Foreign Policy 2012

About Foreign Policy 2011


As we seek to educate leaders and policymakers about how to meet the global challenges and opportunities of the 21st century, the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI) conducts briefings for candidates and members of Congress and their staff of both political parties. FPI briefings bring the experience and expertise of Washington‘s leading foreign policy thinkers to members of Congress and federal candidates. The sessions, which can range from an hour to a half-day, are personally tailored to the interests of those being briefed. FPI will make available experts on the major foreign policy challenges facing the United States, including topics such as the Arab Spring, the rise of China, and the Iranian nuclear threat. We are prepared to brief candidates and members of Congress on critical issues ranging from the War on Terror to transatlantic relations, and from the defense budget to democracy promotion and human rights. In conjunction with our briefings, we have developed Foreign Policy 2012, a briefing book available on the FPI website at This document pulls together key points, notable facts and additional resources from leading thinkers in each of the key foreign policy issue areas. FPI will update the briefing book on a regular basis in 2012. To schedule a briefing or suggest additional articles or content for the briefing book, please contact or (202) 296-3322.

About The Foreign Policy Initiative
In 2012 the United States and its democratic allies face many foreign policy challenges. They come from rising and resurgent powers, including China and Russia. They come from other autocracies that violate the rights of their citizens. They come from rogue states that work with each other in ways inimical to America‘s values and interests, that sponsor international terrorism, and that pursue weapons of mass destruction. They come from al Qaeda and its affiliates who continue to plot attacks against the United States and its allies. They come from failed states that serve as havens for terrorists and criminals and spread instability to their neighbors. The United States faces these challenges while engaged in military operations across the globe. The sacrifice of American lives and significant economic expenditure in these conflicts has led to warnings of U.S. strategic overreach, and calls for American retrenchment. There are those who hope that we can just return to normalcy—to pre9/11 levels of defense spending and pre-9/11 strategies and tactics. They argue for a retreat from America‘s global commitments and a renewed focus on problems at home—a reflexive but mistaken response to these difficult economic times. In fact, strategic overreach is not the problem, and retrenchment is not the solution. The United States cannot afford to turn its back on its international commitments and allies—the allies that helped us defeat fascism and communism in the 20th century, and the alliances we have forged more recently, including with the newly liberated citizens of Iraq and Afghanistan. America‘s economic difficulties will not be solved by retreat from the international arena. They will be made worse. In this new era, the consequences of failure and the risks of retreat would be even greater than before. The challenges that we face require 21st century strategies and tactics based on a renewed commitment to American leadership. The United States remains the world‘s indispensable nation—indispensable to international peace, security, and stability, and indispensable to safe-guarding and advancing the ideals and principles we hold dear. The Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI) is a non-profit, non-partisan tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code that promotes:      continued U.S. engagement—diplomatic, economic, and military—in the world and rejection of policies that would lead us down the path to isolationism; robust support for America‘s democratic allies and opposition to rogue regimes that threaten American interests; the human rights of those oppressed by their governments, and U.S. leadership in working to spread political and economic freedom; a strong military with the defense budget needed to ensure that America is ready to confront the threats of the 21st century; international economic engagement as a key element of U.S. foreign policy in this time of great economic dislocation.

FPI looks forward to working with all who share these objectives, irrespective of political party, so that the United States successfully confronts its challenges and make progress toward a freer and more secure future.

Table of Contents
Afghanistan/Pakistan ………………………………………………………………………………… 1 America‘s Role in the World ………………………………………………………………………… 4 Arab Spring …..……………………………………………………………………………………….... 6 Asia Pacific ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 10 China …………………………………………………………………………………………………... 13 Democracy & Human Rights ……………………………………………………………………… 16 Defense Policy ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 19 Europe - NATO ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 23 Iran …………….……………………………………………………………………………………….. 26 Iraq …………….……………………………………………………………………………………….. 30 Israel/Peace Process ……………………………………………………………………….……….. 33 Latin America ……………….………………………………………………………………………... 36 Non-Military Foreign Aid …………………………………………………………………...……….. 39 North Korea …………………………………………………………………………………………… 41 Russia ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 43 Trade …………..……………………………………………………………………………………….. 46 War on Terror/Islamic Extremism ………………………………………………………………….. 48

September 2012 Edition

President Obama made the right decision in December 2009, when he ordered the ―surge‖ of 33,000 additional troops into Afghanistan. Since then, significant gains have been made by using a strategy that combines counterinsurgency (COIN) and counterterrorism (CT). However, these gains remain fragile and reversible, even after the May 2011 killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in nearby Pakistan. Regrettably, President Obama‘s June 2011 decision to withdraw the troop surge by September 2012—two months before the November presidential election—makes it more difficult to secure our gains and expand our success. The precipitous reduction of troops for political reasons risks setting back efforts to ensure that Afghanistan is no longer a sanctuary for America‘s enemies, and counter terrorists and insurgents operating inside Pakistan. In May 2012, President Obama signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) that will govern U.S. action in Afghanistan after Kabul takes control of the country‘s security by 2014, and strictly limit America‘s mission to counterterrorism and training the Afghan military.

Key Points:
 The United States has a vital interest in ensuring that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorists like those who attacked us on September 11, 2001. International disengagement from Afghanistan in the 1990s contributed to the country becoming a ―failed state‖—one that eventually became a Taliban-dominated safe haven for al-Qaeda. Today, failure in Afghanistan will only increase the danger of terrorist attacks against America‘s homeland and vital interests across the globe, and the likelihood that we will be drawn back into the region. Brookings Institution expert Michael O‘Hanlon described the consequences of failure in Afghanistan as a ―Taliban takeover of at least southern Afghanistan; and associated sanctuaries for the world‘s worst terrorist groups, which still want to strike American cities, gain control of Pakistan‘s nuclear arsenal, and provoke another India-Pakistan war.‖ Boosted by President Obama‘s 2009 troop surge, U.S. and coalition forces have gained operational control of larger swaths of territory from the Taliban—in particular, the southern provinces bordering Pakistan. American and allied troops have also killed or captured many senior al-Qaeda leaders, as well as other lower-level terrorists. However, the situation in Afghanistan remains perilous, with entrenched insurgent groups in the east working actively to undermine the security of Kabul. Bolstered by the troop surge, U.S. counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan have been critical to enabling our successful counterterrorism operations in the region—especially in Pakistan. Some have argued that the threat from al-Qaeda and the Taliban can be best met, not by a broad counterinsurgency and state-building effort in Afghanistan, but by the use of actionable intelligence gathering and counterterrorism operations by U.S. Special Forces similar to the mission that killed Osama bin Laden. However, a counterterrorism-based strategy in Afghanistan cannot operate effectively without the strong counterinsurgency campaign that is now in place. Counterinsurgency operations continue to squeeze our enemies into a smaller area, build local security and civil institutions, and provide bases and staging areas from which counterterrorism operations can be launched. The President‘s accelerated surge drawdown endangers the recent gains we have made in Afghanistan and should be reconsidered. Obama‘s decision undermines the U.S. military‘s counterinsurgency campaign and hurts counterterrorism efforts. The precipitous drawdown 1

There have been media reports that the Obama administration seeks even more drastic cuts to troop levels beyond the planned 2012 troop reductions. 3. forces succeeded in hunting down and killing al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. 2011. Afghanistan. On June 22.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. FPI Resources:  ―The War in Afghanistan is Far from Over. The Strategic Partnership Agreement is a laudable guarantee of U. May 25. ―Remembering Why We are Fighting in Afghanistan. U.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. March 23. 6.000 U. April 19. as they did after the 1989 withdrawal of the Soviet Union‘s forces. In 2014. May 29. Fly. During the Lisbon Summit of November 2010. the Afghan National Army (ANA) seeks to have 180. commitment to the future of Afghanistan.  The United States must remain committed to long-term success in Afghanistan—militarily.S.S. Fly and Gary Schmitt. and could lead to higher levels of violence and instability throughout the country. 4. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government. its mission will be strictly limited to counterterrorism and training the Afghan Security Forces.000 U. In order to effectively counter the Haqqani Network and other militant groups in eastern Afghanistan and cement hard-won security gains from the 2010-2011 fighting season in the country‘s south. 2012.S. Afghans fear that the United States and the international community will abandon the country. the United States. The Strategic Partnership Agreement commits the United States to helping to fund the Afghan security forces until 2024. ―The Dangers of an Accelerated Drawdown in Afghanistan: What America‘s Civilian and Military Leaders Are Saying. 2012.S.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Commentary. 2. Prevailing in Afghanistan will require maintaining as high a level of troops in country as possible until the 2014 transition to Afghan control. While the United States will retain a reduced troop presence. Afghanistan will take lead responsibility for providing for its own security. 2012.  Notable Facts: 1. Fly. President Obama made public his controversial decision to withdraw by September 2012 the ―surge‖ of 33. the United States has been a critical part of the NATO-led coalition of over 40 countries in Afghanistan. and NATO allies all agreed on the strategic goal of having the Afghan government and the Afghan security forces fully in-the-lead by the end of 2014.000 troops. troops that he had announced in December 2009. On May 1. FoxNews. and the Afghan National Police (ANP). Since 2001.000 personnel. troops in country throughout 2013.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. 2011. 5. and politically. economically. 2012. the United States will need to keep the remaining 68. and lays the groundwork for America‘s continuing troop presence and access to bases in-country. ―FPI Analysis: Missed Opportunities at the 2012 NATO Summit. 2     . April 2012.will likely prevent further coalition gains in the eastern provinces of Afghanistan. to have By October 2012. ―Reclaiming the Moral Case for Afghanistan.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative.

Council on Foreign Relations.          3 . America. The New York Times. ―Courting Disaster in Afghanistan. June 23. July 12. ―Five Disasters We‘ll Face If U. September 27. 2011. 2012. The Weekly Standard Blog.‖ Marc Thiessen.‖ Frederick and Kimberly Kagan.     Suggested Reading:   ―The AWOL Commander. ―More Afghan Cuts. The Weekly Standard. 2012. Fly. June 23.‖ Jeffrey Dressler.‖ Thomas Donnelly. The Weekly Standard.S. ―FPI Fact Sheet: Success in Afghanistan Is Critical to Prevailing in The War On Terror.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. ―This War Can Still Be Won. Washington Post. February 24. March 19. 2011. March 22. The Wall Street Journal. 2012. 2012. 2012. National Review.‖ Michael O‘Hanlon. ―What It Will Take to Secure Afghanistan. ―What a Difference 11 Years Makes. 2012. ―The Case for Continuing the Counterinsurgency Campaign in Afghanistan. More War.‖ Max Boot. 2012. ―Don‘t Come Home. ―Afghanistan Campaign Is Far From Finished.‖ Shaida Abdali. 2011. Luján (USA). ―Don't Forget Pakistan‘s Liberals. Foreign Policy.‖ Max Boot. ―Retreat – But Whose?‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M.‖ Frederick and Kimberly Kagan. July 4. 2012. The Weekly Standard Blog. 2012. ―Why the Summer of 2012?‖ FPI Director William Kristol. March 20. December 16. 2011.‖ by Major Fernando M. Washington Post. ―FPI Analysis: Leveraging Pakistan to Prevail in Afghanistan. Los Angeles Times. Roll Call. December 7. Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots. ―Picking a Winner in Afghanistan.‖ Sadanand Dhume. 2011.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. June 16. June 9. 2011. Retreats from Afghanistan. February 1. June 2012. May 1.

including those in Iraq and Afghanistan. exports. global leadership and protectionism. this funding helps to support the spread of democracy and human rights abroad. including war-funding. 4 . Today.‖ President Reagan called America ―the last best hope on earth. militarily.5% of the federal budget. Such a course only serves to weaken our national security and diminish economic opportunities for our citizens.   Notable Facts: 1. Funding for the State Department and affiliated agencies has increasingly been used to support civilian missions in war zones and unstable states. security. and achieve greater diplomatic and military coordination.3% of America‘s gross domestic product (GDP). America has suffered when its leaders embraced the path of diminished U. The United States should maintain vigorous support for democratic allies.America‘s Role in the World The United States remains the world‘s indispensable nation─vital to international peace. not in the fatalism of America‘s inevitable decline as espoused by some. and oppose regimes that threaten American interests and subvert the cause of freedom. Benjamin Franklin proclaimed. America cannot afford to turn its back on its international commitments and allies—the allies that helped us defeat fascism and communism. and the alliances we have forged with other nations. and economically─to ensure more secure and prosperous future. that work to strengthen ties with our allies through better trade relations to increase U. U. The U.S. the capacity-building of partner militaries. and crucial to safeguarding and advancing the ideals and principles we hold dear. America should pursue policies that promote political freedom and stand against human rights abuses across the globe—abuses that mock the universal principles we hold dear. America‘s global system of alliances and extended deterrence has helped to prevent the outbreak of major foreign aggression and keeps open the flow of global trade and commerce. the United States holds a special place in world history.S. From the misguided isolationism of the 1930s to the counterproductive Smoot-Hawley Tariff at the onset of the Great Depression. ―Our cause is the cause of all mankind.‖ The United States must maintain robust engagement in the world─diplomatically. but rather in a renewed commitment to strong and enduring American global leadership. budget of national defense. the challenges we face require a vision and policies anchored. 2. and that encourage all nations— particularly China and Russia—and international institutions to act responsibly in their deliberations and activities. today consumes 4. and the stabilization of nations— and thus prevent rise of ungoverned territory that could foster militants and terrorists. As such. and stability. ―America stands alone as the world‘s indispensable nation.‖ And President Clinton said. economic difficulties will only deepen by pursuing a protectionist retreat within our borders.S. America‘s Founding Fathers and Presidents have frequently highlighted America‘s unique role in the world. the United States upholds a system of international peace and prosperity. At home. For example. Comprising less than 1. For that amount. Key Points:  Founded on the universal cause of freedom.S. to advance freedom and strengthen our security.

