Septemb 10, 201 ber 12

Bach hmann Rema ains Vu ulnerab ble
Status of the Contest for U.S. Congres s C f C ss
To: Interested Parties d

rg From: Greenber Quinlan Rosner Research
t A tracking poll1 in Min nnesota’s 6th District sho that Con ows ngresswoma Michele B an Bachmann remains vulnerable to defeat. Jim Graves ha closed th e gap in the vote for U.S Congress to o m as e S. s 46 – 48 percent, up from a 43 – 48 percent margin in Ju ne. Bachma fails to a p f 4 m ann achieve majority support for the secon poll in a row; more im f nd r mportant, she has lost sig e gnificant sup pport from th he crucial in ndependent voters in the district, with a 20-point net swing in favor of Gr v e h n raves among this g key group since June Independ e. dent voters account for t he bulk of th movemen in the race a he nt e, with a 20 0-point net sh toward Graves, from a 41 – 45 p hift G m percent disadvantage in June to a 52 – 37 perce lead now. ent

Figu 1: Congressional Vo by Partis ure ote sanship, Jun and August 2012 ne


This mem is based on a survey of 401 likely November 201 general ele mo o o N 12 ection voters. Calling took place August 29 9-30, 2012. These data are subject to a sampling err of ±4.9 pe rcentage poin e ror nts.
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Minnesota CD-6: Status of the Contes for U.S. Con a s st ngress


Eight weeks out from Election Da just 40 percent of vo m ay, p oters say Bac chmann is d doing an excellent or good job steady from June. Ho t b, m owever, her s standing has fallen amo independ s ong dent voters. In June, 36 percent of ind n dependent voters gave B v Bachmann a excellent or good job an performa ance rating; now, just 32 percent rate her perform n e mance exce ellent or good while 66 d, percent rate her job as just fair or poor (an in r a o ncrease of 7 points from June). m ure P e P August 2012 2 Figu 2: Job Performance Rating by Partisanship , June and A

Voters in Minnesota’s 6th District are ready to make a ch n o hange from M Michele Bachmann, and Jim d Graves’ record of loo r oking out for Minnesota’s middle clas appeals t voters. W the s ss to With resource to introduc himself an communi es ce nd icate his sto to voters, Graves can defeat ory , n Bachman this Nove nn ember.

 2012 Greenberg Quinla Rosner, All Rights Reserved. an

September 2012 r

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