June 26, 2012

Bach
hmann Vulne
erable to
t Defe
eat in 2
2012
Status
s of the Contest
C
for
f U.S. Congres
C
ss
To:

Interested
d Parties

From: Greenberrg Quinlan Rosner Research

Congress
swoman Mic
chele Bachm
mann’s unsu
uccessful bid
d for preside
ent had a cle
ear and neg
gative
th
impact on her standing among voters
v
in the new Minnessota 6 CD. She receivves low markks on
both herr job perform
mance and personal fa
avorability. While she is well-deffined and almost
universally known, her support is
s below 50 percent
p
in a two-way co
ontest for U.S
S. Congresss. Her
weaker standing le
eaves her vulnerable to defeat in this No
ovember’s election ag
gainst
business
sman Jim Grraves.
6th Congresssional Distrrict1 shows tthat the district’s
A poll off 505 likely voters in Minnesota’s
M
voters arre not as conservative as
a conventio
onal wisdom
m suggests. While there
e is a Repub
blican
advantag
ge in partisanship, voterrs split on fee
elings towarrd groups likke Planned P
Parenthood (40 –
34 perce
ent warm/co
ool ratings) and
a
pro-life, anti-abortio
on groups ((41 – 38 pe
ercent warm
m/cool
ratings). The Tea Party receiv
ves net neg
gative rating
gs among tthe district’ss voters, witth 30
percent warm
w
and 43
3 percent co
ool ratings.
Bachman
nn also com
mes to the 20
012 elections with poor standing witth voters in the district. Just
39 perce
ent give her positive job performanc
ce ratings of either “exce
ellent” (14 percent) or “g
good”
(26 perce
ent), while 22
2 percent rate
r
her job as “just fairr” and more
e than one-third (34 perrcent)
rate her job
j performa
ance as “poo
or”. Bachma
ann is known
n by nearly e
every constittuent (96 pe
ercent
can identify and rate
e her), but re
eactions to her are stro
ongly negativve, with 51 p
percent of vvoters
giving he
er a cool, neg
gative rating
g and just 35
5 percent givving her a wa
arm, positive
e rating.

1

This surv
vey was prep
pared and sup
pervised by Greenberg
G
Qu inlan Rosner Research, In
nc. Calling too
ok
place June12-14, 2012
2. These findings, based on
o a sample ssize of 505 registered and likely November
ers, are subjec
ct to a sampliing error of ±4
4.4 percentag
ge points at a 95 percent cconfidence intterval.
2012 vote

WORL
LD HEADQUARTERS
S
10 G Street,
S
NE, Suite 500
0
Washin
ngton, DC 20002

EU
UROPEAN HEADQU
UARTERS
405 Carrington House
6 Hertford
H
Street
London UK W1J 7SU
U

LATIN AMERICAN
N HEADQUARTERS
S
Cabrera 6060, 7 D
C1414 BHN
Ciudad de Buenoss Aires, Argentina

www.gqrr.com | www.greenbergressearch.com

Minnesota
a CD-6: Status
s of the Contes
st

2

Figu
ure 1: Bachm
mann Job Pe
erformance and Person al Standing

The race
e for U.S. Co
ongress refle
ects her wea
akness with B
Bachmann u
under 50 perrcent and lea
ading
by only 5 points (48 – 43 percentt, with 9 perc
cent undecid
ded).
Figu
ure 2: Congrressional He
ead-to-Head

¤ 2012 Greenberg Quinla
an Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

June
e 2012

Minnesota
a CD-6: Status
s of the Contes
st

3

Notably, the gap in strength of support is
s also not a
as large as one would
d expect witth an
incumbent who is nearly
n
univerrsally known
n facing a rrelative new
wcomer. Just 31 perce
ent of
voters sa
ay they are certain to vote
v
for Bachmann, co
ompared to 26 percent who are ce
ertain
Graves voters.
v
This leaves a larrge persuada
able bloc up
p for grabs in
n November..
Bachman
nn faces a big
b challenge
e this year. Jim Gravess is a compe
elling candid
date—a man
n who
was born
n and raised
d in St. Cloud
d and is the product of a middle cla
ass family; a man who b
built a
successfful Minnesotta business from the grround up. O
Once people learn morre about him
m, he
gains support quicklly and move
es into a 9--point lead ((53 – 42 pe
ercent) in th
he Congresssional
contest.
Figu
ure 2: Congrressional He
ead-to-Head After Positivve Profiles

With the resources to
o communic
cate his story
y to voters a
and run a foccused campa
aign, Gravess can
defeat Ba
achmann thiis November.