2011. Remarks at The Heritage Foundation. 2012.‖ Marion Smith. and engaged in foreign missions abroad. 2011. These interventions have been supported by U. ―Not Fade Away. ―U.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan.   Suggested Reading:  ―Leadership: America‘s Critical Foreign Policy Role.S. 2011.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. ―Future of U.‖ Elliott Abrams. 2012. However.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. Foreign Policy. June 20. The New Republic. 2011.S. February 11. November 16.S.3. ―Defending Defense: Defense Spending. After the Cold War.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. Military Might Shouldn‘t be Underestimated. Presidents of both parties.     5 . economic.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. particularly since 1898. July 5. and military power in the world. China‘s rise and Russia‘s resurgence pose a long-term competitive challenge to America and the international order. ―Why the World Needs America. September 29. The United States has repeatedly rejected calls for isolationism and non-interventionism. and The Heritage Foundation).‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. April 25. February 2. July 5. 2012. Washington Post. ―Neither Isolationist Nor Noninterventionist: The Right Way to Think About Foreign Policy. Safer.‖ Condoleezza Rice. January 11. 2011. Remarks at the Brookings Institution. the United States emerged as the predominant political.‖ Senator Marco Rubio. Foreign Policy: in Praise of Nation-Building. and The Heritage Foundation). ―Conservative Foreign Aid. the Super Committee. ―The Price of Power. 2011. FPI Resources:  ―America Has Made the World Freer. 2011.S. The Heritage Foundation.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M.‖ Max Boot. 2012. Los Angeles Times. The Daily Caller. 2012. January 15. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―The Importance of U. and Wealthier.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. Foreign Policy Initiative. The Weekly Standard.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Ron Paul Is Wrong About Defense Spending and the Deficit. CNN.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. ―FPI Analysis: In Defense of America‘s International Affairs Budget. October 14. Fly and FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate. 4. March 14. The New York Times. and the Price of Greatness. February 24. November 28. National Review. 2012. 2012. The Wall Street Journal. January 27.        “Nation-Building. Our National Pastime. ―Defending Defense: A Response to the Obama Administration‘s Preview of the Fiscal Year 2013 Defense Budget Request.

democratic governments anchored in the rule of law and respect for human rights. Though there will be setbacks and challenges as these nations evolve at different paces and with varying leadership. and that will advance the general reform effort significantly in the short and long term. political and economic openness. Even though the pace and success of the reform movements in each nation will be uneven. Should the newly-elected government in Egypt fail to meet voter expectations on improving the economy. withdrawn in the event that the democratic process has been subverted by the respective government. The Arab Spring offers the region the opportunity to establish more moderate. and those now violently suppressed in Syria. Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups have exploited this environment to gain support. other competing political parties are now being formed to participate in the democratic process. or technical assistance—that have helped other nations to transition to democracy. while the well-organized Muslim Brotherhood won 235 out of 508 seats in the 2011-2012 Egyptian parliamentary elections. the rule of law. in time. The long-term success of democratic and economic reform is a key antidote to Islamic extremism. high unemployment. and Islamist parties did well in Tunisia‘s election. Key Points:  Decades of authoritarian rule in the Middle East and North Africa have produced a stagnant political and economic culture characterized by rampant corruption. for civic institutions to mature. At the same time. job-creating economies. particularly from the region‘s disaffected youth. Libya. diplomatic recognition.Arab Spring After decades of authoritarian rule in the Middle East and North Africa. the bipartisan 9/11 Commission Report noted the importance of broader cultural change in the region in countering Islamic extremism: ―Tolerance. and elsewhere. the United States should aid and empower the long-term democratization process as much as possible. and anti-Americanism.‖ The United States has an enormous interest in the successful outcome of the broader reform movements underway in Tunisia. Libya. For example.     6 . Indeed. and to spur. political repression. the United States should pursue the sorts of policies—including economic aid. and economic stagnation. and for the governing authority to be accountable to the will of the people. the region‘s waves of mass protest movements give hope to populations choked by corruption. dynamic. Syria. Egypt. if necessary. Egypt. Reformers in the Middle East and North Africa should always know that the United States stands with them in their struggle against authoritarianism. political oppression. The United States must support such developments. the extension of greater opportunities to women— these cures must come from within Muslim societies themselves. Reformers in places like Tunisia. and side with the reformers against the autocrats. Within this process. deserve support from America and its allies. The United States and its allies should pursue polices specifically designed to advance the promise of the Arab Spring. political space is being opened for citizens to discuss and debate issues. It is unfortunate that President Obama has ―led from behind‖ and repeatedly failed to grasp the opportunities presented by the Arab Spring. it will likely face a competitive field of opposition parties in the next election. such support should be reviewed and.

In Egypt‘s June 2012 presidential runoff. Several of monarchies in the region have responded with power-sharing constitutional reforms. However. After forty years in power. After street protests throughout Tunisia erupted in Bouazizi‘s name. which Saudi Arabia fears may be backed by Iran. 846 were killed in Egypt. 2012. As of publication. Mohammed Morsi. ―FPI Bulletin: Syria Needs Intervention—Not Another Annan Plan.‖ FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate and Policy Analyst Evan Moore. Tunisia held the Arab Spring‘s first democratic elections on October 25.Notable Facts: 1. Fly. 2011. On July 7. 2012. The dictator‘s ouster was the culmination of the NATO-led intervention that began in March 2011 to protect Libyan civilians from the Gaddafi regime‘s security forces. 3. 2011. dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country on January 14. July 23. Roughly 1. a member of the country‘s Muslim Brotherhood and a former parliamentarian.000 civilians. including in Egypt. 4. 2. FPI Resources:  ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Take Immediate Action to Establish Safe Zones in Syria. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad continues to wage war against the country‘s various antiregime opposition groups. with an overall voter turnout of 65 percent. and Syria. Another element of the Arab Spring has been Saudi Arabia‘s support of regional Sunni monarchies. July 24. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad‘s security forces have killed more than 19. President Obama demanded that Assad step down in August 2011. protests spread throughout the Middle East and North Africa.3%. Morsi won 51. Bahrain. 2010. 6.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. 7. The country‘s newly-elected civilian leaders are now working to write a national constitution.8 million Libyans cast ballots. set himself on fire in a police station to protest harassment from authorities and the unlawful seizure of his cart. some dictators—seeking to perpetuate their hold on power—have steadily increased the use of lethal force against peaceful mass protesters. Libya.7% of the vote over Shafiq‘s 48. ―How Will History Judge Obama on Syria?. against protesters from their Shia-majority populations. and end the Assad regime‘s campaign of indiscriminate violence against its own people While 224 people were killed in Tunisia‘s revolution. beating Libya‘s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist factions. 5. but has failed so far to rally a collective response by the international community.‖ Open Letter Organized by the Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. former Prime Minister under President Hosni Mubarak. Shortly after Ben Ali‘s ouster in Tunisia. narrowly beat Ahmed Shafiq. in which former interim prime minister Mahmoud Jibril won a plurality of seats in the country‘s interim National Assembly. observers are hopeful that the pressing need for the new Egyptian government to fix its faltering economy will mitigate Morsi‘s Islamist agenda. 8. 2011. Libya dictator Muammar Gaddafi was killed by Libyan rebels on October 20. Much of the Arab Spring has been characterized by street protests by reformers. The Arab Spring began in Tunisia on December 17.   7 . a 26year-old street vendor. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government. when Mohamed Bouazizi. July 3. Libya held its first post-Gaddafi election. 2012. 2012. namely Bahrain. Yemen. Foreign Policy Initiative. While these results are disappointing for the liberal revolutionaries that overthrew the Mubarak regime.

The Wall Street Journal.‖ Open Letter Organized by the Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 2012. Washington Post. Institute for the Study of War. 2011. Foreign Policy. 2012. 2012. ―The Missing Piece. Should do to Help Syria. ―Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition. February 25. October 1. June 29. February 17. July 13. Institute for the Study of War. 2012. The Wall Street Journal. July 8. July 6. Fly and Gary Schmitt. ―Helping Libya Take its Next Steps. ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President to Take Action to Halt Violence in Libya. November 8. ―NATO in Libya.‖ Ann Marlowe. 2012.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Operations in Libya.‖ Elizabeth O‘Bagy. ―The United States‘ Chance for a Do-Over with Egypt.‖ Open Letter Organized by the Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. June 7. ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President to Take Action to Halt Violence in Libya. ―What Obama Must Do in Syria After the Failed Annan Plan. 2011. July 12. Washington Post.‖ Open Letter.‖ Elizabeth O‘Bagy. 2011. The Weekly Standard. April 10. 2011. 2012. ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge House Republicans to Support U. ―Disorganized Like a Fox: Why It's a Great Thing that the Syrian Opposition is Fragmented. 2011. ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Take Action Against Assad. 2012. ―Syria‘s Maturing Insurgency. ―Syria‘s Political Struggle: Spring 2012. ―A Triumph for Democracy in Libya.         8 . 2012. June 21. Kramer. June 20.‖ Open Letter.‖ Charles Dunne.‖ Open Letter. and William H. David J. March 15.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M.‖ Richard Wike and Bruce Stokes. 2012.         Suggested Reading:  ―What the U. 2012. ―FPI Fact Sheet: The Case for Intervention in Syria.S. July 12.‖ Joint Bulletin of the Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies.S. March 15.‖ Joseph Holiday. July 10. 2012. 2012. ―American Power and the Libya Naysayers.‖ Ali Suleiman Aujali.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. Washington Post.‖ Senator John McCain. ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Take Immediate Action in Syria. 2011. Foreign Policy. IV. Taft. December 19.‖ Jackson Diehl.

―The Case for Arming Syria‘s Opposition. Hadley.‖ Former President George W. Freedom House‘s Freedom at Issue. 2012. Remarks on the Floor of the U.         9 . May 2.‖ Ray Takeyh.‖ Stephen J.S. 2011. ―Prison Island. May 30. ―Where Democracy Is America‘s Second Choice. The Wall Street Journal. 2012. Foreign Policy. March 5. 2012. ―The Arab Spring and American Ideals.‖ Tom Malinowski. May 8. ―U. 2012. Washington Post.‖ Francisco Martin-Rayo.‖ Senator Joe Lieberman.‖ Courtney Radsch. Washington Post. ―Turn the Tide Against Bashar al-Assad. Foreign Policy. March 8. 2012. May 17. ―On the Situation in Syria.‖ Senator John McCain. May 17. 2012. 2012. March 23. Washington Post. Senate. May 7. ―Slamming the Door on Press Freedom in Bahrain. ―What Does the Syrian Opposition Believe?‖ David Pollock. The Wall Street Journal. Bush. 2012. Must Take Sides to Keep The Arab Spring From Islamist Takeover.S.

Although the Obama administration‘s decision to station 2. and expand both security dialogues—such as December 2011‘s U.Asia Pacific China‘s increasingly provocative behavior is challenging long-term security and stability in the wider Asia-Pacific region.500 Marines in Australia is a positive signal. and potential conflict—all of which comes with costs likely to be greater than those required to keep the peace. Taiwan. engage emerging partners. Both democracies are bound together by increasingly shared values. such as through missile defense or submarine sales.    10 . South Korea. diminished economic and political sway. Allowing the balance of power in a region of the world so vital to U. Because the Chinese air force is rapidly overshadowing Taiwanese capabilities. and increase arms sales to Japan.S. and India. and security fronts. The United States and India should reinvigorate their partnership on a wide range of strategic issues. pursue an expanded regional missile defense network to counter China‘s ballistic missile threat. Australia and Japan have announced changes to their defense strategies in response to China‘s growing military might. will complement America‘s security engagement in the region. and stand to reap great benefits from deeper cooperation on economic. Washington should immediately begin discussions regarding selling Taiwan the F-35—an advanced 5th generation U. India— which has border disputes with China—has begun to modernize its military.S. face major terrorist threats. Washington must reassure allies and partners that continuing uncertainty over the America‘s long-term defense spending will not diminish American naval and air power in the AsiaPacific. The Obama administration‘s decision not to sell Taiwan new model F-16 C/Ds fighters to upgrade its Air Force vis-à-vis China raised doubts about America‘s commitment to the longtime ally. allies fear that deep ―sequestration‖ defense cuts mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 will constrain America‘s regional military deployments.-built fighter recently ordered by Japan and potentially Australia—as well as explore other means to bolster the island nation‘s defensive capabilities. Australia. The United States should continue its long-standing policy of support for Taiwan. Beijing‘s expansive claims on the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea have pushed even Vietnam closer to the West. To further reassure allies and improve the security situation in the region.-Japan-India Trilateral— and military exercises with likeminded partners. America should avert sequestration cuts to defense spending. such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.S. diplomatic. Washington must now bolster economic and diplomatic ties with longstanding regional allies. interests to shift in China‗s favor is a recipe for instability. Key Points:  The Obama administration‘s so-called ―pivot‖ or ―rebalance‖ towards the Asia Pacific must be accompanied by policies that reassure Asian allies about America‗s ability to maintain its dominant security position in the region and deter China. Progress on economic trade agreements.

