You are on page 1of 12

A

M

O N T H L Y

P

O L L

C

O M P I L A T I O N

Volume 8, Issue 7 • September 2012

President Obama and his Predecessors Approach Reelection
The chart below shows how incumbent presidents were faring in the late summer or early fall of their election years. Barack Obama is in a weaker position on some important indicators now than most of his predecessors seeking reelection. His approval rating is close to that of George W. Bush in September 2004 and much higher than George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980. At the same time, many people today aren’t satisfied with the way things are going and don’t see the country as heading in the right direction. Those ratings are much lower than those facing George W. Bush in 2004, Bill Clinton in 1996, and Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Satisfied with the way things are going in the country Obama 2012 G.W. Bush 2004 Clinton 1996 G.H.W. Bush 1992 Reagan 1984 Carter 1979/1980 Nixon 1972 23% Country heading in the right direction 31% Job Consumer approval confidence 49% 73.6

41

41

52

85.4

41

41

60

94.7

45

23

39

75.6

48

61

57

100.9

12

20

37

73.7

N/A

35

56

95.2

Note: Obama: “satisfied” Gallup, August 2012; “right direction” ABC/Washington Post, August 2012; “job approval” Gallup, September 2012; “consumer confidence” August 2012. George W. Bush: “satisfied” Gallup, September 2004; “right direction” CBS/New York Times, September 2004;”job approval” Gallup, September 2004. Clinton: “satisfied” Gallup, August–September 1996; “right direction” CBS News, September 1996; “job approval” Gallup, September 1996. G.H.W. Bush: “satisfied” Gallup/CNN/Knight-Ridder, August–September 1996; “right direction” Los Angeles Times, August 1992; “job approval” Gallup, September 1992. Reagan: “satisfied” Gallup, September–October 1984; “right direction” Penn & Schoen, October 1984 (registered voters);“job approval” Gallup, September 1984. Carter: “satisfied” Gallup, July 1979; “right direction” Roper, February 1980; “job approval” Gallup, September 1980. Nixon: “right direction” Gallup, August 1972; “job approval” Gallup, June 1972; “consumer confidence” August 1972. All consumer confidence numbers taken from September of the election year from University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment unless otherwise noted. All questions asked of national adults unless otherwise noted.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

And the Winner Will Be?
The American public has a pretty good track record in forecasting the winner of presidential elections. In Gallup polls in June and October 2008, Americans predicted that Barack Obama would be elected. In two of three Gallup polls conducted in 2004, people thought George W. Bush would win. In four of five of Gallup’s polls in 2000, Americans predicted Bush would win. In the final question asked in mid-September 2000, they predicted an Al Gore victory. In August 1996, a large majority (69 percent) predicted Bill Clinton would defeat Bob Dole (24 percent). In two recent polls, majorities have said Obama will win.
Q: Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think . . . ? Will win the election in November Obama Romney 36 61% Q: Just your best guess, who do you think . . . ? Will win the presidential election Obama Romney 34 59%

Note: Sample is registered voters. In August, the responses were 63 and 33 percent, respectively. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corperation, September 2012.

Note: In July, those responses were 58 and 34 percent, respectively. In January, when ABC and the Post asked about Obama or “the Republican candidate,” 46 percent said Obama would win, and 49 percent the Republican. Source: ABC/Washington Post, August 2012.

Debating Debate Impact
In September 2008, before the presidential debates that year, Lydia Saad, one of Gallup’s chief analysts, wrote that there were “few instances in which the debates may have had a substantive impact on election outcomes. The two exceptions are 1960 and 2000, both very close elections in which even small changes could have determined who won. In two other contests—1976 and 2004—public preferences moved quite a bit around the debates, but the debates did not appear to alter the likely outcome.” Gallup reported in October 2008 that the public believed Barack Obama had won all three debates. The editors noted that polls conducted immediately after each debate or in the succeeding days since 1960 “have most often shown that the Democratic candidate has been viewed as the winner over the Republican candidate.” That doesn’t mean the debate winner goes on to win the election. In 2004, the public believed John Kerry won all three debates.
—————Position of the election winner————— before first debate after last debate (Gap between winning candidate and his opponent in percentage points) 1960 (Kennedy) 1976 (Carter) 1980 (Reagan) 1984 (Reagan) 1988 (GHW Bush) 1992 (Clinton) 1996 (Clinton) 2000 (GW Bush) 2004 (GW Bush) 2008 (Obama) -1 15 -3 17 8 18 19 -8 11 3 4 5 3 17 9 12 24 4 3 10

