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FoodandWaterSecurityin ChangingTimes

CaseyBrown UniversityofMassachusetts University of Massachusetts

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MajorForcings Major Forcings


Populationgrowth Population growth Changeindietarycomposition Urbanpopulationgrowth b l i h Consumption,esp.foodandenergy Connectedness(ICT,globaltrade, g p ) transnationalngos andcorporations) Climatevariabilityandchange
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Conflicts
Lowvalueandhighvaluewaterusers ow value and high value water users
Allocationofwaterwhenmarginalvalue>0 Urban/municipalvs rural/agricultural Intranationalandinternationalsharedresources

WaterManagementpracticeandclimatechange
Adaptationsinwatermanagementthatrespondto evolvinganduncertainclimateconditions

Economically quantifiable and noneconomic Economicallyquantifiableandnoneconomic watervalues


Environmental costs equity costs Environmentalcosts,equitycosts
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Consequences
Asiawillnotrunoutofwater
Inthelongrun

Currenttrendswillleadtoincreasingconflicts Waterwillinevitablyflowtohighervalueuses($$$) Themanagementofthoseconflictswilldeterminethe occurrenceandconsequencesofcrises occurrence and consequences of crises


Therewillbecrises

Progress in water management in policy is needed to Progressinwatermanagementinpolicyisneededto reducetheeconomic,environmentalandsocialcosts ofthattransition


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DoesIndiaHaveEnoughWater?
Human Water Use as % of Total Accessible Renewable Supplies
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Water Use Consumption

Does not account for pollution

Development
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Utilization

Allocation

ClimateConcern:Variability
StatusQuoGrowth
GDPperCapita($) GDP per Capita ($)
600 600 500 500 GDPpercap AdjustGDPpercap 300 GDPpercap Linear(GDPpercap) 200 200 300 Linear(GDPpercap) Linear(AdjustGDPper cap)

Growthwith10%reductionin droughteffect
GDPperCapita($) GDP per Capita ($)

400

400

100

100

0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

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(Brownetal.,2012)

ManagingConflicts Managing Conflicts


Policy interventions can facilitate orderly Policyinterventionscanfacilitate orderly transitions (At least) three requirements (Atleast)threerequirements
Economicincentive P li i l i Politicalincentive i Technologicalfeasibility

Plannersmustfocusonprovidingmechanisms fortemporaryandpermanentwatertransfers
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DugWell

Groundwaterelevationx Groundwater elevation x

TubeWell

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DugWell

Groundwaterelevationx

TubeWell

Drought
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DugWell

TargetGroundwaterelevationX

PriceIncentive Price Incentive

TubeWell

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(Brownetal.,2006)

WellPumping&DrawdownOver50YearPlanningPeriod p g g

Agent Based
FallingWater Table

Actual Pumping

Pumping Upper Bound

Avg. Agent Profit: $5.8 mil


Rising Rising WaterTable

Streamflow Violation Percentage: 93.5% 93 5% (Mulliganetal.,2012)

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LandholdingSizesandFragmentation
2500 2000 Number Cumm.Area 45000 40000 35000 30000

[#] ]

1500 1000 500 0

Punjab P j b

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

GiniCoefficient Gini Coefficient G=0.29

[ha]

90000 80000 70000 60000 Number Cumm.Area

120000 100000 80000

[#]

50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

Bihar

60000 40000 20000 0

GiniCoefficient Gini Coefficient G=0.74

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[ha]

(Fishmanet al.,2012)

ManilaWaterSupplyCosts DryYearOptions+ReservoirIndexInsurance D Y O i R i I d I
Annual Costs for Farmer Buy-outs
1200 Costs in Million Pesos M 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Contracts Insured

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(BrownandCarriquiry,2006)

IndusRiverBasinAdaptation NewDam? p
EconomicProduction
5000000 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 m millionRS 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 y26 y31 y36 y41 y46 y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 CCScenarios Baseline

Year
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IndusRiverBasinAdaptation NewDam? p
EconomicProduction
5000000 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 m millionRS 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 y26 y31 y36 y41 y46 y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 CCScenarios Baseline NEWDAM

Year
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IndusRiverBasinAdaptation EconomicAllocation? EconomicProduction


5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 million nRS 1000000 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 y26 y31 y36 y41 y46 years y1 y6 y11 y16 y21 y26 y31 y36 y41 y46

CCScenarios

Baseline

WithInterProvincialAgreement
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WithOptimalAllocation

NewTools,NewHarvardW.P.? New Tools, New Harvard W.P.?


HarvardWaterProgram g
WelfareEconomics Rationalconsumers/Neo Classical Rational consumers/NeoClassical Economics Infrastructuresystemdesign OptimalSolutions Topdownplanning Tools SyntheticStreamflow Optimization/Simulation BenefitCostAnalysis B fit C t A l i Reliability RiskManagement/Flexibility Risk Management/Flexibility
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NextGeneration
Nonstationarity Politicalfeasiblesolutions Political feasible solutions Boundedrationality Sustainability Tools Seasonalclimateforecasts(uncertain) EnvironmentalMonitoring(RS) ConsensusBuilding Agentbasedmodeling EconomicMechanismsandderivatives

Conclusion
Major challenge managing the transition to Majorchallengemanagingthetransitionto highervaluewateruse Acute challenges due to climate variability Acutechallengesduetoclimatevariability Conflictsareunavoidable;crisesarenot Economicincentivesareclear;innovative mechanismsneededthatarepoliticallyand technologicallyfeasible

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