. The Asian Tsunami of 2004. Hurricanes. therefore. Others have similarly shown a strong relationship between democracy and protection of the environment (Li & Reuveny. 2007. Martin (2005) presents evidence from Ethiopia that. and droughts – which are all likely to intensify as the climate warms – are frequent occurrences which rarely lead to violence. local hostilities need not escalate to serious armed conflict and can be managed if there is the political will to do so. either through their own projects and initiatives or through neglect of the environment. But popular accounts typically do not look at the dogs that do not bark. and Tanzania. 3 http://emergingsustainability. led to severe loss of life and property. these do not always escalate to open warfare and state collapse. food shortages and malnutrition affect more than a third of the population in Malawi. 2007). and resource scarcity. Darfur is frequently cited as a case where desertification led to food scarcity. climate change itself is an exogenous stressor beyond the control of individual governments. For every potential example of an environmental catastrophe or resource shortfall that leads to violence. no. natural disasters. but these conflicts rarely escalate to sustained violence. government policies and neglect can compound the effects of climate change. Salehyan & Gleditsch. social integration and citizenship policies are particularly important (Gleditsch.
leaving fewer resources to bargain over. and shift to less climate-sensitive livelihoods. and protracted civil wars can have devastating effects on the economy and the natural environment.land. personal. organized violence is inefficient at the individual level. Thus. the redistribution of economic resources and political power. although many journalists and policymakers have focused on the potential for warfare. or smallscale coping strategies. and develop disaster-warning and response systems. Others will do little to respond to this threat. But. . Thus. democracy – or. rebellion does not distribute resources by itself. armed violence against the state is used as a means to gain leverage over governments so as to gain some form of accommodation. Engaging in armed rebellion is quite costly and risky and requires large-scale collective action. accountable political leaders – at all levels of government – are more likely to listen to citizen demands for greater access to resources and the means to secure their livelihoods. among other adaptation mechanisms. Responsive. Individuals and households are more likely to engage in simpler. redistribute resources to those who need them most. more precisely. more importantly. violent conflict is an inefficient and sub-optimal reaction to changes in the environment and resource scarcities. As environmental conditions change. the accountability of political leaders to their publics – is likely to be a critical determinant of how states respond to the challenge. several possible responses are available. While a state’s level of income and technological capacity are certainly important. organized violence is inefficient at the collective level. develop conservation strategies. Political sensitivity to peaceful action can immunize states from armed insurrection. Fourth. Organized armed violence rarely (if ever) arises spontaneously but is usually pursued when people perceive their government to be unwilling to listen to peaceful petitions. As mentioned above. Individuals can migrate internally or across borders. or they can invest in technological improvements. namely.
we see a most familiar picture: the usual mix of civil conflicts.a process wholly unrelated to global economic trends. the usual military exercises with allies across Asia. mixing it up with pirates off Somalia's coast). the blogosphere was ablaze with all sorts of scary predictions of. * No great improvement or disruption in great-power cooperation regarding the emergence of new nuclear powers (despite all that diplomacy).unsuccessfully -. we've finally seen global defense spending surpass the previous world record set in the late 1980s. * A modest scaling back of international policing efforts by the system's acknowledged Leviathan power (inevitable given the strain). ensuing conflict and wars -. In the short run. * The usual frequency maintained in civil conflicts (in all the usual places). the Russia-Georgia conflict last August was specifically timed.to do something. the usual counter-drug efforts in Latin America. the only two potential state-on-state wars (North v. and commentary regarding. and * No serious efforts by any rising great power to challenge that Leviathan or supplant its role. Indeed. And with the United States effectively tied down by its two ongoing major interventions (Iraq and Afghanistan-bleeding-into-Pakistan). Now. but even that's likely to wane given the stress on public budgets created by all this unprecedented "stimulus" spending. and three quarters of the chronic struggles began in the last century. for example. no. So. If anything..M. Besides the recent Russia-Georgia dust-up. Everywhere else we find serious instability we pretty much let it burn.a rerun of the Great Depression leading to world war. South Korea. to sum up: * No significant uptick in mass violence or unrest (remember the smattering of urban riots last year in places like Greece. The world's major economies remain governed by center-left or center-right political factions that remain decidedly friendly to both markets and trade. Looking over the various databases.g. hasn't led us to anything beyond advising and training local forces. Israel v. None of the more than three-dozen ongoing conflicts listed by GlobalSecurity. Our new Africa Command. the friendly cooperation on such stimulus packaging was the most notable great-power dynamic caused by the crisis. both leading up to and following the onset of the economic crisis: e. as global economic news brightens and recovery -surprisingly led by China and emerging markets -.is the talk of the day.S.org can be clearly attributed to the global recession. then. Certainly. as it were. Moldova and Latvia?). the last new entry (civil conflict between Hamas and Fatah in the Palestine) predates the economic crisis by a year. (The worst things we can cite are Moscow's occasional deployments of strategic assets to the Western hemisphere and its weak efforts to outbid the United States on basing rights in Kyrgyzstan. Barnett (senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC and a contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire magazine) August 2009 “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis” http://www. * Not a single state-on-state war directly caused (and no great-power-on-great-power crises even triggered). Ditto for the 15 low-intensity conflicts listed by Wikipedia (where the latest entry is the Mexican "drug war" begun in 2006). but by most accounts the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics was the most important external trigger (followed by the U. presidential campaign) for that sudden spike in an almost two-decade long struggle between Georgia and its two breakaway regions. it's interesting to look back over the past year and realize how globalization's first truly worldwide recession has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the international security landscape. Iran) are both tied to one side acquiring a nuclear weapon capacity -.) Sure.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl. occasionally pressing the Chinese -. and liberation-themed terrorist movements. our involvement elsewhere around the planet has been quite modest.aprodex. Can we say that the world has suffered a distinct shift to political radicalism as a result of the economic crisis? Indeed. but the best include China and India stepping up their aid and investments in Afghanistan and Iraq. there were attempts across the board to .A2 Econ Impact Economic collapse doesn’t cause war – no causal connection Thomas P. insurgencies.aspx When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago.
so bring it on -. Naturally. I don't welcome a world in which America's fiscal profligacy goes undisciplined.please! Add it all up and it's fair to say that this global financial crisis has proven the great resilience of America's post-World War II international liberal trade order. September/October. in a world of globally integrated production chains and interconnected financial markets. Do I expect to read any analyses along those lines in the blogosphere any time soon? Absolutely not. I expect the fantastic fear-mongering to proceed apace. the economic crisis did not prove to be sufficiently frightening to provoke major economies into establishing global regulatory schemes. Some wars came after periods of growth. What may be the most familiar causal chain in modern historiography links the Great Depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of World War II. the World Trade Organization is functioning as it was designed to function. 85. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University) 2006 Foreign Affairs. that shift was clearly overwhelmed by the Islamic world's growing disenchantment with the brutality displayed by violent extremist groups such as al-Qaida. But that simple story leaves too much out. And yet.discussion of the continuing viability of the U.S. as I argued last week -. Nazi Germany started the war in Europe only after its economy had recovered. At the end of the day. That's what the Internet is for. others were the causes rather than the consequences of economic catastrophe. and regional efforts toward free-trade agreements have not slowed. In fact. and some severe economic crises were not followed by wars. . No causal relationship – ignores other variables Niall Ferguson (Laurence A. seeing in it the beginning of "economic warfare" and the like between "fading" America and "rising" China. plenty of experts and pundits have attached great significance to this debate. austere economic times are just as likely to breed connecting evangelicalism as disconnecting fundamentalism. such "diverging interests" hardly constitute signposts for wars up ahead. Vol. Not all the countries affected by the Great Depression were taken over by fascist regimes.insulate economies from immediate damage (in effect.and much needed. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. even as it has sparked a spirited -. but there was no great slide into "trade wars. nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression. no general relationship between economics and conflict is discernible for the century as a whole. Frankly. as much protectionism as allowed under current trade rules)." Instead. Can we say Islamic radicalism was inflamed by the economic crisis? If it was. And looking forward. Issue 5 Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed.
A2 EU Adv .
