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//CHARTS

//CHARTS

//CHARTS

//CHARTS

//CHARTS

• • • •

Identify quantitative (relative) unit of measure Identify categorical streams Identify temporal scale, and critical moments Identify inputs, exchanges, and qualitative transformations (eg: phase/material shifts, singularities) • Construct organizational / branching system first, add quantitative / scalar information second

Lawrence Livermore Lab: US Energy Use, 2008 (top) Charles Joseph Minard: Napoleon’s 1812 invasion of Russia (bottom)

//SANKEY DIAGRAMS

//CRITICAL PATH METHOD/ PERT CHART

//STRATEGIC/TACTICAL PLANNING

EVENTS
SEVERITY ORIGIN

EVENTS

EVENTS
1. Catalogue EVENTS/PIVOT POINTS -- Like scenarios, based on Focal Issue -- Take into account frequency, repetitiveness 2. Calibrate LIKELIHOOD -- Take into account frequency, repetitiveness 3. Calibrate SEVERITY OF EFFECT -- Eg: duration, amplitude -- Are there secondary or chain effects? 4. Map onto axes -- Identify current state/Origin 5. Connect CAUSE-EFFECT NODES -- Are events linked?

LIKELIHOOD

EVENTS

//VULNERABILITY MAPPING

1. Identify FOCAL ISSUE
SCENARIO 1
INTERNAL VARIATION EXTERNAL VARIATION ORIGIN

SCENARIO 2

2. Identify DRIVING FORCES/SYSTEMS BOXES -- eg: social dynamics, economic issues, political, technological, logistical 3. Calibrate SYSTEM UNCERTAINTIES -- how do systems vary? -- what do data show? 4. Map uncertainties: KEY DIMENSIONS -- horizontal: internal agents -- vertical: external/environmental agents -- indicate areas of impossibility 5. Create a NARRATIVE THREAD for each quadrant

SCENARIO 3

SCENARIO 4

//SCENARIO PLANNING

• Identify morphogenetic mechanisms or catalytic triggers • Identify equilibrium where it exists • Identify self-stabilizing circuits (distinct from static equilibrium) • Track valence (positive or negative feedback)

Feedback diagram, Robert Taylor, US DOE, 2008

//CAUSAL LOOPS

• Track motion • Idenfity therbligs • Comparitive diagrams with therbligs, singularities in process • Identify constraints, limits to range of motion, bottlenecks, etc.

Frank Gilbreth: “Chronocyclographs,” Time & Motion Studies, 1920

//MANIFOLD/CHRONOCYCLOGRAPHS

• Identify freedom of motion • Manifold regions / orbitals

Etienne Jules Marey, Gull Wing Studies, 1886

//MANIFOLD/CHRONOCYCLOGRAPHS

Conrad Waddington, Epigenetic Landscape, 1953

//EPIGENESIS, MORPHOGENESIS

• Identify “marker” features • Define relational benchmarks (eg: xentith, cartesian coodinates, axes) • Track over time • Identify qualitative transformations/conversions

//FATE MAPS

EVENTS
SEVERITY ORIGIN

EVENTS
ST

LIKELIHOOD

EVENTS

//VARIABILITY MAPPING

AB Y IT IL

• Identify morphogenetic mechanisms or catalytic triggers • Identify bifurcations, cusps • Model as folds

Rene Thom: Archetypal Morphologies, Structural Stability & Morphogenesis, 1989

//MORPHOGENESIS & CATASTROPHE THEORY

Genrich Altshulter, Theory of Solving Inventor’s Problems (TRIZ), 1969

//TRIZ

• • • •

Categorize variables Identify agents / triggers Connect fields Create conditional expressions

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• Define performance criteria & constraining pressures (eg: damage) • Run simulation serially with differenct constraint parameters • Any selection sets? (eg: are outputs fed back in as inputs, or does system reset with each generation?) • Identify any optimization fronts or basins of attraction • Characterize sensitivity of the system

Paul Baran: On Distributed Networks, RAND Corporation 1964

//FITNESS & CONVERGENCE

• • • • •

Label axes Map relative intensities Take snapshots & explore alternative outcomes Where do singularities occur internally/locally? What thresholds exist, if any, for global characteristics?

Weather & cloud modeling techniques, NOAA

//CLOUD (EVENT) MODELING

• identify features such as skewness (assymmetry of probability distribution) and kurtosis (measure of peakedness) • locate event triggers within those 3D matrices

//CLOUD (EVENT) MODELING

//FATE MAP + SCENARIO PLANNING + CATASTROPHE

//FATE MAP + SCENARIO PLANNING + CATASTROPHE