Kimball Political Consulting, LLC Tracking Poll Analysis and Results September 7, 8, and 9, 2012 Massachusetts Statewide Survey

Executive Summary  A survey of registered “likely voters” in Massachusetts indicates that President Obama will carry the State and its 11 Electoral votes. o If the election were held today, President Obama would lead by 16 points over Mitt Romney, capturing 56% of the vote (4% undecided). This is a 5 point increase from the 8/21/2012 poll. The President’s overall favorability increased 3 points to 56% but among independents this drops to 45%. His unfavorable rating is down to 40%. Romney continues to have a higher unfavorable (55%) to favorable (40%) rating yet continues to lead amongst independent voters (47% to 44%)

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 Elizabeth Warren is in a virtual dead heat with Senator Brown with less than 1 point separating the two candidates (46% to 45%). o This is a 5 point gain for Warren since the last poll on 8/21/2012

 Perhaps the most interesting result is the favorability of both Senator Brown and Elizabeth Warren. With both Campaigns supporting no outside money on advertising, both candidates hold over a 50% favorable impression in the state (54% for Brown and 55% for Warren).

Methodology (Caller ID) All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in the state using a probability sampling method including both landline (n=536) and mobile devises (n=220) for a total sample of N=756 registered “likely” voters. The Margin of Error for the sample is +/- 3.5% with a confidence level of 95%. The survey was administered using an Automated Telephone Interviewing (ATI) system. The ATI system allows data to be entered directly into a computerized database through the numbers on interviewee’s phone, providing a highly reliable system of data collection. 1 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

A random sample of registered voters statewide was purchased from Aristotle Voter Lists, a leading supplier of voter lists to the survey research industry. A screening question was asked to all participants regarding how likely there were to vote in the November 6, 2012 General Election. Only those who answered “very likely” were included into the sample. The survey was conducted by Emerson College on September 7, 8 and 9, 2012. There were four total rounds of calling, one in the afternoon on September 7 between 3:30 and 4:30 (n=252) then a second round of calls between 6:30 and 7:30 that evening (n=213), followed by a round on September 8 at 11am (n=181) and the last round on Sunday at 11:30am (n=110) There was a response rate of 22% for this survey. Data Analysis The results presented in this report include univariate and bivariate analysis of the data. Frequency distributions for each item included on the questionnaire are shown in the tables. In all cases, cross-tabulation results are also shown. This type of bivariate analysis examines differences between sub-groups of the overall population. The purpose of these statistical tests is to determine whether or not the observed difference between sub-groups in the sample is due to sampling error or whether it is due to a real difference in the population. When the results are statistically significant, it strongly suggests that the observed difference between sub-groups found in the sample is due to a real difference in the population, and not due to sampling error. Survey data was not weighted based on political, gender and geographical demographics of the district because the sample itself properly reflected the parameters of Massachusetts in the following demographics. Party Affiliation Democrat Republican Independent Gender Female Male Age Category 18-29 30-39 6% 6% 2 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9 51% 49% 35% 12% 53%

40-49 50-59 60+ Region Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Boston Metro South Shore/Cape

14% 26% 48%

12% 12% 26% 27% 24%

Key Findings  Eighty one percent (81%) of Senator Brown voters are voting for Gov. Romney with 15% splitting their tickets and voting for President Obama. Elizabeth Warren voters are not splitting their tickets at all with 95% voting for President Obama and only 3% voting for Gov. Romney Voters for President Obama are splitting their ticket with 77% voting for Warren and 12% voting for Senator Brown. Gov. Romney voters are not splitting their tickets with 95% of voters staying with Senator Brown versus only 3% who would vote for Elizabeth Warren. Undecided Presidential voters are nearly twice as likely to vote for Senator Brown (34%) over Warren (20%). Undecided voters in the U.S. Senate race are nearly 9 times more likely to vote for President Obama (65%) compared to Gov. Romney (7%). The most important issue facing voters who would vote for Senator Brown is the deficit (42%) followed by jobs (31%) and healthcare (12%) Gov. Romney voters also find the deficit (46%) and Jobs (33%) as the top two issues. The most important issue facing voters who would vote for Elizabeth Warren is healthcare (33%) followed by jobs (26%) and the Deficit and Abortion rights are statistically tied for 3rd (11% and 10%) Similarly, President Obama voters find healthcare the most important issue (33%) then Jobs (26%) and then the Deficit and Abortion Rights (13% and 9%) 3 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

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Undecided voters are split amongst the most important issue with 25% saying Healthcare and Jobs and 24% with the Deficit.