March 27. Foreign Policy Initiative. China‘s air forces have bought or built hundreds of new 4th generation fighters—which are comparable to the American-made F-16s and F-15s. November 16. Foreign Policy Initiative. June 4. more than four dozen. including a new stealthy class. it will have underground facilities to safely port as many as 20 submarines. and scores of new amphibious ships.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy.-India Drift. ―FPI Bulletin: President Obama‘s Trip to Australia. Its Navy has acquired 15 guided missile destroyers. 2012.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. 2012. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced at the 2012 Shangri-La Dialogue that the United States will shift 60% of its naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. When built. 2012. China has procured more than 40 new submarines.S. Over the past two decades. a similar number of frigates. Defense Spending. December 2. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Avoiding U. Policy Towards China. ―FPI Analysis: Assessing U.S. 2011.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. and The Heritage Foundation). FPI Resources:  ―FPI Analysis: Overcoming Obstacles to Accelerate the U. ―FPI Bulletin: Obama Can Cut Defense or Pivot to Asia—But Not Both. China also maintains the world‗s largest arsenal of mines to protect its littoral waters. The Diplomat’s Flashpoints Blog. 5. By 2008. the United States and India have inked a landmark civil nuclear cooperation agreement. high-speed.-India Strategic Partnership.        11 .S. 2011. up from just $14 billion in 2000. including attack subs and nuclear-armed ballistic missile subs.Notable Facts: 1. ―Obama Drops the Ball on India. February 15. In 2011.S. June 11. free flows of trade and investment reached unprecedented levels. 2012. Since the early 1990s. February 13. including those surrounding the major new naval base on Hainan Island. Since 2000. 2.4 billion. March 7. total bilateral trade surpassed $43.‖ FPI Policy Analysts Patrick Christy and Evan Moore. and expanded security cooperation and defense trade. Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. India signed its biggest defense deal with the United States so far—a $4. cruise missile-armed patrol craft. China is now moving forward with an aircraft carrier program. 4. Most notably. Finally. ―FPI Bulletin: An Off-Balance Pivot to Asia?‖ FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate and Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. rather than the present 50-50 split between the Atlantic and Pacific. 2012. The Diplomat.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. 6. broadened bilateral relations. ―Defending Defense: China's Military Build-Up—Implications for U.1 billion contract to procure ten C-17 airlift aircraft. 3. 2011.

the Bad. Colonel William Jordan (USA.‖ Dean Cheng and Bruce Klingner. 2011. And Clear: An American Strategy for Asia. Los Angeles Times. ―Failure 2. ―Pivoting and Rebalancing: The Good.‖ Michael Auslin. June 4.Suggested Reading:  ―U. August 30. ―Asia in the Balance: Transforming U. 2012. August 15.‖ Dan Blumenthal with Randal Schriver.0. ―Don't Forget About the East China Sea. Foreign Policy. Military Strategy in Asia.‖ Michael Auslin. Lewis Stern. March 16.‖ Sadanand Dhume. and Walter Lohman. 2012. 2011. Russell Hsiao.). The Diplomat.S. American Enterprise Institute.‖ Senator John McCain. December 6. L.‖ Thomas Mahnken.‖ Daniel Blumenthal. May 3. ―Debating the Pacific Century.. July 2. May 22. and the Ugly. 2011. Project 2049 Institute. ―Asian Alliances in the 21st Century. 2012. 2012. Ret. Mark Stokes.‖ Multiple Authors. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government. 2012. The Heritage Foundation. 2012.–Vietnam Defense Relations: Investing in Strategic Alignment.           12 . et al. National Review. ―Defense Budget Cuts Will Devastate America‘s Commitment to the Asia–Pacific. Center for New American Security. ―America's 'Pacific Pivot' Craze. ―Why Asia Wants America. 2012. and Michael Mazza.C. July 3.‖ Max Boot.S. 2011. ―Build. Hold. October 14. Foreign Policy. The Heritage Foundation. July 18.

and is embroiled with neighbors in territorial disputes in the Western Pacific and South China Sea. and 3) recognize that the best long-term solution for American concerns about Chinese behavior is China‘s eventual democratization and expose the connection between the nature of China‘s communist regime and its behavior at home and abroad. open political discussion is repressed. Australia. U. engage emerging partners. South Korea. there is a need for Washington to articulate.S. and India.S. Taiwan. should: 1) speak out against Chinese human rights abuses in every available forum and at every available opportunity. a promising method to deal with Iran. and an expanded regional missile defense network to counter China‘s ballistic missile threat. fueled by years of strong defense spending and an increasingly assertive foreign policy.S. and Syria. It has shown an unwillingness to exert significant pressure on North Korea. let alone to demonstrate respect for the human rights of its people. has raised concerns throughout the Asia-Pacific region and the world. although multiparty talks that included China (and Russia) were. an integrated long-term strategy towards China that advances America‘s core values and interests—one that not only emphasizes U. cannot completely bridge these differences. A strategy of engagement. they have served as another mechanism by which China (and Russia) continue to 13     . and human rights issues. or pursue substantive political reforms.China China‘s growing economy and global trade ties have not led Beijing to fully embrace market-based economic principles and transparent business practices. and Uighurs in their continuing struggle for human rights and dignity. For example. the U. and Syria‘s atrocities against civilian protestors. Tibetans. even when Pyongyang takes provocative actions with regard to its nuclear weapons and missile programs.-Japan-India Trilateral— and military exercises with likeminded partners. As appropriate. commitment to its allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific. Security Council action against Iran‘s rogue nuclear activities. diplomatic. policy also should seek to help Asian allies to balance against China‘s increasingly assertive foreign policy and growing military might. In China today. Washington must now bolster economic and diplomatic ties with longstanding regional allies. and Tibetans and other groups face a government-enforced crackdown. The United States should elevate its call for Chinese leaders to respect the human rights of all of its citizens and embrace democratic values anchored in the rule of law. Instead. Beijing has blocked more effective U. and expand both security dialogues—such as December 2011‘s U.S. Key Points:  China‘s increasingly assertive foreign policy has raised concerns throughout the region and the world. conceptually. In response. Beijing targets Taiwan with missiles.N. in practice. It is clear that the United States and China differ deeply on a wide range of economic. but also supports Chinese dissidents. the United States should also seek solutions to major international issues without China. by itself. North Korea. The Obama administration‘s so-called ―pivot‖ or ―rebalance‖ towards the Asia Pacific must be accompanied by policies that reassure Asian allies about America‗s ability to maintain its dominant security position in the region and deter China. Specifically. security. freedom of religion banned. China‘s continued military build-up. 2) establish linkage between American policy towards China and China‘s human rights behavior. the United States should pursue increased arms sales to Japan. clearly and publicly.

Notable Facts: 1. Must Hold China to its Promises in Chen Guangcheng Case. and Beijing should respect and enforce vigorously the intellectual property rights of Americans firms. The U.S. From 2000 to 2011.  The fact that the United States and China are tied together economically should not hinder efforts to ensure that American businesses are treated fairly.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. Instead. Fly and Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. Since the early 1990s. June 5. FPI Resources:  ―FPI Bulletin: An Off-Balance Pivot to Asia?‖ FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate and Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. fleet has decreased. carrier groups throughout the region. it would be a mistake to impose U. Using the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate.S. 2012. which accounts for cost differences between China and the West. But the cost of raising. the Pentagon assessed that China possesses over 1000 conventional short-range ballistic missiles. In an annual report to Congress in 2012. China‘s defense budget grew at an average of 11. The Obama administration has rightly refused to support such efforts. China‘s businesses should operate in a transparent fashion. military spending. 3. Since the end of the Cold War. payload. 2. May 2. China is also developing the J-20. The Pentagon officially estimates that China‘s military-related spending for 2011 amounted between $120 billion to $180 billion. China has dramatically expanded its navy. The Weekly Standard. Foreign Policy Initiative. Moreover. 14    . 5. However. especially its submarine fleet which includes modern attack submarines. training. China‘s officially disclosed military budget for 2012 is set to increase 11.S. and is in the process of increasing their range. making it the second largest in the world. the number of submarines in the U. China‘s economic growth and huge population offer tremendous opportunity for U. the United States. ―Xi Whiz!‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. The Chinese military is also developing a conventional medium-range ballistic missile capability to threaten U. February 15.S. China may be able eventually to sustain a force of nearly 80 submarines. At the same time. During this same time period. Policy Towards China. the Chinese core military budget may well approach $300 billion. given the likelihood that they could lead to a trade war with China.resist efforts to compel their client states. 2012.S. 2012. and equipping a military in China is substantially less than what it costs to field an equivalent American force. working with democratic allies. 2012 ―FPI Analysis: Assessing U. the Chinese air forces.S. with ranges capable of hitting Taiwan. twin-engine fighter aircraft. Foreign Policy Initiative.2 percent over 2011. At its current rate of purchase and production. should seek other avenues to impair these rogue regimes‘ capabilities.S. its currency allowed to float to reflect its market value. have bought or built hundreds of new 4th generation fighters — fighters generally comparable to the American-made F-16s and F-15s.S. February 18. a fifth-generation. in working with China to end such practices. 6. and accuracy. tariffs on Chinese imports. stealth. traditional and naval. 4. companies and benefits for American consumers. in contrast to U. hurting U. which covers the globe.8 percent per year.S. submarine fleet is currently at 53. ―FPI Bulletin: U. China‘s military spending currently focuses on the AsiaPacific region. companies and raising the cost of goods for American consumers.‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork.

2012. ―The Implications of China's South China Sea Activities. April 30. The National Interest.‖ Michael Auslin. and The Heritage Foundation). 2011. The Diplomat. March/April 2011. 2011. Defense Spending.‖ Trefor Moss.    Suggested Reading:  ―U. July 29. 2011.‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. ―State of Injustice. Foreign Policy. Lawmakers Must Fix Pentagon‘s China Report. 2012.‖ Dana Dillon. May 23. 2011. ―The Growing Threat from China's Air Force. Staff Briefing for the Congressional China Caucus.‖ Dan Blumenthal. Chinese Opportunity. ―For China. It‘s All About America. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government.S. ―5 Things the Pentagon Isn't Telling Us About the Chinese Military. 2011. Meet With the Dalai Lama.‖ Michael Auslin. April 3.‖ Bill French and Daniel Katz.S. The Wall Street Journal. July 6.               15 . 2011. June 1. ―Countering Beijing in the South China Sea. June 21. ―American Crisis.S. 2010. ―Defending Defense: China's Military Build-Up: Implications for U. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Stop Ignoring Taiwan. The American Interest. The Wall Street Journal Asia. July 15. ―Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics. May 4. ―Don‘t Discount Chinese Liberty. March 9. ―FPI Bulletin: Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo Puts Pressure on China and President Obama. Foreign Policy. ―FPI Analysis: Time for a Strategic Reassessment of U.‖ Dan Blumenthal and Lara Crouch. 2012.‖ Liu Junning. Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ Amy Chang. Foreign Policy. ―Tipping Point in the Indo-Pacific. 2012. Policy Toward China.‐China Economic and Security Review Commission.‖ Michael Auslin.S. 2012. 2012.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. Staff Research Report for the U.‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. The Wall Street Journal. Foreign Policy.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. President. July 8. ―Indigenous Weapons Development in China‘s Military Modernization. October 8.‖ Aaron Friedberg. Defense News. May 17. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Friends Like These. January 17.‖ Sophie Richardson. 2012. 2011.‖ Karl Eikenberry. ―FPI Bulletin: Mr. June 26. July 6. August 24. The Hoover Institution. March 7. 2012. 2011.‖ Will Inboden. 2012.‖ Michael Auslin. ―Making Sense of Six Chinas.

America remains the world‘s indispensable nation—indispensable to international peace. and indispensable to safe-guarding and advancing the ideals and principles we hold dear. As Burma opens itself to incremental reforms. and Tibetans and other groups face a government crackdown. and for the Communist Party. open political discussion is repressed. policy towards China and Chinese human rights behavior. Despite initial political reforms. As such. and leverage the visibility of international institutions to aim a brighter spotlight on crimes against humanity. and give greater support to the burgeoning protest movement against Putin‘s domination of the Russian state. As Benjamin Franklin observed. America cannot and must not be indifferent to their struggle. the United States should: 1) speak out against Chinese human rights abuses in every available forum at every available opportunity. Those fighting for their freedom should never have cause to question whether America is on their side. and stability. the United States should proportionally ease international pressure only in close and continuing coordination with the country‘s democratic opposition.‖ Today. challenge regimes that subvert the cause of freedom. curtailed press freedom and political expression. In China today. not the Chinese people. The 2012 presidential election. in which Vladimir Putin returned to the Presidency for a third term. the Burmese government is still effectively ruled by military officials in civilian garb. To that end. who strongly control the country‘s politics 16     . Washington should work with our democratic allies to promote democracy and respect for human rights. Ultimately. ―Our cause is the cause of all mankind. Key Points:  The United States should pursue policies that promote political freedom and stand against human rights abuses across the globe—abuses which mock the universal principles we hold dear. by. the Russian government has accelerated a systematic rollback of democratic reforms enacted in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The United States should respond swiftly to activities undertaken by the Kremlin to thwart the democratic process or violate basic human rights inside Russia. The United States should elevate its call for Chinese leaders to respect the human rights of all of its citizens and embrace democratic values anchored in the rule of law. America holds a special place in the world.Democracy & Human Rights Founded on the universal cause of freedom. China is still a country of. 2) establish linkage between U. Turning a blind eye to such undemocratic behavior further weakens democratic forces in Russia and harms American interests. The United States should speak out much more forcefully against these actions. Russia has also ignored its international obligation to establish and ensure a free and open political process inside its borders. and used the power of the state to harass political opponents and media outlets. is a prominent example of the Kremlin‘s complete control of Russian politics.S. In recent years. freedom of religion banned. and 3) recognize that the best long-term solution for American concerns about Chinese behavior is its eventual democratization and expose the connection between the nature of China‘s communist regime and its behavior at home and abroad. In response. security. Dissidents and activists like Chen Guangcheng view the United States as a crucial ally in their fight for democracy and human decency. America must provide global leadership in working to spread political freedom and defend the human rights of those oppressed by their governments.

at best. The Iranian regime has used brutal tactics of repression to prevent another series of widescale demonstrations against the regime. The country‘s newly-elected civilian leaders are now working to write a national constitution. In 2009. 2011. and was prevented from attending his award ceremony. Following the June 12 presidential elections of that year. when Mohamed Bouazizi. and Libya begin to organize themselves. in which former interim prime minister Mahmoud Jibril won a plurality of seats in the country‘s interim National Assembly. even President Obama‘s moral support during the summer of 2009 was. the protesters explicitly asked for American support. 4. a 26year-old street vendor. The 2010 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. and human rights defenders have been imprisoned and executed. 3. dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country on January 14.8 million Libyans cast ballots. 2.and economy. Iranians stormed into the streets in the hundreds of thousands to protest the fraudulent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However. as well make clear that the new governments must respect the rights of all their citizens. 5. In their demonstrations. The Arab Spring began in Tunisia on December 17. Journalists. Tunisia held the Arab Spring‘s first democratic elections on October 25. Liu. If the administration had given the Iranian people more robust aid and support during this critical juncture. On July 7. beating Libya‘s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist factions. 2012. A policy that advances freedom and democracy in the Middle East is entirely consistent with American interests and values.  The United States should embrace and champion the democratic revolutions that are remaking the Middle East. 17 . 2011.‖ She instead called for them to retain and use their leverage to encourage further democratic reforms in a nation that still remains largely shackled by dictatorial strongmen. This resulted in enshrined authoritarian governments that were unresponsive to the needs and aspirations of their people. the United States sought to establish regional stability at the expense of freedom. then the strategic situation in the Middle East might have been dramatically improved. activists.S State Department stated that the 1990 Burmese election results ―were an overwhelming victory for Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party. set himself on fire in a police station to protest harassment from authorities and the unlawful seizure of his cart.‖ Burma‘s ruling military regime refused to honor that election‘s results. For decades. while the United States may not agree with or condone the decisions of these new governments. with an overall voter turnout of 65 percent. Aung San Suu Kyi—the Nobel Prize-winner whose opposition party won over 95 percent of open seats in the country‘s April 2012 parliamentary elections—emphatically urged Washington and the international community to resist ―reckless optimism. and burgeoning radical Islamist movements. the United States should insist on free and fair elections. stifled economies. a signatory of Charter 08—a manifesto calling for democratic reform—was and is imprisoned by the Chinese government. Roughly 1. After the Obama administration lifted a long-standing investment on Burma. As post-revolutionary states like Egypt. which won nearly 60% of the vote and 392 of the 485 seats.  Notable Facts: 1. Beijing also successfully pressured 19 countries to boycott ceremony. even though she was under house arrest at the time of the elections. 2010. the Obama administration sought to diplomatically engage the Iranian regime on the country‘s controversial nuclear program. The U. policy makers should recognize that a democratic state forces leaders to be held accountable to their people. and are still warring against the country‘s ethnic minorities. However. After street protests throughout Tunisia erupted in Bouazizi‘s name. Libya held its first post-Gaddafi election. Tunisia. tepid.