¤ 2012 Greenberg Quinla
an Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

June
e 2012    

Jim Graves
G
s for Congres
ss
Frequency Qu
uestionna
aire
June 12 - 14, 2012
505 Like
ely Voters

Q.1 First of all, are yo
ou registered to vote at this addresss?
Total

Yes ......................................... .............................................. 100
No ........................................... ................................................. (Don't know/refuse
ed) ............. ................................................. (ref:RE
EGISTER)
ow it is a long
g way off, butt what are th
he chances o
of your voting
g in the electtion for presiident,
Q.2 I kno
U.S. Sen
nate and U.S
S. Congress in 2012 -- are you almo
ost certain to
o vote, will yo
ou probably vote,
are the chances
c
50-5
50, or don't you
y think you will vote?
Total

Almos
st certain......................... ............................................... 94
Probably ................................. ................................................ 5
50-50 ...................................... ................................................ 1
Won't vote .............................. ................................................. (Don't know) ........................... ................................................ 0
(Refus
sed)................................ ................................................. (ref:W
WILLVOTE2)
[15 Resp
pondents]
Q.3 (ASK
K IF NAME NOT
N
ON FIL
LE) How ofte
en would you
u say you vo
ote?
Total

Always .................................... ............................................... 62
Nearly
y always ......................... ............................................... 38
Part of the time ....................... ................................................. Seldom
m ................................... ................................................. (Never) ................................... ................................................. (Otherr/Don't know
w/Refused) .. ................................................. (ref:VO
OTEFREQ)

© 2012 Gre
eenberg Quinla
an Rosner, All Rights Reserve
ed.

June
e, 2012

Jim Graves for Congress: Frequency Questionnaire, June 12 - 14, 2012

2

Q.4 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or
do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Total

Right direction ..................................................................... 26
Wrong track ......................................................................... 66
(Don't know/Refused) ........................................................... 8
Right - Wrong..................................................................... -39
(ref:DIRECT)
Q.5 How would you rate the job being done by Michele Bachmann as Congresswoman -excellent, good, just fair or poor?
Just
DK/ Exc/
Exc Good Fair Poor Ref Good

5 Michele Bachmann as Congresswoman ................... 14
(ref:JOBRAT)

26

22

34

5

39

Q.6 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred
meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE
feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one
hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or
organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
%
%
Mean Warm Cool

%
ID

6 Barack Obama .............................................................................. 46

42

45

98

7 The Democratic Party ................................................................... 43

33

47

98

8 The Republican Party ................................................................... 46

36

41

98

9 Michele Bachmann ....................................................................... 42

35

51

96

10 Amy Klobuchar ............................................................................ 56

46

29

90

11 The Tea Party movement ........................................................... 43

30

43

87

12 Jim Graves .................................................................................. 46

6

7

20

13 Gay marriage .............................................................................. 44

35

44

94

14 Pro-life, anti-abortion groups ....................................................... 51

41

38

92

15 Minneapolis ................................................................................. 62

52

14

85

16 Planned Parenthood ................................................................... 49
(ref:THERM)

40

34

92

© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

June, 2012

Jim Graves for Congress: Frequency Questionnaire, June 12 - 14, 2012

3

Q.17 I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November, if
the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the DFL candidate or for the
Republican candidate?
Total

DFL candidate ..................................................................... 38
Lean DFL candidate ............................................................. 4
Republican candidate .......................................................... 45
Lean Republican candidate .................................................. 2
(Undecided) ......................................................................... 11
Total DFL candidate .......................................................... 42
Total Republican candidate.............................................. 47
(ref:GC1)
Q.18 Now thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November, if the election for U.S.
Congress were held today and the candidates were DFLer Jim Graves and Republican Michele
Bachmann for who would you vote?
Total

Jim Graves .......................................................................... 41
Lean Jim Graves .................................................................. 2
Michele Bachmann .............................................................. 46
Lean Michele Bachmann ...................................................... 1
(Undecided) .......................................................................... 9
Total Jim Graves ............................................................... 43
Total Michele Bachmann .................................................. 48
(ref:VOTE1)
Q.19 How certain are you that you would vote for (THAT CANDIDATE) -- are you very certain,
somewhat certain or not certain at all?
Total

