PROBABILITY AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN REAL LIFE

BY: M.BALARAM (SC10B121) AVIONICS. Meaning and Importance Probability is the study of random events. It is used in analyzing games of chance, genetics, weatherprediction, and a myriad of other everyday events. Statistics is the mathematics we use to collect, organize,and interpret numerical data. It is used to describe and analyze sets of test scores, election results, and shoppers’ preferences for particular products. Probability and statistics are closely linked because statistical data are frequently analyzed to see whether conclusions can be drawn legitimately about a particular phenomenon and also to make predictions about future events. For instance, early election results are analyzed to see if they conform to predictions from pre-election polls and also to predict the final outcome of the election. Understanding probability and statistics is essential in the modern world, where the print and electronic media are full of statistical information and interpretation. The goal of mathematical instruction in this area should be to make students sensible, critical users of probability and statistics, able to apply their processes and principles to real-world problems. Students should not think that those people who did not win the lottery yesterday have a greater chance of winning today! They should not believe an argument merely because various statistics are offered. Rather, they should be able to judge whether the statistics are meaningful and are being used appropriately. The concept has been given an axiomatic mathematical derivation in probability theory, which is used widely in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, artificial intelligence/machine learning and philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events. Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities of complex systems. Probability in Our Lives Probability is a measure of the expectation that an event will occur or a statement is true. Probabilities are given a value between 0 (will not occur) and 1 (will occur).The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur. A basic understanding of probability makes it possible to understand everything from batting averages to the weather report or your chances of being struck by lightning! Probability is an important topic in mathematics because the probability of certain events happening - or not happening - can be important to us in the real world.

What is the probability of the coin landing tails? We can do the same analysis as for the coin landing heads. If we're looking for the chance it will rain. There is only one way for a coin to land heads. . Thus the probability of a coin landing heads is 1/2. knowing that if a coin doesn't land heads it has to land tails.Weather forecasting Suppose you want to go on a picnic this afternoon. etc. means that it is more likely to rain than not. If our meteorologist has data for 100 days with similar weather conditions (the sample space and therefore the denominator of our fraction). Since a 50% probability means that an event is as likely to occur as not. 70%. or. which is the same as saying that a coin lands heads 50% of the time. it rained. humidity. The sample space consists of the total number of ways that a coin can land. subtract: the probability of a coin landing tails must be 1 . Since a coin can only land either heads or tails . so 100% . pressure. and understanding that the sum of the probabilities must equal 1. and the weather report says that the chance of rain is 70%? Do you ever wonder where that 70% came from? Forecasts like these can be calculated by the people who work for the National Weather Service when they look at all other days in their historical database that have the same weather characteristics (temperature. and the probability that it won't rain is 30%. to find basic probability we divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes in our sample space. Flipping coins If you want to know the probability of a coin landing heads. the probability of rain on the next similar day is 70/100 or 70%.2 ways . and on 70 of these days it rained (a favorable outcome).) and determine that on 70% of similar days in the past.70% = 30%. But what is the probability that it won'train? Remember that because the favorable outcomes represent all the possible ways that an event can occur. finding a probability of 1/2. As we've seen. this will be the number of days in our database that it rained divided by the total number of similar days in our database.1/2 = 1/2.the sample space is made up of only two possible outcomes and the denominator of the probability fraction is 2. heads is the favorable outcome. the sum of the various probabilities must equal 1 or 100%. so the numerator of the probability fraction is 1. which is greater than 50%.

which consists of the number of permutations of size k that can be taken from a set of n objects: . For baseball stats we multiply all the percentages by 10. Imagine a lottery where you pick six numbers from 1-49 and for a winning number. Even if your coin has fallen heads 50 times in a row. Batting averages Let's say your favorite baseball player is batting 300. he has only a 30% chance of getting a hit . no matter how many times you flip a coin. you are much more likely to die in a car accident than by being struck by lightning. the chance that the next toss will fall tails is still 1/2. each time the coin is equally likely to fall heads or tails. you can see how hard it is to get a hit in the Major Leagues! Are we likely to be struck by lightning? In the United States. their order matters.In this case.000032%. or a probability of about . so a 30% probability translates to a 300 batting average. the sample space contains the entire population of the United States (about 250 million). If we assume that all the people in our sample space are equally likely to be killed by lightning (so people who never go outside have the same chance of being killed by lightning as those who stand by flagpoles in large open fields during thunderstorms). not including walks. Thus if in 10 at-bats a player gets 3 hits.and since most batters hit below 300. A hit is a favorable outcome. What does this mean? A batting average involves calculating the probability of a player's getting a hit. his or her batting average is 3/10 or 30%. This means that when a Major Leaguer with a batting average of 300 steps up to the plate. the chance of being killed by lightning in the United States is equal to 80/250 million. Here you must use the formula for permutations to figure out the size of the sample space. Considering being killed by lightning to be our 'favorable outcome' (not such a favorable outcome!). both probabilities (a 1/2 chance of landing either heads or tails) remain true. The lottery What if you want to know the probability of winning the lottery? Combination and permutation formulas are very useful for solving probability problems. Clearly. The sample space is the total number of at-bats a player has had. an average of 80 people are killed by lightning each year.

which is equal to: 49! 49_C_6 = ---------. there is again only one favorable outcome . If we define the lottery in a slightly different way. a probability of 50%. which is equal to: 49! 49_P_6 = -----. The probability of winning this second lottery is 1 in 14 million. This means that the probability of winning the lottery is about 1 in 10 billion. . What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets? If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets.520 43! Since only one possible ordering of the six numbers can win the lottery. The sample space.347. you need to buy lots and lots of tickets before the number of tickets you hold really makes a difference. but this time order doesn't matter.= 10. is quite large because it is equal to 49_P_6.n! n_P_k = --------(n . Suppose you still pick 6 numbers from 1-49.= 13. you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. which consists of the number of combinations of size k that can be chosen from a set of n objects: n! n_C_k = ------------k! (n . your chances of winning would still only be 100/14 million . However. the sample space has shrunk considerably (by a factor of 1000) because 49_C_6 is only roughly 14 million.k)! In our problem. the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million. however.not even close to a 1% chance. there is only one favorable outcome.068. Now you can use the formula for combinations to figure out the sample space. the probability of winning greatly improves. Given the second lottery. which is roughly 10 billion.816 6! * 43! Since there is only one combination of six numbers that will win the lottery. Thus you can see that the more tickets you buy.so your chances of choosing the winning number are quite slim. Even if you buy 100 tickets (which might cost you $100). However.k)! In our problem. with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations. we want to find 49_P_6. we want to find 49_C_6. the better your chances of winning the lottery.983.