‖ Open Letter Organized by the Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. July 24.S. The Weekly Standard. 2011. February 15. July 27. Washington Post.FPI Resources:  ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Take Immediate Action to Establish Safe Zones in Syria. May 2. 2012. November 8. 2011. 2012.     “Why is Obama Giving Up His Human Rights Leverage Against Russia?‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. ―FPI Analysis: Assessing U. ―FPI Bulletin: U. 2011. July 15.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. March 30. July 17.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. Freedom House‘s Freedom at Issue. ―How Solidarity Spoke to a Nation: Lessons for Today‘s Democratic Insurgents. ―Time for Obama to Stand Up for Human Rights. May 11. Washington Post. Meet with the Dalai Lama. 2012. July 13. ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Take Action Against Assad. President. ―Mr. 2012. July 15. ―Democracy and the Asia Pivot. is Moving too Fast on Burma. ―For Tibetans. 2012.      Suggested Reading:  ―Turning Burma‘s Small Steps into Bigger Ones. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition.S.  ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Take Immediate Action in Syria.‖ Vukasin Petrovic. February 17.S.‖ Open Letter Organized by the Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Freedom House‘s Freedom at Issue. 2012. Policy Towards China. No Other Way to Protest.‖ Open Letter Organized by the Foreign Policy Initiative and Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Democracy Must Be Driven from Below.‖ Karel Schwarzenberg. 2011.‖ Michael Green and Daniel Twining. Foreign Policy Initiative. 2012. December 19. 2012. ―In Zimbabwe.‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. 2012. The New Republic. Fly. July 26. 2012. April 30.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. 2012. July 21. Washington Post. 2012.‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork.‖ Lobsang Sangay. Must Hold China to its Promises in Chen Guangcheng Case.‖ Arch Puddington. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―U.‖ FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. National Review Online’s The Corner. 18     . ―How The Obama Administration Should Follow Up on Its Rhetoric on Rights in China.

S. military capabilities issued an ―explicit warning‖ on military readiness: ―The aging of the inventories and equipment used by the services. the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel‘s assessment of U. Known as ―sequestration.S. the Pentagon now faces cuts of more than $1 trillion over the next decade.S. and the growing stress on the force means that a train wreck is coming in the areas of personnel. current law now mandates additional ―sequestration‖ cuts in the $500-600 billion range due to the failure of the select bipartisan deficit committee to reach agreement on any further deficit reduction. drastic cuts to defense spending resulted in the ―hollowing out‖ of the military. across-the-board cut of more than $500 billion over the next decade. The Navy has 285 ships. and force structure. If sequestration cuts to defense spending are fully implemented. If the current debt deal governs defense policy for the next ten years. On top of this. The fact that F-22 procurement was capped at 187 aircraft is especially worrisome as China develops increasingly capable stealth aircraft and as Russia develops and sells resilient air defense systems. the fewest number since 19  .‖ The American military faces a large and growing gap between the forces it requires and the forces it has. the U.S. Pro-defense policymakers should vigorously oppose such devastating defense cuts. acquisition.Defense Policy In the dangerous post-9/11 world. and other resources needed to carry out any mission and come home safely.S. military have the weapons. with units lacking sufficient personnel. For example. This would endanger U. military in meeting its operational demands. In the 1990s. equipment.  Modernization Needs  Policymakers who support massive cuts in defense spending ignore the findings of a bipartisan panel on U. Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz has stated that the present number of F-22 fighters creates a high risk for the U.‖ this massive reduction in defense spending comes on top of the $487 billion in long-term military cuts already proposed by President Obama in February 2012. the United States must ensure that the men and women of the U.S. and equipment. then the percentage of GDP America spends on defense would fall under 3%─the lowest total in the entire post-World War II era─and the defense budget would not be remotely adequate to secure America‘s interests and preserving the international leadership role that rests upon military preeminence. Armed Forces soon will face an indiscriminate. In total. national security. unless the President and Congress change current law. spending caps are placed on the Pentagon for fiscal years (FY) 2012 and 2013. Key Points: Spending  Under the debt-limit deal. the decline in the size of the Navy. military readiness. supplies. Co-chaired by Bush National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and Clinton-era Secretary of Defense William Perry. However. the defense budget will face catastrophic cuts. escalating personnel entitlements. then the United States will not have the capacity to meet its stated military commitments. and American national security would be significantly weakened. overhead and procurement costs. First. America‘s military is presently equipped for maintaining and preserving global peace rather than protecting the United States against 21st century global threats. Continuing these spending caps over ten years will result in $487 billion in cuts to the regular defense budget.

it articulates a vision for the Pentagon‘s future that only accounts for the first of two rounds of deep cuts mandated by the debt-limit deal. The Air Force is smaller and its inventory is older than at any time since its inception in 1947. it will be during the ―lame-duck‖ session of Congress following the November elections. that‘s $55 billion out of a $1. leaving the fleet with only ten carriers in the intermediate two-year period.. Former Secretary of Defense Gates strongly cautioned against massive defense budget cuts: ―If you cut the defense budget by 10%. military] are not the problem. Congressional observers believe that if this deadlock is to be resolved. military flies the same basic planes (e. Ford is not expected to be commissioned until 2015. Although the Navy currently has 11 carriers. 4. Since the end of the Cold War..S. the U. and employs the same basic ground systems (e. The Bush administration deployed a limited missile defense system in Alaska and California to protect the U. which would be catastrophic in terms of force structure. 2.. Trident ballistic missile and Los Angeles-class attack submarines.S. America‘s military has operated at a far higher operational tempo than it did during the Cold War. The Navy has fewer ships than at any time since 1916. 7. The Air Force. and our forces when they are deployed. Navy and Army are 30% to 40% smaller than they were during Desert Storm. B-1 and B-2 bombers and a variety of support aircraft). President Obama unveiled a controversial strategic guidance document to reorient America‘s long-term defense planning. national security interests.‖ The United States spends more money on personnel costs ($157 billion in 2011) than on weapons procurement ($151 billion) and the imbalance is likely to grow in future years. Enterprise will be decommissioned in 2013. The alternative budget submitted by House Republicans attempts to block the first year of sequestration cuts by replacing them with alternative spending reductions. Aegis-equipped destroyers and cruisers.. Bradley fighting vehicles.S. On the one hand. homeland from such threats. Gerald R. On the other hand. F-15. Notable Facts: 1.S. President Obama‘s Fiscal Year 2013 defense budget proposal to Congress ignored the reality of sequestration. Missile Defense  The United States should support robust missile defenses to protect the homeland. F-16 and F/A-18 fighters. With rogue nations like North Korea and Iran acquiring more sophisticated. completely punting the responsibility of undoing the trillion-dollar cut—or implementing it—to Congress.S. Black Hawk and Apache helicopters) that it did at the end of the Cold War. the United States should restore production of the F-22.. including the planned deployment of a new missile defense network in Europe and proposed deployment on the East Coast. the U. Today. sails the same basic ships (e. America‘s friends and allies. to defend America and our allies against the emerging threat of Iran‘s long-range and intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities.4 trillion deficit.S. 5. 6. Nimitz-class aircraft carriers). longer-range missile systems. but before sequestration takes legal effect on January 2.S.g. and maintain funding for the Navy‘s 313-ship plan. missile defense has taken on much greater importance.America‘s entrance into World War I.S. Congress has mandated that the Navy have no less than 12 aircraft carriers. 2013.g. U. Abrams tanks. However. 3. 20 . including 12 aircraft carriers. thereby making it even harder to increase our power-projection capabilities.‖ In addition to other critical investments. The Obama administration should continue robust support for missile defense. while the military has been busier than ever. B52. its size and strength have declined. [The men and women of the U. Senate Democrats have also not attempted to offset or stop sequestration‘s impact.S. and the U.g. In January 2012. This is well below the 313-ship level that the Chief of Naval Operations has called a ―floor. it stresses the enduring importance of the Asia-Pacific region to U.

Foreign Policy Initiative. updated periodically.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. 2011. The Heritage Foundation). 2012. 2012. National Review Online.‖ House Armed Services Committee.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. ―Defending Defense: The Dangers of Deep Defense Cuts: What America‘s Civilian and Military Leaders are Saying.S. ―Why Conservatives Should Fund and Support a Strong National Defense. POLITICO. The Wall Street Journal. Foreign Policy Initiative. 2012. ―Defending Defense: Warning—Hollow Force Ahead!‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. The Heritage Foundation). The Heritage Foundation).‖ Congressman Howard P. ―Buck‖ McKeon. 2012. May 7. ―Defending Defense: Sequestration‘s Shadow on the Defense Industrial Base.‖ Arthur Brooks. ―Ryan‘s Budget Protects Defense. July 12. The Heritage Foundation). 2011. Washington Post. July 22.‖ Senator Jon Kyl. 2012. The Heritage Foundation). ―Saying No to Sequestration.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. National Review Online’s The Corner. 2012. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Defending Defense: A Response to the Obama Administration‘s Preview of the Fiscal Year 2013 Defense Budget Request. The Weekly Standard. Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. Foreign Policy Initiative. May 23. Edwin Feulner.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. 2011. ―Defending Defense: Sequestration Must Be Stopped. ―Defending Defense: China's Military Build-Up: Implications For U. May 15. ―Syria and Obama's Strategic Box.‖ FPI Director Eric Edelman and Dov Zakheim. 2012. ―The Danger of Obama‘s Inaction on Sequestration. Fly and Policy Analyst Evan Moore. ―Defending Defense: Defense Spending. The Heritage Foundation. The Weekly Standard Blog. March 27. November 16. The Heritage Foundation). Foreign Policy Initiative. Defense Spending. and the Price of Greatness. ―Obama‘s Defense ‗Pivot‘ Masks Shrinkage. 2012. May 17. January 15. and William Kristol.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute. 2012. July 21. 2012. July 24. July 30. ―The Price of Power.‖ Defending Defense Project (American Enterprise Institute.FPI Resources:  ―Real Leadership on Defense. March 7. January 27. Fly. the Super Committee.‖ by FPI Executive Director Jamie M. July 27. Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ Gary Schmitt and Thomas Donnelly. 2011.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. 2012.             Suggested Reading:   ―Sequestration Resource Kit. 21  . The Heritage Foundation).

2012. June 7. The Weekly Standard. ―CNO Article Raises Doubts About Joint Strike Fighter. March 15. AOL Defense. Roll Call. ―Nearing Coffin Corner: U. 2012. ―A Budget Strategy that Courts Disaster. Navy Shipbuilding Plan: Assumptions and Associated Risks to National Security. 2012. 2012.‖ Thomas Donnelly. ―The Obama Way of War. 2012.‖ Steven Bucci and Alison Acosta Frazer. 2012. Testimony before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations. ―Indefensible: The Sequester‘s Mechanics and Adverse Effects on National and Economic Security. 2012. The Weekly Standard. July 19. ―A Path to Security.‖ Mackenzie Eaglen.‖ Dov Zakheim. April 18. The Weekly Standard. March 21. July 18. American Enterprise Institute. January 21.‖ Mackenzie Eaglen. Air Power on the Edge. 2012. March 24. ―Slashing America's Defense: A Suicidal Trajectory.‖ Mackenzie Eaglen.‖ Mackenzie Eaglen. American Enterprise Institute. Commentary.S.‖ Bipartisan Policy Center. ―The Past Decade of Military Spending: What we Spent. January 24. January 2012.‖ Gary Schmitt and Thomas Donnelly. ―Fix Defense Sequestration—Without Tax Increases.‖ Max Boot. ―Panetta Plays Chicken. What We Wasted.             22 . 2012. 2012.‖ Mackenzie Eaglen. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government. 2012. January 5. AOL Defense. May 12. July 9. ―Sequestration Hurts Small Business More than Big Business. 2012. The Heritage Foundation. and What We Need.‖ Mackenzie Eaglen and Douglas Birkey. ―The U. ―Obama's Shift-to-Asia Budget Is a Hollow Shell Game.S.‖ Gary Schmitt and Thomas Donnelly.

left our allies feeling betrayed. Obama undermined Washington‘s relations with the democratic states of ―New Europe. terrorists seek to disrupt our way of life. land. while NATO has been an indispensible partner in Afghanistan. Slovakia. a resurgent Russia.000 troops. and sea forces to meet current and future threats. The threat of tyranny did not disappear after the Cold War but rather fragmented into new dangers and challenges. The United States and European Union must continue to embrace a vision of a Europe whole and free. Since 1949.‖ President Obama‘s attempt to ―reset‖ relations with Russia alienated America‘s allies in Central and Eastern Europe. to sustain a deployment of 25. Terrorism. President Bush‘s ―Third Site‖ plans for missile defense in Europe became a symbol of reciprocal U. and a more assertive China are just a few examples of the wide range of challenges the United States and our democratic allies will face in the next decade.NATO As rogue states continue to pursue dangerous weapons. Unfortunately. 23    . nuclear and missile proliferation. and pursue policies that draw Minsk and Kiev further into the West. Thus. it remains vital that the United States and our European allies work together closely to meet these threats. Ukraine is back-sliding on many of the democratic gains won by the 2005 Orange Revolution. The trial and conviction of former Prime Minister— and opponent of Yanukovych in the 2010 presidential election—Yuliya Tymoshenko is one such example. its deployment has exposed major deficiencies in military readiness. the Czech Republic.‖ Many of these countries—including Poland. continued defense budget cuts by NATO members risk crippling the alliance‘s ability to confront the threats of tomorrow and are already hampering current operations. Alexander Lukashenko‘s regime in Belarus—Europe‘s last dictatorship—is in the midst of a full-fledged crackdown against civilian demonstrators following his controversial victory in presidential ―elections‖ in 2010. Key Points:  A strong NATO alliance strengthens U. As former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates noted: ―NATO has struggled. commitment to the security of Central and Eastern Europe. Each has the potential to impact transatlantic economic and military security. NATO—a transatlantic military alliance composed of democratic nations with shared values—has defended the Free World and its values in locales as varied as Libya and Afghanistan.000 to 40. Under the leadership of the proRussian President Viktor Yanukovych. President Obama‘s decision to embrace closer relations with Moscow. coupled with his abandonment of the ―Third Site‖ in favor of the ―Phased-Adaptive Approach‖ system. By moving strategically closer to Russia. security. disruption of sea lanes critical to global commerce. strategic thinking and budgetary decisions should focus on rebuilding air.Europe . A unified and highly capable NATO is more likely to deter aggressors and deal successfully with future security challenges than a NATO that is politically divided and militarily weak. The United States and NATO members in Europe should restore appropriate funding levels to their respective defense budgets. America must voice support for European democrats as they continue to fight against authoritarianism. and Georgia—had contributed significantly to the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. at times desperately.S. and America is confronted by new and resurgent powers. instability in Africa and the Middle East. However.S.