Strong Graves ..................................................................... 26
Weak Graves....................................................................... 17
Weak Bachmann ................................................................. 16
Strong Bachmann................................................................ 31
(Undecided) .......................................................................... 9
(ref:CERTAIN)

© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

June, 2012

Jim Graves for Congress: Frequency Questionnaire, June 12 - 14, 2012

4

Q.20 Now I am going to read you some information about the candidates running for U.S
Congress.
Jim Graves, a businessman, was born and raised in St. Cloud as one of six siblings in a
middle-class family, where he worked to pay his own tuition for Catholic high school. He married
his high school sweetheart, Julie, and worked his way through St. Cloud State University. Graves
started the AmericInn motel chain from the ground up, creating thousands of good paying jobs for
the people of Minnesota. A Christian, Graves has spent his adult life volunteering in the
community and serving organizations dedicated to helping women and families. He is running for
Congress to take his experience creating jobs and building businesses to Washington, and will
work to restore fiscal responsibility, create more jobs that pay a living wage, and level the playing
field so that every American has the chance to reach their goals in life.
Michele Bachmann moved to Minnesota when she was 13, and graduated from Anoka High
School and Winona State University. She met her husband, Marcus, in college, and they married
and moved to Stillwater, where they run a Christian counseling center and cared for 23 foster
children. In Congress, Bachmann is a leading advocate for bipartisan earmark reform and tax
relief and is a staunch opponent of wasteful government spending. She pushed hard to get the
House of Representatives to authorize replacing the Stillwater Bridge, and worked across the
aisle with Minnesota's Senate delegation to get the bill signed by President Obama. She is a
reformer who stays true to her conservative beliefs while pushing for real reform of the broken
ways of Washington.
Q.21 After hearing more information, thinking again about the election for U.S. Congress in
November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were DFLer Jim
Graves and Republican Michele Bachmann for who would you vote?
Total

Jim Graves .......................................................................... 50
Lean Jim Graves .................................................................. 1
Michele Bachmann .............................................................. 42
Lean Michele Bachmann ...................................................... 2
(Undecided) .......................................................................... 5
Total Jim Graves ............................................................... 52
Total Michele Bachmann .................................................. 43
(ref:VOTE2)

© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

June, 2012

Jim Graves for Congress: Frequency Questionnaire, June 12 - 14, 2012

5

Q.22 In what year were you born?
Total

18 - 24 .................................................................................. 7
25 - 29 .................................................................................. 6
30 - 34 .................................................................................. 5
35 - 39 ................................................................................. 11
40 - 44 ................................................................................. 10
45 - 49 ................................................................................. 11
50 - 54 ................................................................................. 10
55 - 59 .................................................................................. 8
60 - 64 ................................................................................. 10
65 and over ......................................................................... 21
(No answer) .......................................................................... 1
(ref:AGE)
Q.23 What is the last year of schooling that you have completed?
Total

1 - 11th grade ....................................................................... 1
High School graduate .......................................................... 19
Non-college post H.S. .......................................................... 3
Some college....................................................................... 25
College graduate ................................................................. 37
Post-graduate school .......................................................... 14
(Don't know/Refused) ........................................................... 1
(ref:EDUC)
Q.24 Finally, I'd like to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes. Generally speaking, do
you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat or what?
Total

Strong Democrat ................................................................. 20
Weak Democrat.................................................................... 8
Independent-lean Democrat ................................................ 10
Independent ........................................................................ 12
Independent-lean Republican ............................................. 16
Weak Republican ................................................................ 12
Strong Republican ............................................................... 20
(Don't know/Refused) ........................................................... 0
(ref:PTYID1)
Q.25 Thinking in political terms, would you say that you are Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal?
Total

Liberal.................................................................................. 19
Moderate ............................................................................. 36
Conservative ....................................................................... 42
(Don't know/refused) ............................................................ 2
(ref:IDEO1)

© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

June, 2012

Jim Graves for Congress: Frequency Questionnaire, June 12 - 14, 2012

6

Q.26 How often do you attend church or religious services -- every week, once or twice a month,
several times a year, or hardly ever?
Total

Every week .......................................................................... 41
Once or twice a month ........................................................ 22
Several times a year............................................................ 14
Hardly ever .......................................................................... 18
(Never) ................................................................................. 4
(Don't know/Refused) ........................................................... 3
(ref:)
Q.27 Sex of respondent
Total

Male..................................................................................... 47
Female ................................................................................ 53
(ref:GENDER)

© 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

June, 2012

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful