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IndiaEquityResearch

Financials

November09,2011

BUY

SKSMicrofinance

TargetPrice(INR)243

Bulkofthepainover,thoughrevivalsometimeaway

Rating SKSM reported a net loss of INR3.8bn, much larger than estimates,
drivenbyhigherprovisionsinthenonAndhraPradeshloanbookthan
LastPrice(INR)
192.8
thoserequiredasperregulatoryguidelines.However,withthebulkof
Bloombergcode
SKSMIN
creditcostsprovidedforin1HFY12,incrementalprovisionsarelikelyto
Reuterscode
SKSM.BO
belower.Wereviseourforecaststofactorintheacceleratedwriteoff
Avg.Vol.(3m)
413,195
Avg.Val.(3m)(INRmn)
108
in the Andhra Pradesh book. Disbursements are likely to see some
52wkH/L(INR)
1,019/188
improvement in 2HFY12 as demand for priority sector increases. We
17,570
Sensex
lowerourSep12TPtoINR243,primarilyduetofrontendedprovisions
MCAP(INRbn/USDmn)
13.95/282
inFY12.WeupgradetheratingtoBuyduetothesharpderatingsince
Shareholding(%)
6/11
9/11
Jul11.However,areboundinvaluationsislikelytobesometimeaway,
36.9
36.8
Promoters
astimelinesonthepassageoftheMicrofinanceBillremainuncertain.
MFs,FIs,Banks

5.2

6.1

FIIs

20.6

19.0

Public
Others

3.8
33.6

4.0
34.1

StockChart(RelativetoSensex)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200

AcceleratedwriteoffsintheAndhraPradeshbookpulldownearnings
SKSM reported a net loss of INR3.5bn, much larger than estimates, driven by
higherprovisionsinthenonAndhraPradeshloanbookthanthoserequiredas
per regulatory guidelines. The lender wrote off INR3.5bn during the quarter
ended Sep11; thus, lowering the outstanding Andhra Pradesh loan book to
INR8bn. However, with the bulk of credit costs provided for in 1HFY12,
incrementalprovisionsin2HFY12arelikelytobelower.Ourearlierestimates
for provisions and writeoffs in the Andhra Pradesh book were based on
currentprovisioningguidelinesforNBFCs.Wereviseourforecaststofactorin
theacceleratedwriteoffintheAndhraPradeshbook.Wemaintainourcredit
costforecastsofINR9.6bnoverthetwoyearperiodendingMar14f.

WriteoffsinnonAndhraPradeshbookaconcern

0
Nov10

Mar11

Jul11

SKS Microfinance

Nov11

Sensex Rebased

StockPerfm.(%)

1m

3m

1yr

Absolute

10.0

48.1

80.7

Rel.toSensex

18.2

49.7

64.3

03/11

03/12f

03/13f

SKSMwroteoffINR0.4bntowardstheWestBengalbookandINR0.1bntowards
lossesarisingoutoftheGujaratbook.Whilemanagementmaintainsthelosses
arising out of Gujarat to be purely technical, higher losses arising out of the
nonAndhraPradeshbookremainaconcern.

Disbursementsshrink,topickupduringthequarterendedMar12

Sho/s(diluted)

82 82 82

SKSMsdisbursementsdeclinedfromINR9bnintheJun11quartertoINR8bnin
the Sep11 quarter. The loan book continued to decline balance sheet loans
recordedan18%qoqdeclinefromINR31bnatendJun11toINR26bnatend
Sep11.Disbursementsarelikelytoseesomeimprovementtowardstheendof
2HFY12,asdemandforprioritysectorincreases.Theproposedequityinfusion,
if executed, is likely to improve the outlook for nonAndhra Pradesh growth.
WefactorinaCAGRof50%inloansforSKSMoverFY12fFY14f.

