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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 7, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Friday| September 7, 2012

Highlights
US Unemployment Claims declined 365,000 for w/e on 31st August. German Factory Orders increased by 0.5 percent in July. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.4 percent in August.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield 5238.4 17346.3 13292 1432.1 15780.3 1881.2 58321.2 8680.6 95.53 1702.60 3261.90 7708.75 472.97 99.91 Prev. day 0.2 0.2 1.9 2.0 4.3 0.4 2.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 -0.3 0.7 0.1

as on September 6, 2012 WoW -1.4 -1.1 2.2 2.3 6.8 -1.3 1.9 -0.1 1.0 3.0 7.4 1.8 0.3 0.2 MoM -1.6 -1.2 1.0 2.7 7.7 -3.1 -0.8 -3.3 2.3 5.3 16.1 2.2 1.2 -0.1 YoY 2.2 1.6 16.4 22.9 7.7 2.6 #N/A -0.9 6.9 -6.2 -21.5 -15.2 -22.8 3.4

Asian markets are trading on a upbeat note after European Central bank policy makers announced an unlimited bond buying program to reduce the borrowing cost for the debt ridden nations of the region thereby raising the demand for the riskier assets. US Challenger Job Cuts declined by 36.9 percent in August as against a decline of 44.5 percent in July. Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 201,000 in August from previous rise of 173,000 a month ago. Unemployment Claims declined by 12,000 to 365,000 for the week ending on 31st August as compared to rise of 377,000 in prior week. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.1 points to 53.7-mark in last month with respect to previous level of 52.6 in July.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.2 percent on the back of rise in the risk appetite on positive outcome of the European Central bank (ECB) meeting held yesterday where policymakers agreed on unlimited bond buying program to reduce the borrowing costs of the sovereign debt. This led to fall in the demand for the low yielding currency that is DX. US equities traded on a firm note taking positive cues from the ECB meeting held yesterday amidst favorable economic data from the US economy. The currency touched a low of 81.01 and closed at 81.03 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.03 55.66 55.88 55.88 Prev. day -0.2 0.4 -0.45 -0.46

as on September 6, 2012 WoW -0.8 -0.1 0.02 0.00 MoM -2.0 -0.9 0.25 0.23 YoY 7.2 -17.1 20.97 21.04

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of unlimited bond buying plan by the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to curtail Euro Zone debt crisis also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was restricted as a result of decline in FII inflows coupled with dollar demand from the oil companies. It touched an intra-day high of 55.62 in yesterdays trade and closed at 55.65 on Thursday. For the current month, FII outflows totaled at Rs 38.60 crores till 6 September 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 63,031.10 crores till 6th September 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Rupee to appreciate taking positive cues from global markets after constructive outcome from the ECB held yesterday along with weakness in the DX.
th

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for September 7, 2012 Support 55.75/55.6 Resistance 56.1/56.3

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Currencies Daily Report


Friday| September 7, 2012

Euro/INR
The Euro increased by 0.2 percent owing to positive statement announced in the ECB meeting by President Mario Draghi that policy makers have agreed on unlimited bond buying program to stem the rising Euro zone debt. Also, favorable economic data from the region added to the gains of currency. It touched a high of 1.265 and closed at 1.2628 in yesterdays session. European Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at -0.2 percent in Q2 of 2012. German Factory Orders increased by 0.5 percent in July from previous decline of 1.6 percent a month ago. European Minimum Bid Rate kept unchanged at 0.75 percent for the month of September. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to trade with upward bias on the back of positive outcome of the ECB meeting held yesterday. Additionally, weakness in the DX might support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.25/70.05 70.7/71.0 valid for September 7, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2628 70.30 70.42 70.4 Prev. day 0.2 0.2 0.07 0.06

as on September 6, 2012 WoW 1.0 -1.0 0.54 0.54 MoM 2.6 -3.6 2.41 2.40 YoY -10.4 -7.4 7.73 7.70

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on September 6, 2012

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, key interest rates were kept unchanged which also supported upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 1.5941 and closed at 1.5931 on Thursday. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.4 percent in August as against a previous decline of 0.6 percent in July. Asset Purchase Facility remained unchanged at 375 billion Pounds in the current month. Bank of England (BOE) kept the Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5 percent for the month of September. Outlook We expect Pound to trade rangebound with upward bias due to positive global market sentiments triggered by favorable outcome of ECB meeting held yesterday along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, encouraging data from the nation might also add to the appreciation of the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for September 7, 2012 Support 88.65/88.5 Resistance 89.15/89.45 Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5931 88.67 88.80 Prev. day 0.2 0.3 -0.35 WoW 0.9 -1.0 0.40 MoM 1.9 -2.8 2.49 YoY -0.4 -20.2 19.54

88.79

-0.34

0.42

2.47

19.53

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report


Friday| September 7, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day low of 79.02 in yesterdays trading session and closed at 78.85 on Thursday. Outlook In todays trade, we expect Yen to depreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which will reduce the demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for September 7, 2012 Support 70.96/70.75 Resistance 71.45/71.75

JPY (% change)
Last 78.85 0.7056 71.15 71.13 Prev day 0.6 1.0 -0.58 -0.59

as on September 6, 2012 WoW 0.3 0.2 0.21 0.18 MoM 0.4 -0.5 0.07 0.08 YoY 2.1 -18.1 19.04 19.03

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 7, 2012


Indicator Manufacturing Production m/m PPI Input m/m Consumer Inflation Expectations German Industrial Production m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m NIESR GDP Estimate Country UK UK UK Euro US US US UK Time (IST) 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 2.1% 1.6% 0.1% 121K 8.3% 0.2% Previous -2.9% 1.3% 3.7% -0.9% 163K 8.3% 0.1% -0.2% Impact High High Medium Medium High High Medium Medium

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