Presidential Ballot Test  President Obama currently holds a 16 point lead over Gov. Romney with 4% undecided o o The President’s support comes from Democrats (90% to 8%) The Governors support comes from Republicans (94% to 4%) and he continues to win amongst Independents (47% to 44%) There is a small spike in the number of undecided voters in Central Massachusetts (10%) The Boston Metro region is the President’s strongest area capturing 68% of the vote compared to 28% for Governor Romney There were some statistical anomalies within the three days of calls with voters on Friday afternoon splitting there vote between the candidates (48% to 47%) but on Friday night the President had a 21 point lead and on Saturday morning the lead grew to 37 points. Sunday morning the results were closer at 7 points (49% to 42%)

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Compared to the 8/21/2012 poll, President Obama has increased his lead 5 points (52% to 41%) o o The Democrat base has solidified around their ticket (+8 points) 82% to 90% While females have not changed in their vote, men have moved from +2 for Governor Romney to +10 for President Obama. Amongst voters over the age of 60+, the President has increased his lead from 4 points to 15 points. President Obama has a lead in every region including the North Shore where he was down 16 points (54% to 38%) and is now up 6 points (51% to 45%)

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4 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

Presidential Ballot Test

Pres. Obama/Biden 56%

Gov. Romney/Ryan 40% 8% 94% 47% 35% 43% 40% 37% 40% 37% 40%

Undecided 4% 2% 2% 8% 7% 4% 6% 4% 8% 5% 5%

Democrat Republican Independent Female Male 18-29* 30-39* 40-49 50-59 60+ Subset is not significant* Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Metro Boston South Shore/Cape Friday 3pm Friday 6:30pm Saturday 11am Sunday 11:30am Landline Cell Phone

90% 4% 44% 58% 53% 53% 59% 53% 58% 55%

51% 50% 51% 68% 52%

41% 41% 45% 28% 44%

8% 10% 4% 4% 4%

48% 58% 66% 49% 55% 56%

47% 37% 29% 42% 39% 40%

5% 5% 5% 9% 6% 5%

U.S. Senate Ballot Test  The Race for U.S. Senate is a statistical dead heat with Senator Brown holding less than a 1 point lead (46% to 45%) with 9% of voters undecided. o Senator Brown continues to hold an 18 point lead amongst independents (54% to 36%) and amongst Republicans this lead grow to 86 points (91% to 5%) 5 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

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Elizabeth Warren has 73% support from Democrats with 17% supporting Senator Brown. Senator Brown looks to be doing well with the younger voter between 18-39 (14 point lead) Warren continues to hold a lead with voters 50-59 (52% to 40%) Senator Brown carries every region of the state, but Elizabeth Warren maintains strength in the Metro Boston Region with a 17 point lead (53% to 36%) There was a strange deviation of scores between the times of calls with Senator Brown carrying an 11 point lead in the Friday afternoon call, then Warren had a 5 point lead on the Friday evening call, and extended that lead on Saturday morning to 27 points but then Senator Brown bounced back with an 18 point lead on Sunday Morning.

