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August 13, 2012 To: Interested Parties Fr: Zac McCrary / John Anzalone Re: Summary of General Election

Polling Results in North Carolina CD-08 Larry Kissell is maintaining a lead over Richard Hudson, despite significant Hudson spending and earned media exposure during the recent GOP primary and runoff. Kissells lead has endured even though he has not yet begun his paid communications plan in earnest. Kissell is not only currently ahead of Hudson, but he also shows a greater ability to expand his support than does Hudson. Given sufficient resources to introduce himself to the 8th Districts new voters and defend against Republican attacks, Kissell certainly has a real path toward a successful re-election. Larry Kissell currently leads his Republican opponent, and shows room for further expansion as voters in the new portion of the district learn about him. Kissell currently leads Richard Hudson by four points (43% Kissell / 39% Hudson). Kissell has maintained a lead over Hudson the past several months even as roughly $1.3 million has been spent on Hudsons behalf, while the Kissell campaign has spent virtually nothing on paid media in that period. Kissell is currently taking roughly 70% of the vote among minorities a solid showing given the new territory Kissell now represents and one that is identical to his 70% support among minority voters in August 2010 polling. Assuming minorities break for Kissell at a level of 90% (which is consistent with his previous races) an additional 5 points could be added to Kissells total pushing his vote share to 48%. Additionally, in the portions of the district that Kissell has previously represented, he is taking 50% of the vote (50% Kissell / 35% Hudson).

Beyond his initial lead, Kissell shows more potential to grow his vote than does Hudson. Given that only a narrow majority of the current district (55%) was represented by Kissell under the previous lines, he has more expansion potential than most incumbents would in a traditional election year. In fact, when voters hear equal amounts of positive information about Kissell and Hudson (profiles below), the Kissell lead expands to 7 points (46% Kissell / 39% Hudson). Even in this dynamic, another 5 points are available to Kissell purely through solidification of minority voters which would push him over 50% districtwide.

Larry Kissell, a Democrat from Montgomery County, is the current congressman, and a former teacher and mill worker. Kissell is a fiscal conservative and a pro-gun independent voice who works with both parties to create jobs by cutting wasteful spending, lowering taxes on small businesses, and fighting policies that ship jobs overseas. Richard Hudson, a Republican from Concord, is a former congressional chief of staff, a small business owner, and a strong fiscal conservative who will stand up for traditional values. Hudson is running to change the way Washington works, take on the liberal Obama policies and improve the economy through cutting taxes and spending.

Additionally, voters who are initially undecided disproportionately break for Kissell in this scenario (33% Kissell / 22% Hudson).

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 General Election voters in NC CD-08, including 10% of interviews completed among cell phone respondents. Interviews were conducted between August 6-9, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is 4.4% with a 95% confidence level.