NATO‘s Libya operation showed the limitations of Europe‘s military capabilities. Of the 28 NATO nations. The American Interest. 3. In two decades. National Review Online. As NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen conceded. 2009. ―Open Letter to President Obama on Central Europe.        Suggested Reading:     "The Abandoned Alliance. July/August 2010. ―How Obama Lost Poland. 2012. Christian Science Monitor. ―A Special Relationship in Jeopardy. October 22.S.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. Fly.‖ Luke Coffey. 2012." Michael Kuz. ―The End of the Affair. Foreign Policy. ―NATO in Libya. The Heritage Foundation. 2012. the size of British armed forces has shrunk by nearly 40%. The Weekly Standard. The Commentator. 2009. 2010.‖ FPI Director Eric Edelman. that number has risen to more than 75% today. January 5. accounted for 50% of NATO members‘ defense spending a mere decade ago. 2012.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Fly and Wess Mitchell. Defense budgets across Europe will continue to decrease as a result of the world financial crisis and ongoing debt crisis. 2012.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. September 9.S. ―Joint Bulletin: Maintaining Defense Spending Critical to U. ―Keeping America Safe: Why U. October 1.-U. October 2. Fly and Henry Jackson Society Executive Director Alan Mendoza. Further. Foreign Policy. ―Europe‘s Looming Defense Crisis is a Threat to NATO. July 11.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. Fly and Gary Schmitt. September 19. Bases in Europe Remain Vital. Whereas the U. This year.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. August 8. July 30. The Weekly Standard. May 21. ―A Stab in the Back. with military manpower reduced by approximately 10%. May 25.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. 2012.S. only 16 participated in the Libya intervention.‖ Kurt Volker. ―Beyond Afghanistan. 24  . a Weakened NATO Can Still Write Its Own Future. Special Relationship. ―Why Europe Needs Star Wars.‖ Benjamin Weinthal. 2012.‖ Mark Leonard. FPI Resources:  ―FPI Analysis: Missed Opportunities at the 2012 NATO Summit. 2011. July 24. the British government announced in 2010 that the defense budget will be cut by another 8% over the next four years. 2009. ―The fact is that Europe couldn‘t have done this on its own.‖ 2.Notable Facts: 1. with the Royal Navy bearing the largest burden of downsizing. Foreign Policy. only five of NATO‘s 28 members will meet NATO‘s budgetary requirement of 2% GDP on defense.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M.K.

The Wall Street Journal.‘‖ Ian Brzezinski. ―Democratic Change in Belarus: A Framework for Action.S.  ―Continental Drift and NATO‘s Future. ―Sounding the Alarm: Protecting Democracy in Ukraine. ―The NATO Meeting in Chicago Should be More Than an 'Implementation Summit. ―Keeping New Allies: An Assessment of U. Freedom House. The Hill.‖ Center for European Policy Analysis and Freedom House. May 17. May 17. August 19. 2012. 2011. ―Revitalizing the Atlantic Alliance. May 20.‖ Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government. Financial Times. with Evan Alterman. ―Retooling NATO in Chicago. May 18. April 2011. Policy in Central Europe.‖ Editorial.         25 .‖ Address by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. 2012. Robert Nurick. Freedom House. The Heritage Foundation. 2012.‖ Patrick Keller and Gary Schmitt. May 16. July 15. 2012. Damon Wilson. ―The Security and Defense Agenda (Future of NATO).‖ David Kramer.‖ Center for European Policy Analysis.‖ Luke Coffey. ―The 2012 NATO Summit in Chicago: NATO in Need of American Leadership. ―Promise And Reversal: The Post-Soviet Landscape Twenty Years On.‖ Arch Puddington. September 2011. 2011. June 10. 2011. 2012.

especially on Iran‘s energy. U. and is less likely to divert its national resources toward exporting violence and nuclear weapons. Key Points:  The United States and its allies should support Iran‘s democratic opposition and hold the regime in Tehran accountable for ongoing violations of human rights. Failure to confront Iran over its nuclear program could force Israel to act alone. Iranian-backed Hezbollah could retaliate with terrorism and rocket attacks against Israeli cities. Iran has falsely claimed that organized internal dissent has disappeared.Iran The Islamic Republic of Iran poses a grave threat to the United States and its allies and partners in the Middle East. If the United States fails to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. the United States should: 1) repeatedly raise Iranian human rights violations. It is critical that all options—including the use of military force against Iran‘s contested nuclear program—remain on the table. and 3) support further sanctions against individual regime human rights abusers. In addition to strong support for Iran‘s reform movement. A nuclear-armed Iran would likely have grave consequences: neighboring states have already indicated they would begin their own nuclear programs.     26 . To this end. An Iran that abides by basic norms of human rights and representative government is more likely to pursue its national interests lawfully and rationally. A state sponsor of terrorism. Iran‘s terrorist proxies such as Hezbollah would be emboldened. it would likely go a long way towards addressing international concerns about Iran‘s nuclear and regional ambitions. Tehran has repeatedly threatened Israel‘s national security and supported terrorism against Israeli citizens. The United States and the international community must prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Contrary to the assertions of many skeptics. The International Atomic Energy Agency continues to report that Iran is developing sensitive technology that could be used in a nuclear weapons program. regional and nuclear ambitions. Iran‘s continued defiance of its international obligations over its enrichment activities must be met with greater urgency by the United States and other nations. Israel will likely take preemptive action against Iran‘s nuclear facilities. and international economic and political pressure on Tehran should be increased. and that its rule is unquestioned. Democratic change in Iran is in the long-term strategic interest of the United States.S. whether in bilateral diplomacy or in international forums. the pro-democracy ―Green Movement‖ is still very much alive. 2) press for the release of political prisoners and ask that Iran hold the perpetrators of human rights abuses to account. shipping and financial industries. in an attempt to demonstrate to the world that they have no choice but to accept the revolutionary regime‘s domestic. Though a democratic Iran would not automatically resolve all major political issues. it is only a matter of time before Iran acquires nuclear weapons. the United States should lead the international community in further tightening economic sanctions. and Israel‘s security would be threatened. Iran is continuing to violate its international obligations as it develops the capability to make nuclear weapons on short notice. Without stronger action.

human rights defenders. Iran and Hezbollah have been blamed for ties to similar attacks against Israeli nationals in Cyprus. FPI Resources:  ―The Obama Retreat. soldiers in Iraq. and nations across the Middle East. Lebanon. 7. officials uncovered an Iranian terror plot to kill the Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the United States. 2012.‖ FPI Director William Kristol and Executive Director Jamie M.S. The number of imprisoned journalists. 27  . 2. While satellite imagery shows Iran is attempting to cover-up evidence of testing systems related to triggering a nuclear explosion. The Weekly Standard. June 23. Azerbaijan officials disrupted an alleged Iranian plot to attack U. and training. and weapons to militias in Afghanistan and Iraq to target U. Thailand.‖ FPI Director William Kristol and Executive Director Jamie M. 5. With the secondary facility at Fordow functional. Iranian government forces continue to plan and orchestrate international acts of terrorism. Testifying before Congress. the American Enterprise Institute assessed.‖ Iran uses terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas as proxies for terrorism and instability against Israel. In July 2011. ―Any outcome that does not include . training. The Weekly Standard. which are killing our troops. Fly. the Committee to Protect Journalists reported ―Iran was holding 42 journalists in custody. Iran‘s nuclear program was never materially halted by the 2010 Stuxnet cyberattack. Iranian militia groups were responsible for the deaths of thirteen U. Fly.C.S. the verifiable dismantling of Iran‘s nuclear program and the removal of all nuclear material—at any level—will allow Iran to retain the ability to acquire nuclear weapons fuel in short order.‖ In 2011. the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that Iran could produce sufficient amounts of highly enriched uranium for a weapon in between 26 and 103 days…That window could fall to just 8 days by November 2012. in which plotters—backed by Iran‘s Qods Force. the Spring 2012 negotiations in Istanbul and Baghdad did not give any indications that Iran would be willing to take these steps. 4. 8.S. U. In October 2011. D. an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps—planned to detonate an explosive device in Washington.‖ However. 6. 3. A report by Human Rights Watch in January 2012 stated that ―Iranian authorities in 2011 carried out more than 600 executions and imprisoned more journalists and bloggers than any other country. June 16. 2012. In July 2012. Kenya.‖ Though the regime denies having political prisoners. the most in the world. human rights activists—as noted by the Department of State—have been able to identify at least 900 languishing in Iranian prisons. and Turkey. then Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen stated: ―Iran is very directly supporting extremist Shia groups [in Iraq]. Iranian government forces have supplied explosive devices. there is ample reason to believe that Iran is continuing to delay and deceive the international community about the true nature of its nuclear program. and Israeli officials on their soil. In 2012. India. and political activists in Iran rapidly increased since 2009. financial support. In December 2011. forces. In May 2012. Notable Facts: 1. Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi said at least 42 lawyers had faced government persecution since June 2009. Iran—the chief ally and supporter of the Assad regime—continues to provide Syria with arms.S. ―No Iranian Nukes. Israel accused Iran and terrorist proxy Hezbollah for orchestrating an attack against Israeli tourists in Bulgaria that killed five and wounded dozens.

May 18. 2012. The American Interest. ―Toppling Iran's Unsteady Regime.‖ Michael Makovsky and Blaise Misztal. ―Don't Throw Iran's Democrats Under the Bus. ―Inflation and Iran's Regime. Fly and Gary Schmitt. March 25. 2012. The Wall Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal. Foreign Policy.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative and Freedom House. 28               . July 12. Iraq. May 13. 2012." Reuel M.‖ Reuel Marc Gerecht. ―The Case For Regime Change in Iran: Go Big—Then Go Home. Fly and Matthew Kroenig. 2012.‖ Emanuele Ottolenghi. 2012. 2012.‖ Maseh Zarif. The Wall Street Journal Europe. Egypt. May 29. The Wall Street Journal.‖ Michael Singh. January 17.‖ Editorial. ―On Iran.‖ Yuval Porat. 2011. Foreign Affairs. 2012.‖ Yassamin Issapour. ―Obama's Iran Loopholes. Financial Times. April 12. Washington Post. Washington Post.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. It‘s Time for Obama to Set Clear Lines for Military Action. and Afghanistan.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. 2012. 2012. ―How Iran Steams Past International Sanctions. ―Iran Has No 'Right' To Enrich Uranium. and Estimates. Bipartisan Policy Center. April 9. 2012.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. May 23. July 13. 2012. ―Iranian influence in the Levant.‖ Blaise Misztal. ―Oil Sanctions Against Iran Will Not Be Enough.‖ Robert McNally. July 23.‖ Claudia Rosett. 2012. ―How Washington Encourages Israel to Bomb Iran.‖ Patrick Clawson. Data.    Suggested Reading:  "The Most Dangerous Man in the World. July 4. 2012. 2012. The Weekly Standard. March 30. August 20. ―Update on Iran‘s Nuclear Program. ―The Sources of Iranian Conduct. The Wall Street Journal. 2012. ―Iranians Have Democratic Values. The Wall Street Journal. ―Foreign Policy Initiative/Freedom House Analysis: The Green Movement Returns. 2012. July 2. Gerecht. The Wall Street Journal Europe.‖ Sohrab Ahmari. April 13. ―The Iranian Nuclear Program: Timelines. July 9. 2012.‖ American Enterprise Institute and Institute for the Study of War. American Enterprise Institute. ―Time to Tighten the Noose on Iran. June 27. 2012. ―FPI Fact Sheet: The False Promise of Negotiations over Iran‘s Nuclear Program. July 8.

and Joe Lieberman. March 8. 2012. ―Meeting the Challenge: Stopping the Clock. Foreign Affairs. The Wall Street Journal. ―America's Iranian Self-Deception. February 1. ―Closing Tehran's Sanctions Loopholes. The Wall Street Journal. ―Time to Attack Iran. March 1.‖ Matthew Kroenig. 2012. March 8. 2012.‖ Bipartisan Policy Center. 2012. 2012. Lindsey Graham.‖ Frederick Kagan and Maseh Zarif.‖ Robert Joseph. ―Resigning to Iran. The Wall Street Journal Europe.‖ Mark Dubowitz and Jonathan Schanzer. ―Iran Can't Be Allowed Nuclear 'Capability'‖ Senators Robert Casey. National Review Online. February 27.      29 . January/February 2012.