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Compared with the results of the 8/21/2012 poll, Elizabeth Warren has erased a 6 point lead (49% to 43%). o Four percent (4%) of democrat voters moved from Senator Brown to Undecided while Warren continues to pull 73% of the democrats Warren has been able to slightly close the gap between Independents (+7 points) from 56%-31% to 54% -36%. Warren was able to erase a 15 point gap amongst men from 54% voting for Senator Brown to now 46% , while simultaneously increasing her vote amongst men from 39% to 45%. Senators Brown’s advantage amongst 40-49 year old voters was 26 points and now it is only 3 points (44% to 41%). Senator Brown has taken the lead in Western Mass from being down 4 points to being up 7 points, but his lead in the North Shore has dropped 20 points and 8 points in the South Shore

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6 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

U.S. Senate Ballot Test

Senator Brown 46% 17% 91% 54% 43% 46% 55% 52% 44% 40% 48%

Elizabeth Warren 45% 73% 5% 36% 46% 45% 32% 46% 41% 52% 44%

Undecided 9% 9% 3% 10% 12% 9% 13% 2% 15% 8% 8%

Difference

Democrat Republican Independent Female Male 18-29* 30-39* 40-49 50-59 60+ Subset is not significant* Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Metro Boston South Shore/Cape Friday 3pm Friday 6:30pm Saturday 11am Sunday 11:30am Landline Cell Phone

47% 50% 52% 36% 48% 52% 43% 37% 52% 45% 49%

40% 42% 41% 53% 45% 41% 48% 54% 34% 46% 44%

13% 9% 7% 11% 7% 6% 9% 9% 15% 10% 8%

Name Recognition Elizabeth Warren  Elizabeth Warren has over a 50% favorable impression throughout the state at 55% and a 38% unfavorable opinion. o Here favorable amongst Democrats is at 8 to 1 (82% to 11%) and is the opposite amongst Republicans (11% to 80%) 7 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

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However, amongst Independent voters, she has a slightly higher unfavorable (47%) to favorable (46%) rating. She seems to have the worst ratio and percentage amongst the younger voters (18-29 @ 49% unfavorable and 38% favorable) Warren’s favorability drops in Western Mass to 47% but stays constant in the other 3 regions outside of Metro Boston where she has over a 2:1 ratio (65% to 31%). The timing of the calls also swayed the opinions of the voters with Friday afternoon calls being her worst time and Friday evening (59% to 34%) and Saturday Morning (65% to 29%) were the best results for Warren.

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Compared with the 8/21/2012 poll that was conducted, Warren has increased her favorability by 6 points (49% to 55%) and maintained her unfavorable at 39%. Her image improved by 5 points amongst Democrats (77% to 82%) and Independents by 7 points (46% to 39%) Her image with men improved 10 points (42% to 52%) while her unfavorable rose 3 points (42% to 45%) Amongst Older voters her favorable impression increased as well from 52% to 59% amongst 50-59 year olds and increased ten points with voters over 60+ (from 50%-40% to 57%-37%) Her favorable impression dropped in Western Mass by 18 points but grew in Central Mass (+6), North Shore (+21), Metro Boston (+9) and South Shore/Cape (+4 points).

8 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

Elizabeth Warren

Favorable 55% 82% 11% 46% 57% 52% 38% 50% 48% 59% 57%

Unfavorable 38% 11% 80% 47% 35% 42% 49% 37% 43% 36% 37%

No Opinion 6% 5% 8% 7% 7% 5% 13% 7% 8% 5% 6%

Never Heard Of 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 7% 1% 0% 1%

Democrat Republican Independent Female Male 18-29* 30-39* 40-49 50-59 60+ Subset is not significant* Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Metro Boston South Shore/Cape Friday 3pm Friday 6:30pm Saturday 11am Sunday 11:30am Landline Cell Phone

47% 51% 50% 65% 54% 46% 59% 65% 50% 56% 51%

41% 39% 42% 31% 42% 47% 34% 29% 41% 37% 42%

9% 11% 8% 4% 3% 7% 6% 4% 8% 7% 4%

2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2%

Senator Scott Brown  Senator Brown holds a 54% favorable rating throughout the state with Republicans holding an 89% favorable impression of him. Amongst Independents, Senator Brown continues to play well with 62% favorable to 26% unfavorable ratings.

