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MAED model evaluates future energy demand based on medium- to long-term scenarios of: socio-economic, technological and demographic

hic developments. The starting point for using the MAED model is construction of base year energy. This helps to calibrate the model to the specific situation of the country. The next step is developing future scenarios, specific to a countrys situation and objectives. The scenarios can be sub-divided into two sub-scenarios: social and economic evolution of the country technological factors, which should be taken into account in the calculation of energy demand, for example the efficiency of each alternative energy form and its penetration into its potential markets. The key to plausible (truthful) and useful scenarios is internal consistency of assumptions, especially for social, economic and technological evolution. A good understanding of the dynamic interplay among various driving forces or determining factors is necessary. The model output is the future energy demand, is just a reflection of these scenario assumptions. The evaluation of output and the modification of initial assumptions is the basic process by which reasonable results are derived. The model focuses exclusively on energy demand, and even more specifically on demand for specified energy services.

When various energy forms, i.e. electricity, fossil fuels, etc., are competing for a given end-use category of energy demand, this demand is calculated first in terms of useful energy and then converted into final energy, taking into account market penetration and the efficiency of each alternative energy source, both specified as scenario parameters. Non-substitutable energy uses such as motor fuels for cars, electricity for specific uses (electrolysis, lighting etc.) are calculated directly in terms of final energy. Demand for fossil fuels is therefore not broken down in terms of coal, gas or oil and aspects that are outside the scope of the MAED analysis. The substitution of fossil fuels by alternative new energy forms (i.e., solar, district heat etc.) is nevertheless estimated, due to the importance of the structural changes in energy demand that these energy forms may introduce in the future. MAED_D does not calculate the evolution of energy demand directly from the evolution of energy prices. For example, the demand for gasoline is not calculated from a hypothetical price; this price is simply taken into account implicitly while writing the scenarios of development and it serves as a reference for modulating the future evolution of the parameters involved, such as the car ownership ratio, average distance traveled by car each year etc.

In this case, MAED_D simply calculates the demand for motor fuels (gasoline, diesel etc.) as a function of the socio-economic parameters specified by the scenario of development: number of automobiles, average distance driven by car etc. In other words, the prices of motor fuels are not explicitly taken into account; they simply affect the level at which the scenario developers situate the socio-economic parameters. MAED_D calculates the total energy demand for each end-use category, aggregating the economic sectors into four main "energy consumer" sectors: Industry (including Agriculture, Construction, Mining and Manufacturing), Service Transportation and Household. In the model, the demand for fossil fuels is not discerned in terms of coal, gas or oil, because this largely depends on the possibilities of supply and relative prices of these fuels, The substitution of fossil fuels by alternative "new" energy forms (i.e. solar, district heat etc.) is nevertheless estimated, due to the importance of the structural changes in energy demand that these energy forms may produce in the future. Six economic sectors are considered in MAED_D: Agriculture, Construction, Mining, Manufacturing, Service (including transport) and Energy further subdivided into up to ten subsectors can be made to allow grouping of the economic branches with similar energy intensities. Energy sector is used only to describe the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) formation. Its energy inputs, for conversions to other final energy forms, are not accounted for by the MAED model, which deals only with the final and useful energy demand projection. Special attention is given to the calculation of electricity demand, which is performed not only annually as for all other energy forms, but also on an hourly basis. These calculations in turn, can serve as input data for further analysis of the generating system using the WASP model. which will then permit WASP to select suitable generation technologies that match the variation in demand within a year or season.

MAED PROCESS Construction of Base Year (to calibrate the model to countries situation)

Develop Future Scenarios Specific To Country Covering: 1. Socio economic system evolution 2. Technological factors ( efficiency and market penetrations) evolutions

Main Inputs and Outputs of MAED INPUT


Energy sector data (energy balance) Scenario assumptions o Socio-economic o Technological Substitutable energy uses Process efficiencies Hourly load characteristics

OUTPUT
Final energy demand Electricity demand Hourly electric load Load duration curves

MAED

MAED D (Module 1)(for energy demand calculations) The Module 1 of MAED model (MAED_D) is a simulation model designed for evaluating the energy demand of a country or world region in the medium and long term and is based on scenario approach. It processes information describing the social, economic and technological scenario of development and calculates the total energy demand for the desired years. The breakdown of this demand by energy form and by economic sector considered is also provided. The MAED_EL (Module 2) (Hourly Electric Power Demand) It uses the total annual demand of electricity for each sector (calculated in MAED_D) to determine the total electric power demand for each hour of the year or, in other words, the hourly electric load, which is imposed on the power system under consideration. Scenario: Is a consistent description of a possible long-term development pattern of a country, characterized mainly in terms of long-term direction of governmental socioeconomic policy. Assumptions are therefore made about the possible evolution of the : Social

Economic and Technological development patterns of a country that can be anticipated over the long term from currents and government objectives and plans. The consistency of the scenario is a very important consideration of the methodology in order to guarantee attainment of sound results. Such consistency is to be exercised by the planner while formulating possible scenarios of development. Energy demand in the model