A.EPS(INR)

13.7 (49.4) 20.8

UpgradetoBuy,thoughneartermreboundinvaluationsunlikely

YoY(%)

(46) (462) (142)

Equity/Assets(%)

35.5 37.6 27.7

P/E(x)

38.2 (10.6) 25.1

ThetimelinesforintroductionoftheMicrofinanceBillintheParliamentandfor
passageofthebillintoanActremainuncertain.Onceenacted,thiscoulddrive
higher recoveries. A rebound in valuations is likely as and when these events
unfold.WelowerourSep12TPtoINR243,primarilydrivenbyfrontendingof
provisions in FY12. We upgrade the rating to Buy, due to the sharp derating
duringthepastthreemonths.Riskfactorsremainhigherthanestimatedcredit
lossesandlowerdisbursements.

Financials(INRbn)
NII

8 5 10

YoY(%)

40 (43) 105

Operatingprofit

4.1 (0.1) 3.9

A.PAT

1 (4) 2

P/B(Adj)(x)

2.4 3.1 2.8

RoA(%)
RoE(%)

2.9 (9.7) 3.2


8.2 (25.7) 11.7

QuarterlyTrends

12/10

03/11

06/11

09/11

Op.income(INRbn)

4 2 2 1

PAT(INRbn)

(1) (2) (4)

Pleaserefertothedisclaimertowardstheendofthedocument.

JayneeShah,+9102266842868
jaynee.shah@avendus.com

India Equity Research

SKSMicrofinance

Exhibit1: ResultssummaryforthequarterendedSep11
(INRmn)

Sep10

Jun11

qoq(%)

Sep11

yoy(%)

Interestincome

3,420

1,636

24.8

1,230

64.0

910

629

16.2

527

42.1

2,510

1,006

30.2

703

72.0

Interestexpense
Netinterestincome

310

132

38.0

82

73.7

Operatingincome

Otherincome

2,820

1,138

31.1

784

72.2

Operatingexpense

1,410

1,131

4.7

1,078

23.6

Operatingprofit

1,410

4,755.4

294

120.8
1,978.5

Provisions&contingencies

170

1,837

92.4

3,533

Provisionfortax

430

357

94.9

18

95.7

Netprofit

810

2,187

75.8

3,845

574.7

NA

25

Keyratios(%)

Loangrowth

50

Source:Company,AvendusResearch

Exhibit2: Earningsrevisionsummary
(INRbn)

FY12f

FY13f

Old

New

Var(%)

Old

Netinterestincome

5,516

4,715

14.5

Operatingincome

6,486

5,926

8.6

109

96

Provisions

3,526

6,985

Netprofit

476

EPS(INR)

6
190

Operatingprofit

AdjustedBookvalue(INR)

FY14f

New

Var(%)

Old

New

Var(%)

10,707

9,670

9.7

15,626

15,332

1.9

11,752

11,035

6.1

17,756

17,008

4.2

11.7

4,642

4,221

9.1

10,092

9,595

4.9

98.1

2,575

956

62.9

3,567

1,718

51.8

4,038

748.6

1,198

1,700

41.9

3,205

4,273

33.3

49

748.6

15

21

41.9

39

52

33.3

158

16.8

157

167

6.2

190

194

2.3

Source:Company,AvendusResearch

AcceleratedwriteoffsinAndhraPradeshbookpulldownearnings
In the Sep11 quarter, SKSM reported a net loss of INR3.8bn, much larger than estimates, driven by
higher provisions in the nonAndhra Pradesh loan book than those required as per regulatory
guidelines.DuringthequarterendedJun11,asperRBInormsforNBFCs,thecompanyrecognizedthe
entireAndhraPradeshloanbook(INR11bnatendJun11)assubstandardassets,whichledtocredit
losses of INR1.1bn (at 10%). SKSM has writtenoff INR3.5bn during the quarter ended Sep11; thus,
bringingtheoutstandingAndhraPradeshloanbookdowntoINR8bn.However,withthebulkofcredit
costs accounted for in 1HFY12, incremental provisions in 2HFY12 are likely to be lower. The
unrecognizeddeferredtaxassetsonaccountofprovisionsofINR2.6bncanbeutilisedagainstprofitsin
future. We have not factored in any gain from the deferred tax assets in our estimates. Our earlier
estimatesforprovisionsandwriteoffsintheAndhraPradeshbookwerebasedoncurrentprovisioning
guidelinesforNBFCs.WereviseourforecaststofactorintheacceleratedcleaningupoftheAPbook,
whichdrivesacutinourearningsestimatesforFY12andincreaseinforecastsbetweenFY13FY14.Our
absoluteforecastsforcreditcostsoverFY12FY14remainunchangedatINR9.6bn.
Exhibit3: Revisedforecastsforcreditcosts
(INRmn)
ProvisionsinAndhraPradeshbook
ProvisionsinNonAndhraPradeshbook
Total

