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Seasonal Cycle, Interannual and Decadal Variability of Peruvian Anchovy Population Dynamics: A Model Study Ph.

D Thesis Proposal Defense

Yi Xu April 2006

Acknowledgements
Advisor: Dr. Fei Chai Committee:
Huijie Xue, James McCleave, Andrew Thomas (UMaine) Kenneth Rose (Louisiana State University) Francisco Chavez (MBARI)

Ocean Modeling Group: Others:

Guimei Liu, Lei Shi, Steve Cousins, Danya Xu, Yi Du
 Nana Xu (University of Pennsylvania)  Lei Han (Ocean University of China)  Chunbao Miao (NOAA, Washington DC)  Xian Wang (University of Alaska)

Funded by NASA & NSF

Outline
Introduction Questions Physical, Biogeochemical, and Fish Models ROMS-CoSINE Model Output Analysis Development of IBM for Peruvian Anchovy
Case Study 1: Mean Condition Case Study 2: Seasonal Cycle Case Study 3: Interannual Variability Sensitivity Studies

Current and Future Work Summary

533 4.379 2.483 1.527 1.863 4.167 1.33 2.479 1.329 1.275 0 2  The largest single species in the world’s fisheries  About 18~20% of the world’s fish catch Alaska Pollock Chilian Jack Mackerel Atlantic Herring Chub Mackerel Capelin South American Pilchard Skipjack Tuna Atlantic Cod Largehead Hairtail The World’s Fishery Production (unit in million metric tons) Top 10 species (FAO Database 1996) 4 6 8 10 .Introduction why Peruvian anchovy? Peruvian Anchovy 8.

Introduction coast of Peru  0S-20S 70W-85W  Northwestward wind  Strong Upwelling  Cool surface temperature  Highly productive region Wind .

SST anomaly vs Peruvian Anchovy Catch -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Peruvian Anchovy Catch (x 106 metric tons) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 6 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 3mrm Monthly SST Anomaly (deg C) for Nino 1+2 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 -3 .

Peruvian Anchovy and Sardine Chavez et al. Science. 2003 Anchovy-regime Sardine-regime .PDO..

Questions  What are the key environmental factors regulate Peruvian anchovy growth dynamics? How do these factors vary on seasonal. and decadal time scale? How do physical and biological conditions affect Peruvian anchovy recruitment and natural mortality? What is the role of ocean current in controlling Peruvian anchovy larvae distribution and their growth dynamics? How do El Nino events affect larvae and adult distribution? What is the impact of Peruvian anchovy on plankton biomass and productivity? How can we use the model to evaluate and compare natural and fishing mortality of Peruvian anchovy?     . interannual.

Physical. Nitrogen Silicate Ecosystem (CoSINE) The Fish Model: Individual Based Model (IBM) . and Fish Models The Circulation Model: Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) The Biogeochemical Model: Carbon. Biogeochemical.

ROMS Pacific Ocean  NCEP Forcing  Fine Resolution 50km or 12.5km  .

Nitrogen Ecosystem Model Chai et al. 2002. Dugdale et al.CoSINE MicroZooplankton [Z1] Grazing Predation Small Phytoplankton [P1] NH4 Uptake Biological Uptake NO3 Uptake Air-Sea Exchange Total CO2 [TCO2] Fecal Pellet Mesozooplankton [Z2] Lost Fecal Pellet Excretion Iron N-Uptake Ammonium [NH4] Grazing Nitrate [NO3] Advection & Mixing Iron Iron Diatoms [P2] Sinking Detritus-N [DN] Sinking Detritus-Si [DSi] Sinking Dissolution Si-Uptake Silicate [Si(OH)4] Physical Model Carbon. 2002 . Silicate.

5km 166×120×33 Monthly Monthly Climatology Available IV 12.ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output extracted data for Coast of Peru ROMSCoSINE Resolution Grids Forcing Output Time Interval Time Series Status I 50km 34×32×33 Daily Monthly 1990-2004 Available II 50km 34×32×33 Daily Monthly 1950-2004 N/A III 12.5km 166×120×33 Daily 3 days 1950-2004 N/A .

ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output 12.5km resolution Temperature (Surface and Vertical Profile) .

ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output Model comparison study----Annual Mean Condition study----Annual ROMS-CoSINE In-situ SeaWiFS Surface Chlorophyll .

Seasonal Cycle study---- .ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output Model comparison study---.

Focus: Individual Based Model (IBM)  Mass and energy balance  Connect fish with environmental factors Track fish growth through entire stages Track fish population Track fish movement .

Random Effects  Movement . Swimming Behavior.Focus: IBM  Growth   For egg and yolk-sac larva: Temperature dependent From first feeder to adult: Bioenergetic equation Calz dW =[C -(R + S +F + E)]  W dt Calf  Mortality C-consumption R-respiration S-specific dynamic action F-egestion E-excretion Natural & Fishing Currents.

food selection coefficients. etc.Anchovy IBM: Input and Output  Input     Temperature 4 types of plankton groups Currents Biological Parameters of anchovy (growth.) list  Output   IBM  Growth: length and weight at age Population dynamics: numbers at age Movement: trajectories of anchovy schools list .

Preliminary Results  One fish growth study Case study 1: Steady State Condition Case study 2: Seasonal Cycle Case study 3: Interannual Variability  Sensitivity Study .

1987) Vitrual Population Analysis (Pauly et al...Case Study 1---Steady State 1---Steady Modeled Anchovy Growth Length@age Lab observation (Palomares et al. 1987) .

Case Study 2---Seasonal Cycle 2---Seasonal Growth Length@age Weight@age .

Case Study 2---Seasonal Cycle 2---Seasonal Anchovy Recruitment to 5cm (recruit to fishery) diatom mesozooplankton Recruitment .

Case Study 3 ---Interannual ---Interannual Variability Temperature mesozooplankton diatom Recruitment Moderate El Nino Strong El Nino .

Sensitivity Studies Temperature Effects .

Sensitivity Studies Food Selection diatom mesozooplankton microzooplankton .

Current Work---Population Work---Population Mortality rate .

1987) .Current Work---Population Work---Population  Egg Distribution (Pauly.

Future Work  3D Simulation  4 Different regions  Movement  Direct link fish model with ROMS-CoSINE model Natural vs Fishing Mortality Longer time series for PDO study   .

the steady state condition. The preliminary results show a clear response of anchovy growth dynamics corresponding with physical and biological processes on seasonal and interannual time scale.  Link fish model directly with biogeochemical model.  An IBM for Peruvian anchovy has been developed. and include feedback processes.  Three different environmental conditions are examined.  Future Work:  Study the population dynamics of Peruvian anchovy and movement behavior in a 3D domain.  Separate the fishing term from the natural mortality. based on bioenergetic equations to study its growth through the entire life span. . seasonal cycle and interannual variation.Summary  ROMS-CoSINE ecosystem model results show promising performance on Peruvian upwelling system.

--The End---The End-Questions? .