Friday, 07 September, 2012

5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook

No Threat
North FL (FriSat, Sun) Central FL (Fri, Mon,Tue) South FL

Low Threat
Damaging Wind/ Hail
Statewide (FriSat) Central FL (SunTue) South FL (SunTue)

Moderate Threat
Excessive Heat Wildfire

High Threat
Tropical Rip Currents
Panhandle Coast (Fri-Sun, Mon-Tue) Atlantic Coast (FriSat, Sun-Tue) Gulf Coast

Statewide (Fri-Sat)

West Central and South FL Beaches (Fri-Sun)


Position of Front on Saturday Night as Well as Chances for Severe Weather (Click to Update and Expand)

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Click to Update)

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts for Friday Through Tuesday

Cold Front to Bring Fall-Like Conditions to North Florida This Weekend… Isolated Severe Storms Possible on Saturday…Threats Include Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Small Hail… 90L Has Low Chance of Developing Before Reaching Florida…Elevated Risk of Rip Currents This Weekend…
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 09.07.12

Friday-Sunday: Moist air and an area of weak high pressure will allow for increased rain chances, between 20%-50% across Florida today. These showers and storms may begin filtering in from the Gulf of Mexico this morning, but most activity throughout the state will occur this afternoon in association with the seabreeze. On Saturday, a frontal boundary is forecast to sweep through the Southeast United States and cross into North Florida late Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. This may likely give North Florida its first taste of fall-like conditions. Prior to the frontal passage, however, moist air will preside over all of Florida which may allow showers and storms to form along the seabreeze. Rain chances will range from 40%-60% across North and Central Florida with a 20%-30% likelihood for rain across South Florida. As the front begins to travel into Central Florida on Sunday, humidity will begin to decrease and so will the rain chances for Northwest Florida. Northwest Florida will see a 10%20% chance of rain while the rest of Florida can expect to see a 30% to 60% probability of rain. Atmospheric conditions will support the possibility for a few of these isolated storms to become strong or even severe each day prior to the front. These storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. In addition, waterspouts may be possible across much of South and West Central Florida beaches. Widespread rainfall accumulations are forecast to remain below a half of an inch each, but a few of the storms may be slow-moving. This could result in locally heavy rainfall which may exacerbate flooding concerns. Although a cold front is expected to pass through North Florida, afternoon high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s statewide each day. Meanwhile, overnight conditions are expected to be drastically different as the front pushes through. Before the front, muggy nights with lows in the 70s are expected. In addition, patchy fog will be possible in Northeast Florida. Behind the front, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s. Therefore, North Florida will begin seeing temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s on Sunday night, while Central and South Florida will see lows in the 70s all weekend. Monday-Tuesday: As the front continues to push through Central Florida, it will begin to weaken and dissipate. The front is expected to be over Ocala on Monday and over the I-4 corridor on Tuesday. A 30%-40% chance of rain will accompany partly to mostly cloudy skies before the front while a 10% chance of rain with considerably clearer skies are forecast to exist behind it. Although a severe weather outbreak is not forecast, a few of the storms may reach severe thresholds. These storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Widespread rainfall accumulations are forecast to remain below a half of an inch each, but higher amounts are possible in the strongest or slow-moving storms. Afternoon highs will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s across the state both days. Meanwhile, any showers and storms will begin to dissipate in the evening hours. Overnight lows will be in the 70s ahead of the front and in the mid to upper 60s behind the front.
NWS Mobile Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards

NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards Current Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Listed By County Rip Currents:
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 09.07.12

Lingering waves from distant tropical storm Leslie will generate a moderate risk of rip currents along Atlantic Coast beaches from Nassau County through Martin County. This pattern will likely persist through the weekend before diminishing to low levels. Unsettled weather associated with 90L will also generate a moderate rip current risk for the Panhandle Coast today. This pattern will likely persist through Saturday before 90L shifts overland and waves diminish. The remaining Gulf Coast as well as Southeast Florida Coast will see a low risk of rip currents. Anyone who plans to enter the water should check their local rip current forecast before going to their beach destination. Everyone should always remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards. Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches. Drought & Fire Weather: Recent rainfall accumulations as well as current rain chances will keep the fire risk across Florida at low levels for the next 5 days. In addition, our drought conditions have nearly diminished statewide. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the rains from Isaac has eliminated the entire drought conditions across Florida. Florida is 100% drought-free! In fact, several rivers remain in flood stage. Seasonable rainfall accumulations are expected to keep Florida from reentering a long term drought for the next 3 months. Tropics: As of 2PM EDT Friday, the low pressure system designated as 90L remains nearly stationary and is located about 80 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized and are still displaced to the southwest of the center of the low pressure system. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development as it drifts toward the east ahead of an approaching cold front this weekend. Some computer models show 90L reaching weak tropical storm strength in 60-72 hours, but models can be very unreliable with poorly organized systems. If this system does develop into a named storm, it will be named Nadine. The National Hurricane Center has decreased the chance for development from yesterday and is now indicating a low (20%) chance that this system could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next two days as it drifts southward. Computer models suggest that 90L will drift south or southwestward through the next day or so as a cold front picks it up and shifts it toward the northeast or east this weekend. The most recent run of computer models suggest that 90L will move onshore somewhere between Pensacola and Sarasota in the next to 2 to 3 days. As of 2 PM EDT, Hurricane Leslie weakened slightly and downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm Leslie was located about 390 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, which is also approximately 1,131 miles east of Miami, Florida. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65 mph and little change in strength is forecast for today, but as it begins to move northward, it may regain hurricane status this weekend. Leslie is currently moving to the North at 5mph and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows an increase of forward speed as it turns toward the northeast. Further east, as of 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Michael was located 930 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands. Maximum sustained winds have remain near 105 mph making Michael a category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Michael is forecast to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. Michael is moving toward the northwest at 3 mph and a turn toward the northwest is expected to occur through tomorrow before it turns back toward the northwest tonight. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Hurricane Michael in the
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 09.07.12