Mar12f

Mar13f

Mar14f

6,287

860

1,546

699

96

180

6,985

956

1,726

Source:Company,AvendusResearch

Financials

India Equity Research

SKSMicrofinance

Exhibit4: Earlierforecastsforcreditcosts
(INRmn)
ProvisionsinAndhraPradeshbook
ProvisionsinnonAndhraPradeshbook
Total

Mar12f

Mar13f

Mar14f

3,173

3,217

2,310

353

357

257

3,526

3,575

2,567

Source:Company,AvendusResearch

WriteoffsinnonAndhraPradeshbookaconcern
SKSM wroteoffINR0.4bn towards theWestBengalbookand INR0.1bntowardslossesarising out of
theGujaratbook.WhilemanagementmaintainsthelossesarisingoutofGujarattobepurelytechnical,
higherlossesarisingoutofthenonAndhraPradeshbookcontinuetoremainaconcern.
Exhibit5: TrendinnonAndhraPradeshprovisionsforSKSM(INRmn)
699

466

233

0
Dec10

Mar11

Jun11

Sep11

Source:Company,AvendusResearch

Disbursementsshrink;topickupduringthequarterendedMar12
SKSMsdisbursementsdeclinedfromINR9bnintheJun11quartertoINR8bnintheSep11quarter.The
loanbookcontinuedtodeclinebalancesheetloansrecordedan18%qoqdeclinefromINR31bnat
endJun11toINR26bnatendSep11.Disbursementsarelikelytoseesomeimprovementtowardsend
2HFY12,asdemandforprioritysectorincreases.WefactorindisbursementsofINR47bnforFY12.The
proposedequityinfusion,ifexecuted,islikelytoimprovetheoutlookfornonAndhraPradeshgrowth.
WefactorinaCAGRof50%inloansforSKSMduringthetwoyearperiodendingMar14.

Reboundinvaluationsunlikelyinthenearterm
ThetimelinesforintroductionoftheMicrofinanceBillintheParliamentandforpassageofthebillinto
an Act remain uncertain. Once enacted, this could drive higher recoveries. In the interim, though,
recoveriesarelikelytoremainlow(c10%currently),tilllendingresumesinAndhraPradesh.Arebound
invaluationsislikelyasandwhentheseeventsunfold.

UpgradetoBuywitharevisedSep12TPofINR243
OurblendedtargetisbasedontheDCFandP/Bmethods.OurDCFvaluestandsatINR384,wherewe
assume a cost of equity of 14% and semiexplicit and fade period growth of 27% and 2.5%,
respectively.WealsoincludetheproposedequitydilutionofINR6bnduringFY13ftoarriveatourDCF
value. However, our base forecasts do not factor in the proposed equity dilution. The stock has
declinedby62%sinceJul11duetoadelayinthepassageoftheMicrofinanceBillandthelackofany
favourable outcome in Andhra Pradesh. We lower our Sep12 target price to INR243, from INR498

Financials

India Equity Research

SKSMicrofinance

earlier,primarilydrivenbyfrontendedprovisionsintheAndhraPradeshbook.Weupgradeourrating
toBuy,drivenbythe68%deratingofthestockfromitsrecentpeakinJul11.
Exhibit6: AverageP/B

1month

3months

6months

12months

1.2

1.5

2.0

2.9

DCF(withdilution)

