SOME INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE CLIMATE OF EL PASO ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE NOAA/NWS

DAVID J. NOVLAN METEOROLOGIST/FORECASTER CLIMATE FOCAL POINT KEPZ dave.novlan@noaa.gov

National Weather Service Mission Statement

The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate products, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. "

THE NATIONAL PICTURE

NOAA/NWS

www.weather.gov/elpaso

AWC / CWSU

RFC s

WATCHES WARNINGS WINTER WX FIRE WX

A Severe thunderstorm is one which produces winds 58 mph or greater and/or hail 1 inch or greater. And / or a tornado.

EL PASO HAS THE TWO HIGHEST THREATS!!

Hazardous Weather :
STATEMENTS
o Hazardous Weather Outlook o NOW – an update of current and short-term weather conditions. (FYI statement) o Special Weather Statement – notification that some form of significant weather is occurring. (Heads-up statement) o Watch* - conditions are favorable for severe weather in and near watch area. (Stay tuned / Be ready statement) o Warning* - severe weather event is imminent or already occurring. (Take precautions now statement)
* severe thunderstorm winter weather * flash flood * high wind * tornado *

MAY JUNE……SEP OCT ARE THE SEVERE MONTHS AND JULY AUG SEP ARE MONOON MONTHS jet stream and freezing levels

MODELING IS THE FURURE

Seamless Suite of Products

Outlooks

Guidance

Forecast Lead Time

Seasons Months 8 – 14 Days 6 – 10 Days Days Hours Minutes

Years

Forecast Uncertainty

Threats Assessments

Forecasts

Watches

Note log log scale nature
Space Operations Fire Weather Agriculture Reservoir Energy State/Local Environment Control Planning

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Protection of Life & Property

Flood Mitigation Transportation Hydropower Recreation Ecosystem Health & Navigation

NCDC

Data Sources

• Forecast Warning Analysis • NWS COOP Observers • Hourly Airways • NCEP Charts • Ship Reports • Rocketsondes • Storm Data • Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD)

• Satellite • Aircraft • Profiler • • Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) Climate Reference Network (CRN)
2004 HPSS User ForumNOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

APRIL AAAPRIL 18-29 18 2011

Drought Termination and Amelioration National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina

DROUGHT IS A BIG DEAL!
MEDICAL ANALOGY…. WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EL PASO

WSMR/FLA

TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER

TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER

RED FLAG WARNINGS
For Critical Fire Weather days
RED FLAG RH < 15% WIND > 20 MPH >=HIGH DANGER IMET ON SITE

KEPZ CLAIM TO FAME IS FIRE WX

WE ARE 24/7 4

SMART?

WARNING TOOLS:

DOPPLER RADAR
NOW DUAL POL

(BOW ECHO)
WIND

HAIL

WARNING TOOLS:
GOES SIM

Equator 23K Miles

VIS...IR COLOR ENHANCED…WVI…FIRE WX… FOG/ST… SNOW COLD

Radiosonde 00/12z

430 or 1680 Hz H2/He

ALL HAZARDS RADIO
• WXK25 • El PasoFranklin Mtn. • 162.475100 • WNG652 • El Paso Spanish • 162.55300

AWIPS 4 PANEL + INTERNET

FUTURE SIM DOWNLOAD TO INTERNET BASED

GRAPHICAL FORECAST GENERATION GOES TO MULTI OUTPUT MEDIA

ICON TEXT GRAPHS DIGITAL IMAGE FACEBOOK TWITTER NOAA WX RADIO

CLIMATE OF EL PASO

2

CLIMATE OF EL PASO

SUBSIDENCE

DRY….DUSTY

MONSOON

COOL (NOT SO HOT)

16-18k JET SPRING N FALL DOWN

S V R
MONSOON

S V R

Transition Pattern

FLSH FLD

SEVERE WEATHER WINDOWS = f(Z0, jet)

DUST BOWL YEARS OF 30S PREVAIL ING E WINDS LA NINA GULF MEXICO SHUT OFF MY POSTION OF BERMUDA HIGH

JUNE 15 – SEPT 30

MOISTURE SOURCES
DROUGHT

50% OF ANNUAL PRECIP WINDOW JUNE 15 – SEP 30
DELUGE

Gulf of California

Gulf of Mexico

EL PASO PIVOT POINT

6/15-9/20

50%

RIO GRANDE 2006

RUIDOSA 12

DOLLY 2008 TXDOT AND TMP…SUMMER GULF OF MEX…FALL GULF OF CALIF…BOTH FLASH FLOOD

DEFINITIONS
FLASH FLOOD
Serious flooding which occurs within six hours of the heavy rain event (or resulting from a dam break)

Most often in streams, arroyos and urban streets

Aug 17 1978…10 INCHES OF RAIN and 5 Dead at WSMR !

21Z SFC

ORO/TRAIN 5AM
10 IN/2 DAYS

THE POWER of MOVING WATER

LATERAL FORCE  500 lbs. per foot of depth at 9mph BOUYANCY FORCE 1500 lbs/ft of depth

NIGHT DANGER 6 IN / 12 IN

METEOROLOGICAL ENGINEERING SOCIOLOGICAL ECONOMIC AGRICULTURAL

DROUGHT ~

LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE JUST THAT

9.3 INCHES

EL PASO HAS THE TWO HIGHEST THREATS!!

TORNADOES
WEAK F0 & F1 on the Fujita Scale (70-112 mph)

Most in our area are weak

LANDSPOUT ~ WATERSPOUT

White Sands Missile Range May 2007

Confirmed Tornadoes
1955-1997

Average of one per year

Only Two F2s, One F3

SOME RECENT HAIL PRODUCERS
Chaparral 4-3-2004
$2 million

$8 million

West El Paso 9-28-07 Las Cruces 9-13-2006

$10 million

SEPTEMBER 16 2009 EAST EL PASO $150 MILLION IN DAMAGE

SUPERCELL
RAPID RISER IS A CLUE CRISP TOP ROATATING

meso

Cornudas TX April 2004

Seek

shelter in a strong building  Stay away from windows  Driving hazards include slick roads & shattered windshields

DEFINITIONS
DOWNBURST

Strong downdraft with damaging outflow upon impact with ground Called a “Microburst” when 2.5 miles or less in diameter

Wet mb

~ TORNADO DEBRIS

Damaging Downbursts… Recognizing the danger

DOWNBURSTS

SPREADING AT SURFACE

DOWNBURSTS
Inverted v

DRY MICROBURST (common in Spring, especially prior to monsoon)

WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU?

SHARED BLDU AND FLASH FLOODING AREA

A SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF BLOWING DUST EVENTS IN EL PASO, TEXAS FROM 1932-2005 David J. Novlan*

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