Note: There were no debates in 1964, 1968, and 1972. The 1980 post-debate results are likely voters. The numbers for 2008 are based on Gallup’s three-day rolling averages. Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of 2008.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

2

The Sources of Partisan Polarization
In June, the Pew Research Center released a study examining how attitudes had changed on 48 separate items over the past 25 years. The researchers noted that the way Americans think about things such as poverty, opportunity, business, unions, religion, civic duty, and foreign affairs is pretty much the same as it was in 1987. The “defining change,” Pew said, was not in overall beliefs, but in “how these beliefs are increasingly being sorted along partisan lines.” Partisans are more consistently liberal or conservative over a wide range of issues, especially those involving the role of government. Nearly all of the change in political values has occurred during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama. The partisan gap on the questions Pew asked is larger than the gaps between blacks and whites, those with low and high levels of education and income, and males and females. Pew’s data, shown at the end of this section, finds large differences between Republicans and Democrats on abortion, but small differences between men and women. Pew also notes that “in contrast to the widening partisan gap, the new survey finds neither growing class differences in fundamental political values, nor increasing class resentment . . . There are no indications of increasing hostility toward the rich and successful.” Other pollsters have been documenting these changes as well, and we report on some recent partisan cleavages and national results from a variety of pollsters below. Full question wording appears at the end of this section.
Government regulation of business does more harm than good (2) 41% 76 57
Source: Pew Research Center.

Democrats Republicans Natl. response

Government is usually wasteful and inefficient (1) 41% 77 59

Favor smaller govt. with fewer services (3) 30% 80 55
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation.

Source: Pew Research Center.

Agree, government controls too much of our daily lives (4)

Democrats Republicans Natl.

38%

People should take responsibility for their own lives and economic well-being and not expect other people to help (5) 62% 81 86 75

The government in Washington should do everything possible to improve the standard of living (6) 76% 26 52

60

Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation.

Democrats Republicans Natl. response

Federal government should regulate the release of greenhouse gases to reduce global warming (7) 87% 61 74

———Message for the federal government (8)——— Lend me a hand Leave me alone 59% Democrats 27% 15 Republicans 80 35
Source: Fox News.

Natl. response

54

Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation.

(continued on the next page)

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

3

(continued from the previous page)

Democrats Republicans Natl. response

Government should guarantee every citizen enough to eat and a place to sleep (9) 78% 36 59

It is the responsibility of government to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves (10) 75% 40 59
Source: Pew Research Center.

Source: Pew Research Center.

Democrats Republicans Natl. response

I am concerned the government is becoming too involved in health care (11) 37% 88 59

One of the big problems in this country is that we don’t give everyone an equal chance (12) 72% 29 52
Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation.

Source: Pew Research Center.

Abortion: A Partisan Chasm, Gender Consistency
—————————————————Responses of————————————————(13) Natl. Abortion should be Illegal in all/most cases Legal in all/most cases 41% 53 Dem. 30% 65 Rep. 57% 39 Men 43% 51 Women 40% 55

Questions: 1 and 2: Now I’m going to read you a series of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a number of things. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree . . . When something is run by the government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful . . . . Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. (Pew, April 2012); 3: Would you say you favor a smaller federal government with fewer services or a larger government with more services? (Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation, August 2012); 4, 5, and 6: Do you personally agree or disagree with the following statement: Government controls too much of our daily lives. . . . People should take responsibility for their own lives and economic well-being and not expect other people to help. . .Which of these views comes closest to your own: The government in Washington should do everything possible to improve the standard of living of all Americans or this is not government’s responsibility, each person should take care of themselves (Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation, August 2012); 7: Do you think the government should or should not regulate the release of greenhouse gases from sources like power plants, cars and factories in an effort to reduce global warming? (Pew, April 2012); 8: If you could send just one of the following two messages to the federal government right now, would it be lend me a hand or would it be “leave me alone.” (Fox, August 2012); 9, 10, and 11: Here is another series of statements on some different topics. The first one is . . . Do you agree . . . The government should guarantee every citizen enough to eat and a place to sleep. . . It is the responsibility of the government to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves . . . Here is another series of statements on some different topics: Do you completely agree . . . I am concerned about the government becoming too involved in health care (Pew, April 2012); 12: Do you personally agree or disagree with the following statement? One of the big problems in this country is that we don’t give everyone an equal chance. (Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation); 13: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, and illegal in all cases? (Pew, four surveys from 2011 and 2012 combined).

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS
Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Interns: Lee Evans, Wylie Galvin, Patrick Horan.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

4

VP Picks: Paul Ryan and Joe Biden
Conventional political wisdom holds that people vote for the top of the ticket and not the number two. Initial public reaction to vice presidential selections supports that conclusion as the ABC News/Washington Post surveys on the left show. In Gallup’s polling, initial reactions to Joe Biden were more favorable than early reactions to Paul Ryan. Biden’s unfavorable ratings have risen over the course of the Obama presidency.

Early Reactions
Makes no difference Romney’s selection of Ryan Obama’s choice of Biden McCain’s choice of Palin Kerry’s choice of Edwards Gore’s choice of Lieberman Bush’s choice of Cheney Dole’s choice of Kemp Bush’s choice of Quayle Dukakis’s choice of Bentsen Mondale’s choice of Ferraro 67% 66 55 66 73 78 75 72 73 49 More likely 16% 22 25 24 15 14 14 13 13 22 Less likely 15% 11 19 9 10 6 7 10 8 19

Reactions in Late August 2012
Q: I’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please tell me if you have a . . . Favorable opinion Unfavorable Don’t know Joe Biden 44% 47 3 Paul Ryan 41% 38 10

Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2012.

Q: Do you think _______ views on most issues are . . . ? Joe Biden’s views 36% 8 38 Paul Ryan’s views 7% 31 38

Too liberal Too conservative About right

Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, August 2012.

Q: Who do you think . . . ? Paul Ryan is the stronger vice presidential candidate Joe Biden is
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, August 2012.

Note: All points shown are registered voters, except for the Dukakis, G.H.W.Bush, and Gore choices, which are adults. All surveys shown here are taken close to the naming of the vice president. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of August 2012.

45% 39

Initial Reactions to Biden and Ryan
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Joe Biden Aug. 23, 2008 34% 15 51 Paul Ryan Aug. 12, 2012 25% 17 58

Q: Which vice presidential candidate would make you . . . ? Feel more comfortable if he had to step in and serve as president 45% 43 Feel more scared if he had to step in and serve as president 44% 42

Note: Mitt Romney announced his selection of Paul Ryan on August 11. Source: Gallup.

Joe Biden Paul Ryan

Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, August 2012.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

5

Changing Medicare
The Democratic Party has long had an advantage over the GOP on handling issues such as Social Security and Medicare. Although people are not very knowledgeable about the details, questions that discuss “changing” or “restructuring” these popular programs produce anxiety as the data from mid-to-late August polls here show.
Q: Do you feel that . . . ? Medicare needs a complete overhaul Major changes Minor modifications Pretty much OK the way it is
Note: Sample is registered voters Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2012.

18% 27 39 15

Q: As you may know, Medicare is the government program that provides health care to seniors and people with permanent disabilities. How much, if anything, have you heard about a proposal to change Medicare into a program that would give future participants a credit toward purchasing private health insurance coverage? August 2012 Have heard a lot about a program to change Medicare A little Nothing at all
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of August 2012.

May 2011 30% 42 28 28 20% 50

Q: [Asked of those who had heard a lot or a little] Do you happen to know who proposed this change to Medicare? Asked of those who had heard a lot or a little about the proposal to change Medicare Paul Ryan 23% Mitt Romney 13 Barack Obama 17 Don’t know/refused 44
Source: Pew Research Center, August 2012.

Q: Generally, do you favor or oppose this proposal? ——————By age—————— Natl. response Favor Oppose
Source: Pew Research Center, August 2012.

34% 49

18–49 38% 46

50–64 35% 49

65+ 24% 55

Q: Under Ryan’s Medicare plan, starting in 10 years people no longer would receive specific Medicare benefits when they turn 65. Instead they would receive a credit for money that they could use to buy insurance, either from the private market or from the government. How do you feel about this proposal to restructure Medicare? Support proposal to restructure Medicare Oppose
Source: ABC/Washington Post, August 2012.

33% 62
(continued on the next page)

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

6

(continued from the previous page)

Q: Which of the following statements do you agree with more? Mitt Romney who says this proposal is a good idea because it would strengthen Medicare and reduce government costs for Medicare by giving future seniors more control over their own health care dollars and a choice between traditional Medicare and a variety of private plans. Or Barack Obama who says this proposal is a bad idea because it would end Medicare as we know it by turning it into a voucher system giving seniors a set amount of money to pay for their health care costs and leaving them to personally cover costs above this amount. Agree more with Obama With Romney Not sure 50% 34 9

Note: The proposal was described in the previous question as a “proposal to change how Medicare would work so seniors being enrolled in the program ten years from now would be given a guaranteed payment some call a voucher from the federal government. Seniors would either purchase one of several government approved coverage plans from a private health insurance company or pay somewhat more to stay in traditional Medicare program. Fifteen percent said this was a good idea, 30 percent a bad idea, and 51 percent had no opinion. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2012.

Q: Which candidate would do a better job handling Medicare? (CBS) Q: Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling Medicare, the government health insurance program for seniors? (ABC/Washington Post) Q: Which presidential ticket do you trust to do a better job protecting Medicare and making sure it is there for future generations? (Fox) Q: Now I’m going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President? (CNN/Opinion Research Corporation) Q: Regardless of whom you support, who do you trust to do a better job of handling Medicare? (AP/GfK/Roper) Q: Who would you trust more to handle Social Security and Medicare? (Monmouth) Barack Obama Mitt Romney CBS 45% 44 ABC/WP 48% 43 Fox 46% 39 CNN/ORC 55% 42 AP/GfK/Roper Monmouth 49% 46% 41 39

Note: Sample for all surveys shown here is registered voters except for the AP/GfK/Roper survey which is adults. All responses here are mid-tolate August or early September.

Social Security Soundings
Q: How likely is it that . . .?

Extremely likely that you will be able to rely on Social Security benefits to provide income throughout your entire retirement Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not at all likely
Source: AP-GfK/Roper, August 2012.

Q: Regardless of whom you may support for president in 2012, who do you . . . ?

11% 18 30 19 18

Trust Barack Obama to do a better job of handling Social Security Trust Mitt Romney Neither/Don’t know
Source: AP-GfK/Roper, August 2012.

47% 44 9

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

7

Akin, Abortion, and the 2012 Election
The controversy over the remarks by Congressman (and Senate candidate) Todd Akin of Missouri thrust the issue of abortion into the news again. Nearly six in ten voters say they could vote for a candidate who disagrees with them on abortion. Most do not believe that Akin’s views reflect the views of most Republicans. Q: Is it possible you would ever vote for a candidate for president who does not share your views on abortion, or is this issue so important that you could not vote for a candidate who disagrees with you? Natl. response Could vote for a candidate who does not share your views on abortion Could not 57% 34 ———- Responses of———Rep. Dem. Ind. 68% 27 56% 37 50% 37

Q: How much have you heard or read about the controversy over comments made by Missouri Congressman Todd Akin regarding abortion and women who have been raped . . . ? Natl. response Heard a lot about the controversy Some Not much 35% 21 41 ———- Responses of———Rep. Dem. Ind. 28% 39% 37% 24 18 21 45 41 38

Q: Do you think the statements made by Congressman Akin regarding abortion and women who have been raped reflect the views of most Republicans, or not? Natl. response Congressman Akin’s views reflect the views of most Republicans Do not Don’t know/no answer
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: CBS, August 2012.

———- Responses of———Rep. Dem. Ind. 3% 71 26 26% 48 26 11% 60 29

13% 59 27

AEI’s Election Watch
Since 1982, AEI’s Election Watch team has providing thoughtful, up-to-the-minute analysis of presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections. We invite you to join Michael Barone, Karlyn Bowman, Henry Olsen and Norman Ornstein to discuss the 2012 contest. Learn more:

October 25, 2012 8:45 a.m.

November 8, 2012 Noon

Learn more: http://www.aei.org/events/2012/09/13/aei-election-watch-2012-how-close-is-this-race-really/

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

8

Occupy Wall Street: One Year Later
The pollsters haven’t asked many questions recently about the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement that made its debut a year ago on September 17 in Zuccotti Park in New York City. Around two in ten in recent polls identify with the movement or say they are supporters of it. OWS focused its attention on the influence of corporations, especially the financial sector, and on income inequality. Views of the banking and the financial sectors became more negative after the financial crisis in 2008. In June this year, Gallup reported that confidence in banks hit a record low. Only 21 percent had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in them. Similarly, high confidence in “big business” was also at 21 percent. As the Pew data below show, however, solid majorities believe Wall Street makes an important contribution to the economy and also that it cares only about making more money for itself. When Occupy Wall Street got started, more people said promoting economic growth was more important than reducing the income gap. This is still true today.

The Movement
Q: To what extent, if at all, do you . . . ? Personally identify strongly with Occupy Wall Street or We Are The 99% Identify with them Identify with them a little Do not identify with them
Source: Ipsos/Reuters, August 2012.

9% 9 27 48

Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as . . . . Positive feelings about the Occupy Wall Street movement Neutral Negative feelings
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, July 2012.

Q: Do you consider yourself a . . . ? Supporter of the Occupy Wall Street movement Not a supporter
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, July 2012.