P/B

Weightedavg

Weights

30%

70%

Targetprice

384

183

P/Adj.B
Source:Company,AvendusResearch

Exhibit7: TargetpricebasedontheDCFandP/Bmethods

243

Source:Company,AvendusResearch

Exhibit8: OneyearfwdP/BandtargetP/B
1yearforwardP/ABV(x)

Average1yearforwardP/ABV(x)

8.3
7.0
5.7
4.4
3.1
1.8
0.5
Aug10

Jan11

Jun11

Nov11

Apr12

Sep12

Source:Company,AvendusResearch

Riskfactors
Regulatory and political: An Andhra Pradeshlike situation in any other state is likely to result in
highercreditcosts,therebyimpactingearnings.
Assetqualityrisks:AllofSKSMsloansareunsecuredwithnocredithistoryavailableforborrowers.
Hence, should the jointliability model collapse, credit losses could spiral, impacting earnings
significantly.
Unavailabilityofadequatefunds:RelianceondebtcontinuestoremainstrongforSKSM,withmost
ofthesefundscomingfrombanks,basedonprioritysectorlendingarrangements.Duringthecrisis
inAndhraPradesh,thissourceofborrowinghadvirtuallycloseddownwithbanksunwillingtolend,
fearingrisingdefaults.Unavailabilityofadequatecapitaltofundthegrowthintheloanportfolioisa
keyrisktoourestimates.
Scalabilityrisks:SKSMsbranchnetworkhasgrownrapidlyoverthepastthreeyears.Thenumber
ofclientsincreasedfrom0.2mninMar06to5.8mnatendMar10.Therapidexpansioncouldpose
operational and scalability risks, as SKSM penetrates newer geographies and increases its ticket
sizes.

Financials

India Equity Research

SKSMicrofinance

Financials&valuations
Incomestatement(INRbn)
F iscalyearending
Netinterest income
F eeincome
Tradingprofit
Ot herincome
Totalo perat ingincome
Totaloperat ingexpense
O peratingprofit
Prov isionforbaddebt
Ot herprovi sion
PBT(reported)
Totaltaxes
PAT(reported)
(+)Shareinassoc.earni ngs
Less:Minorityint er est
Pri orperiodit ems
Neti ncome(reported)
Avendu sn et income
S haresoutstanding(mn)
Avendusdi l.shares(mn)
Avendu sEPS(INR)

DecompositionofRoA(%)
03/11
8.2
0.2
0.0
1.0
9.4
5.3
4.1
0.5
0.8
2.8
0.6
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
82
82
13.7

03/12f
4.7
0.2
0.0
1.0
5.9
6.0
0.1
1.6
5.3
7.1
3.1
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
4.0
82
82
49.4

03/13f
9.7
0.3
0.0
1.1
11.0
7.1
3.9
0.5
0.5
3.0
1.3
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.7
82
82
20.8

03/14f
15.3
0.5
0.0
1.2
17.0
7.8
9.2
0.8
0.9
7.5
3.2
4.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
4.3
82
82
52.3

18.5
39.8
41.4
782.4
35.8
46.1

9.7
42.6
13.7
212.0
461.7
461.7

51.1
105.1
31.3
70.8
142.1
142.1

81.8
58.6
69.5
69.5
151.4
151.4

87.3
2.2
43.5
11.9
0.0

79.6
3.9
1.8
68.1
35.3

87.6
2.8
35.7
15.4
0.0

90.2
3.1
54.2
25.1
0.0

Fiscalyear end ing


N et interest income
Feei ncome
O therincome
O perati ngincome
O perati ngexpenses
Operatin gprofit
Loanlossprovisions
Depreciation
Extr amordinaries
Tax
N et profit

03/11
21.4
0.5
2.6
24.5
13.4
11.1
6.2
0.4

1.6
2.9

03/12f
11.3
0.6
2.3
14.2
14.0
0.2
16.7
0.5

(7.3)
(9.7)