The Obama administration‘s decision to withdraw all U. The decision not to secure a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) beyond 2011 is a dramatic failure of the Obama administration. Key Points:  Substantial progress has been made in Iraq. In the fall of 2008. and to the further repudiation of terrorism and Islamic radicals. President Obama‘s decision to withdraw from Iraq empowers Iran. troops could have helped to secure Baghdad‘s political and strategic orientation towards the West. Although Iraqis today still face political. 30 . economic and security challenges. Even so. poorly trained and ill-equipped Iraqi security forces. and low oil production. their numbers will be insufficient to this task.S. There was wide-spread understanding among U. Moreover.S. democratic.S.S. Iran has spent much of the post-2003 reconstruction period attempting to influence or intimidate Baghdad by arming and aiding Shia sectarian militias. that an American military presence in Iraq beyond 2011 would be required to maintain the security achievements resulting from the surge. and allied efforts for an historic transformation of the region—a change that leads to governments that respect individual freedom and human rights. military forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 risks endangering the hard-won security gains of the 2007-2008 surge of U. forces to remain in Iraq until the end of 2011. and external threats and influence. Sectarian tensions remain. A residual force of as many as 20. and leaving Iraq vulnerable to internal destabilization. and the political process is at times sclerotic. Iraqi government officials have been forced to make accommodations with Tehran in order to preserve Iraq‘s internal stability. as well as with their Iraqi counterparts.S. Iraq still faces difficult challenges as it emerges from decades of dictatorship. Maintaining a strong U. troops into the country. prosperous Iraq can play a larger beneficial role in the region. Iraq has made progress towards establishing a more stable democratic state in the heart of a region experiencing transformative revolutions. an Iraq allied with the United States boosts broader U. military and administration officials.000 U.S.Iraq With the critical assistance of the United States. an always grid-locked parliament.    Notable Facts: 1. While the State Department will have thousands of personnel—many of them contractors—in Iraq after 2012. A stable. the United States and Iraq concluded a Status of Forces Agreement that allowed U. to an atmosphere that sparks profound economic reform and opportunity. and to defend the country from external threats until the Iraqi military was trained and equipped to fully perform this mission. it is worth recalling how Iraq looked just a few years ago: widespread sectarian violence. presence incountry would have kept Baghdad strategically oriented towards the West. Because the United States has left before the Iraqi military could be properly trained and equipped. frequent high-profile bombings staged by al-Qaeda. The broadcast of open political debate and the sight of repeated elections in former totalitarian Iraq will likely add fuel to the reform movement active in neighboring nations Syria and Iran.S. Those militias still pose a serious security threat to Iraq.

News & World Report.S. 2012. ―FPI Fact Sheet: The Case for A Continued U. For the immediate future. Military Presence in Iraq After 2011. July 5.S. 4. Institute for the Study of War. forces would withdraw by the end of that year. 2011.     Suggested Reading:   ―Iraqi Distress Signals. December 14. American Enterprise Institute. ―FPI Bulletin: Bringing the Iraq War to an Irresponsible End?‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. ―Foreign Policy Experts Urge President Obama to Reconsider Troop Drawdown in Iraq.2. Washington Post. 31       . and the secular al-Iraqiya list led by former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi actually won the most seats of any party in the parliament. ―Iraq‘s Recurring Political Crisis. Foreign Policy. ―Why the U.‖ Frederick Kagan. Should Reverse Course on Iraq. 2011. the Obama administration did not recognize or reciprocate those advances until many months later. 2012. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Defeat in Iraq. December 24. The Weekly Standard. 2011. American efforts in response have so far been weak or non-existent. 2012. Henry Jackson Society. U. ―John McCain on Iraq: Losing the Peace. President Obama formally announced that all U. military presence after 2011. The Wall Street Journal. July 26. Fly. The Weekly Standard. Negotiations became mired in Iraqi domestic politics. FPI Resources:  ―Iraq Stands at the Brink of Disaster.S. Iran has used a wide variety of means—including proxy militant groups—to sway or pressure Baghdad. and Marisa Cochrane Sullivan. ―Blind in Baghdad. 3. 2011. September 15. ―Political Islam and the Battle for Najaf. Fly and Policy Director Robert Zarate. 2011.‖ FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate. Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ Danielle Pletka and Gary Schmitt. ―Is Iraq Lost?‖ Frederick and Kimberly Kagan. 2011.‖ Open Letter. 2012. Kimberly Kagan. November 7.S. While that coalition still exists in the Iraqi government. The Wall Street Journal. 5.‖ Michael Knights. September 15. February 16.‖ Editorial.‖ Interview. and ultimately collapsed after the administration proposed keeping only a token force of less than 5.000 troops in-country. December 16. 2012. Summer 2010. 2012. February 24. January 23. ―Was Iraq Worth It?‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M.S. Nouri alMaliki‘s security-focused party dominates his Islamist coalition partners. Iraq will continue to need support from the United States as it builds a military capable of defending its sovereignty and stability from outside states and internal threats.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. July 16. 2011. On October 21. Although Iraqi leaders had signaled their desire to negotiate for a U. The Iraqi Council of Representatives elected in 2005 was dominated by religious and sectarian Shia parties.‖ Ramzi Mardini.‖ Ayad Jamaluddin.

American Enterprise Institute. The Weekly Standard Blog. Critical Threats Project.   32 . ―Retreating With Our Heads Held High. September 19. 2011. 2011. ―Losing Iraq?‖ Max Boot. ―Iraq Threat Assessment: The Dangers to the United States.‖ Frederick Kagan. Iraq. October 21. The Weekly Standard. May 2011. and Mideast Stability of Abandoning Iraq at the End of 2011.‖ Frederick Kagan and Kimberly Kagan.

about building. Although the United States said it will veto the request. In particular. the Obama administration has publicly supported the idea of a Palestinian state within two years.‖ noting that those negotiations ―will not happen—and their terms will not be set—through speeches. Key Points:  The United State should not seek to impose preconditions for the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.-Israel relationship to be mutually beneficial. (4) impose safe zones in Syria to protect embattled civilians. or about anything else. It is in America‘s interest to help ensure that Israel remains safe. independent state. strong. statehood risks dissuading the Palestinians from peace negotiations. in the absence of a comprehensive peace agreement. Even Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid acknowledged that such preconditions are counterproductive to securing peace: ―The place where negotiating will happen must be at the negotiating table— and nowhere else. In the long term. but also from Iran and Syria.‖ Israel needs a Palestinian partner that is not only willing to negotiate sincerely. a democratic and moderate Syria is in America‘s interest and would benefit regional peace.S. and Israel with secure and defensible borders. However. the United States should also seek to strengthen moderate forces in Lebanon and work vigorously to ensure the success of the reform movement in Syria. To advance an enduring peace. and abide by previous peace agreements. and (5) examine limited retaliatory airstrikes against Syrian military targets. but also has the capacity to enforce an agreement that would provide both the Palestinian people with a demilitarized. To hasten the exit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. (3) provide the full range of assistance to vetted Syrian opposition groups.Israel/Peace Process Israel faces continuing threats not only from Hamas and Hezbollah. (2) work to impose further unilateral and multilateral sanctions on the Assad regime for its ongoing human rights abuses. the United States should make it clear that the prospects for long-term peace remain remote so long as groups like Hamas refuse to recognize the existence of Israel. Washington should: (1) continue to demand that the Syrian president immediately step down. the Palestinian Authority submitted a request to the United Nations to become a formal state. While Israel remains in contact with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Iran is continuing to sponsor terrorism. and vital to the preservation of a democratic ally facing extraordinary security challenges. The United States should demand the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement prior to granting the Palestinian Authority statehood at the United Nations. In September 2011. Successive American presidential administrations have understood the U. and secure. President Obama‘s call in 2011 for Israel to renew negotiations with the Palestinians based on its 1967 borders is unhelpful to concluding a viable peace agreement. renounce violence. and possibly forcing Israel to surrender important territory. and to march towards nuclear weapons-making capability in violation of its international obligations. or in the media. or in the streets. The consensus between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak 33     . Israeli leadership has a strong consensus on the need to defend the country against the existential threat posed by Iran‘s quest for nuclear weapons-making capability.‖ Reid added: ―No one should set premature parameters about borders.

Michael Oren. Rather than focus his attention on demonizing Israel. 2012.‖ Charles Krauthammer. However. Washington Post. government offices. FPI Resources:  ―Why Israel Has Doubts About Obama. 2012. May 10. the Israeli leadership considers the capability to produce nuclear weapons as the threshold for a strike—a point that Iran is rapidly approaching. President Obama attempted to persuade the Prime Minister that the United States would take military action against Iran if necessary when Netanyahu visited Washington in March 2012. and a stock market. Following the 2006 parliamentary election. In the West Bank.‖ Senator John Barasso. Although Fatah and Hamas are negotiating terms for power sharing and a timetable for an interim government followed by elections. infrastructure. the Obama administration insisted on a complete freeze of Israeli settlement activity as a prerequisite to peace negotiations. separation of powers. From 2009 to 2010. 4. 5. Suggested Reading:  ―Correcting Obama‘s Middle East Failure. control of the Palestinian territories was split between Abbas‘s Fatah party controlling the West Bank and Hamas controlling the Gaza Strip. he has embarked on positive internal developments within the Palestinian state. ―Echoes of ‗67: Israel Unites. 3. May 14. it was extended for one year. The Bush administration recognized that natural growth in these settlements would require new construction. Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has attempted to build the institutions of a functioning state—including strong security forces. The Palestinian Authority‘s legislative council and president have well exceeded the democratic mandate of their terms.‖ 2. Notable Facts: 1.‖ FPI Director Dan Senor. significant progress still remains elusive. March 5. but asked that these new buildings not create a de facto expansion of Israeli territory–that is.S. Washington Times.‖ but not ―outward. no elections were held in January 2010. Moving Beyond Oslo. While the Obama administration tends to focus on the near-acquisition of a nuclear weapon as grounds for military force. but there has been large economic growth in the West Bank over the past five years as Israeli security measures have eased. The Wall Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal. The parliament was elected in February 2006 and its term should have ended in January 2010. July 19. July 26. Although President Mahmoud Abbas was elected in January 2005 for a term that ended in January 2009. The economies of both the West Bank and Gaza Strip are reliant on foreign aid. 34    . 2012. ―What Happened to Israel's Reputation?‖ Israeli Ambassador to the U. there is a distinct difference between Israel‘s and the Obama administration‘s ―red lines‖ for action. 2012. However.‖ Rabbi Benny Elon and Yossi Beilin. 2012 ―After 20 Years. and neither parliamentary nor presidential elections are now scheduled. 6. an expansion ―upward. Palestinian security forces have worked closely with Israel to quell supporters of Hamas.testifies to this shared belief. National Review Online.

2012. Blackwill and Walter B. Policy Review. Commentary. ―The Gaza Flotilla and International Law. ―The Settlement Obsession. July/August 2011.‘‖ Elliott Abrams. ―Israel: A True Ally in The Middle East. Foreign Affairs. August 1. and the Statehood Gambit. 2011.‖ Jonathan Schanzer.      ―PM Netanyahu's Speech at AIPAC Policy Conference 2012.‖ Peter Berkowitz. Hamas. 2011. ―Fatah. June 2011. ―The End of the ‗Peace Process. Council on Foreign Relations. Los Angeles Times. 35 . March 5. October 31.‖ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Slocombe.‖ Robert D. 2011.‖ Elliott Abrams. May 6. Prime Minister‘s Office.

As Senator Marco Rubio noted. democracy and security funding to the region has been slashed.Latin America America‘s strong presence in Latin America is important to America‘s national security and economic growth. and few new policy proposals have emerged from the current administration. organized crime. policies that serve only to strengthen the current regime. and well36     . In Central America. As a result of the Obama administration‘s increasing neglect of the region. Thanks to globalization. sanctions have the effect of denying funds to the Cuban regime‘s repressive apparatus. Guatemalan officials face increased levels of gang violence. support for Washington has diminished while Chinese. the bilateral free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama strengthen economic and strategic ties with two important democratic partners in the Western Hemisphere.S. It is therefore critical for Washington to do more to strengthen democratic institutions in the region and d e e p en t ra d e t i es with democratic partners. the United States should increase its support for Cuba‘s pro-democracy movement. and embrace real democratic political reform. which it would otherwise use to exert further economic and political control over the Cuban people. The Colombia agreement rewards a stalwart ally of the United States and ensures economic ties with one of Latin America‘s fastest-growing economies. Signed into law in October 2011. the greatest near-term threat to U. The United States should continue to demand that the Cuban government release all political prisoners. The Obama administration has rightly continued implementation of the Bush administration‘s $1. and complex criminal organizations financed by illicit drug trade. The Obama administration should work in greater cooperation with the Mexican government to curb the escalating violence that plagues America‘s neighbor to the south.S. new and diverse sources of foreign investment and trade have decreased the region‘s economic dependence on the United States. Iranian. initiatives remain incomplete. end human rights abuses. a program that targets criminal organizations in Central and South America. Brazil is America‘s second largest Latin American trading partner.S. In the interim. many governments in Latin America have expressed disappointment that the United States has not been more engaged. security lies in Guatemala. and Venezuelan influence has grown. The Panama agreement enhances America‘s longstanding ties with a nation increasingly fearful of the rapidly expanding drug war that is threatening governments across Central America. using tools that have worked well against other tyrannies.3 billion Merida Initiative. Key Points:  The United States must do more to consolidate democratic gains in the region. such as making more effective use of the Internet to undermine the regime. particularly in a post-Castro era. Past U. The United States should boost assistance to democratic allies in the region‘s facing an ongoing war against powerful drug traffickers and criminal gangs. At the same time. Venezuelan petrodollars. The United States should expand exports opportunities to Brazil. Unfortunately. many democracies in Latin America face pressure from autocratic rulers. ―Sanctions are an important tool of leverage for democratic change. As one of the fastest growing economies in the world and the largest economy in the region.‖ Rather. Cuba‘s transition to freedom will not be accelerated by U.