9 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

Almost one out of 3 (30%) of Democrats hold a favorable impression of Senator Brown versus the 56% who hold an unfavorable opinion. Only 11% of Republicans hold a favorable impression of Elizabeth Warren. Senator Brown continues to shine in the North Shore (61% to 29%) and manages to hold a favorable impression in the Boston Metro area (46% to 41%) Time of day also influenced Senator Browns favorability with the Friday afternoon callers holding a 2:1 favorable to unfavorable impression (61% to 29%) but the Saturday morning round was much closer at nearly 1:1 (45% to 42%). Senator Brown’s dropped from a 26 point difference in favorable to unfavorable impression on 8/21/2012 to a 20 point difference in this poll. His favorable dropped 5 points amongst democrats and his unfavorable grew 3 points amongst this group. Both gender groups are tightening their favorability of Senator Brown losing 5 points amongst women and 7 points amongst men. His overall favorability has dropped a few points across all regions and his unfavorable have increased a few points in all regions since the 8/21 poll.

10 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

Senator Brown

Favorable 54% 30% 89% 62% 52% 57% 57% 54% 59% 50% 54%

Unfavorable 34% 56% 4% 26% 34% 34% 32% 35% 29% 40% 33%

No Opinion 11% 13% 5% 10% 13% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11%

Never Heard Of 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2%

Democrat Republican Independent Female Male 18-29* 30-39* 40-49 50-59 60+ Subset is not significant* Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Metro Boston South Shore/Cape Friday 3pm Friday 6:30pm Saturday 11am Sunday 11:30am Landline Cell Phone

55% 53% 61% 46% 56%

32% 33% 29% 41% 33%

10% 13% 9% 13% 9%

2% 1% 1% 0% 2%

61% 52% 45% 57% 54% 54%

29% 36% 42% 30% 34% 35%

10% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10%

1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

Governor Mitt Romney   Governor Romney has a 40% favorable impression and a 55% unfavorable impression. His favorability amongst Republicans is 91% but amongst Democrats are at 85%. However he does have an even favorable to unfavorable opinion amongst independents (47% to 46%). 11 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

The Boston Metro region holds a 64% to 31% unfavorable impression while all other regions remain consistent. Time of calls influenced the impression of Governor Romney with the Friday afternoon calls having a split impression (47% to 48%) but Saturday morning voters held a 2 to 1 unfavorable (65%) to favorable (32%) impression. Since the 8/21/2012 poll, Governor Romney’s overall favorable/unfavorable have remained constant. There is a rallying of the base with a 10 point increase amongst Republicans. His impression amongst women has tightened from a 28 point negative to a 21 point more unfavorable to favorable impression. However, amongst men his favorable have dropped 3 points (46% to 43%) and his unfavorable have increased 4 points (48% to 52%)

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Governor Romney

Favorable 40% 11% 91% 47%

Unfavorable 55% 85% 5% 46%

No Opinion 5% 3% 3% 7%

Never Heard Of 0% 0% 0% 1%

Democrat Republican Independent

Female Male 18-29* 30-39* 40-49 50-59 60+ Subset is not significant* Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Metro Boston South Shore/Cape Friday 3pm Friday 6:30pm Saturday 11am Sunday 11:30am Landline Cell Phone

37% 43% 38% 39% 44% 36% 41%

58% 52% 60% 57% 49% 60% 53%

6% 5% 2% 4% 7% 4% 6%

1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

43% 42% 45% 31% 42% 47% 39% 32% 39% 39% 41%

52% 53% 50% 64% 52% 48% 56% 65% 50% 55% 55%

6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 3% 10% 6% 4%

0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%

President Barak Obama  President Obama holds a 56% favorable rating in the Commonwealth with a 40% unfavorable rating. His strength lies within the Democrat party with a 91% favorable to 8% unfavorable opinion.