03/13f
18.4
0.6
2.0
21.0
13.0
8.0
1.8
0.5

2.5
3.2

03/14f
17.9
0.6
1.3
19.8
8.6
11.2
2.0
0.4

3.8
5.0

R oA
Assets/Equity
R oE

2.9 (9.7) 3.2 5.0


2.8 2.7 3.6 5.0
8.2 (25.7) 11.7 24.8

KeyRatios

Growthratios(%)
Loans
Neti nter est income
F eeincome
Prov isionforbaddebt
Avendusnet income
AvendusEPS

Operatingratios(%)

Fiscalyear end ing


Valuatio nratio s (x )
P/E(onAv endusEPS)
P/BV
P/Adjust edB V
Div idendyield(%)

03/11

03/12f

03/13f

03/14f

38.2
2.4
2.5
0.0

10.6
3.1
3.3
0.0

25.1
2.8
3.1
0.0

10.0
2.2
2.7
0.0

14.8
14.8
217.9
212.5
0.0

49.4
49.4
168.5
158.1
0.0

20.8
20.8
189.3
166.7
0.0

52.3
52.3
234.2
194.3
0.0

Pershareratios(INR)

NII/oper ati ngincome


F eeincome/operatingincome
Operatingprofit margi n
Netprofitmargin
Effecti veTaxrate

Balancesheet(INRmn)
F iscalyearending
Equity capital
Preferencecapit al
Reservesandsurpl us
Networt h
Totalborrowings
Totalliabilities
CurrentAsset s
Less:Current Liabil ities
Investments
Advances
F ixedasset s
Ot herassets
Totalassets

03/11
0.8

17.0
17.8
22.4
40.2
7.5
2.8
0.0
34.8
0.3
0.4
40.2

03/12f
0.8

13.0
13.8
29.6
43.4
5.5
0.7
0.0
38.2
0.4

43.4

03/13f
0.8

14.7
15.5
46.1
61.5
4.2
0.7
0.0
57.6
0.4

61.5

03/14f
0.8

18.3
19.1
90.9
110.1
6.2
1.4
0.0
104.8
0.5

110.1

BusinessRatios(%)
Loan/Deposit
Sharestoinvestments

155.6
5.3

128.9
100.0

125.1
100.0

115.2
100.0

BasicReportedEPS(INR)
DilutedReportedEPS(INR)
ReportedBookValue(BV)
AdjustedBookValue(ABV)
Dividendpershare(INR)
Return/ProfitabilityRatios(%)
Yieldonadvances
Costoffunds
Spreads
Netinterestmargin
Feeincome/Oprevenue
Opexpense/Oprevenue
CapitalizationRatios(%)
Equity/Assets
Loans/Assets
Investments/Assets
Dividendpayout
Internalcapitalgrowth
Capitaladequacy
AssetQuality
GrossNPLratio
NetNPLratio
NetNPL/networth
Loanlossreserve/GrossNPL
Loanprovisions/NII
Loanprovisions/Totalloans
Productivity/Efficiencyratios
Netprofitperemployee(INRmn)

27.3 18.6 22.3 21.5


12.3 12.6 12.8 12.5
15.0 6.0 9.5 9.0
23.6 12.4 16.8 14.6
1.6 2.5 1.9 2.0
40.6 61.6 42.9 29.0
41.2 31.1
80.9 86.6
0.1 0.0


11.7 (22.8)
48.8 38.0

24.7
92.6
0.0

12.4
25.7

17.1
94.0
0.0
14.0
23.9
17.8

2.4 5.0 5.5 4.8


1.3 2.3 3.4 3.3
2.5 6.2 12.0 17.1
62.4 85.8 15.2 16.1
29.1 124.8 12.0 7.2
4.4 14.0 1.6 1.0
0.0

(0.2) 0.1

0.2

Financials

India Equity Research

SKSMicrofinance

AnalystCertification
I,JayneeShah,MBA(Finance),researchanalystandauthorofthisreport,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews
aboutthesubjectcompany/companiesanditsortheirsecurities.Wefurthercertifythatnopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbe,directlyorindirectlyrelatedtospecific
recommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocument.

Disclaimer
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DisclosureofInterestStatement(asofNovember8,2011)

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SKSMicrofinance

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