open Atlantic Ocean and far away from all land areas. A few tropical waves are also forecast emerge from the coast of Africa over the next few days, and the models indicate that these waves could develop. Fortunately, the models are also currently predicting that these systems will likely curve to the north before reaching Florida. These waves, however, will need to be monitored as they traverse the Atlantic. More information from the National Hurricane Center can be found here. Florida NCAA Division 1 Football Forecast
UM @ Kansas State in Manhattan, Kansas Kickoff 12:00pm EDT Temperatures are expected to rise from 70° at kick-off until they peak near 77° at the final snap. There will be a 5%-10% chance of isolated showers and storms throughout the game under clear skies. Winds will be from the northwest at 8-10mph. UCF @ Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio Kickoff 12:00pm EDT Temperatures will stay relatively steady ranging between 69° and 71° throughout the game. There will be a 20% chance of isolated showers under cloudy skies. Conditions will begin to clear throughout the game ending with mostly cloudy skies. Winds are expected to be out of the northwest at 15 mph with occasional gusts of up to 26 mph. USF @ Nevada in Reno, Nevada Kickoff 3:30 pm EDT Kick-off temperatures will start at 90° and decrease to about 83° at the end of regulation. Conditions throughout the game will be quite pleasant with mostly clear skies. Winds will start from the southeast between 7 and 9 mph and increase to between 12-14 mph with gusts up to 21 mph with a shift to the west near the conclusion. Florida @ Texas A&M in College Station, Texas Kickoff 3:30pm EDT Temperatures are expected to decerase slightly from 89° at kickoff to about 86° at the conclusion. A 5%-10% chance of rain will accompany decreasing cloud coverage and winds out of the northeast at 18-21 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. FIU vs. Akron in Miami, Florida Kickoff 6:00pm EDT Partly to mostly cloudy skies will accompany a kick off temperature of 83°. Temperatures at the end of the game are expected to decrease to about 79 degrees. Scattered showers will be possible with rain chances persisting at 20%. Winds are expected to be from the southwest at 10mph. Bethune-Cookman @ South Carolina State in Orangeburg, South Carolina Kickoff 6:00pm EDT Temperatures are expected to decrease from 90°at kickoff to 73° at the final whistle. Heat index values will also be high, near 98° towards the beginning, but that will back off as the game progresses. Rain chances will be between 40% and 50% under mostly cloudy skies. Florida State vs. Savannah State in Tallahassee, Florida Kickoff 6:00pm EDT Temperatures will be on a steady decline from 83°at the start to about 77° at the conclusion. Scattered showers and storms will be possible as rain chances will around 40% for the whole game under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the southwest between 5 and 10 mph. FAU @ Middle Tennessee in Murfreesboro, Tennessee Kickoff 7:00pm EDT Temperatures are expected to decrease from 74° at the start to about 65 at the game’s end. A few isolated showers are possible as rain chances remain less than 10% under clear skies. Winds are expected to be from the north or north-northwest at 10 mph decreasing to 5 mph.
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 09.07.12

FAMU @ Oklahoma in Norman, Oklahoma Kickoff 7:00pm EDT Temperatures will continue their decreasing trend from 75° at the opening kickoff to about 63° at the game’s conclusion. Winds out of the north-northwest between 4 and 8 mph will accompany clear skies.

For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities:
Pensacola • Panama City • Tallahassee • Gainesville • Jacksonville • Daytona Beach Orlando • Tampa • Fort Myers • West Palm Beach • Miami • Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Have a great weekend!! Stay safe and drink plenty of water. Bradley Schaaf, Meteorologist State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 09.07.12

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