4 trillion cubic feet in 2010 from 20.S.6 percent last year to an average 5. 7/20/12. Domestic oil output is the highest in eight years. however. is the closest it has been in almost 20 years to achieving energy self-sufficiency. only politicians and the occasional author in Popular Mechanics magazine talked about achieving energy independence. “Now it doesn’t seem such an outlandish idea.S. nearly 24% of the world’s total. the world’s biggest methanol maker. more than offset its imports. Specialist in Russian and European Affairs. 2012.1NC Frontline Energy security now Miller ‘12 (Rich.pdf.” said Adam Sieminski. Russia had the largest natural gas reserves in the world. “Europe’s Energy Security: Options and Challenges to Natural Gas Supply Diversification” http://www. Russia was also a founding member.19 (See Figure 2. atl) The U. As Top Producer. Paul Belkin. and placed second in production and consumption behind the United States. The U.fas. according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the U.bloomberg. Energy Information Administration. the efficiency of the average U. is producing so much natural gas that. energy self-sufficiency has been steadily rising since 2005. Russia is currently the dominant supplier of natural gas to Europe.S. (MX). when it hit a low of 70 percent. when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission warned of the need for more imports.S. increasing the proportion of demand met from domestic sources over the last six years to an estimated 81 percent through the first 10 months of 2011. Europe is also the most important market for Russian natural gas exports. the country’s exports. Steven Woehrel. jobs and government revenue. said it will dismantle a factory in Chile and reassemble it in Louisiana to take advantage of low natural gas The result: The U.S. according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. which could see the country become the world’s top energy producer by 2020. “Americans Gaining Energy Independence With U. along with slow economic growth. As noted. March 13. Analyst in European Affairs. a goal the nation has been pursuing since the 1973 Arab oil embargo triggered a recession and led to lines at gasoline stations. the data compiled by Bloomberg show. has reversed a two-decade-long decline in energy independence. be the highest level since 1992. accounting for about one-quarter of the EU’s natural gas supplies. have curbed demand. cutting the trade deficit. where the government warned four years ago of a critical need to boost imports. a calculation the Russians must take into account when developing its political relations with . In 2010. and allowing greater flexibility in dealing with unrest in the Middle East.S. “For 40 years. While it still imported some petroleum. has implications for the economy and national security -. Domestic crude oil production rose 3.) This dependency does not go only in one direction. 7/19/12. enhancing manufacturers’ competitiveness. February 6. Michael e-.9 mpg in 1978. At the same time.6 miles per gallon in 2011 from 19.2 trillion in 2007. It increased to 29.S.boosting household incomes. including of coal. http://www.org/sgp/crs/row/R42405. 2012. Specialist in European Affairs. who has been nominated by President Barack Obama to head the U.7 million barrels a day. in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). and currently holds the top position. passenger vehicle has helped limit demand. it now may approve an export terminal. The last time the U. Methanex Corp. Natural gas output climbed to 22. achieved energy independence was in 1952. Output Rising U. And higher mileage standards and federally mandated ethanol use.S. the highest since 2003.com/news/2012-02-07/americans-gaining-energyindependence-with-u-s-as-top-producer.” The transformation. Department of Energy. atl) The Russian natural gas industry is one of the most important players in the global energy market . Jim Nichol.S.” Bloomberg. EU gas trade is critical to Russian economic stability and Russia doesn’t have the capabilities to expand Ratner et al ‘12 (Specialist in Energy Policy. according to the Energy Department. Prices have fallen more than 80 percent since 2008. was the leading exporter of natural gas.html. That would prices.
and wages. Of the 7. almost 55% went to the EU. Gazprom offers natural gas to the Russian domestic market at subsidized prices. but in a land without well-defined property rights or contract law and where subsidies remain a way of life. the gdp has fallen by 50 percent.Europe. “Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars”. Chechnya's successful revolt against Russian . A future conflict would quickly draw in Russia's military.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. it is not at all clear which side the military would support. which is seeking EU membership. They may be viewed as demonstrating the resurgence of Russian power after the collapse of the Soviet Union over 20 years ago. Russia opened its first LNG export facility in 2009 on its east coast. the Russian government plans to increase gas exports to Asian countries such as China. all Russian natural gas exports are controlled by Gazprom. Draftees serve closer to home. the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look remote at best. Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. But with the Communist Party out of office. and medical care. Russia’s “National Security Strategy to 2020. Gazprom has the closest possible links with top Russian leaders (Russia’s outgoing president Dimitri Mevedev served as president of Gazprom). personal friendships between government leaders and military commanders. nearly all of which make some claim to sovereignty. Russia's 89 republics. Russian government revenues (in 2010. South Korea. over 28% went to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In addition to their financial benefits. In a society where. As the central government finds itsel devolves to the periphery. atl] If internal war does strike Russia. Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. since the structure of the Russian Federation makes it virtually certain that regional conflicts will continue to erupt. The revenues generated by this trade are vital to the ruling Russian elite. all in the form of LNG. Newly enhanced ties between military units and local authorities pose another danger. Divining the military's allegiance is crucial. Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Eurasia may have important psychological benefits for the Russian elite. unemployment scarcely existed. however. many of which have been unreliable in paying what they owe and/or receive natural gas at subsidized prices. economic deterioration will be a prime cause. In the Soviet days civilian rule kept the powerful armed forces in check. Long-standing Russian hopes of providing large amounts of natural gas to China by pipeline have been stymied by the fact that China has been unwilling to pay the price Europe pays for Russian natural gas. Meanwhile. and other non-EU countries in Europe. Reformers tout privatization as the country's cure-all. krais. If conditions get worse. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political crisis show. Government proposals to decrease subsidies have not come to fruition. housing. Foreign Affairs -Volume 8 No. and to Asia. With the economy collapsing. At present.1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas exported by Gazprom in 2010. Soldiers grow ever more dependent on local governments for housing. 46% of total Russian government revenue came from oil and natural gas taxes) and Russia’s economic revival in the Putin/Medvedev era have been heavily dependent on the massive wealth generated by energy exports to Europe. 10/25/11. Drastic cuts in spending mean inadequate pay. The personal and political fortunes of Russia’s leaders are closely tied to Gazprom. food. and Japan until they make up 19%-20% of the total. Russia hopes to reduce dependency on Europe by diversifying its customer base as well. 1.”22 In the long term. and oblasts grow ever more independent in a system that does little to keep them together.23 Russian economic collapse spreads globally and goes nuclear David ’99 (Writer for Foreign Affairs. A new emphasis on domestic missions has created an ideological split between the old and new guard in the military leadership. even the stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience.20 The rest went to Turkey. As a state-controlled firm. By 2030. Of the rest. increasing the risk that disgruntled generals may enter the political fray and feeding the resentment of soldiers who dislike being used as a national police force. Three-quarters of them already have their own constitutions.” released in May 2009. ten years ago. Steven R. the morale of Russian soldiers has fallen to a dangerous low. and new laws have in creased local control over the armed forces. Strong ethnic bonds promoted by shortsighted Soviet policies may motivate non-Russians to secede from the Federation. However. stated that “the resource potential of Russia” is one of the factors that has “expanded the possibilities of the Russian Federation to strengthen its influence in the world arena. which also bolsters the ruling elite politically. The bulk of Gazprom’s natural gas exports go to Europe and Eurasia. From 1989 to the present. republics feel less and less incentive to pay taxes to Moscow when they receive so little in return. Russia has a considerable way to go to meet this objective. Were a conflict to emerge between a regional power and Moscow. Twenty-two percent of Russians live below the official poverty line (earning less than $70 a month). what little civilian control remains relies on an exceedingly fragile foundation. In 2010. it reached 9. gas exports to Asia made up about 7% of total Russian gas exports.
March 13. If these rebellions spread and Moscow responds with force. “Europe’s Energy Security: Options and Challenges to Natural Gas Supply Diversification” http://www. relied on Russia for almost 40% of its imports in 2010. Paul Belkin.000 nuclear weapons and the raw material for tens of thousands more. Analysts note that recent policy decisions. mitigating the impact of potential supply interruptions and overdependence on a single supplier. An embattled Russian Federation might provoke op portunistic attacks from enemies such as China. the EU has traditionally exerted little if any influence over the energy policies of individual member states. do not import any natural gas from Russia. Specialist in European Affairs. Massive flows of refugees would pour into central and western Europe. atl) Collectively. Some large natural gas consumers. Damage from the fighting. could mean a more rapid rise in Europe’s dependence on natural gas imports. Germany. however. Natural gas comprised over 25% of the EU’s primary energy consumption in 2010. EU member states have begun to increase cooperation toward an “Energy Policy for Europe. Within Russia. European leaders anticipate that these initiatives will allow member states to share and trade energy more flexibly than at present. would poison the environment of much of Europe and Asia. particularly attacks on nuclear plants. So far. If war erupts. No nuclear state has ever fallen victim to civil war. many question how far individual member states will agree to push Russia (and Gazprom) to adopt the EU’s principles of competition and open its energy sector to . 2012. Moscow's already weak grip on nuclear sites will slacken. the key supplier of natural gas to Europe. In a reflection of these national differences. Russia has long been. but are much smaller energy consumers. Observers expect natural gas to play a significant role in EuropeRussia relations for decades to come. Steven Woehrel. The opening of the Nord Stream pipeline in late 2011 and Germany’s planned closure of its nuclear power plants highlights Germany’s potentially greater reliance on Russia. promoting the interconnection of electric grids and natural gas pipelines. such as a 2011 German announcement that it would phase out use of its nuclear power plants by 2020 and a French decision to prohibit shale gas development. Even as EU leaders promote ideas on a common energy strategy. in the face of rising concern about Europe’s reliance on Russian energy and growing public pressure to address global climate change. Russian and European companies have developed an extensive network of infrastructure to transport Russian natural gas long distances to European markets. And it is hard to think of anything that would increase this threat more than the chaos that would follow a Russian civil war. EU member states are the world’s largest energy importer . However. a second civil war might produce another horrific regime. European heads of state have committed to completing the integration and liberalization of the internal European energy market by 2014. and better coordinating external energy policies. and is expected to continue to be. civil war is likely. Such dispersal of nuclear weapons represents the greatest physical threat America now faces. A major power like Russia even though in decline does not suffer civil war quietly or alone. particularly to reach ambitious targets to reduce carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions. Russia retains some 20. making weapons and sup plies available to a wide range of anti-American groups and states.org/sgp/crs/row/R42405. the consequences would be even worse. The European Commission forecasts that the EU will import over 80% of its natural gas needs by 2030. the government has managed to prevent the loss of any weapons or much materiel. In 2010. Jim Nichol.pdf. and nuclear 12% of the EU primary energy supply. Russia accounted for 34% of European natural gas imports. Should Russia succumb to internal war. but even without a clear precedent the grim consequences can be foreseen. Armed struggles in Russia could easily spill into its neighbors . coal about 16%. Michael e-. Specialist in Russian and European Affairs. the consequences for the United States and Europe will be severe.fas. the second biggest natural gas consumer and Russia’s largest market. followed by Norway and Algeria (see Figure 1). a number that is expected to grow to almost 30% by 2030. 7/19/12. Different EU member states use natural gas to different degrees and import levels and sources vary by country (see Table 1).control inspired similar movements for autonomy and independence throughout the country.” As stated earlier. Just as the sheer brutality of the last Russian civil war laid the basis for the privations of Soviet communism. such as Spain.12 EU member states increasingly rely on natural gas. importing about 55% of their energy supply— approximately 84% of their oil and 64% of their natural gas. boosting energy efficiency. Analyst in European Affairs.13 Oil made up almost 40%. Other EU countries have made similar announcements. in scores of sites scattered throughout the country. Most alarming is the real possibility that the violent disintegration of Russia could lead to loss of control over its nuclear arsenal. Inevitable – trade pacts and infrastructure prevent alternatives from mattering Ratner et al ‘12 (Specialist in Energy Policy.