Foreign Policy Initiative. goods (which are sometimes as high as 35%). 37   . ―U. ―Latin America Loses Faith in Obama. 2012 despite his ongoing bout with cancer. and Honduras—home to the world‘s highest homicide rates. 2. Violence related to transnational criminal activity and drug trafficking has made Central America‘s North triangle—including El Salvador.500. AEI‘s The American. March 9. according to the United Nations. 2012. By slashing Colombian tariffs for U. 2012.‖ Juan Williams. April 5. Brazil. reached $101 billion in 2011. 2012. A 2012 report by Freedom House stated that ―media freedom is on the defensive in much of Central and South America. ―Time to Defriend Hugo Chavez. 4. April 13. Colombia and Panama.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative.funded drug cartels. 2011.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. 3. the newly implemented Colombia free trade agreement will increase American exports to Colombia by approximately $1. April 12. 2012. April 25.‖ Governments in Argentina.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. and Ecuador.‖ Roger Noriega. Close to Home. Notable Facts: 1. July 2.1 billion. 5. 2012. The Weekly Standard Blog. September 7. ―Chávez‘s Dangerous Liaisons with Tehran. 2012. ―Will Obama Defend Freedom in the Americas?‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. El Salvador‘s democratically elected government also faces spiraling violence and regional uncertainty. 2012. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will face reelection on October 7. according to the office of the United States Trade Representative. The Wall Street Journal. The United States held a trade surplus with Brazil of $25 billion in 2011. July 15. ―FPI Bulletin: High Time for Free Trade with South Korea. July 2. Bolivia.S. The Weekly Standard Blog. in addition to the repressive governments in Cuba and Venezuela. Foreign Policy. Are Best Kept at Arm's Length. In January 2012.S.     Suggested Reading:   ―Impasse in El Salvador. 2012.‖ Senator Marco Rubio. Mexico announced that the five-year death toll related to organized crime surpassed 47. Guatemala. Iranian companies continue to launder billions in funds through Venezuelan banks and ventures in order to avoid international financial sanctions. ―Castro & Co. Los Angeles Times.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. The Daily Caller. implemented significant restrictions on media freedoms.‖ Washington Post. Bilateral trade with Latin America‘s largest economy. FPI Resources:  ―FPI Analysis: A Latin America Security Agenda for President Obama. 6.

the Narcostate.‖ Editorial. Washington Times. 38 . ―The India of Latin America?‖ Jaime Daremblum.‖ Jaime Daremblum. 2012. 2012. February 13. The Heritage Foundation. ―Latin America Deserves More Attention. ―Hugo Chávez‘s Long Shadow.      ―Time for Latin America to Roll Up Iran Welcome Mat. The Weekly Standard Blog. October 17. 2011.   ―After Chavez.‖ Roger Noriega. The Weekly Standard.‖ Ray Walser. 2011. February 2012. October 20. ―Venezuela‘s Presidential Primary: Capriles Radonski Ready to Challenge Chavez. ―Iran's Gambit in Latin America. 2012.‖ Vanessa Neumann. Foreign Policy. The Weekly Standard. April 11.‖ Roger Noriega. January 11. April 9. 2011.‖ Roger Noriega and Jose Cardenas. ―Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa‘s Washington Post. Assault on Media Freedom. 2012. Commentary. November 1.

In turn. 39 .S.S. in the process.Non-Military Foreign Assistance U. Ukraine. infrastructural development. finance and enterprise development. The Republic of Georgia. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. democracy promotion. agency that awards grants to nations that have shown a commitment to good governance and economic freedom.S. As General David Petraeus. The Obama Administration has worked to change America‘s development model by crafting the first U. jeopardize accomplishment of the overall mission. told Congress in 2011. No doubt. all efforts should be made to ensure that American aid is spent properly and for its intended purpose. such as the Marshall Plan that helped to rebuild postwar Europe and stem the advance of communism. incidents of malaria have been cut by more than in 43 countries. women.‖ Foreign assistance promotes health. ―Inadequate resourcing of our civilian partners could. The U. over the decades. and the Philippines are among the strategically important nations that have received such grants. development policy.  Notable Facts: 1. 3. and freedom of its citizens. economic growth. and children from starvation and disease. This approach emphasizes economic growth and accountability. federal government‘s budget for international affairs represents roughly 1% of total federal outlays.S. non-military foreign assistance plays a critical role in advancing America‘s strategic interests and moral values around the globe. particularly in African nations. it is important to remember that foreign assistance has saved countless men. such aid helps not only to strengthen current U. aid promotes prosperity and opportunity. From major aid programs. but also to develop new ones. U. to today‘s smaller development initiatives. with the aim of creating the conditions in which foreign assistance is no longer needed. For example.S. foreign assistance has helped millions of people.S. and good governance. Funding for democracy and human rights programs currently makes up less than one-tenth of one percent of the total budget.S.S. 4. and 42 million Africans have been enabled to attend school. education. at a time when China and other emerging powers have become more active across the globe. At the same time. American aid has also contributed to increasing prosperity in many nations and. And. then-commander of U. Key Points:  The United States has a national interest in continuing properly monitored and targeted nonmilitary foreign assistance. the rule of law.S. For example. and reflects the generous character of our people. goods and services. It also has helped to transition nations ruled by dictators to governments that uphold the human rights. Non-military foreign assistance is essential in areas where the United States is at war. in fact. These grants have been used for water supply and sanitation projects. allies and partners. the Millennium Challenge Corporation is an independent U. properly targeted and monitored U. 2. and other activities. created new markets for U.

―USAID Is Foreign Policy‘s Best Dollar Value.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. The Daily Caller.‖ Former Senator Norm Coleman and Former Governor Mike Huckabee.S. Henrietta Holsman Fore. November 28. Bush‘s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and the Millennium Challenge Corporation paved the way for the Obama administration‘s approach. POLITICO. February 24. ―Soft Power Part of Reagan Legacy.‖ Open Letter by Foreign Policy Initiative. January 21.‖ J.‖ Max Boot.5.‖ Paul Miller. 2011. POLITICO. In the last Congress. 2011.‖ Former U. 2011. 2011. ―Seven Foreign Policy and Human Rights Orgs: Proposed Cuts to State And Foreign Ops Budget Threat to National Security. ―The Realist Case for Nation-Building. 2011. et al. President George W. ―Invest in U. November 18.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. The Daily Caller. Don‘t End It. ―More Effective Foreign Assistance Can Pay Real Dividends. An historical example of the success of this method is South Korea. January 27. 6. and Andrew Natsios.        40 . 2011. 2011. February 23. February 17. Foreign Policy Online.‖ Elliott Abrams. November 3. 2011. ―Why Congress Shouldn‘t Slash Foreign Aid. FPI Resources:  ―FPI Analysis: in Defense of America‘s International Affairs Budget. Foreign assistance has historically enjoyed bipartisan support. Peter McPherson.‖ Former Senator Tom Daschle and Former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge. POLITICO.S.S. and Rob Mosbacher. Foreign Policy Online. April 6. ―USAID: Mend It. Members from both parties and both houses supported legislation to reform foreign assistance. Brian Atwood. Fly. Jim Kolbe. M. Commentary‘s Contentions Blog. aid. ―What Is Foreign Aid For?‖ Paul Miller. Whereas the country once had a GDP and life expectancy on par with countries in sub-Saharan Africa and heavily relied on U. 2011.. Congressmen Jim Kolbe and Connie Morella. July 29. and is a donor of foreign assistance. National Review. 2011.   Suggested Reading:   ―Conservative Foreign Aid. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government. it now has one of the largest economies in the world. January 28. September 23. 2010. 2012.‖ Mark Green. Global Leadership. ―Congress and the Budget Quandary.

the United States should rally the world to apply maximum pressure against the North Korean regime. The new North Korean leader. it was revealed that North Korea has pursued a secret nuclear program during the eight years of the Agreed Framework. U. provided fuel oil. and again in 2009. 41 . In 2002. and that international food aid often does not reach those who it is meant to help. and improve broadcasts into the country to inspire the population against the regime. The North Korean people do not enjoy any political rights.S. Kim Jong-Il had succeeded North Korea‘s first leader. and torture are widespread. and threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).Q. North Korea was a key participant in the A. and extrajudicial killings. and permitted the construction of two light-water plants in return for a freeze on North Korea‘s plutonium production program. in which the U. Khan proliferation network. He assumed power following the death of the country‘s former leader. his father Kim IlSung. the United States should lead an international effort to undermine the stability of the regime by freezing Pyongyang‘s financial assets abroad. and sank a South Korean ship. it is believed that a circle of older relatives and advisers assist him in the day-to-day affairs of the state. economic aid. his father Kim Jong-il in December 2011. stopping North Korea‘s sale of conventional arms. and Yemen. Instead of further bilateral deals.S.000 people are imprisoned in a system of gulags for political crimes. the North has completed physical preparations for a third nuclear test. but has not yet made the political decision to do so. Key Points:  The North Korean regime shows no regard whatsoever for human rights. Kim Jong-Un. North Korea is the leading proliferator of nuclear and missile technology to the world. and a key proliferator of missile and nuclear technology to its fellow rogue regimes across the world. when Pyongyang blocked international inspectors from investigating its nuclear activities. a nuclear state. shelled South Korean territory. ballistic missile and nuclear technology. Over 200. Syria. and has sold missiles to Libya.S. North Korea provocatively tested a nuclear explosive device in 2006. Pyongyang has played a key role in the development of Iran‘s nuclear and missile programs. Pyongyang has pursued a strategy of brazenly provoking the United States and its allies in order to force de-escalatory negotiations and extract economic and food aid from the international community. among others. Unfortunately. Vietnam. increase efforts to help North Korean escapees. 2. The Clinton administration negotiated and signed the Agreed Framework in 1994. in 1994. is believed to be in his late-twenties. North Korea has rejected these inducements. North Korea‘s ―military-first‖ philosophy ensures that the country‘s military receives preferential treatment over the people. Currently. and repeatedly conducted long-range missile tests. often for arbitrary reasons.   Notable Facts: 1. While it is unclear if Kim Jong-Un has full control over the regime. The current crisis over North Korea‘s nuclear program began in 1993. Instead of continuing negotiations in the hope of denuclearization. Syria‘s secretly-built nuclear reactor near Dair al-Zour--destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in September 2007—was a mirror-image of a North Korean reactor at Yongbyon. disappearances.North Korea North Korea is the most brutally repressive regime in the world. For decades. promised aid in exchange for North Korean good behavior. policy towards North Korea for the past two decades has been rooted in quid pro quo agreements in which the U.

3. July 19. Fly. Fall 2010. 5. 4.‖ Carolyn Leddy.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. and nuclear weapons-related activities. his administration ultimately agreed to the short-lived ―Leap Day Deal‖ of 2012. nuclear tests. 2010. April 20. Although President Obama did not initially respond to North Korean provocations by calling for further negotiations. The Wall Street Journal Asia. North Korea is heavily dependent on China‘s aid for assistance. September 26. The Weekly Standard Blog. ―Tackling Pyongyang‘s Proliferation Trade. The Bush administration created the Six-Party Talks in 2003 in an effort to break from the Clinton administration‘s bilateral model for negotiations. December 20. November 24. While South Korea eventually emerged from the Korean War as a global economic powerhouse. ―Seeking Instability. The Diplomat. and Christian Whiton.     Additional Resources:  ―Power Struggles and Purges in Pyongyang. The Weekly Standard Blog.‖ Christian Whiton. FPI Resources:  ―Don‘t Return to Korea Status Quo. and get key regional powers— namely. and Japan—to join the United States in pressuring North Korea. Journal of International Security Affairs. However. 2011. The Six-Party Talks broke down when Russia and China undermined negotiations by taking North Korea‘s side during negotiations. 2012. in which the United States agreed to provide food aid in return for Pyongyang‘s cessation of long-range missile launches.‖ Bruce Klinger. Carolyn Leddy. South Korea.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. ―Pressuring Pyongyang. December 23. 2011. The Commentator. National Review Online’s The Corner. Fly.   42 . the North‘s failed—but nonetheless provocative— launch of a satellite-bearing rocket in April 2012 scuttled that agreement. May 1.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Evan Moore. ―North Korea: The Goal Is Regime Change. 2010. ―It's Time for a Political War on Pyongyang.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. 2012.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Evan Moore. Russia. The Wall Street Journal Asia. China. 2009. ―It‘s Time for the Lights to Come on in North Korea. Fly.

and other states of concern. Moscow‘s continuing violations of human rights and subversion of the rule of law inside Russia should alarm everyone who supports democratic rights and freedoms.‖ Turning a blind eye to such undemocratic behavior further weakens democratic forces in Russia and harms American interests. curtailed press freedom and political expression. diplomatic response to such Russian provocations has been weak and irresolute. as they have in securing loose nuclear materials against the threat of terrorist seizure. Russia has also ignored its international obligation to establish and ensure a free and open political process inside its borders. The United States should respond swiftly to activities undertaken by the Kremlin to thwart the democratic process and violate basic human rights inside Russia. Russia has not only prevented more effective sanctions to curb Iran‘s controversial nuclear program. When Russia obstructs international consensus. When appropriate. Although it may have seemed promising to engage Russia and China in multilateral talks with Iran and North Korea. but also to the survival of the fading democratic process within Russia. Key Points:  The price for the Obama administration‘s ―reset‖ effort to gain Russian cooperation on nuclear nonproliferation and arms control should not be American timidity toward Russian actions that harm U.S.S. and allied interests elsewhere. military. the United States should work with democratic allies and like-minded partners to pressure Iran.S. Russia has threatened its neighbors—and even invaded Georgia—and used its regional energy distribution dominance to gain political leverage in foreign capitals dependent on Russian fuel. The U. The United States and our allies should maintain strong support for the independence and sovereignty of the democratic states on Russia‘s borders. especially in Europe. and cultural ties to the region. the Russian government has accelerated a systematic rollback of democratic reforms enacted in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union.Russia The Obama administration's effort to ―reset‖ relations with Russia should not overlook the challenges that the Kremlin's current policies pose not only to a more stable. In recent years. American policy should seek to strengthen economic. in practice Moscow and Beijing have used such negotiations to protect their client states from international pressure. North Korea. democratic world. the United States should pursue a relationship with Russia that accounts for the reality of the Kremlin‘s policies in a manner that is consistent with U. and used the power of the state to harass political opponents and media outlets. Together with our democratic allies.    43 . At the same time. The United States should work with Russia on issues where both share interests. diplomatic. strategic interests and moral values. The United States should speak out much more forcefully against these actions as then-Senator Obama did in condemning Russia‘s flawed 2008 election as a ―tragic step backwards. but also sold Iran advanced anti-aircraft weapons systems. the United States should not hesitate to pursue alternative multilateral approaches that exclude the Kremlin.

