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Technical and Economical Feasibility Study of Nuclear Power Plant and Water Desalination Plant for Jordan

Ned Xoubi, PhD Jordan Atomic Energy Commission , A presentation to IAEA Pre-project Experts Mission June, 6, 2006
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

OUTLINE
Introduction ..... Jordan Current Power Generation and Future Demands Current Water Situation and Future Demands Why Nuclear Feasibility Study

Dr. Xoubi

June 6, 2006

INTRODUCTION
Total Area: 89,544 sq. km Land area 88,802 sq. km About 80% is dessert

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June 6, 2006

POPULATION DENSITY
Population 5,350,000 (2004)
Governorate Irbid Jarash Balqa Ajlun Amman Zarqa Madaba sub total (000) 952 161 356 123 2047 799 135 4573 (%) 17.8% 3.0% 6.7% 2.3% 38.3% 14.9% 2.5% 85.5% Density # / Sq km 606 393 318 293 270 168 144 272

Dr. Xoubi

June 6, 2006

FACTS & FIGURES

GDP (million) GDP growth rate Inflation Rate GDP per Capita Individual Income Energy Imports (million) As % of GDP As % of Imports
Dr. Xoubi

$12,842 12.60% 3.40% $2,133 $2,339 $2,500 19.5 23.9
June 6, 2006

2005 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005

The Big Challenge
Jordan’s political stability and economic prospects depend heavily on Jordan’s ability to find realistic solutions to Rapid increase in Energy Demands Scarce water resources

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June 6, 2006

Jordan Electricity Consumption and Demand
Electricity Consumption will double in 11 years 8,089 (GWh) in 2004 15,077 (GWh) 2015 We need at least
Electricity Consumption (GWh)
16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Source MEMR, Jordan

810 MW(e) power plant with 100% availability
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Street Lighting 3% WaterPumping 15% Commercial 15%

Electrical Energy Consumption by Sector 2005
Others 2% Houshold 34%

Industrial 31%

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June 6, 2006

Total Net Electricity Generation, 1980-2003
KWh per capita / month Jordan 125 Israel 737
Total Net Electricity Generation (TWh)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980

Jordan Israel Finland

= 4200 / 8200 MW(e) We need at least

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Source Energy Information Administration, DOE, USA

6 /12 Nuclear power plant (700MW(e) )
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Jordan NEPCO electrical production cost vs.

Jordan cost
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

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June 6, 2006

WATER CHALENGE
Jordan is one of the ten most waterdeprived countries in the world A child born in 1960 entered the country where fresh water available annually was around 530 CM per capita By the year 2025, that amount will have diminished to 91 CM per capita a drop of over 80%
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

A Precious Commodity
The average U.S. citizen has more than 9,000 cubic meters of fresh water available per year, The average Jordanian citizen has less than 157 CM/year (All uses) The average Jordanians pays 3% of GDP/capita for water among the highest percentages in the world The rate in Europe and USA is 0.5 - 1.0%
Source WAJ

Dr. Xoubi

June 6, 2006

Water Supply for Household and Municipal Purposes
Water supply for household and municipal purposes (MCM), 2004 Region Middle North South Total million population 182.6 57.2 36.2 276 3,363,600 1,484,800 499,800 5,353,200 per capita 54 39 72 52

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June 6, 2006

Projected Water Demand
Total De mand, Avai lable Source s and De fi cit in MC M
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 MCM 800 600 400 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year

Demand Sources Deficit

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June 6, 2006

Water Cost

O&M cost of water per cubic meter based on billed water Total cost of water per cubic meter based on billed water

$0.66

$1.01

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June 6, 2006

Groundwater Depletion
F 1280: AWSA-2 OBSERVATION WELL AZRAQ BASIN P GE: 323783 -2 -4 -6 S.W.L [m bgl] -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 DATE SWL (m bgl) P GN : 147863 ALT : 514m TD: 195 Aquifer: Bs+B4 Type: Recorder

Groundwater depletion due to over exploitation in Azraq Basin
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Water Quality
Ec tre n d wi th ti m e i n AW S A15 3000 2500 2000 1500 EC 1000 500 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 (

T ime (yrs)

Salinity increase in groundwater due to overexploitation
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Project Objective
To conduct a feasibility study aiming at providing a long term solution for a sustainable source of electricity and fresh water in Jordan, at an economical price.

Dr. Xoubi

June 6, 2006

Is nuclear power a viable option to fulfill the energy and water needs of Jordan ?

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Study …
…… Solid

Comprehensive ….. Credible ……. Clear …….Scientific

Outcome …
Production of a comprehensive report that contains the eleven outputs which are believed to cover all aspects of deciding to use nuclear energy in Jordan. The report should help the decision maker, energy planners and power generation companies make a clear decision as to the viability of using nuclear energy as an energy source.
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Study Outputs
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Criteria for selecting a suitable reactor type Nuclear fuel selection criteria Nuclear power plant design criteria Nuclear plant sitting criteria and available areas Assessment of Jordan qualified technical manpower, and nuclear knowledge 6. Jordan public and governmental acceptance of nuclear power

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Study Outputs
7. Assessment of regional and international political positions to building a nuclear power plant in Jordan 8. Jordan projected future needs of energy demands 9. Economics of using nuclear energy compared to other conventional energy sources, in light of increasing fuel prices. 10. Jordan projected future needs of fresh water demands 11. Jordan economic climate and market willingness to invest in nuclear power
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Electricity
Electricity production capacity Analysis Demand analysis Energy demand modeling and computations Electrical Demand projection Electrical grid map marking Nuclear cost analysis Economic modeling Energy cost comparison
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Water
Fresh water resources analysis Demand analysis Water demand modeling computations Demand projection Desalination !!

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June 6, 2006

Questions

Dr. Xoubi

June 6, 2006