bilateral deals with Russia are not limited to the major energy consumers. These examples of individual member states dealing with Russia bilaterally have in the past drawn harsh criticism from other EU member states. have negotiated long-term deals with Russia to lock in future natural gas supplies. Russia’s role as a dominant energy supplier increases the importance of fostering good relations with Moscow. Indeed. who have had strained relations with Russia for some time over other issues as well.outside investment. But they also feel Europe does not gain real security by becoming more dependent on Russia. Both Germany and Italy. In fact. several member states have pursued bilateral energy deals with Russia that will increase their dependence on Russia for years to come. the growing presence of Gazprom throughout the European energy market (for instance through its ownership of distribution and storage infrastructure) has led many to worry about the EU’s ability to develop an energy policy insulated from Gazprom’s influence. Hungary.14 . For Germany and several others. Governments in these countries have warned their European colleagues not to make energy deals that could give Russia increased political influence over European decision-making. Further. the largest importers of Russian natural gas. Greece. Some believe that without such Russian concessions. Europe will ultimately find its energy security largely under Russian control. Romania. and others have entered into long-term energy agreements with Gazprom over the past several years. such as the Baltic states and Poland. Bulgaria. Many of these nations believe that Europe’s dependence on Russian energy is likely to last no matter how successful Europe may be in identifying energy supply alternatives.
A2 Russia Aggression Impact No Russian aggression – strong demographic and structural changes Popescu ’12 (European Council on Foreign Relations research fellow. with the threat of further decline due to the higher numbers of old than young. With over 12 million migrants. partly due to immigration (primarily from Central Asia and the south Caucasus) and higher population growth among some Russian minorities. An increasingly obvious trend in the last few years is for the ‘old’ expansionist nationalism to rapidly lose ground to a new breed of isolationist. you must know all about corruption." Or the ease with which jokes like "You are Russian. This is not to say that Russians in Britain are discriminated against in the workplace. The British media. Such nationalism is more concerned with maintaining Russia’s ‘Russianness’ than with territorial expansion. even though he laments the ‘inadequate. Russia is the second biggest recipient of inward migration in the world after the US. What is it? It is when an English literature teacher in a good school. aggressive. atl) One of Vladimir Putin’s recent pre-election articles dedicated to the ‘national question’ largely subscribes to this view. particularly in the north Caucasus. pop star or secret assassin. or that my neighbours suspect me of dumping polonium when I throw rubbish away.guardian. The nationalist schism is clearly visible at nationalist marches parts of the crowd shout ‘there is no Russia without Caucasus’ whereas other parts shout ‘Stop feeding the Caucasus’ and ‘Migrants today. but even more so about the fact that Russia is becoming less ethnically Russian. atl) A Russophobia virus has infected the air. "Russia’s liberal-nationalist cocktail” blogs. February 3. From the nationalists’ perspective Russia’s demographic crisis is two-fold. www. A BBC documentary presenter asks his Russian interpreter in the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad: "Do you feel Russian or European?" What does he expect the woman to say? When a fashionable detective writer wants to write a thriller with a foreign twist. defiant and disrespectful’ behaviour of some migrants. power of territorial expansion and cultural attraction. the growing realisation of Russia’s structural problems – from demographic crisis to bad governance under Putin.euobserver. guess who will be the nemesis? An al-Qaida plot in Hackney runs the risk of being politically incorrect. Anna. mindful of inter-race relations. But from the nationalists’ perspective. seeks to avoid hurting the feelings of Muslims. topped by the economic crisis – has led to some structural shifts in Russian nationalism.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/russia-west-media-stereotypes. "Battling Russophobia. simply write – I am Russian. 7/24/12. the pace of which has indeed slowed. Russia’s defensive nationalism rests on a much-diminished belief in Russia’s power to expand and assimilate its periphery. One aspect is the decline of Russia’s population. graver still is the fact that the fall in numbers of ethnic Russians due to emigration. But Russian dissidents and oligarchs chased by Scottish police fit the bill perfectly. high mortality and low birth rates is faster than the overall demographic decline. Nicu. particularly the culturally distant Muslim populations of Central Asia and the Caucasus. 2012.co. 12-13-8. But such imperialist nationalism was based on a strong confidence in Russia’s state capacity. but the idea that Russians can feel hurt does not occur to them. though as a share of migrants per total population Russia only ranks 55th in the world. Rather. European Council on Foreign Relations. if one is not an oligarch. accessed 2-11-12. The instinctive response to fears of relative demographic decline of ethnic Russians is a growing ‘fortress Russia’ syndrome. The key source of this defensive nationalism is the toxic mix of high immigration into Russia coupled with a demographic crisis. tells your daughter: "Don't worry." Guardian. For Russians in the west. At its core." are made. introvert and defensive nationalism that is primarily anti-immigrant and often antiimperial. However. So the fear is not only about Russia’s decreasing population. Your arguments are just saturated Russiaphobia Matveeva ‘08 (Guardian staff reporter.com/popescu/2012/02/06/russias-liberal-nationalist-cocktail/. treading these waters is problematic. I do not have a sense of humour. and does not think that "Putin's regime" is second-worst to that of Ivan the Terrible. minorities are not allowed to speak their languages and males are chauvinist . it is possible to say things without thinking of what it might be like on the receiving end. explaining how to answer an exam question on comedy. Stereotypes promoted by the media are now entrenched: Russian companies are corrupt and are puppets of the state. Occupiers tomorrow’.
It can go either towards increased modernisation or militarisation. Unlike in the 1990s. (3) limit their ambitions to culture and (4) award Boris Berezovsky a medal for democracy-promotion. More objective reports appeared much later. Why was the conflict in South Ossetia so important? Because Russia was a party to it. The Russia-Georgia debacle brought these attitudes to the fore. The economy survives on pumping gas. undermining the achievements of disarmament. as BP and Shell found out. it should (1) surrender and apologise. turning the energy of embittered idealism into exposing the evils of "Putin's KGB regime". (2) give western companies control over natural reserves because Russians mismanage them anyhow. The cold warriors found a mission again. It is hard to blame journalists for reporting what is newsworthy: saying that Russians go to supermarkets and buy the same food as their western counterparts is boring. In the security field. it is impossible to conduct a frank dialogue on issues of common concern. it is harder to do business. Finally. News from Russia is bad news. What feeds Russophobia? Moscow's own actions are only part of the story. because their gut feeling told them who was in the wrong. They were joined by immigrants who made their way in the new country by "unveiling the truth" about Russia. the Russian elite reads English-language media. In the last few years several constituencies came together to create a new momentum. Western liberals who passionately believed in Russia's democratic transformation to their own recipe became disillusioned. while no parallels were drawn with Nato action in ex-Yugoslavia in support of Albanians. getting from it the idea that "the west is against us". The question is: can Russia do anything good? In Russophobes' eyes. The existence of a familiar enemy who plays by the rules is more comfortable than the "enemy amongst us" who may work in a corner chip shop. polarising language flourishes. It is the responsibility of the western intelligentsia to see that stereotypes create enemies and not to miss their chance to prevent a new division of Europe. Politically. What are the effects of Russophobia? Economically. but solid relations with the west. Readers were led to believe that minuscule South Ossetia is a protostate like Kosovo.machos. It can build pragmatic. or it can indulge in spoiling the international game and setting up anti-western alliances. as trust has gone out of the relationship. it has resulted in militarisation on both sides. The reaction of the media and the politicians was overwhelmingly anti-Russian. while the leadership dreams of conquering half of the world. . Why should we care? Attitudes matter as Russia is at a crossroads. while writing that Moscow hosts the first ever all-male strip joint is "sexy".