22% 66

26% 20 40

Ambivalence About The Rich
Q: Do you think . . . ? The United States benefits from having a class of rich people Does not
Source: Gallup, May 2012.

Q: Do you think . . . ? 63% 34 It is still possible to start out poor in this country and become rich This is not possible
Source: CBS/New York Times, July 2012.

71% 27

Q: Now I’m going to read you a series of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a number of things. For each statement, please tell me if you . . . I admire people who get rich by working hard Disagree 88% 11 I admire people who are rich Disagree 27% 67

Source: Pew Research Center, April 2012.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

9

The Business Barometer
Q: Now I’m going to read you a series of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a number of things. For each statement, please tell me if you think . . . The strength of this country today is mostly based on the success of American business Disagree Wall Street makes an important contribution to the American economy Disagree Wall Street only cares for about making money for itself Disagree
Source: Pew Research Center, April 2012.

72% 25

58% 34

72% 22

The Importance of the Issue
Q: In the past ten years, do you happen to know if . . . ? The income gap between the rich and poor has gotten larger in the past ten years Gotten smaller Stayed about the same
Source: Pew Research Center, July 2012.

Q: Next, how important is it that the federal government in Washington enacts policies that attempt to do each of the following . . . ? Extremely/very important for the federal government in Washington to Grow and expand the economy Increase the equality of opportunity for people to get ahead if they want to Reduce the income and wealth gap between the rich and poor
Source: Gallup, Nov.–Dec. 2011.

65% 7 20

82%

Q: Do you think that . . . ? The fact that some people in the U.S. are rich and others are poor represents a problem that needs to be fixed Is an acceptable part of our economic system
Source: Gallup, Nov.–Dec. 2011.

70 46

45% 52

Q: Next, please tell me which of the following issues is . . . Most important issue Health care Economic growth The federal budget deficit Unemployment The gap between rich and poor Immigration policies
Source: Gallup/USA Today, June 2012.

20% 20 18 17 15 8

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

10

Back to School: Changing Educational Attainment
The data here from UCLA’s surveys of college freshmen tell two important stories. The first is how one generation surpasses the previous one in terms of educational attainment. In 1966, 3 percent of college freshmen said their mother had obtained a graduate degree. In 2011, nearly seven times that many, 20 percent, did. The number of fathers possessing a graduate degree also jumped from 12 percent to 24 percent over the same period. The second story, a much more recent development, shows young women surpassing young men in terms of their higher education expectations. In 1966, 45 percent of freshmen women expected to get a graduate degree compared to 62 percent of freshmen men. Today, 78 percent of women compared to 72 percent of men expect to get one.
Note: For the bottom chart, graduate degree was asked as a separate category. For the top question, graduate degree includes Masters, PhD, or other professional degrees. Source: Cooperative Institutional Research Program and Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, latest that of 2011.

90% 80% 70% 60% 62% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 45% Entering college women Entering college men who expect to obtain a graduate degree or higher 78% 73%

1966

1969

1972

1975

1078

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008 2008

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 12% 3% 1966 1969 1972 1975 1078 1981 1984 1987 Mother 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2011 College freshmen who report the highest level of education obtained by father was a graduate degree 24% 20%

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

2011

11

Sizing Up the Candidates
We present below a series of indicators from recent polls that ask Americans to evaluate Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on personal characteristics and on what might be called the “comfort factor.” Perhaps because he is better known and Americans feel more comfortable with him, Obama outpolls Romney on things such as having dinner with you in your home or being the captain of your ship in a storm. On many policy questions such as handling the nation’s economy, the candidates are more evenly matched.
Q: Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please tell me whether you think each one applies more to . . . Applies more to Obama 51% 51 50 Shares your values Has an optimistic view for the country’s future Is a strong and decisive leader Applies more to Romney 44% 41 44

Note: Not all categories shown. Sample is likely voters. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, September 2012.

Q: Do you think _______ will . . . ? Will say and do just about anything to get elected Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Note: Sample is likely voters. Source: Fox News, August 2012.

No, will not 57% 58 39% 37

Q: On a ship in a storm, who would you . . . ? Would rather have Obama as captain Romney Q: Who do you think . . . ? Obama would make a more loyal friend Romney would Q: Who would you . . . ? Prefer to have Obama take care of you if you were sick Romney Q: Who would you . . . ? Would rather invite Obama to dinner at your home Romney
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: ABC/Washington Post, September 2012.

46% 43

50% 36

49% 36

52% 33

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

202 .862.5800

www.aei.org

12