13 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

Amongst Republicans this number flips to only 3% favorable impression and 96% unfavorable. Interestingly amongst Independents his Unfavorable rating jumps to 49% and his favorable drop to 45% The North Shore is the weakest area of support with nearly a 1 to 1 ratio (49% to 47%) but the President holds his strength in the metro Boston region with 69% favorable to only 27% unfavorable. Timing of the calls made a difference with only 48% favorable and 48% unfavorable on the Friday afternoon calls but then jumped to 59% favorable on Friday night, 65% favorable on Saturday morning and 54% favorable on Sunday Morning. President Obama has increased his favorability amongst voters by 3 points since the 8/21/2012 poll and lowered his unfavorable 2 points (42% to 40%) He has solidified his base of democrats increasing 8 points (83% to 91%) and tightened amongst independents by 3 points. His support in the North Shore has turned from a negative (40% favorable 56% unfavorable) to a positive (49% favorable to 47% unfavorable).

14 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

President Obama

Favorable 56% 91% 3% 45% 59% 53% 53% 57% 55% 58% 56%

Unfavorable 40% 8% 96% 49% 37% 44% 43% 39% 38% 38% 42%

No Opinion 4% 1% 0% 7% 4% 4% 4% 4% 8% 4% 3%

Never Heard Of 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Democrat Republican Independent Female Male 18-29* 30-39* 40-49 50-59 60+ Subset is not significant*

Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Metro Boston South Shore/Cape Friday 3pm Friday 6:30pm Saturday 11am Sunday 11:30am Landline Cell Phone

54% 52% 49% 69% 52%

40% 42% 47% 27% 46%

6% 6% 4% 4% 2%

0% 1% 0% 0% 0%

48% 59% 65% 54% 57% 55%

48% 36% 32% 44% 39% 42%

4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4%

0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Issue Matrix  The three most important issues facing the voters in Massachusetts were Jobs (28%) the Deficit (26%) and Healthcare (22%). For Democrats the top issue was Healthcare at 32% followed by Jobs (26%) and then the deficit (15%) 15 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9

Amongst Republicans the most important issue was the deficit (45%) followed by jobs (28%) and healthcare (14%) For independents, Jobs (31%) and the Deficit (30%) were the most important issues followed by Healthcare (18%) While Jobs continue to be the most important issue, the intensity has dropped 12 points since the 8/21/2012 poll and the deficit increased 5 points with healthcare being the clear 3rd issue with a 9 point increase.

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The Deficit 26% Democrat 15% Republican 45% Independent 30% Female Male 18-29* 30-39* 40-49 50-59 60+ Subset is not significant* Western Mass Central Mass North Shore Metro Boston South Shore/Cape Friday 3pm Friday 6:30pm Saturday 11am Sunday 11:30am Landline Cell Phone 23% 30% 30% 30% 30% 22% 27%

Gas Prices 4% 6% 2% 4% 3% 6% 2% 4% 5% 4% 4%

Abortion 7% 8% 4% 6% 9% 4% 4% 15% 3% 6% 7%

Healthcare Jobs 22% 32% 14% 18% 25% 19% 9% 17% 13% 22% 28% 28% 26% 28% 31% 29% 28% 32% 22% 34% 32% 25%

Cost of Equal Education Pay 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 9% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% 2% 3% 4% 1%

Other 7% 7% 4% 8% 6% 9% 15% 4% 10% 7% 6%

22% 28% 28% 23% 30%

6% 7% 3% 3% 6%

7% 6% 6% 6% 8%

29% 24% 21% 24% 18%

22% 24% 33% 30% 28%

2% 3% 5% 3% 3%

2% 4% 1% 3% 1%

10% 4% 5% 9% 6%

29% 28% 20% 27%

2% 6% 4% 6%

8% 5% 7% 6%

23% 25% 27% 10%

30% 23% 30% 34%

3% 3% 2% 7%

0% 3% 3% 0%

6% 7% 7% 10%

25% 29%

5% 4%

5% 10%

24% 18%

30% 26%

3% 4%

2% 1%

6% 9%

17 MA Statewide, September 7,8 and 9