“Should U. prices will have to rise. profit margins for exports will shrink. Many companies are either cutting back on production because it has become less profitable or they are shifting their production from dry gas to wet gas and oil production. LNG capacity to meet Asian demand. prompting them to sell off assets. particularly since energy prices only reflect a small share of total costs in most domestic industries. there are distributional effects: producers will benefit and industries using natural gas as a feedstock will be hurt. nor as damaging as critics would have it.Ext. possesses ample supplies for years to come. In short. In fact. which are more valuable.S. current domestic prices are probably at unsustainably low levels. This would not adversely impact the U. which both shrinks profit margins and means that export capacity will remain limited at least in the near-term. But. Nicholas. As production scales back. most likely. LNG exports from Australia will increase by 20-80 million tons per year by 2018. Export Natural Gas?” http://americansecurityproject. Certainly. where it is regasified and piped into its distribution system. is expanding. from both sides. which transforms it into a liquid. This is difficult and expensive to do. 2012. Already. manufacturing sector.org/blog/2012/should-u-s-export-natural-gas/. Even if the U. economy are ambiguous. As Roman Kilisek of the Foreign Policy Association notes. and production may have reached a temporary peak. As prices rise. low gas prices are hurting drilling companies. Natural gas needs to be cooled to negative 260 degrees F. the issue is overblown. it probably won’t even be a big deal. They estimated that exporting natural gas prices would only increase wellhead prices by 2-11%. As that capacity comes online.S. particularly in Australia.S. exporting natural gas is not like exporting oil. A recent report from the Brookings Institution concluded that LNG exports are feasible but would be limited due to high costs. Specializes in Energy and Competitiveness. Finally. then transported by ship to its destination. the impact will only be marginal. There are several reasons why even if we went full steam ahead with natural gas exports.S. the overall economic impact will be mixed. Rig counts are down. LNG exports will not spell doom for our competitiveness. Third. the effects of natural gas exports for the U. natural gas prices are historically volatile. atl) However. First. – No Solvency Increase in exports wouldn’t do anything Cunningham ‘12 (American Security Project Policy Analyst. it would not have a major impact . Second. nor will it . June 25. 7/21/12. and has begun to decline. be the enormous economic prize that some are making it out to be. there are reasons to believe that the furor. Exporting natural gas will neither be as good as supporters believe. high natural gas prices in Asia will begin to moderate. While exports would affect different stakeholders in different ways. is overblown.
however. The result of that dependence is that Russia has been able to exert its status as a monopolistic energy supplier . atl) For the last three decades. Now. It states that “Russia’s natural gas market share in Western Europe will decline to as little as 13 percent by 2040. http://americansecurityproject. Not only has this reduced prices.Ext. “Shale Gas and US National Security” (pdf) by Kenneth Medlock. Over the last ten years. The integration of the former Eastern Bloc into the EU over the last two decades made the problem even more acute. For years. the United States has gone from essentially zero in 2000 to over 10 billion cubic feel per day by 2010. This production increase has been enough to change the US from a net importer of gas to a net exporter. a glut of gas produced in the United States is changing Europe’s geopolitical energy equation. the story of European energy security has been a steadily growing dependence on Russian natural gas.” Even without any significant production of shale gas in Europe (yet). . countries of Europe have grown steadily more dependent on Russian gas. have not been afraid to threaten the stability of these supplies to gain geopolitical power and extract foreign policy concessions. Amy Meyers Jaffe and Peter Hartley highlights how increased US production of gas is already undercutting Russia’s geopolitical power of European energy. Russia was exporting 4. Russia Turn New production proves uniqueness now Holland ‘12 (American Security Project Adjunct Fellow. July 22.org/blog/2011/americanshale-gas-is-revolutionizing-european-energy-security/. now those same terminals are being used to export gas. Andrew. The focus of this policy was to build a gas pipeline through the ‘Southern Corridor’ from the Caspian Sea through Turkey and up through the Balkans. US policy on building energy security in Europe was to foster competition with Russian gas. most notably Qatar. 2012. Gas shut-offs to Ukrainian pipelines (through which most of Europe’s supplies travel) in the winters of 2005 and 2009 caused widespread misery across Eastern Europe as power and heat were shut down in countries like Bulgaria and Romania that are almost totally dependent on Russian imports. as 40 years of infrastructure was built in order to foster dependence between the Soviet Union and its satellite states. 7/20/12. to change their exports from the United States to places like Europe or Japan. down from 27 percent in 2009. A new report out from Rice University’s Baker Institute. Gazprom. From the time when the Trans-Siberian Pipeline first started delivering gas to Europe in 1983. This has freed other large producers. The graph at left shows how this revolution has affected total US gas production. “American Shale Gas is Revolutionizing European Energy Security”. It is ironic that now the United States is the exporter that could provide the competition to Russian gas that Europe needs. Where once the US had been scrambling to build Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals in the early part of the decade. new supplies of shale gas from the United States are reshaping this equation. and the Russian state. By 2009.5 trillion cubic feet of gas into Europe. it also has given Europe the redundancy it needs to free itself from Russian gas dominance. about 25% of Europe’s total gas consumption.
Solvency Hit .
energy companies will have to charge triple digit sums for a barrel of oil.uses great amounts of highly pressurized water. Fracking bad – laundry list of impacts Stevenson 6/25/12 (Tim.com/ci_20930567/is-peak-oil-dead?source=most_viewed. “Hunt for Gas Hits Fragile Soil. The tar sands net energy in Alberta is 3:1. however.6 percent of our GDP on oil. with growing evidence that toxic fracking water is leaking into underground aquifers. The Energy Returned on Energy Investment (EROEI) for the Bakken shale in North Dakota.nytimes. at the State University of New York. Then there is the environmental damage. Fracking wells typically don’t keep producing for very long. estimated to be trapped in U. this shift to unconventional fossil fuels has a very dark side. around $60 a barrel. sand and toxic chemicals to force oil and gas from the rock formations in which they are embedded. shale formations is only about 9 months’ worth of global consumption. policy director of Pacific Environment.the 1930s and 1940s . The 24 billion barrels. Founding director of Post Oil Solutions. he noted. In one example. In order to recoup their considerable investment. their extraction and processing is extremely expensive.” said Doug Norlen. this bonanza is short term. for example. has calculated that it is not possible to run our complex civilization on a net-energy below about a 6:1ratio. like the BP Gulf disaster in 2010. and 15 percent the third. not individuals. and South Africans fear risks. and concerns about the safety of water supplies. This has resulted in serious air pollution.1NC Stuff Fracking successes in the US don’t translate abroad Urbina ’11 (Ian. While some have been able to yield as much as 1. they may not be paying enough attention to the environmental risks of drilling. For one thing. wastewater problems. 35 percent the second. Charles Hall. Norlen added that the influx of foreign construction workers in these projects could lead to conflicts with local and tribal communities. The drilling technique for tar sands and shale oil -. Mr. They also note that local residents — who bear the brunt of the air pollution. .where the EROEI produced 100:1 net-energy. the U. goes into a recession when we spend more than 4. The direct benefits of new drilling to American landowners — they receive bonuses and royalties when they lease their land to drillers — will generally not be shared by landowners abroad. The New York Times. TGA) Despite their apparent promise of a bright future.S. Earthquakes are also occurring in fracking areas where they’ve not happened before.reformer.S. "Is Peak Oil Dead?" www. http://www. In South Africa and many other countries looking to embrace the drilling. Additionally. the minerals under a property are more often owned by governments.com/2011/12/31/world/south-african-farmers-see-threat-fromfracking. and except for the lucky few who get temporary construction jobs. the economic conditions for local communities can actually get worse. These compare with the halcyon days of cheap oil . for example is 4:1. “These projects have already started causing steep inflation in costs of local housing and services. which means it takes one barrel of energy to produce four barrels of shale oil. and truck traffic that come with drilling — 1may see few benefits. an advocacy and research organization that tracks federal and corporate financing of energy projects abroad.000 barrels a day."fracking" -. and that is before refining the oil to finished products. the rate then falls off to 65 percent the first year.” 12/30.html?_r=1. potential water contamination from spills or underground seepage. TGA) Some economists and environmentalists say that while the governments of poorer countries may benefit from the new tax revenues and jobs. the United States government-financed project in Papua New Guinea to extract and transport liquid natural gas recently led to violent clashes between residents and foreign contractors. Historically.
com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/06/27/way-too-soon-to-get-into-natural-gas/. or from LNG export is still in the talking phase. If natural gas prices return to the $5 to $7 MMBtu range. as it could then be more economical to retrofit power generating units back to coal usage. or at least too early. Furthermore. The fundamental demand and supply features of the trade are just not there. Coal also has the advantage of having a fixed set of rules and regulations that the EPA enforces. which was purchased by ExxonMobil. "Way Too Soon to Get Into Natural Gas" www. We also would not be buyers of midstream infrastructure operators either. especially in the short-run. while there remains a lot of uncertainty around what the future fracking regulations will be. TGA) While Mr. . Little investment has yet been made.A2 Energy Transition Too soon to invest in natural gas—no stable market and no short-term profit sustainability Barone 6/27/12 (Writer for Forbes.forbes. demand from autos and trucks. While I believe that Devon Energy (DVN) and XTO Energy. it seems a bit risky. which is where Mr Gundlach’s mutual fund DoubleLine Multi-Asset Growth Fund (DMLAX) is looking at making purchases. Gundlach’s trade is quite interesting. the demand coming from the power industry could be short lived. One only needs to look at Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and its mounting debt and management issues to see the sector is not sound. are well managed I would not be a buyer at this point based on their current profit margins.
” http://www. But just as a full watering hole can deplete quickly the current gas storage glut can recede. “We’re Headed to $8 Natural Gas. Consider this.9% ahead of the previous year and the five year averages respectively. The inventory increase last year at this time was 67 bcf while the five year average accretion was 74 bcf. If fact it already has been and at an alarmingly brisk pace and there may be a confluence of other events which could hasten the process.2% above last year but only 17.forbes. But this makes eleven straight weeks that have experienced below average storage injections. Forbes.com/sites/richardfinger/2012/07/22/were-headed-to-8-00-natural-gas/. why are rates of gas injection dropping so precipitously unless the shale plays are actually unable to produce the necessary incremental volumes. A seemingly decent cushion until you consider as recently as May 10 stockpiles were 48. Everybody knows that. prices will be low forever. The weekly EIA natural gas storage numbers reported each Thursday came in with a 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) injection. So true that one week does not a trend make. There’s so much of the latest multi stage hydraulic fracturing going on from New York State to Texas and all places in between. TGA) There is a glut of natural gas.A2 Econ/Market Args Prices will inevitably skyrocket Finger 7/22/12 (Richard.163 Trillion Cubic Feet or 19. So the question becomes.5% above the five year average.4% and 49. After Thursday’s numbers were released inventories stood at 3. .
Groundwater DA .
. Drilling kills the ecosystem and causes methane leaks that exacerbate warming Bishop 11 (“Chemical and Biological Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Extraction in New York” Ronald E.D. the potential environmental impacts.D. 2011. particularly in those areas where gas development is a new activity.org/Risk%20Assessment%20Natural%20Gas%20Extraction-1.. “In some areas. further threatening plants and animals which are already species of concern. and the ability of the current regulatory structure to deal with this development. and enable energy development companies to pursue projects in places which historically weren’t commercially viable (such as New York’s Southern Tier). With these changes have come questions about the nature of shale gas development. Natural gas production from hydrocarbonrich shale formations is probably the most rapidly developing trend in onshore oil and gas exploration and production today. gas exploration and production have never been free of risk. • Each gas well pad. to harm humans. will degrade air quality and may cause a recently described “down-winder’s syndrome” in humans. Improved regulations and enhanced enforcement may reasonably be anticipated to produce more industry penalties. • Some chemicals in ubiquitous use for shale gas exploration and production. Mitigation measures can partially reduce.org/Risk%20Assessment%20Natural%20Gas%20Extraction-1. Human health impacts from these incidents may include abnormally high death rates from glandular and reproductive system cancers in men and women. College at Oneonta March 28. In spite of the technological advances made to date. Ph. the anticipated harm. such as air/foam-lubricated drilling and the use of impoundments for flowback fluids. Therefore. Potential exposure effects for humans include poisoning of susceptible tissues. which distinguish it from conventional gas extraction activity. http://www.1NC Increased fracking will pollute groundwater and destroy the ecosystem Bishop 11 (“Chemical and Biological Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Extraction in New York” Ronald E. surface water and ground-water quality. are the use of horizontal drilling and high-volume hydraulic fracturing. these activities pose significant chemical and biological hazards to human health and ecosystem stability. If not sequestered from local waterways. but not necessarily better industry practices. livestock and crops. this has included bringing drilling and production to regions of the country that have seen little or no activity in the past. the objective is to evaluate risk related to the industry as a whole.sustainableotsego. Bishop. While these technologies certainly lead to well projects which are orders of magnitude larger than traditional gas wells. along with the intensive use of diesel-fueled equipment. with its associated access road and pipeline. • More than one of every six shale gas wells will leak fluids to surrounding rocks and to the surface over the next century. operators in the natural gas industry have developed highly sophisticated methods and materials for the exploration and production of methane from unconventional reservoirs. inasmuch as the term “fracking” is understood by a majority of Americans as emblematic of the entire shale gas industry (2). but not eliminate. http://www. If future impacts may be inferred from recent historical performance. • State officials have not effectively managed oil and gas exploration and production in New York. then: • Approximately two percent of shale gas well projects in New York will pollute local ground-water over the short term.htm) Over the last decade. evidenced by thousands of undocumented or improperly abandoned wells and numerous incidents of soil and water contamination. will generate a sediment discharge of approximately eight tons per year. • Exposures of gas field workers and neighbors to toxic chemicals and noxious bacteria are exacerbated by certain common practices.” (1) Prominent features of shale gas development. CHO Chemistry & Biochemistry Department State University of New York. CHO Chemistry & Biochemistry Department State University of New York. Overall. Serious regulatory violations will occur at more than one of every ten new shale gas projects. these sediments will further threaten federally endangered mollusks and other aquatic organisms. • Construction of access roads and pipelines will fragment field and forest habitats. These methods. Ph. constitute human health and environmental hazards when present at extremely low concentrations.htm) . than were seen in the past. Bishop. 2011. New oil and gas developments bring changes to the environmental and socio‐economic landscape. No attempt is made here to isolate horizontal drilling or hydraulic fracturing from any other processes used for gas extraction and transportation. or consistently present in process wastes.sustainableotsego. endocrine disruption syndromes. proceeding with any new projects to extract methane from unconventional reservoirs by current practices in New York State is highly likely to degrade air. College at Oneonta March 28. and elevated risks for certain cancers. and to negatively impact aquatic and forest ecosystems.
August." Trifling with the "lives" of species is like playing Russian roulette. According to the U.600 more leaking gas wells should be anticipated." One can never be sure which species holds up fundamental biological relationships in the planetary ecosystem. Politics and Life Sciences. "The ramifications of an ecological change of this magnitude [vast extinction of species] are so far reaching that no one on earth will escape them.As stated above. there is little evidence that changes to the regulatory process will be adequate to protect New York’s environment and citizens from harm caused by this industry. about 1. Over a century. New York State law regarding the gas industry clearly promotes production over environmental protection (35).S.000 gas wells (a plausible estimate according to Anthony Ingraffea) (130).200 citations for serious regulatory violations and at least 200 incidents of groundwater contamination in the short term. For example. Documenting harm and penalizing those in the energy industry who caused it have historically done little to mitigate that harm or prevent its re-occurrence. Changes in human chronic disease profiles and impacts on domestic. it may be too late to save the system after the extinction of key plants or animals. aquatic and forest ecosystems would be more insidious and difficult to measure – but not necessarily less significant.000 tons per year. 1994. then. These conclusions essentially agree with those made by Zoback. because removing species is an irreversible act. As Philip Hoose remarks. Hazen and Sawyer (131) and Fuller and Hetz (132). If this scale of development takes place in a 2-county area. with our collective future as the stakes. Such a development would reasonably be expected to generate about 1. and may be substantially worse. it is possible that the GWPC maintains lower standards for public safety and health than these other evaluators. Therefore. And. the working hypothesis for this risk assessment is that future impacts may be inferred from historical performance. from a development of 10. because one cannot predict which species are expendable to the system as a whole. American University. However. . "Plants and animals cannot tell us what they mean to each other. The record of New York State officials in managing gas industry impacts has been no better than those of officials in neighboring states. they disagree with the assessment of the Ground Water Protection Council (GWPC) (36). Ecosystem decline and species loss risk extinction Warner 94 (Paul Warner. the sediment run-off into nearby waterways would amount to at least 80. Therefore. p 177) Massive extinction of species is dangerous. Dept of International Politics and Foreign Policy. National Research Council. cumulative chemical and biological impacts from the gas industry in New York may be predicted for projects of any scope by combining incident statistics from Part 1 with related health and environmental impacts from Part 2. then significant spikes in emergency room visits for respiratory complaints and other aspects of “down-winder’s syndrome” in those counties should be anticipated as well. Kitasei and Copithorne (110).
The Duke researchers said that the presence of methane likely was due to its escape from faulty drill casings. is one of the first to conclude that hydraulic fracturing is polluting ground water.csmonitor. Duke University researchers analyzed methane gas in 68 private ground-water wells across five counties in Pennsylvania and New York." In shale-gas extraction. http://www. The hydraulic fracturing approach has dramatically increased available US reserves of natural gas by unlocking gas that was previously trapped in shale formations from the midAtlantic to Texas to Colorado. which is being published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.Link – Fracking causes methane contamination A peer reviewed study shows drinking water contamination from fracking CSM 11 (May 9th. a new study has found. The peer-reviewed study.com/Environment/2011/0509/Fracking-for-natural-gas-is-polluting-groundwater-study-concludes) Methane levels were 17 times higher in ground water near areas where shale-gas "fracking" wells had been drilled in Pennsylvania. study concludes. water is mixed with chemicals and sand and is injected at high pressure deep into shale formations. But environmentalists and local residents have long claimed that fracking pollutes ground water with methane as well as with chemicals in the injection fluids. The study cited "evidence for methane contamination of drinking water associated with shale-gas extraction. compared with areas where no gas drilling had occurred. . which then releases natural gas. And it’s likely to be used as ammunition in court by those opposing drilling in sensitive watersheds. Fracking' for natural gas is polluting ground water.
suggesting that drilling waste and chemicals could migrate in ways previously thought to be impossible. his reporting on BP and the Deepwater Horizon tragedy was nominated for an Emmy. or underground disposal. investigative journalist for ProPublica.contradicts the oft-repeated notion that deeply buried rock layers will always seal in material injected underground through drilling. mining. a biology professor at the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and one of the study's authors. the water had mixed with brine that closely matched brine thought to be from the Marcellus Shale or areas close to it. mineral-rich fluids deep beneath Pennsylvania's natural gas fields are likely seeping upward thousands of feet into drinking water supplies.org/article/new-study-fluids-frommarcellus-shale-likely-seeping-into-pa-drinking-water) New research has concluded that salty. conducted by scientists at Duke University and California State Polytechnic University at Pomona and released today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.Deep Earth Drilling Even fluids injected deep beneath the ground will migrate upwards – contamination is limited now. "The biggest implication is the apparent presence of connections from deep underground to the surface. Though the fluids were natural and not the byproduct of drilling or hydraulic fracturing. and there was no correlation between where the natural brine was detected and where drilling takes place. Researchers found that. No drilling chemicals were detected in the water. it will get into the drinking water Lustgarten 12 (Abrahm. the finding further stokes the red-hot controversy over fracking in the Marcellus Shale. Still. the brine's presence – and the finding that it moved over thousands of vertical feet -. "It's a suggestion based on good evidence that there are places that may be more at risk. a National Press Foundation award for best energy writing. but if fracking increases. . July 9th New Study: Fluids From Marcellus Shale Likely Seeping Into PA Drinking Water.Link . in some cases. A paper published by the journal Ground Water in April used modeling to predict that contaminants could reach the surface within 100 years – or fewer if the ground is fracked.propublica. MA in Journalism from Columbia. his investigation into fracking for natural gas was recognized with the George Polk award for environmental reporting. tested drinking water wells and aquifers across Northeastern Pennsylvania." said Robert Jackson. Impact The study." The study is the second in recent months to find that the geology surrounding the Marcellus Shale could allow contaminants to move more freely than expected.
fracking. These pits are easily punctured. . gastrointestinal organs. kerosene. various salts and ammonia compounds. skin. Many of the chemicals Colborn was able to identify harm the nervous system.’’40 Water sources are also at risk from spills of truckloads of chemicals transported on and off drilling sites. ‘‘half of them from waste pits that had leaked chemicals into the ground. She is also an independent investigative environmental journalist. formaldehyde. and eye . kidney problems.36 The gas industry and drilling proponents maintain that gas wells go far enough below aquifers and surface water supplies in ‘‘tight. immune system damage. ethylene glycol (automotive antifreeze). since ‘‘*t+ypically 30 to 40 percent of the water used for drilling and fracturing returns to the surface highly contaminated.531929) Some of the fracking chemicals identified include diesel.’’ less permeable rock to prevent horizontal hydrofracking from contaminating drinking water sources. usually lined with plastic. Alabama. birth defects. where the wastewater evaporates in the open air. state officials documented approximately 800 water contamination cases from oil and gas operations. wastewater laden with high levels of radioactive elements released from deep underground present even more problems.org/10.2010.Chemicals cause health problems Fracking is unsafe – causes hazardous groundwater contamination Chapman 10 (Karen Charman.35 Many are known to cause cancer. Ohio and *more recently+ Pennsylvania’’37 in areas where drilling is taking place. developmental problems. cardiovascular and blood disease. “Trashing the Planet for Natural Gas: Shale Gas Development Threatens Freshwater Sources. and death. New Mexico.” Capitalism Nature Socialism. http://dx.42 . ‘‘more than 1. and spills often overflow during a heavy rain. Underground chemical drift isn’t the only problem with horizontal hydro. brain. respiratory system. 72-82. 21:4. Likely Escalates Climate Destabilization. and biocides. However. which contains the carcinogen benzene. managing editor of Capitalism Nature Socialism.000 . reproductive disorders.’’38 Gas drilling companies construct on-site pits. because few if any water treatment facilities can handle radioactively contaminated water. and there are increasing reports of drilling companies being fined for carelessness or deliberate dumping. 24 November.39 In New Mexico. cases of contamination have been documented by courts and state and local governments in Colorado.doi.41 In New York. .1080/10455752.
It is used by the gas industry as a lubricant. a minority (e. ppt) concentrations of DBNPA. 10222-01-2) is a drilling and fracturing fluids. bentonite.2.4-trimethylbenzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons including naphthalene. mouth. who may experience chronic effects months to years after exposure. is emerging in the medical literature (81). More recently. It comprises a considerable percentage of Airfoam HD. However. and is a known mutagen (i. It is harmful to a variety of aquatic organisms. the surfactant 2-butoxyethanol (2-BE).2-dibromo-3-nitrilopropionamide (DBNPA) and 2. eyes.org/Risk%20Assessment%20Natural%20Gas%20Extraction-1. is a surfactant used in many phases of gas exploration and extraction. polyethylene glycol and mineral oil) pose no significant hazards to humans or other organisms as utilized in gas extraction processes. esophagus and stomach. Propargyl alcohol is a sensitizer in susceptible individuals. In the environment. In combination. it takes much less of these chemicals to exert toxic effects when they are used together. 2-BE: 2-Butoxyethanol (2-BE). 2011. estuarine and marine organisms. the ability of EGBE at extremely low levels (ppt) to cause endocrine disruption. nose. and is especially dangerous to Eastern oysters (74). especially in drilling muds. it has induced occupational asthma and/or contact dermatitis in workers exposed to it. citric acid. CHO Chemistry & Biochemistry Department State University of New York. Several other additive chemicals. potassium carbonate. acetophenone. This chemical causes burns to tissues in skin. DBNPA and DBAN appear to work synergistically. this chemical has long been known to be selectively toxic to red blood cells. Along with its antimicrobial effects. and so impose relatively modest hazards (58). diammonium peroxydisulfate and hydrochloric acid. inhibited development in children and death Bishop 11 (“Chemical and Biological Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Extraction in New York” Ronald E. commonly used for air-lubricated drilling (79). 3252-43-5) is a biocide often used in combination with DBNPA. DBAN: Dibromoacetonitrile (DBAN) (CAS No. Heavy Naphtha: Heavy naphtha (CAS No. 111-76-2). a few chemical products in widespread use. 2. it is lethal to “water fleas” (Daphnia magna). In the environment.Chemicals destroy envrionment/health There are so many dangerous chemicals that could leak into groundwater – they cause cancer. also known as ethylene glycol monobutyl ether (EGBE) (CAS No. they end up greatly diluted. hemorraging. acetic acid. the aromatic molecules benzene. Chesapeake Bay oysters are killed by extremely low (parts-per-trillion. (Note: CAS No.) Glutaraldehyde: Glutaraldehyde (CAS No. leading to hemorrhaging (80). guar gum. 64741-68-0) refers to a mixture of petroleum products composed of. with effects on ovaries and adrenal glands. xylene. which are killed by doses near 1 ppm (78). refers to a unique identifier assigned to every known substance by the Chemical Abstracts Service Registry.. sodium perborate tetrahydrate. but as used by the natural gas industry. and is especially biocide finding increasing use in corrosive to the eyes (73). trucking accidents while they are being transported to remote well sites via rural roads.D. Of those which have.sustainableotsego. the doses at which these biocides become toxic are significantly lower than when they are used separately. and lubricants containing heavy naphtha. they are considered in some detail in this section. it is very toxic to a wide variety of freshwater. These include the biocides glutaraldehyde. http://www. where it induces developmental defects throughout the life cycle.. although the specific degree of potentiation has not been publicly reported. In particular. including ammonia. toluene. among other compounds. 111-30-8) is a biocide used widely in drilling and fracturing fluids. especially fathead minnows. a sensitizer in susceptible people. This chemical is only moderately toxic to aquatic organisms. multiorgan failure. 59). 1-butanol.g. pose significant hazards to humans or other organisms.2-dibromoacetonitrile (DBAN). Bishop. respiratory and skin toxin. it causes them to rupture. thioglycolic acid. Its human and environmental toxicity profiles are similar to that of DBNPA. Propargyl Alcohol: Propargyl alcohol (CAS No. a substance that may induce or increase the frequency of genetic mutations) (70. are moderately or acutely toxic to humans or aquatic organisms when encountered in concentrated forms (60 – 69). and staging at well sites. rainbow trout and mysid shrimp at low (40 to 50 ppb) concentrations. algae. 71). methanol.2-Dibromo-3-nitrilopropionamide (DBNPA) (CAS No. 2-propanol. zooplankton and steelhead trout were found to be dramatically harmed by glutaraldehyde at very low (1 – 5 ppb) concentrations (72). This material is hazardous . Ph. except that DBAN is also carcinogenic (75). DBNPA: 2. sodium chloride. including rare multi-organ failure (77). It is readily inhaled or absorbed through the skin.e. the corrosion inhibitor propargyl alcohol. well below the limit at which this chemical can be detected. because they remain dangerous even at concentrations near or below their chemical detection limits .. Easily absorbed through the skin. In other words.htm) The majority of chemical products used by the gas industry have not been fully tested for human or environmental toxicity (58. 1. from which it is a metabolic product (with the release of cyanide). It is a sensitizer. with harm to algae and test fish observed with doses over 500 ppm (80). hemicellulase. Precisely because of the hazard these chemicals pose even when they are extremely diluted. 107-19-7) is a corrosion inhibitor that is very commonly used in gas well construction and completion. it is a potent respiratory toxin effective at parts-per-billion (ppb) concentrations (70). including in exploratory wells. College at Oneonta March 28. ethanol. limonene. More significant issues with these chemicals would be anticipated from storage sites. in humans it is selectively toxic to the liver and kidneys (76).
arsenic. Barium (Ba): Barium is a toxic heavy metal commonly found in Marcellus shale well flowback fluids (85). 4-NQO: In addition to the above shale constituents. several of these flowback fluid and cuttings components (83) are discussed below: barium. but its ability to impair neurological development in children at very low (1 ppb) concentrations makes it a toxicant of special concern. Sensitization-induced asthma and allergy have also been reported. Wastewater Pollutants Figure 1: Wastewater Pollutants (84) Because of to their significant toxicity at low (ppb) concentrations. in which it impedes air transport through the skin. It has also been associated with high blood pressure (87). heart. especially in stomach and lung tissues (90). Arsenic (As): Arsenic. These components make flowback fluids hazardous without any added chemicals. In ppb concentrations. radon and benzene. ingestion. chromium. also found in Marcellus shale (89). It is not used as a drilling additive and is not known to occur naturally in black shale. Marcellus shale contains several toxic substances which can be mobilized by drilling. one chemical compound was consistently encountered in flowback fluids from Marcellus gas wells in Pennsylvania and West Virginia: 4-nitroquinoline-1-oxide (4-NQO) (96). radium. lead. they could possibly be due to fracture intensification domains in New York’s subsurface geology (55). Exposure to elevated doses by inhalation. in a majority of groundwater samples collected in New York State by USGS investigators (50 – 52). it is dangerous at parts-per-trillion (ppt) concentrations. The most sensitive targets for lead toxicity are the developing nervous system. well below its levels reported in gas well flowback fluids (96). in these reactions. several components are toxic to terrestrial and aquatic organisms. This is one of the most potent carcinogens known. However. chromium. benzene and technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials. Chromium (Cr): Chromium. whether the high levels of radon in drinking water may be related to past or present oil and gas development in those locales has never been studied. radon is of special concern because as a gas it is extremely mobile. These include lead. lung. Benzene: Benzene. more toxic) barium salts. particularly of potassium dichromate or strontium chromate (the hexavalent form. may be an essential nutrient required in extremely small doses (μg per day). but arsenic produces adverse effects in every tissue against which it has been tested. Several of the mixture’s components are known to cause or promote cancer. Exposure to soluble salts (not the sulfate). gastrointestinal. particularly for inducing cancer of the mouth (97). and it is intensely radioactive (94). used as a weighting agent in drilling muds. including uranium. However. If released to soil or groundwater. developmental and neurological symptoms (90). may induce drops in tissue potassium levels. the major hazard posed by chromium is as a carcinogen. the peripheral vascular system. another component of black shale (83). Flowback Fluids: Irrespective of chemical additives used for drilling. and by this mechanism it is selectively toxic to the heart and kidneys (86). and its tendency to bio-accumulate. a known shale constituent (83). radium-226 and radon-222 (93). exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after tobacco smoking (95). Of these. especially amphibians. along with very high levels of sodium chloride (83). has also been known as a poison for hundreds if not thousands of years. and the fact that drill cuttings are often not removed. Further. Technologically Enhanced Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (TENORM): The use of lubricants and “slickwater” additives along with hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas production have been shown to mobilize naturally occurring radioactive materials. especially brain. but rather are buried on-site. the blood and cardiovascular systems. due to the multiple modes of action of lead in biological systems. the primary hazard from this compound is due to its proven ability to cause acute non-lymphocytic leukemia (92). but the biological system it supports is not currently known. Arsenic is harmful below one part per trillion (ppt) in water.238. and is a confirmed carcinogen. and are often among the analytes most easily measured by potential waste fluid treatment plant operators (Figure 1). reproductive. arsenic. forming radioactive scale on metal parts (such as the drill “string”) which then are subsequently brought to the surface (57).e.to a host of microbes. it could potentially affect any system or organs in the body. which are susceptible to damage from its nuclear decay. barite (barium sulfate). plants and animals (82). Exposure by inhalation or ingestion typically results in migration to the lungs. at very low concentrations. However. Lead (Pb): The poisonous nature of lead has been known for centuries. barite is converted to more soluble (i. no studies have been published to date with respect to what chemical interactions account for its consistent presence in flowback fluids. The most sensitive target tissue appears to be skin. absorption or inhalation. barium. skin or eye contact may lead to respiratory. as found in shale rock) (91). and kidney (88). . and the kidney. which may occur by ingestion. was briefly considered above as a component of heavy naphtha. However. This has been identified as one of the greatest challenges facing the American gas industry today (94). Radon was detected at levels above 300 pCi/L (a drinking water limit proposed by the USEPA). reacts with radium salts in shale. uranium.
which provides evidence of the credibility of the current research design. These results suggest that policies that intend to prevent pollution exposure stemming from unconventional natural gas development should increase the regulated/allowable dis.500 babies.ple of permits as an example. There are no other known studies. doctoral student at Cornell school of applied economics. These re. This translates to a cost of $2. (2009) find that smoking in utero increases LBW by 0. increased small for gestational age by 17% and reduced 5 minute APGAR scores. With unconventional natural gas development expanding throughout 31 states. Even if only the same number of infants were exposed in 2011. These results suggest that natural gas wells close to pregnant mothers’ residences increased LBW by 25%. Some specifications not shown suggest that exposure is still detectable within 3 or more miles from the residences of pregnant women (results are available upon request from author). we would expect to see 379 additional LBW infants. to date.4 million in infant health costs associated with 2 years of natural gas development. This is likely to be a lower bound given that 2.618 additional wells were drilled in 2011 (DEP. This paper provides evidence that exposure within at least 1. there is likely to be many exposed babies resulting in a nationwide increase in LBW. that is still a cost of $4. July) This paper provides the first estimates of the effects of unconventional natural gas development on infant health.6 million. if all of these permits were drilled prior to birth.. 2010). or just under 2. an increase that could be valued at $19.sults are robust across a variety of specifications.089 or a 2% increase in the overall prevalence of LBW in NJ during their study period. The strength of this approach is in exploiting a natural experiment that controls for unobservable characteristics.2 million and accounts mostly for infants born after gas development in 2010.Chemicals hurt infant health Infant birth rate decreased drastically with proximity to natural gas wells – medical costs for this are high – from a small region in Pennsylvannia just starting drilling. Unfortunately. there were 21. linking NGD directly to human health at this scale. A recent report from the Institute of Medicine estimates that the cost to society of low birth weight and premature birth is $51. .tance between drilling activity and nearby residences.5 miles is very detrimental to fetal development. dissertation: “Unconventional Natural Gas Development and Infant Health: Evidence from Pennsylvania”. costs would be $2. Currie et al.21 Due to unconventional natural gas development occurring only recently in Pennsylvania.5 km of a permit or existing well. when compared to pregnant mothers’ residences that are close to a future well (permit). Behrman and Butler).18 percentage points on a baseline of 0.600 per infant for the first year of health care costs (in 2005 dollars. the number of infants observed close to existing wells before birth is quite small.646 infants born within 2. but not implausible given the estimates found in the literature for air pollution impacts on LBW. The estimates in this paper suggest that. For comparison. Using the sam. we do not have any studies in other states to determine the number of infants exposed within these proximities to be able to determine the nation-wide costs associated with the infant health impacts of unconventional natural gas development.2 million each year Hill 12 (Elaine L. These impacts are large compared to mothers smoking.
it is 95 percent gravity fed. the new era of dirty fossil fuel extraction now threatens the water supply of the financial capital of the world. 21:4.New York City is at high risk New York is at high risk of drinking water contamination – it’s water supply is unfiltered Chapman 10 (Karen Charman.doi. the amount of natural gas in the Marcellus was estimated at as much as 516 trillion cubic feet. That’s because most of the bottom third of New York State*including the New York City watershed west of the Hudson River*sits atop the Marcellus Shale. Likely Escalates Climate Destabilization.20 up from previous U.19 In 2008.18 A key element in keeping the New York City water supply clean is the fact that much of upstate New York is not industrialized or intensively developed. 15 Ninety percent of New York City’s water comes from the Catskill Mountains. managing editor of Capitalism Nature Socialism. 24 November. Overall.” Capitalism Nature Socialism. still considered an engineering marvel. a vast expanse of sedimentary rock several thousand feet below the surface of the land extending into eight states. http://dx.2010. Geological Survey estimates in 2002 of just 1.S.org/10.5 billion to protect its drinking water. a little over a hundred miles north and west of Manhattan.3 trillion cubic feet. 72-82.14 New York City boasts the largest unfiltered surface water supply in the world. Relying primarily on the natural cleansing processes of its largely rural and forested 1. deteriorating.17 Though the system is old. In a stunning irony of capitalist greed. New York City has invested or allocated $1. and in need of repair. and often described as New York State’s single most valuable asset.21 The new estimate has prompted some to dub the Marcellus ‘‘the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.’’ .969-square-mile watershed to purify the water. She is also an independent investigative environmental journalist.16 This system serves 8 million people in New York City and another million in adjacent upstate communities*approximately half of the state’s residents.1080/10455752. “Trashing the Planet for Natural Gas: Shale Gas Development Threatens Freshwater Sources.531929) New York*the plight of the PCB-laden Hudson River and other trashed waterways immediately within and surrounding New York City notwithstanding*is famous for the abundance and purity of its fresh water supplies.
"The health care sector needs to not only add their voices to the debate on the environmental impacts of energy.000 adults have asthma. Collins is the Teresa Heinz Professor of Green Chemistry and Director of the Institute for Green Science at Carnegie Mellon University.Economy Turns case – the health problems caused by fracking cause huge care expeditures. Almost 75 percent of the nation's health care expenditures are for treatment of chronic illnesses. In Pennsylvania alone. peace and prosperity. hurting the economy MarketWire 12 (Energy Policies Should Include Health Protections." for us to voice these concerns and help develop public policies that put human and ecological health first. oil and gas exploration appears attractive to increase jobs and lower energy costs.com/story/energy-policies-should-include-health-protections-experts-say2012-07-12) The evidence on the links between environment and health is strong enough so that we need to look at all policies that have environmental implications with a health lens. the estimated incremental direct cost of asthma in Pennsylvania to children and adults is over $2. many of which are exacerbated or caused by environmental factors. more than 260. heating." stated Gary Cohen." "Nurses and other healthcare professionals are very concerned about the health ramifications of the new energy boom in Pennsylvania and other states. It is important for health professionals to speak out on energy policies and activities and to help redirect America and the world toward the clean energy we can so easily have by changing course. In real time." stated Nina Kaktins from the Pennsylvania State Nurses Association. July 12.Turns Case . According to a report released in 2011 by HCWH. "Fracking is further poisoning. fracking is a global economic disaster. but also to lead in this effort.marketwatch. it is degrading health." As the nation continues to feel economic pressures. such as asthma. but the environmental costs can also be debilitating. to protect public health. cancer and heart and lung disease.3 billion a year." ." stated Terry Collins. http://www. president and founder of Health Care Without Harm. for example. "We believe it is important for us to voice these concerns and help develop public policies that put human and ecological health first. Experts Say. filling and acidifying the oceans. "In reality. the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments (ANHE) and the National Association of School Nurses (NASN). biodiversity.000 children and more than 890.
which was published in the journal Ground Water two weeks ago. More than 5. to drill and frack each well. investigative journalist for ProPublica.000 wells were drilled in the Marcellus between mid-2009 and mid-2010. Tom Myers. an independent hydrogeologist whose clients include the federal government and environmental groups. which contains benzene and other dangerous chemicals.000 pounds of pressure. under more than 10. concluding that fracking chemicals injected into the ground could migrate toward drinking water supplies far more quickly than experts have previously predicted. This view of the earth's underground geology is a cornerstone of the industry's argument that fracking poses minimal threats to the environment.propublica. May 1st. according to the study. safely locked nearly a mile below water supplies. exacerbated by the effects of fracking itself." said the study's author. a National Press Foundation award for best energy writing. Scientists have theorized that impermeable layers of rock would keep the fluid. concluded that natural faults and fractures in the Marcellus. Operators inject up to 4 million gallons of fluid. . But the study.A2: It takes thousands of years Fracking speeds up the pace of groundwater seepage – it will only take a few years to spread Lustgarten 12 (Abrahm." "Simply put. http://www. [the rock layers] are not impermeable. his investigation into fracking for natural gas was recognized with the George Polk award for environmental reporting. New Study Predicts Frack Fluids Can Migrate to Aquifers Within Years.org/article/new-study-predicts-frack-fluidscan-migrate-to-aquifers-within-years) A new study has raised fresh concerns about the safety of gas drilling in the Marcellus Shale. MA in Journalism from Columbia. using computer modeling. could allow chemicals to reach the surface in as little as "just a few years. his reporting on BP and the Deepwater Horizon tragedy was nominated for an Emmy.
The term “keystone” organisms has also been used to describe organisms that play pivotal roles in the trophic structure of an ecosystem (Paine 1966). white birch and seedlings of fir and spruce. and cycle nutrients between the water column and bottom dwelling species. 1995. One mechanism for conferring ecosystem resilience is to establish alternating replacement structures which are switched periodically but which avoid accumulations of excessive (difficult to replace) structure.org/outreach/aquaculture-faq-why-are-oysters-consideredkeystone-species) Filter-feeding bivalve molluscs are considered to be a "keystone species" because of the important ecological services they provide to maintain or improve water quality and clarity. 140) In this context. biologist. Maryland. . “Aquaculture FAQ . and eventually return the forest to mature stands where fir dominate once again (Holling 1973). BIOLOGICAL LOSS.Why are oysters considered a keystone species?” http://www. This latter kind of keystone organism or process has been identified for shallow benthic ecosystems in coastal marine environments. Keystone species are critical to preserving ecosystems Kemp 95 (Michael Kemp. The outbreaks leave spruce. Mollusks are a keystone species University of Delware 9 (November 27th. predation by keystone organisms effectively preserves community structure by relieving competitive pressure between organisms at lower trophic levels or serving to keep lower level predation levels in check (Carpenter 1988). p. For example.Mollusks = Keystone species Mollusks will be destroyed by fracking runoff – that’s Bishop. ecosystems contain key organisms and processes which play crucial roles to insure longterm resilience by modifying the impact on ecosystem structure resulting from environmental changes. In this case. The diversity and abundance of molluscan shellfish populations are often cited as indicators of the environmental quality and overall health of coastal ecosystems. Examples of such “keystone” species or processes have been cited for a variety of terrestrial ecosystems. by they are poorly documented for estuarine plankton systems. periodic outbreaks of the spruce budworm serve to release accumulated ecological structure for temperate coniferous forests by decimating balsam fir. Few if any examples of these kind of key organisms have been identified for estuarine ecosystems.deseagrant.
the depletion of energy supplies. 1990. the worst thing that will happen to earth is not economic collapse. The one process ongoing…that will take millions of years to correct is the loss of genetic and species diversity by destruction of natural habitats. Wilson is less modest in assessing the relative consequences of human-caused extinctions.” Harvard biologist Edward O. Wilson reasons that they can “be repaired within a few generations. no other form of environmental degradation “is anywhere so significant as the fallout of species. or even nuclear war.Biodiversity Impact Biodiversity loss outweighs all impacts Tobin 90 (Richard Tobin. As frightful as these events might be. To Wilson. 22 ) Norman Meyers observes. THE EXPENDABLE FUTURE. . p.
Aff Answers .
air pollution.bbc.washingtonpost. and if this stays intact. and that the wells are properly constructed. you'll bring that slippage forward in time. too. chemical contamination should be avoided. the report concludes that gas contamination should not be a problem .the risk is "very low" ." Fracking is safe – UK Royal Society report New Zeland Herald 12 (July 20th. Fracking safe. Doctors. And concerns about air pollution from the industry often don't acknowledge that natural gas is a far cleaner burning fuel than coal. reports that breast cancer rates rose in a region with heavy gas drilling are false. said Prof Zoe Shipton from the University of Strathclyde. John Beddington." she said. They also say that with good management of waste water. the society worked with the Royal Academy of Engineering to produce a report sought by the UK's chief scientific adviser. and cancer risks. a long way below the level of aquifers.co.co. For example. The report says the risk that fracking will generate significant seismic events is also small.rdmag. The actual explosions are far too small to be noticed at the surface. report says http://www. No water supply contamination – tests show no pollution and regulatory changes have been made just to be safe Washington Post 12 (July 22nd. which would not be permitted in the UK. "If the fluid moves into existing faults in the rock that are close to slipping anyway. or "fracking". gas leakage should not be a problem. Fracking doesn’t cause increased cancer rates or radioactive water – opponents’ claims are just hype AP 12 (July 23rd. But some of the claims have little—or nothing—to back them. researchers told The Associated Press. the Royal Society has found. claims UK science body. http://www. “Experts: Some fracking critics use bad science” http://www. http://www.nz/business/news/article. But scientists say opponents sometimes mislead the public. 'Fracking' safe with strong regulation.com/business/doctors-scientists-say-fracking-criticsmisrepresent-some-facts-to-make-their-point/2012/07/22/gJQAX1nO2W_story_1. Critics of fracking often raise alarms about groundwater pollution.3 event in Blackpool last year that is like a lorry going past your house .com/News/2012/07/Energy-Natural-Gas-Regulations-Experts-Some-fracking-criticsuse-bad-science/) PITTSBURGH (AP)—In the debate over natural gas drilling. they criticise the US practice of leaving it in open ponds. and there are still many uncertainties. One of the world's most respected independent scientific bodies. either.nzherald.uk/news/science-environment-18611647) In the US.in fact the British Geological Survey can't measure below Magnitude 2 in towns because of the traffic.No Contamination Fracking doesn’t cause contamination – major study BBC 12 (June 28.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10821014) The controversial oil and gas extraction process known as hydraulic fracturing. "But the Magnitude 2. is capable of being managed sustainably and without serious risk of groundwater contamination or inducing damaging earthquakes. However. scientists say fracking critics misrepresent some facts to make their point. the companies are often the ones accused of twisting the facts. Fears that natural radioactivity in drilling waste could contaminate drinking water aren't being confirmed by monitoring.html) . concerns have been raised that the gas or the chemicals can enter drinking water supplies. Each well is lined with layers of steel and cement.provided that fracking takes place at a depth of many hundreds of metres. the scientists conclude.
sent to deep-injection wells. and the two cases that showed anything were at background levels. . called flowback.1 million barrels of shale wastewater generated in the last half of 2011. was once being discharged into municipal sewage treatment plants and then rivers in Pennsylvania. or sent to a treatment plant that doesn’t discharge into waterways. Critics of fracking note the deep underground water that comes up along with gas has high levels of natural radioactivity. State environmental officials said monitoring at public water supply intakes across the state showed nondetectable levels of radiation. But in western Pennsylvania. there was concern about public water supplies. about 97 percent was either recycled. An analysis by The Associated Press of data from Pennsylvania found that of the 10. Concerns about the potential problem also led to regulatory changes. the Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority did extensive tests and didn’t find a problem in area rivers. Since much of that water.Another instance where fears haven’t been confirmed by science is the concern that radioactivity in drilling fluids could threaten drinking water supplies.
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