To: From: Re: Date

:

Rob Zerban for Congress Campaign Team Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) Wisconsin Congressional District 1 Survey Results September 12, 2012

A recent surveyi shows Paul Ryan is not the overwhelming favorite in the 1st Congressional District race. Our poll, conducted the week before the Republican National Convention, shows Democrat Rob Zerban remains a credible challenger. Following Romney’s choice of Ryan as his running mate and several weeks of extensive local and national media coverage, Ryan is unable to crack the 50 percent threshold. As Figure 1 shows, after voters hear Zerban’s profile statement he is only eight points behind Ryan, the Libertarian candidate Keith Deschler receives four percent of the vote and 11 percent are undecided—a remarkably high number considering Ryan has served seven-terms in Congress and virtually all of the news surrounding his nomination prior to the Republican National Convention was positive. Figure 1: Vote for Congress After Zerban Profile Statement
Paul Ryan (Lean Ryan) Rob Zerban 3% 33% 6% 2% 2% 44%

Total Ryan 47% Total Zerban 39%

(Lean Zerban)

Keith Deschler
(Lean Deschler) Undecided
0%

Total Deschler 4%

11%
15% 30% 45% 60% 75%

In the weeks following this poll, Ryan’s speech at the Republican National Convention was severely criticized for inaccuracies and misleading statements by non-partisan organizations, including PolitiFact and a number of Republicans. More recently, the Gallup Poll and other national surveys have shown President Obama receiving a significant “bounce” from the Democratic National Convention, something that will help Democrats across the nation. As Zerban initiates a more active communications and outreach program over the next few weeks and voter attention toward the November election intensifies, we anticipate the race for the 1st Congressional District will tighten and it will become a very competitive campaign.
i

From August 21-23, 2012, FM3 conducted a telephone-based survey of 404 likely general election voters in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District. The sample included landline and cellular phone numbers. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. The margin of error for subgroups within the sample will be higher. Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100 percent.
2425 Colorado Avenue. Suite 180 Santa Monica, CA 90404 Phone: (310) 828-1183 Fax: (310) 453-6562 1999 Harrison Street Suite 1290 Oakland, CA 94612 Phone: (510) 451-9521 Fax: (510) 451-0384