2011. Foreign Policy Initiative. the Russian Federation invaded the country of Georgia. ―Loosening Putin‘s Grip. and opposition demonstrators began a campaign of protests and activism that remain ongoing. The election was beset by fraud.-Russian ‗Reset‘. 2008. 4. ―FPI Bulletin: Reassessing U. Washington Post. These actions violate the cease-fire agreement that Presidents Medvedev and Saakashvili signed on August 12. Fly and Policy Director Robert Zarate. The New Republic. Today. roughly 25% of Russia‘s gross national product. Fly. 6. 2012. in full freedom. In a surprise development. Washington Post. the Indem think tank estimates market corruption at over $300 billion annually.Notable Facts: 1. June 6. Russia has agreed specifically to ―respect the right of individuals and groups to establish. December 7.S. ―FPI Analysis: Evaluating the U. June 22. continues to occupy them. ―A Bill that Cracks Down on Russian Corruption. June 18.-Russia Relations as President Putin Returns.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan. Russia had fallen to 154th.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Russian voters in the December 2011 parliamentary elections dealt Prime Minister Vladimir Putin‘s political machine a stunning blow.S. On March 4. The Weekly Standard. their own political parties or other political organizations and provide such political parties and organizations with the necessary legal guarantees to enable them to compete with each other on a basis of equal treatment before the law and by the authorities. which will end in 2018. ―FPI Analysis: Moving Beyond the U. 2012. 3. 2012. 44         . 2011.” FPI Executive Director Jamie M.-Russian ‗Reset.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative.‘‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. ―Why is Obama Giving Up His Human Rights Leverage Against Russia? ” FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork. ―Beware ‗Flexibility‘. March 30.‖ FPI Policy Director Robert Zarate and Policy Analyst Evan Moore. March 31.‖ In 2000. and after recognizing the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. 2012. 2. 5. President. Fly and Policy Director Robert Zarate. which has dominated the country‘s politics for over a decade. 2010. harassment of election monitors. May 9. October 10. 2012. Through its membership in the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE). in 2010.S. Foreign Policy Initiative.‖ FPI Director Robert Kagan and David Kramer. National Review Online. Transparency International ranked Russia 82nd in the global ratings. Putin‘s United Russia party. In August 2008. retaining only a slim majority of 238 seats in the 450-member lower house. 2011. and other irregularities aimed at boosting United Russia‘s performance at the polls. 2012. Vladimir Putin was elected to his third term as Russian President. ―Time to Abandon ‗Reset‘?‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. June 17. lost 77 seats in the Russian State Duma. Drop the Russian Reset. FPI Resources:  ―FPI Bulletin: Mr. The outcome was all the more astonishing given widespread allegations of ballot-box stuffing.

National Review. July 30. ―The Dying Bear: Russia‘s Demographic Disaster. April 12. Rampant Corruption.‖ Mark Schneider. ―Putin's Got America Right Where He Wants It.Suggested Reading:  ―Why Vladimir Putin Is Immune to the American Reset. ―Russia‘s Strongman is Losing his Grip. February 28.‖ Leon Aron. 2012. July 16. National Review Online.             45 . ―Russia 2012: Increased Repression. March 8. ―President Putin's First 60 Days.‖ Nicholas Eberstadt. Washington Post. 2012. 2012.‖ Masha Lipman. Foreign Affairs. June 28. ―The Right Way to Sanction Russia.‖ David Satter.‖ Michael Weiss. Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The Wall Street Journal Europe. ―Russia‘s Choice. Washington Post. Foreign Policy. 2012. Foreign Policy. ―The Promise of Russia‘s Middle Class‖ Condoleezza Rice. March 15. July 21. November 1. ―A Kremlin Made of Sand‖ Leon Aron. Assisting Rogue Regimes. 2012.‖ Vladimir Kara-Murza. May 4. ―A Tormenting in Moscow. The Heritage Foundation. 2012. 2012. ―After New START. 2011. 2012. ―The Kremlin‘s Blacklist. March 21. 2012.‖ David Kramer.‖ Rachel Denber.‖ Gary Kasparov. Washington Post. Foreign Policy. 2011. 2012.‖ Garry Kasparov and Boris Nemtsov. The Wall Street Journal. July 26. May 7. 2012.

000 jobs. free trade also enhances America‘s national security interests by strengthening ties with democratic allies and cultivating future partners. these companies often use this investment capital to fund research and development activities. companies. delivering another blow to U. Yet the U. it would be a mistake to impose U. the United States tops both Germany and China by about $200 billion as the world‘s top exporter. The United States should also expand export opportunities to Brazil and India. which would likely lead to a counterproductive trade war with China that hurt U. The U. companies and benefits for American consumers.S. economic growth and creating more jobs for Americans. interests. 46 . international markets represent 74% of the world‘s purchasing power. businesses and consumers that could result in fewer jobs. The agreements were initially signed by the Bush administration in 2006 and 2007.Trade Free trade is critical to promoting America‘s economic prosperity. companies and raise the cost of goods for American consumers. China‘s businesses should operate in a transparent fashion. and South Korea on October 23. and Beijing should respect and enforce vigorously the intellectual property rights of Americans firms.S. China‘s growing economy and population offer both tremendous opportunity for U.S. When it comes to the sales of manufactured goods. According to the U. The White House estimates the South Korea agreement alone will increase U. particularly given that 95% of the world‘s consumers live outside U. reduced wages. By opening foreign markets for U.S. goods exports in 2010. Key Points:  American leadership on trade is critical to increasing U. Chamber of Commerce.S. President Obama signed into law the congressionally-approved U. 2. global protectionist sentiment could rise. After a long delay. and 95% of its consumers. and higher prices. goods and services.S.S. borders.S. 2011. economy benefits from the foreign direct investment (FDI) that flows into U. Brazil is America‘s second largest Latin American trading partner. leadership on trade. free trade agreements with Panama.     Notable Facts: 1.S. and new or expanded production facilities. equipment purchases. Colombia. Developing countries purchased 53% of U.S.S.S.-Chinese economic interdependence should not hinder efforts to ensure that American businesses are treated fairly. its currency should be allowed to float to reflect its market value. In addition.S. GDP by at least $11 billion and support 70. in working with China to end such practices. tariffs on Chinese imports. The Obama administration has refused to support new tariffs.-Brazilian trade relationship still has great potential to grow.S. U. Protectionist policies ultimately hurt U. 87% of its economic growth. and natural resources. In turn. services. the United States and India. Without U. farm products.S. With one of the fastest growing economies in the world and the largest economy in South America. led by a boom in sales to East Asia and the Americas.S. However.S. which are increasingly bound together by shared strategic and economic interests. stand to reap great benefits from deeper trade relations.

More than 50 million Americans work for companies that engage in international trade. September 7. March 2. according to the U.‖ Ray Walser and Bruce Klingner.S. Department of Commerce‘s Economics and Statistics Administration reported in 2011 that foreign direct investment (FD) in the United States over the last decade has supported more than 5 million U.S. The Wall Street Journal. ―Enhance U. 2011. Fly and Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. March 27. ―FPI Bulletin: Boost U. June 21. Policy Towards China. July 8. October 6. et al. February 15.‖ Editorial. Foreign Policy Initiative. Security: Pass Free Trade Agreements with Colombia.. 2010. Economy with Free Trade—Not Unilateral Tariffs.      47 . ―How About a Free-Trade Deal With Europe?‖ Paula Dobriansky and Paul Saunders. August 8. Panama.S. and Panama. farmland is planted to feed hungry consumers overseas. Foreign Policy Initiative. Colombia. Trade Representatives Mickey Kantor and Charlene Barshefsky. 4. ―FPI Analysis: Assessing U. 2011. 2012. The Heritage Foundation. FPI Resources:  ―Obama Drops the Ball on India.S. and South Korea.S. The Heritage Foundation. One in three manufacturing jobs depends on exports. ―The U. 2012. The Wall Street Journal. Economy with Free Trade—Not Unilateral Tariffs.‖ Ray Walser.S. 2012. October 6.S.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. July 23. Chin.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. 2011. 2010. December 20.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. jobs.3. ―Colombia and Obama‘s Latin America Policy: Time to Close Ranks and Support a Friend. and one in three acres of U. Has No Good Reasons to Stall on Latin America Free-Trade Deals.     Suggested Reading:  ―America Needs a Business Pivot Toward Asia.S. 2012. Department of Treasury. The U. ―Letter to President Obama. Washington Post.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M.‖ Curtis S. Foreign Policy Initiative. ―FPI Bulletin: Boost U.S. 2011.‖ FPI Policy Analyst Patrick Christy.‖ Former U. ―FPI Bulletin: High Time for Free Trade with South Korea.S. Fly and Policy Analyst Patrick Christy. 2011. The Diplomat.

and the likelihood that we will be drawn back into these countries.S.S. homeland have been foiled. several high-profile terrorist attacks against the homeland—including the 2009 Christmas Day attack. The bipartisan 9/11 Commission Report noted the importance of socio-political changes in the region to countering Islamic extremism: ―Tolerance. and defeat terrorists seeking to attack America‘s homeland and strategic interests. and covert and military operations. respect for human rights. The re-emergence of a ―failed state‖ in Afghanistan will only increase the terrorist risk to the U. and technical and legal expertise that has helped other nations transition to democracy—that help to promote the rule of law. effective public diplomacy. Since 9/11. according to The Heritage Foundation. most recently. the Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador on American soil—have been foiled because of U. and further isolate such violent ideologies as a political force in Muslim populations. By doing so. disrupt. The United States must support such developments. prosperous societies.S. 48 . In addition.‖ The United States thus should implement polices specifically designed to advance America‘s long-term interests in the Arab Spring. including the Patriot Act and other homeland security measures. political and economic openness. Even though the pace and success of the reformers in each nation will be uneven. In particular. It is essential that America work with allies and partners to maintain sustained. intelligence gathering and counterterrorism efforts. and seize the opportunities offered by the political reform movements that are sweeping the Middle East. economic development. the United States can dramatically weaken the message and appeal of Islamic extremism. the United States must also focus on the vast majority of Muslims who seek a better future for themselves and their families. The threat of another major attack remains. and global operations against its enemies by using a broad array of tools. America should pursue efforts—including economic aid. such support should be reviewed and/or withdrawn in the event the recipient government engages in anti-democratic activity. the extension of greater opportunities to women—these cures must come from within Muslim societies themselves. Success in Afghanistan is critical to America‘s long-term security interests. At the same time. 40 other attempted terrorist attacks against the U. Key Points:  The United States must stay on the offense against terrorist organizations using all instruments of national power. National Security Agency (NSA) terrorist surveillance programs. homeland and vital interests across the globe.    Notable Facts: 1. but also to hold accountable foreign governments that cultivate or provide sanctuary to violent extremists. The United States has a vital interest in ensuring that Afghan territory never again becomes a safe haven for terrorists threatening the U. the rule of law. comprehensive. support Iraq. diplomatic and economic initiatives. and accountable governance. Washington and its allies must also remain resolved to succeed in Afghanistan.S. homeland. The United States remains at risk for terrorist attacks. America and our allies should work with reformers who seek to build free.War on Terror/Islamic Extremism The United States must continue not only to isolate. In countering the forces of extremism. the October 2010 parcel plot and.

AEI‘s Critical Threats Project. al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in a daring raid by U. 2011. 2011. June 27.‖ Foreign Policy Initiative. ―FPI Fact Sheet: Success in Afghanistan Is Critical to Prevailing in The War On Terror. 2011. Fly. Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots. 2012. Abu Yaha al-Libi.           49 . reportedly took control of the alQaeda network. ―Targeted Killings Can't Be Total Strategy to Defeat al Qaeda. Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government. Bin Laden‘s lieutenant. Security. 3. May 2. ―The Drone Blowback Fallacy. Although al-Qaeda‘s central leadership continues to reside in Pakistan. 2012. FPI Resources:  ―A War that‘s Bigger than Afghanistan. June 23. 2012. The Weekly Standard. Washington Post. 2012. 2012. American Enterprise Institute.‖ FPI Director William Kristol. American Enterprise Institute. Zawahiri‘s new second-in-command. Fly. ―Terror Is Their Family Business.‖ Sasha Gordon. Ayman al-Zawahiri. February 17. September 20. September 30. ―We Can‘t Just Play Whack-A-Mole in The War on Terror‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. Foreign Policy’s AfPak Channel. ―The Will and Moral Courage.‖ Abe Greenwald. CNN. On May 2. ―Can we Declare the War on al Qaeda Over?‖ Mary Habeck. 2011. ―The War Goes On. July 13. ―What We Got Right in The War On Terror.‖ Peter Bergen and Jennifer Rowland. Fly and Policy Analyst Evan Moore.‖ Daniel Byman. National Review Online’s The Corner. National Review Online. July 24.S. the organization‘s regional affiliates are increasing their profile within the network by directing terrorist acts against Western targets.‖ Katherine Zimmerman.     Suggested Reading:  ―Splitting al-Qa'ida and its Affiliates.‖ Jeffrey Dressler. September 9. Commentary. ―Recipe for Failure: American Strategy Toward Yemen and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. On June 4. Navy SEALS.‖ Frederick Kagan. 2012. ―Abyani Tribes and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen. July 7.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M.‖ Katherine Zimmerman. ―Ten Years After 9/11: al-Qaeda's Reemergence in Yemen. September 30. 2012. National Review Online’s The Corner.‖ Christopher Swift. September 2011. The Heritage Foundation.2. American Enterprise Institute. 2012. 2012. 2011.‖ FPI Executive Director Jamie M. 2012. July 1.‖ Congressman Patrick Meehan. May 2. July 30. was killed in Pakistan by a CIA drone strike. 2011. July 25. ―Boko Haram: An Overlooked Threat to U. ―Civilian Casualties Plummet in Drone Strikes.

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